Mike Bossy was a better goal scorer than Wayne Gretzky

[DitchMarner]

There's no formula or statistical metric that's going to tell you who the best goal scorers are....but of course a good goal scorer will be somebody who scores against good competition- how could it be otherwise?

A good goal scorer will score against good competition...and they'll be able to score in a variety of ways....and they'll score all the time, etc.

I am aware of that. What I am getting at (and where I think we will have to agree to disagree) is that you seem to believe that only goals scored against a certain level of team and/or defense really matter when evaluating goal scorers and that the rest are basically noise (and this seems to be your basis for saying Bossy was a better goal scorer than Gretzky despite having substantially inferior overall goal scoring numbers at his peak) and I don't see it that way. Goals scored against lesser opponents and weaker defenses help teams pick up points in the standings as well.

In this particular example: If Gretzky was actually bad or underwhelming at scoring against strong defenses/and or teams and did the vast majority of his goal scoring against shitty competition and in situations that are less meaningful, then I could certainly buy the argument that Bossy was a better goal scorer outright despite having inferior overall numbers. But as the numbers that some posters have presented indicate, he scored goals at a very high rate against strong defensive teams. He wasn't quite as prolific at scoring against the best six or so defensive teams as Bossy was, but to me that does not in and of itself make Bossy the better goal scorer. I personally would use the qualifier, "Bossy was the better goal scorer at scoring against the best defenses" instead of speaking in absolutes here, but like I said: We'll have to agree to disagree.

I also don't agree that being able to score in a variety of ways matters as long as a player is able to score at a high level. Having variety is nice, but at the end of the day it's simply about putting pucks in nets.

 

[NotASheep]

numbers

1977-78	New York Islanders	NHL	73	53	38	91	6	31	7	2	2	4	2
1978-79	New York Islanders	NHL	80	69	57	126	25	63	10	6	2	8	2
1979-80	New York Islanders	NHL	75	51	41	92	12	28	16	10	13	23	8
1980-81	New York Islanders	NHL	79	68	51	119	32	38	18	17	18	35	4
1981-82	New York Islanders	NHL	80	64	83	147	22	69	19	17	10	27	0
1982-83	New York Islanders	NHL	79	60	58	118	20	27	19	17	9	26	10
1983-84	New York Islanders	NHL	67	51	67	118	8	66	21	8	10	18	4
1984-85	New York Islanders	NHL	76	58	59	117	38	37	10	5	6	11	4
1985-86	New York Islanders	NHL	80	61	62	123	14	30	3	1	2	3	4
1986-87	New York Islanders	NHL	63	38	37	75	33	-8	6	2	3	5	0
	NHL Totals		752	573	553	1126	210		129	85	75	160	38

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

VS Gretz

1979-80	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	79	51	86	137	21	15	3	2	1	3	0
1980-81	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	55	109	164	28	41	9	7	14	21	4
1981-82	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	92	120	212	26	81	5	5	7	12	8
1982-83	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	71	125	196	59	60	16	12	26	38	4
1983-84	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	74	87	118	205	39	76	19	13	22	35	12
1984-85	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	73	135	208	52	98	18	17	30	47	4
1985-86	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	52	163	215	46	71	10	8	11	19	2
1986-87	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	79	62	121	183	28	70	21	5	29	34	6
1987-88	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	64	40	109	149	24	39	19	12	31	43	16
1988-89	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	78	54	114	168	26	15	11	5	17	22	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Gretz 637 vs 573 over the same time

 

[authentic]

So... Why did Gretzky have a better shooting percentage?

Don't elite playmaking forwards generally have a higher shooting % than elite goal scorers who are shoot first players?

 

[authentic]

numbers

1977-78	New York Islanders	NHL	73	53	38	91	6	31	7	2	2	4	2
1978-79	New York Islanders	NHL	80	69	57	126	25	63	10	6	2	8	2
1979-80	New York Islanders	NHL	75	51	41	92	12	28	16	10	13	23	8
1980-81	New York Islanders	NHL	79	68	51	119	32	38	18	17	18	35	4
1981-82	New York Islanders	NHL	80	64	83	147	22	69	19	17	10	27	0
1982-83	New York Islanders	NHL	79	60	58	118	20	27	19	17	9	26	10
1983-84	New York Islanders	NHL	67	51	67	118	8	66	21	8	10	18	4
1984-85	New York Islanders	NHL	76	58	59	117	38	37	10	5	6	11	4
1985-86	New York Islanders	NHL	80	61	62	123	14	30	3	1	2	3	4
1986-87	New York Islanders	NHL	63	38	37	75	33	-8	6	2	3	5	0
	NHL Totals		752	573	553	1126	210		129	85	75	160	38

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TFOOT] [/TFOOT]

VS Gretz

1979-80	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	79	51	86	137	21	15	3	2	1	3	0
1980-81	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	55	109	164	28	41	9	7	14	21	4
1981-82	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	92	120	212	26	81	5	5	7	12	8
1982-83	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	71	125	196	59	60	16	12	26	38	4
1983-84	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	74	87	118	205	39	76	19	13	22	35	12
1984-85	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	73	135	208	52	98	18	17	30	47	4
1985-86	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	80	52	163	215	46	71	10	8	11	19	2
1986-87	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	79	62	121	183	28	70	21	5	29	34	6
1987-88	Edmonton Oilers	NHL	64	40	109	149	24	39	19	12	31	43	16
1988-89	Los Angeles Kings	NHL	78	54	114	168	26	15	11	5	17	22	0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Gretz 637 vs 573 over the same time

If it's true that Gretzky generally played around 5 minutes more per game than Bossy that alone could be enough to put them on a similar level, the fact that Gretzky's edge comes from running up the score on inferior teams in a 4 year time frame in the early-mid 80s in the regular season is just the cherry on top (including 28 more empty net goals). The argument speaks for itself really.

