Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2023-24

[Circulartheory]

Realistically that could indicate a couple things

1) Guerin goes heavy this summer or next on trading prospects for established NHL roster players, guys like Rossi, Heidt, etc could be moved

2) Prospects could make the jump sooner than we expected. Right now we're likely looking at this lineup in 2025-26

3) Guerin has no clue what he's doing

I can't speak on the 2025 draft but I'm starting to cement my opinion that 2024 draft is going to below average - so if there's any inclination that 2026 will be a bit deeper, that could make logic of 24 vs 26 picks. 25 is unknown to me.

 

[TaLoN]

I can't speak on the 2025 draft but I'm starting to cement my opinion that 2024 draft is going to below average - so if there's any inclination that 2026 will be a bit deeper, that could make logic of 24 vs 26 picks. 25 is unknown to me.

By rounds 3-7 I think most drafts are pretty indistinguishable from each other.

Depth is usually defined in the 1st and 2nd round.

 

[MuckOG]

By rounds 3-7i think most drafts are pretty indistinguishable from each other.

Not to TSK they aren't.

 

[AKL]

I can't speak on the 2025 draft but I'm starting to cement my opinion that 2024 draft is going to below average - so if there's any inclination that 2026 will be a bit deeper, that could make logic of 24 vs 26 picks. 25 is unknown to me.

Yeah I don't think it's that deep. How many GM's do you know that stockpile mid round picks three drafts away? Then consider the situation we're in now, and will be in the 2025-26 season, and it makes more sense to be acquiring 2026 picks.

 

[AKL]

By rounds 3-7 I think most drafts are pretty indistinguishable from each other.

I tried saying this the other day. There are some drafts that might be genuinely deeper than others, but you're still talking about bottom sixers, journeyman AHL tweeners when you get to guys with the 65th most GP and beyond. And these guys aren't hard to find outside of the draft. Once you get to the 120th or 150th most GP in any given draft, you're looking at guys who don't ever make it.

Stockpiling 4th and 5th rounders in the future is not something you do if your plan is to make those picks. Guerin probably knows he'll be around that season, but that he may not get much time beyond that. Certainly not enough to see if his 4th rounder is going to contribute to his team.

Again, I think it's a sign that he's ready to turn up the gas on the current roster, whether that be the prospects he already has jumping up sooner than we maybe expect, or trading some of the futures for current pieces starting next season. He knows that 2025-26 season needs to be a big one for him.

 

[Sweetnut]

Does all this cleaning up in the roster mean he's thinking Öhgren is ready for the next step after his recent improvement?

 

[Minnewildsota]

Does all this cleaning up in the roster mean he's thinking Öhgren is ready for the next step after his recent improvement?

It's quite possible.

Ohgren, Knuts, possibly Yurov...

 

[AKL]

If your plan is to lean heavily on the prospects in two years, you probably want them to play in the NHL next year. What would Hynes do with a roster featuring all of Rossi, Khusnutdinov, Ohgren, Yurov and Heidt where he can only bury so many of them on the fourth line? Probably pull out all of his hai- oh...

 

[Circulartheory]

By rounds 3-7 I think most drafts are pretty indistinguishable from each other.

Depth is usually defined in the 1st and 2nd round.

Yeah I don't think it's that deep. How many GM's do you know that stockpile mid round picks three drafts away? Then consider the situation we're in now, and will be in the 2025-26 season, and it makes more sense to be acquiring 2026 picks.

Agreed with a bit a nuance: I generally get a sense "total crapshoot" after like you said the first two rounds but you can feel it as you work down the rankings that there is point your run out of good prospects, a cliff as you will, and you start drafting based on 1-2 skills and hope for the best that the rest works out. A sense of randomness comes into play

For the 2022 draft, at the end of the 2nd, names like Lamoureux, E. Salomonsson, R.Schaefer, Minten were still being discussed and I felt that was a deep draft, the cliff comes around mid 3rd. In 2024, the same type of prospects are discussed in late 1st/early 2nd so I do think there's a noticeable shift in tier and that that cliff comes much earlier.

But this is all speculation and opinion - just why I'm very comfortable trading this year picks for a later draft - though question is why not 2025 (don't know the strength of that draft yet).

 

[NHL1674]

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Agreed with a bit a nuance: I generally get a sense "total crapshoot" after like you said the first two rounds but you can feel it as you work down the rankings that there is point your run out of good prospects, a cliff as you will, and you start drafting based on 1-2 skills and hope for the best that the rest works out. A sense of randomness comes into play

For the 2022 draft, at the end of the 2nd, names like Lamoureux, E. Salomonsson, R.Schaefer, Minten were still being discussed and I felt that was a deep draft, the cliff comes around mid 3rd. In 2024, the same type of prospects are discussed in late 1st/early 2nd so I do think there's a noticeable shift in tier and that that cliff comes much earlier.

