Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
And Rossi and Eriksson Ek compare very well this year. Not exactly a great year for Eriksson Ek, I guess.
Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24
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What stats are you looking at?
Rossi:
W/ Foligno: 57% CF% 53.17% SF% 55.56% GF% 60.83% xGF% 60% SCF%
W/O Foligno: 50.88 CF% 50.32% SF% 52.7% GF% 51.72 xGF% 51.29% SCF%
Spurgeon
Registered User
The $5M FA vet is where I think it makes a lot more sense for this team to trade for Farabee. He’s a young player locked up to a great value contract that has shown he can produce at 5v5.
Not even talking about moving Rossi either, I don’t think it makes any sense to move a 22 year old that has shown he’s already a fringe Top 6 player with even more upside.
This team doesn’t need the 13 OA pick that may be ready in 4 years. Our window is the next 4 years, which also conveniently aligns with some of those terrible extensions Guerin handcuffed himself with. It’s time to temporarily shift away from building the prospect pool & start bringing in NHL players that fit this roster.
This team needs contracts like Ek & Farabee that have the potential to provide significant surplus value. 1 and especially 2 year FA deals to 35 year old vets aren’t going to help this team in the short or long-term. FA is something I’d explore next offseason when we’ve had another look at how our prospects are developing.
I’d love to go into next season with something like this lineup:
Kap - Rossi/Ek - Zucc
Farabee - Ek/Rossi - Boldy
Ohgren - Khusnutdinov - Hartman
MoJo - Gaudreau - Foligno
Zucc, Gaudreau, Foligno, & MoJo are definitely players I’d rather have the extra $12M to reallocate differently. But gotta work with the position that Guerin put himself in.
You make a valid point, and I like the roster you proposed, but I also just love the NHL draft and hate to see us move out of 13 in a year with such a fun lottery group. Reminds me of the year we got Boldy - so many interesting talents available
BagHead
Registered User
All that does is make me really hope Foligno stays healthy next season. If they can keep those stats up, it would be nice to have someone that works that well with Rossi. That way you can pair them up and just change out the other wing as needed to mix things up a bit. I can imagine Ohgren being good on that line.
Kaprizov - Eriksson Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Rossi - Foligno
Contract Yearhansson - Khusnutdinov - Hartman
something - Gaudreau - something
It's not horrible... when healthy.
Ohgren - Rossi - Foligno
Contract Yearhansson - Khusnutdinov - Hartman
something - Gaudreau - something
It's not horrible... when healthy.
Wasted Talent
Registered User
- Aug 9, 2011
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Yeah, I am fine with keeping the #13 in this year's draft. I'll roll the dice with a Yakemchuk, Parekh, Helenius, Catton, Sennecke over a Farabee, any day. It's not like we are a Farabee away from being a Cup contender next year. We are going to be a fringe playoff team at best next year... that's it. 2025-26 is when it might make sense to take a run at things, assuming Brodin doesn't join Spurgeon, Zucc, Foligno, Gaudreau, Hartman(?)in decline. Then we can afford to pay a FA or two, or pick up someone in trade from a cap distressed team.
I just don't see the point in giving away some of our future trading for a player who will get us to finish 17th in the league rather than 12th.
Yes, I am pessimistic about next season.
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BagHead
Registered User
Spurgeon
Registered User
Farabee is locked up through the 27-28 season at $5M. He’s not a player im talking about acquiring to make a push this upcoming season.
He’s a player that I think gives the team cap flexibility to go out and acquire additional talent in future offseasons. Ek is someone I believe would cost a minimum of $8M to sign to a 5 year deal right now. That additional $2.75M in additional cap is a huge benefit.
I think a similar argument could be made for Farabee if he came in and put up a 30G 30A season. By the 26-27 season, $5M could be 5% of the cap. When I look at this team’s window, my opinion is that the optimal decision is to target current NHL players that are already playing at a level that meets the expectations of their contract.
It’s sort of similar to the Lightning acquiring Hagel, although his contract was obviously a complete bargain when they traded for him (and also why he was so costly).
On the other hand, I can also see the argument for wanting to keep the 13OA pick in a draft this is going to be defense heavy at the top. There is definitely the possibility of drafting another Boldy caliber player. However, it’s not a guarantee though & I think this team has more to benefit from trading for value contracts rather than drafting prospects & waiting for them to provide value on ELCs.
