Minnesota Wild General Discussion - 2022-23

[Wasted Talent]

Matt Dumba can score, skate, hit, a unique skill set for Wild D'men, and is a hell of a guy in the community.

I'll accept an occasional brain fart in exchange for that.

Dumba used to be able to score, that side of his game has been gone after the injury in 2018-19. Spurgeon has outscored him every season after that.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

First full off season in a while, guys are going to be healthier than they have been, that goes league wide though. Hope that Dumba can regain and maintain his health and take another step forward this year, from there, who knows. It is certainly an important year assessment wise, this will determine our future at Defense for the next 5+ years.

Anyone see Spurgeon on 3rd pair by the end of his contract if one of Faber or Addison take off? That would be pretty sick depth if we did keep a high performing Dumba. It would require the cap to increase drastically in the coming years to make any kind of sense, but it is a possibility that we could roll three extremely adept defensive pairings for the foreseeable future.

I think Dumba's future entirely depends on how he plays this season and how much he wants to play for the Wild; if he dominates, he will be out of our budget, if he struggles, he will just be let go/traded, if he plays decent and the team is mostly successful, I think he may get re-signed.

Its a contract year, I expect we will see a good season out of Dumba. If that happens, I doubt we will have resolution until next offseason.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Dumba used to be able to score, that side of his game has been gone after the injury in 2018-19. Spurgeon has outscored him every season after that.

Spurgeon has gotten way more offensive opportunity than Dumba the last two seasons.

 

[Wasted Talent]

Spurgeon has gotten way more offensive opportunity than Dumba the last two seasons.

That's probably true, but the point was that Dumba no longer stands out as a superior goalscorer compared to the rest of our D. That guy who scored 12 goals in 32 games is likely gone due to his injury.

In 2019-20, Suter, Spurgeon, Soucy and Hunt all had more goals than Dumba. Even Brodin had more goals than him in 2020-21.

 

[Wabit]

Using the performance of the team to rate the impact of the player is just not a statistically sound method. There are so many external factors that could explain variation in the team’s performance that it makes any conclusion flawed. What was the QOC of the teams they were playing, who else was injured on the team, how many B2B games were there, how many home games were there? You can go on and on, there’s way too much noise in that kind of analysis.

Measuring the actual performance of the player on the ice, the Goli-Spurgeon pairing performed better than the Brodin-Dumba pairing. What influences this? Offensive zone start time. All stats are flawed, but I think it’s pretty easy to come to a conclusion that Spurgeon’s performance is a lot more impressive with Goli than Dumba’s is with Brodin.

Dumba has not been the same defenseman since his injury. He’s nowhere near the defensive player that Spurgeon is and he doesn’t have the shot anymore to justify any offensive upside either. He’s a right-handed Scandella being propped up by his best friend.

Dumba missed games against:
AZ, BUF, CHI, CGY x 3, DAL, DET, EDM x 2, FLA, LA, MTL, NSH, OTT, PHI, SEA, SJS x 2, STL x 2, TOR, VAN, WIN x 2. So 12 Playoff teams and 13 non Playoff teams games missed. 14-9-2 was the record.

Spurgeon missed games against:
ANA, AZ x 2, BOS, CGY, CHI, COL, DAL, EDM, NJD x 2, STL, TB x 2, TOR, WIN, WSH.
So 10 Playoff teams and 7 non-Playoff teams games missed. 12-3-2 was the record.

Looks, to me, like they had the better competition when Spurgeon was out of the lineup.

Without Dumba MN gave up 4+ goals in 13 games (over half of the games he missed), and gave up 2 or less goals 6 games.

Without Spurgeon they gave up 4+ goals in 4 games, and 2 or less goals 9 games (over half of the games he missed).

Dumba and Brodin weren't out at the same time last year. Brodin and Spurgeon were. There were a few games where Brodin, Spurgeon, and one of Goli/Merrill were all out.

There was 2 games (WSH and ANA) when the d-corps consisted of Dumba, Kulikov, Merrill, Benn, Addison and Mermis. Somehow they won both of them.

FWIW MN was 48-19-6 (114.6p pace) with Brodin (missed 9 games).

 

[Wabit]

That's probably true, but the point was that Dumba no longer stands out as a superior goalscorer compared to the rest of our D. That guy who scored 12 goals in 32 games is likely gone due to his injury.

In 2019-20, Suter, Spurgeon, Soucy and Hunt all had more goals than Dumba. Even Brodin had more goals than him in 2020-21.

19-20 Dumba still looked like he was wasn't fully recovered physically from his injury and he got stuck in his own head. Nothing was right with his game.