But this is all speculation and opinion - just why I'm very comfortable trading this year picks for a later draft - though question is why not 2025 (don't know the strength of that draft yet).

Purely off of feel and industry inklings, I don’t think 2025 is very highly thought of to this point. Top end 2026 is looking to be quite strong.

 

[TaLoN]

Agreed with a bit a nuance: I generally get a sense "total crapshoot" after like you said the first two rounds but you can feel it as you work down the rankings that there is point your run out of good prospects, a cliff as you will, and you start drafting based on 1-2 skills and hope for the best that the rest works out. A sense of randomness comes into play

For the 2022 draft, at the end of the 2nd, names like Lamoureux, E. Salomonsson, R.Schaefer, Minten were still being discussed and I felt that was a deep draft, the cliff comes around mid 3rd. In 2024, the same type of prospects are discussed in late 1st/early 2nd so I do think there's a noticeable shift in tier and that that cliff comes much earlier.

But this is all speculation and opinion - just why I'm very comfortable trading this year picks for a later draft - though question is why not 2025 (don't know the strength of that draft yet).

Well, considering all of these are expected to be late in their respective rounds,I think it's safe to say they're all past the cliff in any draft.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Well, considering all of these are expected to be late in their respective rounds,I think it's safe to say they're all past the cliff in any draft.

True BUT they can definitely be used alongside other picks to move up if we feel there's a player we must have.

 

[AKL]

Agreed with a bit a nuance: I generally get a sense "total crapshoot" after like you said the first two rounds but you can feel it as you work down the rankings that there is point your run out of good prospects, a cliff as you will, and you start drafting based on 1-2 skills and hope for the best that the rest works out. A sense of randomness comes into play

For the 2022 draft, at the end of the 2nd, names like Lamoureux, E. Salomonsson, R.Schaefer, Minten were still being discussed and I felt that was a deep draft, the cliff comes around mid 3rd. In 2024, the same type of prospects are discussed in late 1st/early 2nd so I do think there's a noticeable shift in tier and that that cliff comes much earlier.

But this is all speculation and opinion - just why I'm very comfortable trading this year picks for a later draft - though question is why not 2025 (don't know the strength of that draft yet).

I think my strongest opinion, regardless of the strength or depth of the 26 class, is that Guerin has no intention of making these picks in his ideal world l, instead he'll use them as capital to make trades at the 26 deadline.

 

[TaLoN]

True BUT they can definitely be used alongside other picks to move up if we feel there's a player we must have.

Guerin's seat will be too hot by then to worry about drafting players in 2026.

I agree with @AKL, these will be gone before that draft ever arrives.

 

[Circulartheory]

I think my strongest opinion, regardless of the strength or depth of the 26 class, is that Guerin has no intention of making these picks in his ideal world l, instead he'll use them as capital to make trades at the 26 deadline.

I mean in any case, its currency still and I'm all for more currency. And IMO we talking about 4th liners.

As mentioned before, I think the bigger issue is and I think there's 0 ppl disagreeing is the damn NMC/NTC clauses bc no matter how well you draft or how much trade capital you build up (which I love), you can't really use any of it if you stuck in unnmoveable cap hits...

 

[AKL]

I mean in any case, its currency still and I'm all for more currency. And IMO we talking about 4th liners.

As mentioned before, I think the bigger issue is and I think there's 0 ppl disagreeing is the damn NMC/NTC clauses bc no matter how well you draft or how much trade capital you build up (which I love), you can't really use any of it if you stuck in unnmoveable cap hits...

We're on the same page

 

[Shimoe]

Tell me you don't know what you are doing without telling me you don't know what you are doing. These trades were ill-advised at best. These 3 trades neither address our present or our future and Guerin (basically in his own words) admits we gave up a lot for nothing and we aren't there yet. As a season ticket holder, how am I supposed to feel about this?

 

[AKL]

Could we see Firstov in the NHL at some point this season if his team loses in the playoffs soon enough? Now is the time to give these guys tryouts.

 

[Sweetnut]

He should've just fired Deano after last year's debacle in the playoffs. The inabilty to make changes on the fly and adjust the tactics were full on display.
The start of this season was just more of the same.
With another coach, this season could've played out differently.