Well, the idea is to find guys that have similar play style to Foligno (grinder or puck possession). I love the idea of the Ohgren-Rossi combo. I think that would work really well. Anyone but Zucc and Johansson please.
Spurgeon
Registered User
Ohgren - Rossi - Hartman would be my ideal 3rd line. Foligno, Gaudreau, and Zucc just stick out as such poor extensions when you construct a 25-26 lineup.
Assuming the following:
Salary Cap: $92.5M
RFA signings:
Faber $8.5M AAV
Rossi $4M AAV
Wallstedt $2.5M AAV (tough one to estimate)
Khusnutdinov $2M AAV
Chisholm $1.25M AAV
ELCs:
Heidt $950K
Yurov $950K
Kap - Ek - Boldy
Heidt - Yurov - Zucc
Ohgren - Rossi - Hartman
Foligno - Khusnutdinov - Gaudreau
Brodin - Faber
Chisholm- Spurgeon
X - Bogosian
Gus
Wall
Cap Hit: $76.75M
Remaining Cap: $15.25M
Obviously will have more than enough to fill in the 3LD spots & extra skaters. But when you project out this season, you can really see where they could have made substantial additions with another $10M and 3 open forward spots. I also think this is one of the reasons that Guerin is even considering trading Rossi. He's blocked all of the spots for improvements with these idiotic NMC extensions.
The forward group looks really solid. I think Ohgren-Rossi-Hartman will be better than Heidt-Yurov-Zucc and should be flip flopped in your lineup. Not necessarily that Ohgren is better than Heidt or Rossi is better than Yurov, but Hartman will be significantly better than a 38 year old Zucc.
Ideally, we need to tinker with our defense a lot. We have two really soft players, Spurge and Brodin, in the top 4. That will not be great in the playoffs as we've seen for the last however many years. I'm warming up to the idea of picking Yakemchuk or another defenseman with size in the draft.
Faber will probably get $9M and Rossi probably $5M.
The NMCs are overblown. Hartman's NMC goes to a M-NTC after one year. Foligno's goes to a M-NTC after 2 years. Doesn't really matter if Zucc has a NMC or not. With Kaprizov being his best friend, he won't be traded out of fear of pissing Kaprizov off.
Wasted Talent
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- Aug 9, 2011
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Kind of interesting to hear that actual NHL teams are using the same cap tools as the fans, and Capitals presumably want to be the only ones with access to the tools to gain a competitive advantage.
Sucks for us, but I'm sure there will eventually be a replacement (until that gets bought out too)
Dr Jan Itor
Registered User
Had no idea puckpedia existed until today. Seems to be at least 80% or 85% there.
Spurgeon
Registered User
Lineup "order" really doesn't matter too much to me. I think all these forward lines have the ability to play effective hockey at 5v5 & there'd probably be several nights where the "3rd line" & "2nd line" are swapped in terms of TOI.
Agreed that the defense needs a huge improvement. I do think they need to get bigger/stronger, but I also think they need defenseman that can be effective at jumping up in the rush. During the Yeo years, this team's defense was fantastic at both ends of the ice. Suter, Brodin, Spurgeon, Scandella, and Dumba were such a solid Top 5. We've never come anywhere close to recreating that.
The biggest issue with the extensions is that they happened at all. I don't hate Zucc's game and Foligno has shown he can be effective at times, but we've seen this team fail endlessly in the playoffs with the same roster. With the dead cap coming off the books soon & a handful of ELCs needing spots, now would be the time to target big name UFAs (or trades). These extensions blocked us from doing anything meaningful this offseason & they'll limit our flexibility next offseason as well.
