Media has sort of been suggesting ~5-6+ years X 5M+ for Hyman. Hyman's career high is 41 points, and while he's had good production the last two years, both have been shorter seasons, and he's obviously benefited from playing with some pretty good talent. If you're slotting him next to a ~60 point centre, you should probably be expecting a ~35-40 point season from him.
A few comparisons from free agency last year.
- Toffoli was a similar age with similar historical production last year (better career highs), and he went for 4 years X 4.25M.
- Craig Smith, who has topped 50 points twice and generally has similar production to Hyman, but was a bit older, signed for 3 years X 3.1M.
- Not similar style players, but Granlund/Hoffman both signed for 3.75-4M.
- Only 2 forwards hit 5M+ in free agency, Taylor Hall and Dadanov, both with significantly higher production than Hyman.
This may be hard to believe, but the media tends to super hype our players leading to free agency, and it frankly is problematic because it leads to them expecting larger contracts than they probably otherwise deserve. Based on the contracts from last year, I'd say Hyman's best comparable is Toffoli. Sure, in the pre-covid era he probably would have landed himself ~5-6 years X 5M. But fair or not, the flat cap is here, and I think ~4 years X 4.25M is pretty fair.
Seattle is a wildcard that wasn't around last offseason, but I don't think anyone other than maybe Seattle would give Hyman a big contract.