I usually agree with the opposite end of the argument for Gretzky that assumes he could've scored more goals if he wanted given how drastically he annihilated him in assists, but since he consistently scored less against better teams and in higher stake contests I'm not sure how much weight that should hold.

It's a similar situation to Matthews vs. Ovechkin today, their early career goal scoring rates are eerily similar when you normalize for offensive opportunity, atleast in the regular season. On top of this he has defensive responsibilities as a center that Ovechkin doesn't have and has been above average to elite currently in his own end.

Objectively speaking there's not a really a flaw to the arguments OP presented, the tricky part is getting people to believe a player who scored more goals during roughly the same time frame while also obliterating him in assists isn't clearly the better goal scorer. And I can't say I fault people for not buying it even if I more or less agree he was on a simmlar level.

 

[archangel2]

If it's true that Gretzky generally played around 5 minutes more per game than Bossy that alone could be enough to put them on a similar level, the fact that Gretzky's edge comes from running up the score on inferior teams in a 4 year time frame in the early-mid 80s in the regular season is just the cherry on top (including 28 more empty net goals). The argument speaks for itself really.

I usually agree with the opposite end of the argument for Gretzky that assumes he could've scored more goals if he wanted given how drastically he annihilated him in assists, but since he consistently scored less against better teams and in higher stake contests I'm not sure how much weight that should hold.

It's a similar situation to Matthews vs. Ovechkin today, their early career goal scoring rates are eerily similar when you normalize for offensive opportunity, atleast in the regular season. On top of this he has defensive responsibilities as a center that Ovechkin doesn't have and has been above average to elite currently in his own end.

Objectively speaking there's not a really a flaw to the arguments OP presented, the tricky part is getting people to believe a player who scored more goals during roughly the same time frame while also obliterating him in assists isn't clearly the better goal scorer. And I can't say I fault people for not buying it even if I more or less agree he was on a simmlar level.

The Islanders and bossy also ran up the score like Gretz did

 

[authentic]

The Islanders and bossy also ran up the score like Gretz did

Okay, but not to the same extent. Read the OP again. Plus that's just a small portion of the overall argument anyway.

 

[The Panther]

Don't elite playmaking forwards generally have a higher shooting % than elite goal scorers who are shoot first players?

I have no idea. But I would assume that, as Bossy was the trigger-man on the PP and Gretzky wasn't, and as Gretzky shot a lot of distant slap-shots (and only occasionally went into the low-slot), that Bossy's shots were generally from closer-range than Gretzky's.

Anyway, I was responding to the suggestion that Bossy had the better shot. I don't really see evidence that he did.

 

[Amazinmets73]

Well, yes. Bossy is a pure goal scorer. Wayne is a playmaker.

 

[LeBlondeDemon10]

I have no idea. But I would assume that, as Bossy was the trigger-man on the PP and Gretzky wasn't, and as Gretzky shot a lot of distant slap-shots (and only occasionally went into the low-slot), that Bossy's shots were generally from closer-range than Gretzky's.

Anyway, I was responding to the suggestion that Bossy had the better shot. I don't really see evidence that he did.

Bossy may have had the quicker release but 99 had the better arsenal, including backhand and slapshot. In fact when it comes to those two shots he might be the best...top 5 at least.

 

[wetcoast]

Buffalo Sabres at Los Angeles Kings Box Score — March 12, 1994 | Hockey-Reference.com
0 points, -2

Los Angeles Kings at Buffalo Sabres Box Score — December 17, 1993 | Hockey-Reference.com
0 points, -1

New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres Box Score — December 13, 1996 | Hockey-Reference.com
2 assists, +1

Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers Box Score — April 1, 1997 | Hockey-Reference.com
0 points, +0

New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres Box Score — April 4, 1997 | Hockey-Reference.com
1 goals, -2

1 goals, 0 assists -2 in the 4 games in 97-98 season
0 points, -3 in the 98-99 season

That 2 goals, 2 assists, -9 in 12 games I think (I went manually and you can easily double check, used :
Gretzky's goals against Hasek, Roy, Brodeur..., has a reference for the games)

I wanted to like this post but I don't have that privilege right now so you will have to settle for the apology that the 16 year ATDer will be giving you after your correction here I guess.

 

[The Panther]

...but since [Gretzky] consistently scored less against better teams and in higher stake contests I'm not sure how much weight that should hold.

As I showed earlier in the thread, from 1980-81 through 1987-88, Gretzky scored at a pace of 56 goals per 80 games vs. the six top defensive clubs in the NHL. Overall during this same period, he scored at a 69-goal pace. So, it would be like this:

Gretzky '81 to '88 vs. top-six defence
56 goals per season
Gretzky '81 to '88 vs. rest of defence
73 goals per season

So, in this roughly peak-period, Gretzky's goal scoring (not his point production, btw) dropped by about 23%.

So, ignoring Bossy's stellar numbers here for a moment, Gretzky's goals results here are remarkably good: averaging 56 goals per season vs. the top defensive clubs for eight straight seasons is amazing. And, again, the top-six thing is just one I arbitrarily chose as it is slightly more than 1/4 of the League at the time. But let's change it up a bit, and do the top 2 clubs, which were Montreal and Philly. Gretzky scored 40 goals in 47 games against them, or a 68-goal pace -- i.e., exactly the same as his overall pace during this period. (Bossy, btw, scored at a 59-goal pace, well below Gretzky's, against these top-two defensive teams during his eight-year prime.) So, a lot of these opponent-focused things are kind of arbitrary.

Anyway, back to the top-six defensive opponents, since I set that standard. I'm wondering how Gretzky's 23% drop in goals compares to other top goal scorers? So, let's compare his results to (three players that come to mind) Michel Goulet, Steve Yzerman, and Mario Lemieux:

Goulet '81 to '88 overall:
51 goals per 80 games
Goulet '81 to '88 vs. top-six defence:
52-53 goals per 80 games
Goulet '81 to '88 vs. rest of defence:
51 goals per 80 games

So, Goulet scored goals at exactly the same rate vs. top defensive clubs (choosing, again, the top six somewhat arbitrarily) as against bottom fifteen. Full marks to Goulet!