Let's just assume Zucc, Foligno, Fleury, and Gaudreau were never extended. Let's also assume they do trade for Farabee (portion of this trade could've been paid from whatever Zucc/Foligno got at TDL). If you don't like Farabee, just imagine he's a briefcase of $5M. This is our roster going into the upcoming season:
Kap - Ek - Boldy
Ohgren - Rossi - Hartman
Farabee - Heidt - X
Johansson - Khus - X
Brodin - Faber
Chisholm - Spurgeon
Middleton - Bogosian
Gus
Wall
Available cap: $12.75M
Notable UFAs:
Forwards: Reinhart, Guentzel, Tarasenko, Lindholm, Stephenson, Teravaninen, Toffoli, DeBrusk, Domi, Bertuzzi
Defense: Skjei, Montour, Dumba, Pesce, Ghost, some other meh defensemen (weak D year)
Think you could comfortably fit 2-3 of those players on this roster in some capacity & save some cap for the following offseason.
Following offseason
Forwards: Draisaitl, Rantanen, Marner, Konecny, Ehlers, Verhaeghe, Boeser, Sharangovich, Buchnevich
Defense: Ekblad, Slavin, Theodore, Chychrun, Lindell, Provorov, Gavrikov
DANOZ28
Registered User
well last year we would have made the playoffs if not for several injuries. IF we add a player like tarasenko or buchnevich or sharangovich or even boeser we should make the playoffs this year. (until yurov gets here) imo gus will have a bounce back year and be worth even more if we trade him at the next deadline.
- Dec 10, 2012
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If our window is only the next four years, you might as well rebuild now.
Realistically we probably only have a window if Kaprizov re-signs. And if Kaprizov re-signs, our window should be much longer than four years if you don't start trading pieces like Rossi and the 13th pick for UFA's.
Realistically our Cup window probably doesn't even start for four more years when Yurov, Faber, Boldy and Wallstedt are all much more experienced than they are now.
Our window doesn't even get unlocked for at least a few years. I'm at a loss for words for anyone who thinks it starts now. Cripes! We're still in cap hell this next season. And Yurov, Ohgren, Wally, Rossi, Faber, and a couple other kids are gonna need a few more years experience first. We may make the playoffs if we have fewer injuries, but there is no open window to win it all in the near future. I mean, crazy @#$! can happen, but the expectations are not there.
TB is probably willing to deal Cernak to make room to re-sign Stamkos, if BG looking for some beef on D. He's signed for 7 more years at $5.2. I'm not sure if I'd trade #13 for him but I think he'd compliment Spurgeon well.
Spurgeon
Registered User
I didn’t say it closed in 4 years, but our best chances are likely going to be over the next 4 years.
We’re in a very unique position where we’ve been able to remain competitive while holding onto $15M in dead cap. Being able to add $15M to a roster that is a season removed from 103 points is a very strong position to be in.
I think the best chance we have is going to be that first year the dead cap comes off the books if Guerin brings in the right players, which I’m still not confident he’ll be able to do.
I’m not advocating for pulling a Fletcher & wasting draft capital on rentals. However, I think it is time to shift to bringing in NHL players in exchange for draft picks.
If we wait for the young guys to reach Kaprizov’s current age, then I feel like we’re going to be repeating the same mantra 4 years from now that our window isn’t opened until our 2024 1st round pick is 4 years older.
- Dec 10, 2012
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What do you think "our window is the next 4 years" implies about our window? If you had genuinely meant that it extends beyond 4 years you probably would have said "our window is the next 10 years"
Let's agree to disagree that our best chances are the next four years. I don't even see how one would come to that conclusion with the roster we currently have and the prospects we hope will become something.
Spurgeon
Registered User
I had it written more clearly before the site refreshed in the middle of a comment for the 10th time.
What I was pretty much saying was that the impact from a draft pick isn’t going to be felt for roughly 4 years. I think the team’s best chances are going to come in the next 4 year window; I didn’t mean that we were going to fall off a cliff in year 5. I just think our best chances are going to come when Ek & Kaprizov are still in their prime rather than the backends of their career.
You’re missing one big piece in the equation, which is the roughly $15M in additional cap that the team is going to have available with almost an entirely full roster.
- Dec 10, 2012
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One thing I would agree with is that our window really will only be 4 years if you want to start trading 13th overall picks because they won't make an impact in the next four years.
The best way (probably) to try to keep your window open beyond that is to keep those when you get them so you actually have talent coming into the system when other players start to decline.
I like him, but the issue is he is right handed. So ideally he wouldn’t play next to Spurgeon. Ryan Lindgren could be a good LHD to look at in that mold. RFA for the cap strapped Rangers.
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