Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

[Dr Jan Itor]

You’re missing one big piece in the equation, which is the roughly $15M in additional cap that the team is going to have available with almost an entirely full roster.

More than half of that is going to Faber.

 

[AKL]

More than half of that is going to Faber.

And half of what's left from that goes to Kaprizov

 

[DigitalBoldy]

And half of what's left from that goes to Kaprizov

Kaprizov is getting Zucc’s money.

I’m worried that Middleton will be extended in the $4.5-5M range. That would piss me right off. More so than any of Foligno/Hartman/Zucc. Why even draft dmen if they never get a shot?

 

[Spurgeon]

More than half of that is going to Faber.

I already ran the numbers. This is including the $8.5M Faber is getting.

I know it’s a wall of text:
Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

One thing I would agree with is that our window really will only be 4 years if you want to start trading 13th overall picks because they won't make an impact in the next four years.

The best way (probably) to try to keep your window open beyond that is to keep those when you get them so you actually have talent coming into the system when other players start to decline.

Farabee is a 14th overall pick, had the same even strength production as Boldy & is 24.

 

[AKL]

Kaprizov is getting Zucc’s money.

I’m worried that Middleton will be extended in the $4.5-5M range. That would piss me right off. More so than any of Foligno/Hartman/Zucc. Why even draft dmen if they never get a shot?

I'm fine with extending Middleton at maybe 3-3.7M. 4.5-5 is outrageous. But I wouldn't be surprised because Guerin isn't shy about giving guys he likes player friendly deals.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm fine with extending Middleton at maybe 3-3.7M. 4.5-5 is outrageous. But I wouldn't be surprised because Guerin isn't shy about giving guys he likes player friendly deals.

Middleton has every right to ask for it, based on the role he's played the last couple of years. One of the LD's in the AHL really needs to stand out this year.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I already ran the numbers. This is including the $8.5M Faber is getting.

I know it’s a wall of text:
Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

Ah, yes, with expected cap increases and other contracts coming off, it does add up.

I was kind of just allocating the buyout penalties coming off directly.

 

[57special]

TB is probably willing to deal Cernak to make room to re-sign Stamkos, if BG looking for some beef on D. He's signed for 7 more years at $5.2. I'm not sure if I'd trade #13 for him but I think he'd compliment Spurgeon well.

Cernak is a RHD. While he would be nice to have at a lower AAV, I sure don't want to give up assets(i.e. Ohgren) and then have to pay 5.2M that we don't have for him to put up 15 pts. We are fine with Spurgeon, Bogo, and Faber at RHD, for now. Can revisit after next season, when the cap penalties are gone, and taking on salary isn't such a squeeze.

 

[57special]

Middleton has every right to ask for it, based on the role he's played the last couple of years. One of the LD's in the AHL really needs to stand out this year.

Hunt did, last year, though it wasn't obvious till later in the year, when they had also picked up Chisholm. He, together with Goligoski, Merrill, and limited cap room, kept Hunt in the the minors.

I agree about Middleton. I think people have exaggerated ideas about how good a #4 Dman is in the NHL. Middleton provides physicality, toughness that the rest of the D corps doesn't have(I hold my breath every time Bogo gets physical, knowing his injury history), plays a decent, albeit plodding, defense, and had 25 points last year. That's a solid #4, and will be worth between 4-5M at least on the FA market in the summer of 2025, with the way the cap is going up.

 

[Spurgeon]

Hunt did, last year, though it wasn't obvious till later in the year, when they had also picked up Chisholm. He, together with Goligoski, Merrill, and limited cap room, kept Hunt in the the minors.

I agree about Middleton. I think people have exaggerated ideas about how good a #4 Dman is in the NHL. Middleton provides physicality, toughness that the rest of the D corps doesn't have(I hold my breath every time Bogo gets physical, knowing his injury history), plays a decent, albeit plodding, defense, and had 25 points last year. That's a solid #4, and will be worth between 4-5M at least on the FA market in the summer of 2025, with the way the cap is going up.

My issues with Middleton are that he can’t be expected to jump into a 1LD role if Brodin gets hurt. He’s been carried by better defensemen partners the entirety of his NHL career & there isn't a single attribute to his game that I would consider to be above average.