Yzerman '87 to '94 overall:
51 goals per 80 games
Yzerman '87 to '94 vs. top-six defence:
45 goals per 80 games
Yzerman '87 to '94 vs. rest of defence:
53 goals per 80 games

So, Yzerman had a a 15% drop vs. top defense.

Lemieux '88 to '96 overall:
74 goals per 80 games
Lemieux '88 to '96 vs. top-six defence:
70 goals per 80 games
Lemieux '88 to '96 vs. rest of defence:
75 goals per 80 games

So, Mario had a 7% drop vs. top defense.


Now, these are just three players for comparison, but it's interesting to me that the wingers (Bossy and Goulet) have the least drop-off in goal production vs. top-six defences, while the centers have more. Would there be a consistent trend in hockey where centers generally score less of their goals vs. tougher defenses, while wingers continue to produce at comparable rates? (One would have to engage in far more studies than I have time to in order to find out.)

Anyway, back to Gretzky: We can see that his 23% fall off from top defences to 'rest of the League' is a bit higher than Yzerman's and certainly higher than Lemieux's. So, for whatever reasons, Gretzky was scoring less goals than his own standards against those top-six clubs. At the same time, however, he was also scoring more goals than (in this fairly random comparison) Yzerman and Goulet were, overall, vs. top defenses. I mean, a 56-goal average against top-six defences is incredible, and a 68-goal average against top-two defences is amazing. (Lemieux, btw, scored at either a 54 or a 71-goal pace vs. top-two defences, depending on whether you want to count Florida, whom he faced only five times, or Washington, whom he totally owned. Lemieux easily comes out on top among these players in pace vs. top-six defences overall, but that's not surprising as I think he has the strongest case for best goal-scorer ever.)

Then, it should be noted, as I think @ContrarianGoaltender showed us, that Bossy's goals-pace vs. top clubs did not falter at all, and perhaps even was better in some cases. (But the same can be said of Michel Goulet!) Bossy deserves huge credit for this, of course.


Finally, @authentic also make a point that Gretzky scored less "against higher stake opponents". Again, I'm not sure what he's basing this on. Seemingly not on playoffs? Gretzky had no trouble scoring goals against Montreal in '81, Philly in '85 (seven in a five games series), Calgary in '86, or Boston in '88 when the stakes were highest. Likewise, later vs. Van and Toronto in '93, and even with NYR in '97.


So, what's my conclusion in all this? It seems evident (at least based on these peak years of Gretzky's goal scoring) that he did score notably fewer goals against lesser defences (ignoring the top-two defences, against whom he excelled, which kind of skews the whole theory). However, he still scored a 56-goal pace against all six, which is steller to say the least.

Thus, it probably is fair to say -- at least goals-wise -- that Gretzky benefitted, in his prime years, from playing more games against lesser defences in the Smythe division and so on. (On the other hand, how much does team success play in this? The Oilers often had their worst results against Philly, Boston, and Washington in the 80s, and only played them three times a year, way out of time zone and often at the end of long road trips.)

Anyway, I think it is fair to say that Bossy scored at a bit higher pace than Gretzky (regular season, anyway) against the top defences (pace of 1 more goal every ten games played), but it is very incorrect to say that Gretzky didn't score at elite paces vs. those clubs, as he scored goals against top defences at a higher pace than Goulet and Yzerman and he owned clubs like Philly in the 80s.

Anyway, I've probably said enough in this thread. I'm all for praising Bossy, whom I think isn't getting enough respect lately. But these sorts of "goals in isolation" comparisons are really not on somehow when we're talking about playmaking centers (that includes Yzerman and Lemieux, if to slightly lesser degrees) compared to designated shooter-wingers (like Bossy, Goulet, Hull, etc.). But it is always an interesting topic!

 

[authentic]

As I showed earlier in the thread, from 1980-81 through 1987-88, Gretzky scored at a pace of 56 goals per 80 games vs. the six top defensive clubs in the NHL. Overall during this same period, he scored at a 69-goal pace. So, it would be like this:

Gretzky '81 to '88 vs. top-six defence
56 goals per season
Gretzky '81 to '88 vs. rest of defence
73 goals per season

So, in this roughly peak-period, Gretzky's goal scoring (not his point production, btw) dropped by about 23%.

So, ignoring Bossy's stellar numbers here for a moment, Gretzky's goals results here are remarkably good: averaging 56 goals per season vs. the top defensive clubs for eight straight seasons is amazing. And, again, the top-six thing is just one I arbitrarily chose as it is slightly more than 1/4 of the League at the time. But let's change it up a bit, and do the top 2 clubs, which were Montreal and Philly. Gretzky scored 40 goals in 47 games against them, or a 68-goal pace -- i.e., exactly the same as his overall pace during this period. (Bossy, btw, scored at a 59-goal pace, well below Gretzky's, against these top-two defensive teams during his eight-year prime.) So, a lot of these opponent-focused things are kind of arbitrary.

Anyway, back to the top-six defensive opponents, since I set that standard. I'm wondering how Gretzky's 23% drop in goals compares to other top goal scorers? So, let's compare his results to (three players that come to mind) Michel Goulet, Steve Yzerman, and Mario Lemieux:

Goulet '81 to '88 overall:
51 goals per 80 games
Goulet '81 to '88 vs. top-six defence:
52-53 goals per 80 games
Goulet '81 to '88 vs. rest of defence:
51 goals per 80 games

So, Goulet scored goals at exactly the same rate vs. top defensive clubs (choosing, again, the top six somewhat arbitrarily) as against bottom fifteen. Full marks to Goulet!

Yzerman '87 to '94 overall:
51 goals per 80 games
Yzerman '87 to '94 vs. top-six defence:
45 goals per 80 games
Yzerman '87 to '94 vs. rest of defence:
53 goals per 80 games

So, Yzerman had a a 15% drop vs. top defense.

