OT: MIchigan Sports Thread: UM wins Natty Championship

[SpookyTsuki]

That pick could’ve been better but I’m happy with #18

 

[Bench]

Swift is one the way out. This was his notice.

My friend, a #12 overall pick for the NFL is insanely valuable. RBs are easily the most replaceable position in the league and the stats bear that out definitively.

Like I said, if Gibbs turns into one of the most dynamic offensive talents in the league, I'll eat that crow. But if he's putting up numbers that are replaceable by the majority of 3rd round guys, which has historically been the case, this is a weird decision for a team that has been making great moves otherwise.

 

[Reality Check]

Safe to say Seattle taking Witherspoon really f***ed up our plans. Normally all for trading back but Carter just made so much sense.

At least they went defense with their next pick and added another second for tomorrow night.

 

[BSHH]

Campbell at #18 feels like the next clear overdraft to me. At least there is a need for a LB, although drafting for need normally is not a good idea.

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[BSHH]

For what it's worth, PFF has Gibbs and Canpbell ranked at #34 and #38; ESPN has them at #28 and #58. The Lions have their own list, but this feels like throwing away at least one first-round pick. To complete my misery, they need to take a TE next...

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[Reality Check]

Campbell at #18 feels like the next clear overdraft to me. At least there is a need for a LB, although drafting for need normally is not a good idea.

Gruß,
BSHH

To be fair, this draft isn't exactly the greatest either.

When Lukas Van Ness goes right after the Lions taking Gibbs, it certainly feels more of a crapshoot than previous years.

 

[Bondurant]

For what it's worth, PFF has Gibbs and Canpbell ranked at #34 and #38; ESPN has them at #28 and #58. The Lions have their own list, but this feels like throwing away at least one first-round pick. To complete my misery, they need to take a TE next...

Gruß,
BSHH

Holmes sticks to his guns. He is not swayed by self-proclaimed draft experts and mock drafts.

 

[Bench]

For what it's worth, PFF has Gibbs and Canpbell ranked at #34 and #38; ESPN has them at #28 and #58. The Lions have their own list, but this feels like throwing away at least one first-round pick. To complete my misery, they need to take a TE next...

Gruß,
BSHH

For what it's worth, The Athletic had him as their #22 prospect. So he has first round talent (but he's still an RB).

 

[Bondurant]

The reactions of Holmes and MC/DC. They drafted Gibbs for a reason.

 

[Hen Kolland]

For what it's worth, The Athletic had him as their #22 prospect. So he has first round talent (but he's still an RB).

The league’s trend is away from RBs and LBs, but from a Lions perspective, they are a team who is able to apply a drastically different valuation on the positions.

Starting with Jack Campbell because it’s easy. For years the Lions have struggled to stop the run, cover RBs out of the backfield, matchup up with big, athletic tight ends. They want to control the point of attack, and that will occasionally leave guys on islands. Campbell can do all of it better than anyone on the team last year in the linebacker room.

As for RBs. You can say what you want about having Swift, but it seems apparent that the team is done with the RBs from last year. They were good, but the Lions expect to be great there. A top 5 offensive line. Their OC came out leading into free agency and said plainly, if our RBs could break a tackle or make someone miss, we turn 3-4 into 8-9+.

Jamaal was the worst forced missed tackle RB. Replaced him with Montgomery who was one of the best. Swift can’t stay healthy, doesn’t have a contract, didn’t run consistently with urgency, and often missed reads that killed plays. They draft a replacement. Reset the rookie deal, get someone who is an even better athlete, hopefully someone with more intensity.

If you can move Swift for a late day 2 pick to Philadelphia, it’s a win.

I said coming into this draft that they had carte Blanche with the recent improvements. They have gone out and drafted some of the best players in the draft at the positions that they NEED to excel maintain the identity they are building.

So it’s unconventional and the values are questionable, but it’s who they are.