If we’re prepared to pay $4-5M for Middleton, then I think it’d be much better to spend an extra $2-3M to bring in someone that is closer to the level of Brodin.

Even though he’s a #4 defenseman, he’s going to be playing the same amount of time as a #3 defenseman. In my opinion, a 2LD is significantly more important to a team than a 2LW. However, we’re in the fortunate position where we’ll have enough cap to spend to improve both. We’re not going to accomplish that though by paying average players their UFA value.

Let’s just say we sign him to a $4.5M deal, what are we going to do with the remaining ~$11M next season with this roster already filled out?

Kap - Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Rossi - Hartman
Heidt - Yurov - Zucc
Foligno - Khus - Gaudreau

Brodin - Faber
Middleton - Spurgeon
Chisholm - Bogosian

Gus
Wall

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

My issues with Middleton are that he can’t be expected to jump into a 1LD role if Brodin gets hurt. He’s been carried by better defensemen partners the entirety of his NHL career & there isn't a single attribute to his game that I would consider to be above average.

If we’re prepared to pay $4-5M for Middleton, then I think it’d be much better to spend an extra $2-3M to bring in someone that is closer to the level of Brodin.

Even though he’s a #4 defenseman, he’s going to be playing the same amount of time as a #3 defenseman. In my opinion, a 2LD is significantly more important to a team than a 2LW. However, we’re in the fortunate position where we’ll have enough cap to spend to improve both. We’re not going to accomplish that though by paying average players their UFA value.

Let’s just say we sign him to a $4.5M deal, what are we going to do with the remaining ~$11M next season with this roster already filled out?

Kap - Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Rossi - Hartman
Heidt - Yurov - Zucc
Foligno - Khus - Gaudreau

Brodin - Faber
Middleton - Spurgeon
Chisholm - Bogosian

Gus
Wall

Pizza party?

 

[57special]

My issues with Middleton are that he can’t be expected to jump into a 1LD role if Brodin gets hurt. He’s been carried by better defensemen partners the entirety of his NHL career & there isn't a single attribute to his game that I would consider to be above average.

If we’re prepared to pay $4-5M for Middleton, then I think it’d be much better to spend an extra $2-3M to bring in someone that is closer to the level of Brodin.

Even though he’s a #4 defenseman, he’s going to be playing the same amount of time as a #3 defenseman. In my opinion, a 2LD is significantly more important to a team than a 2LW. However, we’re in the fortunate position where we’ll have enough cap to spend to improve both. We’re not going to accomplish that though by paying average players their UFA value.

Let’s just say we sign him to a $4.5M deal, what are we going to do with the remaining ~$11M next season with this roster already filled out?

Kap - Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Rossi - Hartman
Heidt - Yurov - Zucc
Foligno - Khus - Gaudreau

Brodin - Faber
Middleton - Spurgeon
Chisholm - Bogosian

Gus
Wall

Of course he's not a #1 LD. How many teams have backup #1 Dmen on their roster, or #1C's? Many on here wouldn't even call Brodin a #1D, just like they thought Koivu wasn't a #1C. It's a confusing way to look at a player.

Middleton is a #4. What makes him more valuable to this team than to some others, is that he has a skillset that no one else has on the D, or in our prospect pool. He is far tougher and more physical than any of our Dmen, btw, and well above NHL average in that regard. As a bonus, if we need someone to drop the gloves to protect a Faber/Kap then is one of the top non good fighters in the league. He was also 62nd in ES scoring for Dmen, which puts him in the top pairing category, btw, well above average.

I don't understand why re-upping him is an issue now? Why not wait till around Christmas, then see how he, and the other LHD's are playing. Maybe Chisholm will flame out, maybe Brodin will be injured, maybe Hunt/ROR/Lambos will take a big leap forward.

Middleton will be a bargain at 2.45M this year with the cap going up, and what's more, he provides something that this team needs. Paying him 4-5M x 4 starting in 25-26 when we have the cap space doesn't bother me at all, if no one else in our prospect pool steps up.

 

[AKL]

I don't think Middleton is a real #4 because I would love to find a guy to bump him down. But I also think he's better than a #5. But whatever he is, he just plays his game, and it meshes really well with a lot of good defensemen.