Lemieux '88 to '96 overall:
74 goals per 80 games
Lemieux '88 to '96 vs. top-six defence:
70 goals per 80 games
Lemieux '88 to '96 vs. rest of defence:
75 goals per 80 games

So, Mario had a 7% drop vs. top defense.


Now, these are just three players for comparison, but it's interesting to me that the wingers (Bossy and Goulet) have the least drop-off in goal production vs. top-six defences, while the centers have more. Would there be a consistent trend in hockey where centers generally score less of their goals vs. tougher defenses, while wingers continue to produce at comparable rates? (One would have to engage in far more studies than I have time to in order to find out.)

Anyway, back to Gretzky: We can see that his 23% fall off from top defences to 'rest of the League' is a bit higher than Yzerman's and certainly higher than Lemieux's. So, for whatever reasons, Gretzky was scoring less goals than his own standards against those top-six clubs. At the same time, however, he was also scoring more goals than (in this fairly random comparison) Yzerman and Goulet were, overall, vs. top defenses. I mean, a 56-goal average against top-six defences is incredible, and a 68-goal average against top-two defences is amazing. (Lemieux, btw, scored at either a 54 or a 71-goal pace vs. top-two defences, depending on whether you want to count Florida, whom he faced only five times, or Washington, whom he totally owned. Lemieux easily comes out on top among these players in pace vs. top-six defences overall, but that's not surprising as I think he has the strongest case for best goal-scorer ever.)

Then, it should be noted, as I think @ContrarianGoaltender showed us, that Bossy's goals-pace vs. top clubs did not falter at all, and perhaps even was better in some cases. (But the same can be said of Michel Goulet!) Bossy deserves huge credit for this, of course.


Finally, @authentic also make a point that Gretzky scored less "against higher stake opponents". Again, I'm not sure what he's basing this on. Seemingly not on playoffs? Gretzky had no trouble scoring goals against Montreal in '81, Philly in '85 (seven in a five games series), Calgary in '86, or Boston in '88 when the stakes were highest. Likewise, later vs. Van and Toronto in '93, and even with NYR in '97.


So, what's my conclusion in all this? It seems evident (at least based on these peak years of Gretzky's goal scoring) that he did score notably fewer goals against lesser defences (ignoring the top-two defences, against whom he excelled, which kind of skews the whole theory). However, he still scored a 56-goal pace against all six, which is steller to say the least.

Thus, it probably is fair to say -- at least goals-wise -- that Gretzky benefitted, in his prime years, from playing more games against lesser defences in the Smythe division and so on. (On the other hand, how much does team success play in this? The Oilers often had their worst results against Philly, Boston, and Washington in the 80s, and only played them three times a year, way out of time zone and often at the end of long road trips.)

Anyway, I think it is fair to say that Bossy scored at a bit higher pace than Gretzky (regular season, anyway) against the top defences (pace of 1 more goal every ten games played), but it is very incorrect to say that Gretzky didn't score at elite paces vs. those clubs, as he scored goals against top defences at a higher pace than Goulet and Yzerman and he owned clubs like Philly in the 80s.

Anyway, I've probably said enough in this thread. I'm all for praising Bossy, whom I think isn't getting enough respect lately. But these sorts of "goals in isolation" comparisons are really not on somehow when we're talking about playmaking centers (that includes Yzerman and Lemieux, if to slightly lesser degrees) compared to designated shooter-wingers (like Bossy, Goulet, Hull, etc.). But it is always an interesting topic!

Just to be clear I wasn't implying he wasn't still scoring at elite levels, just less so than Bossy (that's what I gathered from OP), but I think you've demonstrated it's probably a negligible difference in the grand scheme of things. What I'm wondering now is if we have ice time estimates for Bossy and Gretzky and also if they could be broken up into rough estimates of distribution at ES/PP/PK/ 4 on 4, etc.? Because if Gretzky really did play 5+ more minutes per game (not sure if that extended to the playoffs as well) that has to be considered for sure.

 

[NigerianNightmare]

I think these players were better GOAL SCORERS than Gretzky:

- Bossy
- Mario Lemieux
- Brett Hull
- Ovechkin
- Pavel Bure


Was about to add Bernie Nicholls but.... (Just Kidding!)

 

[Overrated]

I have no idea. But I would assume that, as Bossy was the trigger-man on the PP and Gretzky wasn't, and as Gretzky shot a lot of distant slap-shots (and only occasionally went into the low-slot), that Bossy's shots were generally from closer-range than Gretzky's.

Anyway, I was responding to the suggestion that Bossy had the better shot. I don't really see evidence that he did.

Why don't people do more slap shots while moving? At first I thought it was the different goaltending but then I remembered guys like Bure who successfully did those just 20-25 years ago.

 

[paracord]

Only Lemieux was

I agree with this take. People will say Bossy and Ovechkin are better goal scorers than Gretzky. I doubt it. He was busy setting up goals when he wasn't scoring them. Only Lemieux was better. Gretzky and Lemieux were more dynamic goal scorers than either Bossy or Ovechkin.

 

[paracord]

So... Why did Gretzky have a better shooting percentage?

He didn't. Bossy's was better by several points. But I still think Gretzky was the better overall goal scorer.

 

[authentic]

I agree with this take. People will say Bossy and Ovechkin are better goal scorers than Gretzky. I doubt it. He was busy setting up goals when he wasn't scoring them. Only Lemieux was better. Gretzky and Lemieux were more dynamic goal scorers than either Bossy or Ovechkin.

I think peak for peak they are all close in ability, but Lemieux and Ovechkin proved they could remain elite against butterfly goaltenders and in a more defensive league at advanced ages so that has to count for something. I think based on pure talent Lemieux is first for sure though.

 

[authentic]

^ Of course that's how Ovechkin started his career but hockey has seen some changes in offensive/defensive style in his career and he's remained dominant at ES/PP, with and without elite playmakers, etc.