 

[NHL1674]

He should've just fired Deano after last year's debacle in the playoffs. The inabilty to make changes on the fly and adjust the tactics were full on display.
The start of this season was just more of the same.
With another coach, this season could've played out differently.

Still shaking my head that he didn't even conduct a proper search for a new coach. He had his guy picked out and that was it.

 

[MNRube]

Was watching highlights of our Vegas series from 2021.

We had Kap, JEE, Fiala, Zucc, Parise, Foligno, Greenway, Hartman up front for a solid and deep Top 9. Boldy on the cusp and Rossi in the system.

Soucy & Cole as solid 4/5 D behind Suter, Spurgeon & Brodin.

Greenway had a lazy play and the series was lost in game 7. That summer Guerin blew up the franchise with the buyouts.

I don’t really have a point but it’s interesting to think about how things would’ve turned out had we kept Parise & Suter.

 

[saywut]

Not overly disappointed with losing Dewar/Duhaime, but will pay attention to what they cost and how they perform the next 3-4 years compared to Foligno/Gaudreau who will occupy close to 25M total of cap space over that timeframe while being on the other side of 30(Guerin's preferred side). This year they've been fairly comparable, 14G vs 13G.

Foligno, Freddy, and First round pick Stramel, I call them the 3 Fs of 2023, should be resulting in a firing but it wont.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Tell me you don't know what you are doing without telling me you don't know what you are doing. These trades were ill-advised at best. These 3 trades neither address our present or our future and Guerin (basically in his own words) admits we gave up a lot for nothing and we aren't there yet. As a season ticket holder, how am I supposed to feel about this?

Marginal roster players get moved when you have disappointing seasons, way of the road in this league and in life. As a season ticket holder you should be looking toward the future, which these trades do address, open roster spots. Not to say that the team's current position was entirely predictable, but this season was expected to be a challenge. There are valid reasons to be optimistic in the coming seasons IMO. I know it doesn't make this one any less frustrating though.

Here, I will quote myself from last April, I underestimated Middleton and Rossi (props to both,) but otherwise fairly accurate on what to expect for this year:

Next season might be the toughest one IMO, our third pairing will be a problem and injury replacements will be an issue. Middleton will need to improve his game as well, he has not shown enough to be a top 4 lock on a competitive NHL team.

Gus' season will be hard to replicate, our team defense is always going to be better than most, but he was very hot for long stretches this year, there may be more adversity as a starter.

The forward situation is too soon to be clear on without knowing contract talks for the UFAs and RFAs, but its certainly clear, as always, that quality centers are a major need, and we cannot afford an established one. Rossi best case scenario becomes a contributor by the halfway point of next season, but its more likely he is still cooking and years away from being a difference maker. Boldy at Center could be an option if he is open to it and works real hard over the summer, but that seems a bit extreme and only shifts the need from Top 6 C to W with an ELC's worth of cap space to fill it.

Weird situation, the team is likely to take steps back, though there is room for internal development, it would take everything going right to be better than the last two year's teams though.

Still a fun team to watch when they are hot, and I personally like pretty much every player, they play hard and play the right way for the most part, with more creativity in the players than we have had in our previous 20 years of rosters. I will still enjoy watching them and look forward to seeing the continued growth of Kap, Boldy, Faber, JEE and Gus, but my personal expectations are taking a step back from playoffs to bubble team next season pending some Guerin off-season magic. We are also much more susceptible to key injuries completely tanking us due to the cap, it has only hurt us in the playoffs so far, but in the regular season it only takes one of our big contributors out to really destroy our win possibilities.

The prospects had good years this year and seems like players are in good positions for next year too, but not many seem ready to be immediate difference makers besides Faber. Hope that everyone continues to develop well and maybe we see some call ups from the young D men later on in the depth roles. Big years for Beckman and Walker, they will likely have opportunities if they earn them, but I personally do not see true difference makers in either, though maybe a bit more opportunity for Walker. ROR and Hunt will be in line for call ups if they are playing well, Lambos will probably need AHL development to be passable before being an option. My darkhorse player to get some looks by end of season is actually Spacek, I could see him adapting well to the pro-style and being a coaches recommendation, though still more likely he doesn't get consideration until the following season plus.

Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2022-23

I would let Johansson and Klingberg go, try to sign Nyquist, if he'll have us. Trade Foligno for sure, trade Zuccarello if you can (I'd retain money to get some value in return), and hire a coach who understands Fleury doesn't need to play 46 games (don't think you can trade him, he won't...

forums.hfboards.com

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I'm not saying that people have to agree with it, or that it's good, but I think Guerin's plan is pretty easy to identify.