To hold our spot, or to not see a at least a semi-dramatic downturn, we probably need the following:
Boldy to be last year's Fiala, and Rossi to be last year's Boldy. Is it possible? Sure, but I'd bet on it being a year too early for both.
Dumba to rebound to what he was pre-injury. Is it possible? Sure, but he's had a few years to do it and hasn't yet, so...
Gustavsson to be as good or better than Talbot. Is it possible? Sure, but what is there in his numbers that would make you lean in that direction, aside from a 9 game stretch two years ago? This is actually the one that I would be the least surprised coming to fruition, since goalies are just weird.
And this is without seeing any notable slide from guys like Foligno, Hartman, Zuccarello, Spurgeon and Fleury AND this isn' taking into account Nashville getting better and Colorado and St. Louis probably (at the very least) staying the same.