And I know some people will want to bring up Gretzky's 1997 playoffs where he had 10 goals and 10 assists in 15 games (which crazy enough with just 1 more game played is only a goal and point shy of Ovechkin's best playoff run in terms of points per game) but I think at that point in his career that was more of an abberation and the sample was too small.

 

[authentic]

Why don't people do more slap shots while moving? At first I thought it was the different goaltending but then I remembered guys like Bure who successfully did those just 20-25 years ago.

Ehlers does it. Usually not enough time and space is the main answer.

 

[The Panther]

I think peak for peak they are all close in ability, but Lemieux and Ovechkin proved they could remain elite against butterfly goaltenders and in a more defensive league at advanced ages so that has to count for something. I think based on pure talent Lemieux is first for sure though.

This is kind of a silly point, I think. You can't judge players' abilities when they're past their primes (i.e., Gretzky vs. 'butterfly' goaltenders). Gretzky's prime ended in September 1991, and butterfly goaltending, though extant of course, didn't really become commonplace until 1995-ish. Are you going to also lower the ranking of Howie Morenz, Maurice Richard, and Bobby Hull because they didn't face (much) butterfly goaltending?

Also, while I concur (with what I guess is your opinion) that Mario is the best goal-scorer ever, I disagree that he proved he could "remain elite against butterfly goaltenders and in a more defensive league". You're talking about Gretzky's 90s' playoff goals as a small sample size, but the entire evidence for Mario being an elite goal-scorer in the Dead-puck era is a grand total of 43 games. That strange mini-sample aside (playing with the League's best offensive player at the time), Mario scored 42 goals in 127 games, or a pace of 26 goals per 80 games when he was an old man (still great for his age, of course, but hardly "elite").

Don't get me wrong: There is no doubt that if Lemieux were young and strong in 2000-01, he'd have dominated NHL scoring (or at least matched Jagr, whom I think was better built for the DPE), but 43 regular season games doesn't prove anything. Note that, in 2000-01, once the playoffs started and the checking got tight, Mario's goal scoring dropped off quickly. Against Hasek and Brodeur in the playoffs, Mario put up 2 goals in 12 games.

But my point is that none of this matters. Players who peaked in 1950 or 1990 don't need to prove they could score against butterfly goaltenders to be considered the greatest, just as Ovechkin doesn't need to prove he could score 65 goals with a wooden stick.

 

[authentic]

This is kind of a silly point, I think. You can't judge players' abilities when they're past their primes (i.e., Gretzky vs. 'butterfly' goaltenders). Gretzky's prime ended in September 1991, and butterfly goaltending, though extant of course, didn't really become commonplace until 1995-ish. Are you going to also lower the ranking of Howie Morenz, Maurice Richard, and Bobby Hull because they didn't face (much) butterfly goaltending?

Also, while I concur (with what I guess is your opinion) that Mario is the best goal-scorer ever, I disagree that he proved he could "remain elite against butterfly goaltenders and in a more defensive league". You're talking about Gretzky's 90s' playoff goals as a small sample size, but the entire evidence for Mario being an elite goal-scorer in the Dead-puck era is a grand total of 43 games. That strange mini-sample aside (playing with the League's best offensive player at the time), Mario scored 42 goals in 127 games, or a pace of 26 goals per 80 games when he was an old man (still great for his age, of course, but hardly "elite").

Don't get me wrong: There is no doubt that if Lemieux were young and strong in 2000-01, he'd have dominated NHL scoring (or at least matched Jagr, whom I think was better built for the DPE), but 43 regular season games doesn't prove anything. Note that, in 2000-01, once the playoffs started and the checking got tight, Mario's goal scoring dropped off quickly. Against Hasek and Brodeur in the playoffs, Mario put up 2 goals in 12 games.

But my point is that none of this matters. Players who peaked in 1950 or 1990 don't need to prove they could score against butterfly goaltenders to be considered the greatest, just as Ovechkin doesn't need to prove he could score 65 goals with a wooden stick.

I see your point that they shouldn't need to prove that in the context of an all time ranking, except that's not the only part of the argument it's just the icing on the cake. Lemieux and Ovechkin aged better as goal scorers, and had peaks on similar levels (Lemieux also has the best playoff goal scoring peak ever with two playoff runs above a goal per game). Gretzky may have a good reason for his decline after 1991 but by 1987 which was before Lemieux's peak Lemieux was already the better goal scorer, and that was more or less evident in the Canada Cup and especially the subsequent seasons. I personally don't compare players from that far back when I think of the best players in my mind, although if I were to submit a legitimate all time list I would include them based on a reasonable ranking of how they did against their peers while trying to take the competition they faced into account.

One small point I'll add is that 1996-97 was considered the transition to the dead puck era seasons and Lemieux still scored 50 in 72 games, but you're correct that he couldn't sustain that level of scoring in his comeback and I agree that the difference between him and Jagr would've been smaller in the dead puck era, just as it would've been with Gretzky.

 

[JackSlater]

This topic sort of reminds me of something I looked into a few years ago. When it comes to Gretzky and Bossy, I do believe that how they compared in goal scoring in one era would probably not look the same in another era. Change the context that players play in and results may be different. The example I looked at before was not one of different eras but different leagues. I think that we can all agree that Ilya Kovalchuk was a better NHL goal scorer than Nigel Dawes was. It's worth noting however that Nigel Dawes was a better goal scorer in the KHL than Kovalchuk was. This is looking only in the seven KHL seasons in which they both played.

Dawes regular season: 203 goals in 361 games, .56 goals per game. 33.7 goals per 60 game season.

Kovalchuk regular season: 143 goals in 314 games, .47 goals per game. 28.2 goals per 60 game season.

Dawes playoffs: 23 goals in 45 games, .51 goals per game.

Kovalchuk playoffs: 27 goals in 93 games, .29 goals per game.