I've reconsidered my previous numbers and I would be okay with giving him up to 5x4M. 4.5M is still steep, but 5+ is where you lose me.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The biggest issue that the Wild is going to run into is they are going to run into the buzz saw that is Chicago, Dallas, possibly Utah and Colorado/Winnipeg. Dark horses is St. Louis AND Nashville if they get their act together. Like it's nice to compete and all, but treading water with holes in the boat vs a team that has scrapped their boat and rebuilding theirs...yeah.

 

[Minnewildsota]

The biggest issue that the Wild is going to run into is they are going to run into the buzz saw that is Chicago, Dallas, possibly Utah and Colorado/Winnipeg. Dark horses is St. Louis AND Nashville if they get their act together. Like it's nice to compete and all, but treading water with holes in the boat vs a team that has scrapped their boat and rebuilding theirs...yeah.

Yeah, the buzzsaw that is currently Chicago...

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

Draft is certainly creeping up. Scary hours here. Last year I was told they were going to go center no matter what. This year I’m told they’re going to go BPA, but with where the pool is at they’d like it to be a d man.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Yeah, the buzzsaw that is currently Chicago...

Speaking of Chicago, I’ve heard on several podcasts now that it’s less likely they take Demidov and the reasoning is that they don’t think Chicago wants their two top offensive forwards to be under 6’ tall. Those draft boards had Chicago taking 6’2” Levshunov at 2 and the 6’2” Chernyshov at 18.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Speaking of Chicago, I’ve heard on several podcasts now that it’s less likely they take Demidov and the reasoning is that they don’t think Chicago wants their two top offensive forwards to be under 6’ tall. Those draft boards had Chicago taking 6’2” Levshunov at 2 and the 6’2” Chernyshov at 18.

Levshunov also rounds out their future top 4 pretty nicely (potentially):

Korchinski - Levshunov
Vlasic - Rinzel

6'3" - 6'2"
6'6" - 6'5"

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Levshunov also rounds out their future top 4 pretty nicely (potentially):

Korchinski - Levshunov
Vlasic - Rinzel

6'3" - 6'2"
6'6" - 6'5"

That just irritates me so much lol

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

That just irritates me so much lol

They all still have to turn into something. Not there yet.

We'd have the same type of thing if we were picking 2nd, options galore solidify different positions/groups.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

There was reckless speculation on Locked On Wild yesterday that Guentzel might sign with the wild. Is that even possible?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

There was reckless speculation on Locked On Wild yesterday that Guentzel might sign with the wild. Is that even possible?

We have ~$6.2M in cap space. Chisholm would bring that down to ~$5.2M and another $1M buffer would bring it down to ~$4.2M

Guentzel is obviously not signing for $4.2M so there would have to be a significant trade. Gustavsson with no salary coming back would bring it up to ~$7M. As to if that gets it done, your guess is as good as mine.

 

[AKL]

There was reckless speculation on Locked On Wild yesterday that Guentzel might sign with the wild. Is that even possible?

Kaprizov-Ek-Boldy 21.25
Guentzel-Rossi-Hartman 4.86+?
Foligno-Gaudreau-Zuccarello 10.2
Ohgren-Khusnutdinov-Johansson 3.8
Shaw ?

Brodin-Faber 6.92
Middleton-Spurgeon 10
Chisholm-Bogosian 1.25+?
Merrill 1.2

Gustavsson 3.75
Fleury 2.5

Dead cap 14.7

E: I counted wrong

~6.5M to sign Chisholm, Guentzel

Trade Gustavsson to open up ~2.8M more

He'd probably have to take a bit of a discount. Think we could manage to give him 8M, 8.5M is pushing it against the cap

 

[AKL]

Not be a wet blanket but Guentzel is 30. Great player but not my preferred direction. Especially if he gets 8-9M longer term like I think he should.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

Just don’t see how the math works on a guentzel type

If there going to shell out big time money on a player, given where our current roster and prospect pools are, it may be prudent to get another d man. Spurgeon is an aging ? And Middleton while solid is probably more of a 5 that can play 4 or 3 if injuries happen (on a contender)