Between his pec injury and nailing the LA player in the face his slapper is just a hazard to everyone. Even the Wild players want to be nowhere near it. Goalie screens are a lot less efficient and there is no chance for a tip/redirect. They are too busy trying to get out of the way to focus on getting those garbage/rebound goal. If the shot even gets on the net and not ending up as a self clear of the o-zone.

 

[Rossi Rat]

Goli, Goli, Goli, Goli rockin’ everywhere!

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Dumba has been mildly disappointing since he signed his deal, but is still a useful player. That is beside the point when it comes to whether or not he will be re-signed. The team simply can’t afford him going forward at the 6m + he is likely to demand.
Sourgeon can not be moved, for better it worse.

yet.

 

[ThatGuy22]

I think that was the other way around. Suter and Dumba played well together, but Brodin and Spurg didn't mesh well. Suter just didn't "enjoy" playing with Dumba though. Brodin does and they are very effective as a pair.

This is how I recall things also. Try the pair out again and see, but don't stick with it if it isn't working.

The hidden factor is money. Spurgeon is paid like a top pair d-man. Dumba is in a contract year and they can't afford to re-sign him if he's their 1RD.

That’s exactly how I remember it. Dumba sure had his moments next to Suter though

That's certainly a persuasive narrative around here, but it's not really backed up by any data put peoples perceptions.

With the giant acknowledgement that they've only once spent over 100 minutes(usually between 50 and 100) together in a single season, every season but 1 they've had a xGF of 55% to 65%, and usually an actual GF% in the same range.

2015-2016 is the lone exception, where in 27 minutes together they had a 35% xGF. With that low of minutes, it's likely they weren't really ever a "pairing" that season, so tough to know if it's like one player at the end of a shift, one just starting type of thing.

2018-2019 is the only time I would say they spent considerable minutes together with 363 minutes 5v5. They pulled a 57 xGF%, and 62 GF%.

Last year was the 2nd most minutes they've ever spent together with 95 minutes 5v5, they had 65 xGF% and 62 GF%.

Any empirical evidence suggests they'll be a pretty successful pair.

 

[ThatGuy22]

Dumba missed games against:
AZ, BUF, CHI, CGY x 3, DAL, DET, EDM x 2, FLA, LA, MTL, NSH, OTT, PHI, SEA, SJS x 2, STL x 2, TOR, VAN, WIN x 2. So 12 Playoff teams and 13 non Playoff teams games missed. 14-9-2 was the record.

Spurgeon missed games against:
ANA, AZ x 2, BOS, CGY, CHI, COL, DAL, EDM, NJD x 2, STL, TB x 2, TOR, WIN, WSH.
So 10 Playoff teams and 7 non-Playoff teams games missed. 12-3-2 was the record.

Looks, to me, like they had the better competition when Spurgeon was out of the lineup.

Without Dumba MN gave up 4+ goals in 13 games (over half of the games he missed), and gave up 2 or less goals 6 games.

Without Spurgeon they gave up 4+ goals in 4 games, and 2 or less goals 9 games (over half of the games he missed).

Dumba and Brodin weren't out at the same time last year. Brodin and Spurgeon were. There were a few games where Brodin, Spurgeon, and one of Goli/Merrill were all out.

There was 2 games (WSH and ANA) when the d-corps consisted of Dumba, Kulikov, Merrill, Benn, Addison and Mermis. Somehow they won both of them.

FWIW MN was 48-19-6 (114.6p pace) with Brodin (missed 9 games).

Again, there are a ridiculous amount of factors.

Spurgeon had two extended absences, the first the Wild were rolling scoring 4.5 goals a game and only lost 1 game in a SO to Tampa (Nov 21-Dec 7) and outscored their opponents 36 to 16.

The second was during/immediatly after the covid and it was much more even. Wild were 4-3 and scored 29 compared to 25.

Dumba's missed games were all after were all after the rescheduling of what would have been the Olympic break, when we as one of the teams hit hardest by covid cancellations were playing 4 games in 7 nights every week. HIs first stint allso came during some of our goaltendings worst play that led to trading for MAF.

I have trouble crediting/blaming Spurgeon or Dumba for any of those outside factors, that were huge factors.

 

[JiricekSaveUs]

I like Dumba’s game and I like him as a player and person outside of hockey, but I think he’s outliving his shelf-life in Minnesota right now. I think it would be beneficial for both parties to move on soon.

 

[MNRube]

I don’t see Addison or Dumba on the roster this time next year. We have Faber coming to play behind Spurgeon and then you have ROR, Hunt, Peart & Lambos who will be fighting for the bottom pair.

I’m in the camp that Addison is too small to be in the same unit as Spurgeon and Dumba is going to want more $ than we should be willing to pay given the young depth at the position. I’m very high on Faber and think he immediately steps into Top 4 this spring if we need him to

 

[AKL]

I don’t see Addison or Dumba on the roster this time next year. We have Faber coming to play behind Spurgeon and then you have ROR, Hunt, Peart & Lambos who will be fighting for the bottom pair.