For comparison sake, Dawes is nearly two years younger than Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk was on the team that finished higher in the standings 6/7 times and was on the higher scoring team 5/7 times. I do not think that the sample is really inaccurate here due to distribution either, as Dawes was pretty consistent in outscoring Kovalchuk:

Dawes scored more goals than Kovalchuk in 7/7 KHL seasons in which they both played.

Dawes had a higher GPG in 6/7 KHL seasons in which they both played.

On paper, Dawes looks like the clearly superior goal scorer, at least in the KHL. Maybe Kovalchuk just wasn't trying while Dawes was going all out (over a sample of 300+ games) or the 22 month age difference was insurmountable for Kovalchuk, but I doubt it. I don't believe that Dawes was a better goal scorer than Kovalchuk however, and I do not think that their NHL results over the same seven seasons would have looked anything like that. Perhaps this has nothing to do with Gretzky and Bossy, but I do think that someone who is more effective at scoring goals in one context may not be more effective in another. Gretzky and Bossy played in the NHL of the early to mid 80s, and in that span Gretzky outscored Bossy fairly consistently. I do think that it is close enough that we can entertain the idea that perhaps in another environment (tighter checking, or Bossy playing on a more run and gun team) Bossy may have outscored Gretzky in terms of goals, and from the information presented in the thread that seems like a reasonable possibility. Finally, in case there is any confusion, I am not making any sort of argument that Gretzky/Bossy is anywhere equivalent to Dawes/Kovalchuk. It is just an example that was in my mind from a few years ago (though I had to update it after Kovalchuk played in the 2021 season).

For fun, here are the NHL results for Dawes and Kovalchuk in the 5 NHL seasons where their careers overlapped...

Dawes: 39 goals in 212 games, for .18 goals per game. 15.0 goals per 82 game season.

Kovalchuk: 209 goals in 397 games, for .53 goals per game. 43.2 goals per 82 game season.

 

[ContrarianGoaltender]

I do really like your approach to making arguments. A lot of people on this site (and on the internet in general) aren't nearly as good at going this in-depth and bringing to light things to support their claims.

Certainly I can entertain some of these ideas.

That said: Isn't it possible to apply similar hypotheticals to some of the other notable goal scorers in history?

This point has been brought up, but what if Gretzky himself had focused more on scoring goals and less on playmaking? What could some of his goal scoring outputs look like in this case? What about Mario? He was a natural and gifted goal scorer. What if his puck skills hadn't been quite as good and he had focused more on shooting and trying to score goals? What if Pavel Bure had played with more talent and an elite playmaker during his time in FLA? Could he have approached 70 goals in the Dead Puck Era?

I am willing to entertain any and all hypotheticals, and fully agree that we should do the same for everyone. I do think that Bure would have benefitted from playing with more elite talent during his career. At the same time, he was also getting tons of ice time in Florida, which would not have been the case on an elite team with more depth (such as Bossy's Islanders, or contenders from that era like the Wings/Stars/Devils). Not quite sure what the net impact would be, but I'm on board with Bure also being underrated by the raw numbers, sure.

As for Mario and Wayne, that depends on how you evaluate goal scoring. Of course they could have scored more goals if they decided to shoot more, but I don't think that simple fact necessarily makes them better goal scorers, rather than merely reflecting the fact that they were unparalleled offensive players.

Also, as far as volume shooting is concerned: I know the ability to put a lot of pucks on net doesn't sound as "sexy" as being able to pick corners with a high degree of accuracy, but shot volume is also an integral part of goal scoring. Your post illustrates that Ovechkin is a shot volume beast and obviously that has had a lot to do with his success. Obviously in recent years WSH has catered to him and tried to maximize his ability to put pucks in the net, but when he was younger and at his peak, the guy was able to generate a high volume of shots because of his individual skills. If peak Bossy wasn't as explosive a skater or as good at carrying the puck through the neutral zone and then firing it on net, aren't those inherent shortcomings that he had in comparison to a guy like Ovechkin? There is more to firing a ton of pucks on net than simply wanting and trying to do so. While Bossy's actual shooting abilities were outstanding, maybe some of the other aspects of his game prevented him from being a more prolific goal scorer. Maybe it wasn't simply a matter of not caring or trying as hard to pad his stats as some others did.

I don't see much evidence that indicates Bossy was not elite in his ability to generate shots. Is there anything on video or in the scouting reports posted by @overpass that would suggest any limitations? To me, when somebody can score in a variety of ways and is unanimously praised by all of his contemporaries for his standout release and shot accuracy, that's clearly someone capable of putting a lot of pucks on net.

The stats also seem to back this up. Not only is Bossy an outlier compared to his historical comparables in terms of shots (as I showed in my last post), he also had an off-the-charts shooting percentage throughout his entire career (21.2%). It's very difficult to rank that high relative to the league if you're trying to shoot from everywhere.

Secondly, I think that 40 game sample from 1980-81 makes a strong case on its own. Do you think any other all-time great goal scorer could have boosted their shot rate by nearly 60% over a half-season of play? Guys like Ovechkin or Bobby Hull had no chance of doing that, they already had huge ice times and were taking a high percentage of their team's PP shots so there wasn't any room left for improvement. In contrast Bossy had a major increase that lined up exactly with the period he was most focused on goal scoring, which more or less proves he wasn't even close to optimizing his shot volume on the regular.

The final evidence would be the on-ice goal numbers and what they suggest about Bossy's ice time. For example, let's compare the peak goal scoring seasons for Bossy (1978-79) and Gretzky (1981-82). Here are the on-ice even strength goals for the forwards on each team, extrapolated over the entire season (with on-ice shorthanded goals estimated and removed):

Rank	New York	GP	PGF	ESGF/80	ESGA/80	Tot ESG/80	% of Tm ESG	Edmonton	GP	PGF	ESGF/80	ESGA/80	Tot ESG/80	% of Tm ESG
1	Trottier	76	66	129	46	175	41%	Gretzky	80	76	181	102	283	52%
2	Bossy	80	70	104	38	142	34%	Anderson	80	51	123	75	199	37%
3	Tonelli	73	12	83	50	134	32%	Lumley	66	21	104	87	192	36%
4	Gillies	75	57	97	33	130	31%	Messier	78	32	103	82	185	34%
5	Nystrom	78	4	65	46	112	26%	Kurri	71	26	105	63	167	31%
6	Harris	80	5	66	41	107	25%	Hagman	72	22	76	61	138	26%
7	Bourne	80	16	67	37	104	25%	Callighen	46	9	78	47	125	23%
8	Merrick	75	4	58	44	101	24%	Hunter	63	7	79	40	119	22%
9	Howatt	75	1	51	45	96	23%	Hughes	68	6	66	44	110	20%
10	Kaszycki	71	6	45	37	82	19%	Semenko	59	12	45	34	78	15%
11	Westfall	55	0	30	36	66	16%	Unger	46	4	46	32	78	14%
12	Henning	73	1	35	25	60	14%	Weir	51	2	26	33	59	11%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Of course, these stats should be interpreted under the assumption that the top lines were more efficient per minute offensively while on the ice than other lines. The Oilers had a clear top 6, with piles of extra offensive opportunities for Gretzky, while the Islanders ran a more balanced top 9, occasionally double-shifting Trottier but rarely anyone else. The result is that Bossy's ES ice time was probably similar to that of a second-liner in Edmonton. The Islanders tended to have a pretty even ESGA distribution across their top three lines throughout Bossy's career, including in the playoffs, further illustrating how Al Arbour preferred spreading out the ice time rather than riding his big guns.

These could be some of the reasons why Bossy was in down in the pack when it came to shot volume in his own era. It seems probable that taking only 7% more shots per game than John Ogrodnick was not exactly scraping the ceiling for one of the greatest shooters in NHL history:

Shots per Game Leaders, 1977-78 to 1986-87:

Player	GP	S	S/GP
Dionne	775	3192	4.12
Gretzky	632	2581	4.08
Gartner	622	2335	3.75
Hawerchuk	479	1752	3.66
Bourque	580	2107	3.63
Bossy	752	2707	3.60
Barber	527	1846	3.50
Larson	773	2636	3.41
McDonald	711	2423	3.41
Propp	599	2035	3.40
Ogrodnick	571	1914	3.35
Sittler	593	1983	3.34

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

I used the top-3 in the league as a benchmark earlier, so let's run a little hypothetical and assume Arbour loosened up Bossy's deployment a bit to the point where his shots per game rate each season was equivalent to the number that would rank him third over an entire season (while accounting for Bossy's missed games, which makes Bossy's revised shot rate the 3rd ranked shot total in the NHL that year / 80 x Bossy's GP). Again, that's nothing particularly special, it's just the minimum standard that pretty much everyone else in the Top 10 goal scorers discussion was routinely achieving during their goal scoring primes.

I'm then going to use Bossy's actual shooting percentage each year to calculate his estimated goals. I can see the objection that this is too generous because of the typical tradeoff between quantity and quality when it comes to shooting, but I'd point out that we've already seen that Bossy's production held up well against the top teams, which means the extra shots are likely to be disproportionately against the worst defences and goalies. It's also not really that much of an increase in shots (+9%). Bossy's revised numbers would give him a career average of 3.94 shots per game. To put that into context, that's still not even within 1 shot per game of Bobby Hull's career mark, or Ovechkin over his first dozen NHL seasons, or Brett Hull's 5 year peak. It's actually only just slightly more trigger-happy than prime Mike Gartner (who from 1980-81 to 1987-88 averaged 3.88 shots per game).

Hypothetical Bossy Career With Top-3 Shot Production:

Year	GP	G	S	3rd in S	Proj S	Proj G	G Rank
1978	73	53	235	305	278	63	1
1979	80	69	279	314	314	78	1
1980	75	51	246	328	308	64	1
1981	79	68	315	321	317	68	1
1982	80	64	301	346	346	74	2
1983	79	60	274	297	293	64	3
1984	67	51	246	301	252	52	5
1985	76	58	285	331	314	64	3
1986	80	61	302	313	313	63	2
1987	63	38	226	288	227	38	18

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

With only a relatively minor increase in his shot production, Bossy comes out with four straight goal scoring titles, followed by a second-place finish in 1982 with a 74 goal season that would have ranked as the 5th best raw single season total in NHL history at Bossy's retirement (with Bossy also holding down the #3 spot). That would have certainly dealt with any peak-level concerns, especially considering that by some adjustment methods 78 goals in 1978-79 works out as quite similar to 92 in 1981-82. Conveniently, it would also rank him ahead of Gretzky 590-586 in terms of total goals over each of their 9 best consecutive seasons.

Just to present both sides here, it should be noted that there have been other great goal scorers who like Bossy weren't at a top-3 shot level even at their peaks (e.g. Steven Stamkos, Teemu Selanne, Jari Kurri, Luc Robitaille, Leon Draisaitl). This shows it is not impossible to be an elite shooter that has a lower shot volume and relies on a very high finishing rate, I'm just not sure any of those guys were quite at the same level as Bossy or are particularly good stylistic comparables. On the whole, I think the evidence suggests that Bossy most likely could have easily managed a higher shot volume and probably would have produced very well if given that opportunity.

 

[Michael Varnakov]

I've posted on this in a couple of threads before, and I thought I'd put it out there for discussion.

When it comes to discussing the greatest goalscorers, I've often seen Bossy dismissed in this forum because Gretzky was a better goal scorer in their era. I don't think that's true at all -- I have Bossy as clearly the better goal scorer.

I will concede that Gretzky was better at racking up regular season goals in a league where 16 of 21 teams made the playoffs and the first half of the regular season was basically training camp. But Mike Bossy was the greatest goal scorer of his era when the games counted.