None of these guys are RD. Addison can perfectly slot into a bottom pair PP specialist role as soon as this season. All those LD are still at least another year away, if not more. They're not competing with Addison.

 

[57special]

I like Dumba’s game and I like him as a player and person outside of hockey, but I think he’s outliving his shelf-life in Minnesota right now. I think it would be beneficial for both parties to move on soon.

Yeah, MN can't offer him what he can make as a FA. I think he likes it here, but if we are offering him only a 6/32M contract (can we?), and some team like SEA or EDM offers him 7/45-50, can he really afford to turn it down?

None of these guys are RD. Addison can perfectly slot into a bottom pair PP specialist role as soon as this season. All those LD are still at least another year away, if not more. They're not competing with Addison.

Exactly. Addison has a spot on this team if he can contribute on the PP, and play on the 3rd pairing as a puck mover paired with a meat and potatoes LHD.

Don't ask me how Goligoski fits into all of this.

 

[chchelseII]

Yeah, MN can't offer him what he can make as a FA. I think he likes it here, but if we are offering him only a 6/32M contract (can we?), and some team like SEA or EDM offers him 7/45-50, can he really afford to turn it down?


Exactly. Addison has a spot on this team if he can contribute on the PP, and play on the 3rd pairing as a puck mover paired with a meat and potatoes LHD.

Don't ask me how Goligoski fits into all of this.

Pitcher?

 

[MNRube]

I don’t love the fit of Jost as the short term Greenway replacement. He really struggles to win battles and that line is all about possession. We will see, maybe his quickness will be a good fit with JEE & Foligno.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I don’t love the fit of Jost as the short term Greenway replacement. He really struggles to win battles and that line is all about possession. We will see, maybe his quickness will be a good fit with JEE & Foligno.

according to deano he looked great there last year.

 

[f7ben]

according to deano he looked great there last year.

How many times do we have to listen to these idiots give some player who just doesn’t have it the old Rask mouth hug. Jost looked ineffective at best about everywhere he was plugged in last year aside from top 6 and even then he failed to capitalize. Either try him with Rossi and Boldy and see if something clicks or move on. Same with Steel. You cannot force a square peg into a round hole and they should quit trying.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

How many times do we have to listen to these idiots give some player who just doesn’t have it the old Rask mouth hug. Jost looked ineffective at best about everywhere he was plugged in last year aside from top 6 and even then he failed to capitalize. Either try him with Rossi and Boldy and see if something clicks or move on. Same with Steel. You cannot force a square peg into a round hole and they should quit trying.

always, never gonna get away from it. thats why anything said from a coach or gm to the media i ignore, i dont listen to post game interviews and all that i just get highlights through twitter and giggle. next time ill throw in a meme so my comment actually looks sarcastic.

 

[57special]

Duhaime, or especially, Hartman, would be far better fits on the JEE line than Jost. Hartman won't be there until we get a #1C, obviously.

I mean, the JEEF line just doesn't roll off the tongue.

I hope Jost turns a corner this season, but I'm not betting on it.

 

[BagHead]

How many times do we have to listen to these idiots give some player who just doesn’t have it the old Rask mouth hug. Jost looked ineffective at best about everywhere he was plugged in last year aside from top 6 and even then he failed to capitalize. Either try him with Rossi and Boldy and see if something clicks or move on. Same with Steel. You cannot force a square peg into a round hole and they should quit trying.

Boy, oh boy. That is a disturbing mental image.

Anyway, I'm fine with them trying him there. I'm fine with them trying just about anything that may work. Sometimes odd couples fit together.

 

[DigitalBoldy]

Boy, oh boy. That is a disturbing mental image.

Anyway, I'm fine with them trying him there. I'm fine with them trying just about anything that may work. Sometimes odd couples fit together.

Freddy Gaudreau is a perfect example of why they should at least try putting Steel/Jost/other in these spots. Sometimes they will surprise you.

 

[Wasted Talent]

Freddy Gaudreau is a perfect example of why they should at least try putting Steel/Jost/other in these spots. Sometimes they will surprise you.

More importantly, acquiring guys like Jost and Steel makes no sense if you aren't going to give them a proper chance to succeed.

 

[MNRube]

Have a feeling Dewar is going to separate himself from Jost, Duhaime and Steel over the course of the season and steal a Top 9 position. He plays with a ton of pace and he seems more versatile than the rest

 

[thestonedkoala]

Have a feeling Dewar is going to separate himself from Jost, Duhaime and Steel over the course of the season and steal a Top 9 position. He plays with a ton of pace and he seems more versatile than the rest

I feel like I've heard that Dewar is considered a swiss army knife of players.