From 1978-79 to 1982-83, Mike Bossy played 82 playoff games and scored 67 goals. From 1980-81 to 1985-86, Wayne Gretzky played 75 playoff goals and scored 62 goals. Basically identical. Also, in Challenge Cup and Canada Cup games in 1979, 1981, and 1985, Mike Bossy scored 15 goals in 18 games. Gretzky scored 13 goals in 24 Canada Cup games in 1981, 1984, and 1987. Bossy was the better goal scorer in these highly competitive games.

So Bossy and Gretzky were basically equal in their playoff goal scoring peak. Lets dig a bit deeper to find the differences.

Structure vs Chaos
Bossy and Gretzky were very different in the way they scored their goals. Bossy was a much better goal scorer in a structured game and against a set defence. Gretzky was the much better goal scorer in a chaotic game. This includes unusual situations like 4-on-4, 3-on-4, 4-on-3, etc. Games against low quality opponents. Scoring against the run of play when the opponent is leading.

Let's break down Bossy's 67 playoff goals from 1979-1983, and do the same for Gretzky's 62 playoff goals from 81-86.

Bossy vs Gretzky in their playoff peaks by situation, table 1

Situation	Mike Bossy	Wayne Gretzky	Bossy/82	Gretzky/82	Difference
5-on-5	33	24	33	26	26%
5-on-4	27	14	27	15	76%
4-on-4	6	9	6	10	-39%
4-on-5	0	5	0	5	-100%
5-on-3	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
4-on-3	1	2	1	2	-54%
3-on-3	0	2	0	2	-100%
3-on-4	0	3	0	3	-100%
3-on-5	0	0	0	0	#DIV/0!
Empty Net	0	3	0	3	-100%
Total	67	62	67	68	-1%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bossy scored 26% more 5-on-5 goals than Gretzky in their playoff peaks. And he scored 76% more 5-on-4 goals than Gretzky in their playoff peaks! These are the most common scoring situations for 1st line scoring forwards, and Bossy was far more dangerous in these situations against playoff defences.

Gretzky scored a lot of goals in defensive situations, including penalty killing and when defending a lead against a team who pulled their goalie. He had 5 goals at 4-on-5, 3 goals at 3-on-4, and 3 empty net goals. Bossy had 0 goals in all these situations, because Al Arbour and the Islanders had very strong checking lines to play in these situations.

Gretzky was also very dangerous when both teams had 4 a side or less. He had 9 goals at 4-on-4, 2 goals at 4-on-3, 2 goals at 3-on-3, and 3 goals at 3-on-4, for a total of 16 of 62 goals scored with 3-4 skaters on each side! The NHL changed the rule after the 1985 season to have play stay at 5-on-5 after concurrent minor penalties, because Gretzky and the Oilers were so good in these situations that the Oilers intentionally tried to create 4-on-4 situations. Bossy had only 7 goals in these situations. We really see here how Gretzky was the better goal scorer in wide-open, chaotic situations.

Bossy vs Gretzky in their playoff peaks by situation, table 2

Situation	Wayne Gretzky	As a % of team	Mike Bossy	As a % of team
Game Tying Goals	6	11.3%	10	20.0%
Go ahead goals	15	16.0%	26	21.0%
1st Period	26	21.1%	27	22.3%
2nd Period	19	16.2%	24	19.0%
3rd Period	16	12.7%	14	12.3%
3rd period of wins	14	13.1%	12	10.5%
3rd period of losses	2	10.5%	2	12.5%
Overtime	1	20.0%	2	14.3%

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Because Bossy was the better goal scorer against set defences, he scored a higher percentage of his goals while the game was close. 36 of his 67 (54%) playoff goals from 78-79 through 82-83 either tied the game or put his team ahead. Gretzky only had 21 of his 62 (34%) playoff goals tie the game or put his team ahead.

You can also see by looking at scoring by period that both Bossy and Gretzky scored less in the third period. Bossy went from scoring around 20% of his team's goals in the first and second period, to only scoring 10.5% of his team's goals in the third period in games that his team won. I would attribute this drop to Al Arbour coaching to play it safe with the lead, giving more ice time to the checking lines and having the Trottier-Bossy line play it safe as well.

Gretzky's goal scoring also dropped in the third period of wins, but less so than Bossy's. Empty net goals are probably the difference. Third period goal scoring was among the biggest differences between Gretzky's regular season goal scoring and playoff goal scoring at his peak. He scored more goals in the third period than any other during the regular season -- probably picking up some cheap goals late in blowouts and taking advantage of his superior conditioning -- but his third period advantage went away in the playoffs.

Anyway, I'm not saying that Gretzky's goals in certain situations don't count. I'm saying that Bossy was a much better goal scorer against playoff defences in most game situations, and especially when games were close. Gretzky's advantages came in areas that could be taken away by rule changes (4-on-4 / 4-on-3 / 3-on-4), or by facing top defenders (for example, his SH scoring -- half his playoff SHG were against the Winnipeg Jets). Gretzky also got to play 5+ minutes more per game than Bossy and had the opportunity to score in defensive situations that Bossy never played in. When it came to winning games and winning Stanley Cups, Mike Bossy was the better goal scorer.

If Mike Bossy had played 20+ seasons, he would have, not could have, been the only player in NHL history to have scored 1000 goals!

This feat will most likely never be achieved in an 82 game regular season.

 

[Big Phil]

I always find this is my argument. Bossy and Ovechkin per se, and for that matter Richard, are better pure goal scorers. Just like Ty Cobb or even Rod Carew were better pure hitters than Babe Ruth. But......................Babe Ruth is probably the best hitter of all-time because he not only had an insane average, he smashed home run records while doing it. Same thing with Gretzky, he was smashing records all over the place, not just scoring goals. To me that is always more impressive. Score 92 goals all the while having an often forgotten all-time single season assist record set (at the time, later broken by him). I mean, incredible! It dwarfs the times Ovechkin had 50 goals and 25 assists.