 

[aar000n]

The lions draft someone at RB that would have been there in the second. Passing on defensive lineman that they need is the most lion move ever.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The lions draft someone at RB that would have been there in the second. Passing on defensive lineman that they need is the most lion move ever.

Gibbs wasn’t making it to day 2. This is the same bullshit fallacy when the NHL draft comes around.

“Why did the Wings take Carter Mazur there, you could have waited 2 rounds?”

And now the same people who ask the question think that Mazur is a steal and should have been a first round pick.

 

[Winger98]

My friend, a #12 overall pick for the NFL is insanely valuable. RBs are easily the most replaceable position in the league and the stats bear that out definitively.

Like I said, if Gibbs turns into one of the most dynamic offensive talents in the league, I'll eat that crow. But if he's putting up numbers that are replaceable by the majority of 3rd round guys, which has historically been the case, this is a weird decision for a team that has been making great moves otherwise.

yeah, drafting a RB seemed an odd pick. The league seems to go through running backs like crazy.

 

[izlez]

I'm a bit torn, but overall I like the Gibbs pick.

I do think it is not exactly smart in general to draft a running back in the first round.

I also believe in taking best available player. If he's going into the hall of fame in 20 years, no one will remember if he was a draft reach or a positional need at the time.

I know that I'm far from a scout, but I honestly didn't love any of the players I looked at as potential picks. That includes guys like Anderson and Carter. I don't see the ELITE talent others see. I'd have been happy with them because other people say they're great, but I don't necessarily see it myself. Honestly, after watching some highlights of Gibbs (I only did this after he was picked, so potential bias there), this guy absolutely looks like an elite talent to me. Right now, I'm actually liking him way more than Bijan.

There is a bit of me laughing at people that trust the online "experts" so much and just assuming players will be available later. Other teams may have loved Gibbs and thought they could get him in the early 2nd round. Well, turns out they couldn't and they didn't get him.

And there's also me trusting Brad Holmes, because he has earned it so far. He got his guy. Just like Yzerman got his guy in Seider. And what do people say when a GM makes a pick like that? "He could've at least traded down and got him at #___ pick"... HE DID THAT

 

[jaster]

I don’t know why y’all are Lions fans in 2023. You could have waited until 2050 to root for them, and still got to see their first SB.

 

[Run the Jewels]

The league’s trend is away from RBs and LBs, but from a Lions perspective, they are a team who is able to apply a drastically different valuation on the positions.

Starting with Jack Campbell because it’s easy. For years the Lions have struggled to stop the run, cover RBs out of the backfield, matchup up with big, athletic tight ends. They want to control the point of attack, and that will occasionally leave guys on islands. Campbell can do all of it better than anyone on the team last year in the linebacker room.

As for RBs. You can say what you want about having Swift, but it seems apparent that the team is done with the RBs from last year. They were good, but the Lions expect to be great there. A top 5 offensive line. Their OC came out leading into free agency and said plainly, if our RBs could break a tackle or make someone miss, we turn 3-4 into 8-9+.

Jamaal was the worst forced missed tackle RB. Replaced him with Montgomery who was one of the best. Swift can’t stay healthy, doesn’t have a contract, didn’t run consistently with urgency, and often missed reads that killed plays. They draft a replacement. Reset the rookie deal, get someone who is an even better athlete, hopefully someone with more intensity.

If you can move Swift for a late day 2 pick to Philadelphia, it’s a win.

I said coming into this draft that they had carte Blanche with the recent improvements. They have gone out and drafted some of the best players in the draft at the positions that they NEED to excel maintain the identity they are building.

So it’s unconventional and the values are questionable, but it’s who they are.

I don't follow the Lions closely at all, but I do get the general sense that their GM and OC have been successful which is rare for the franchise. Thanks for this writeup, it sounds like they drafted for need, not best player available. The consensus has been that you should draft BPA, so I think that is a big part of why the draft thus far has been so poorly received.

 

[Tatar Shots]

I don't follow the Lions closely at all, but I do get the general sense that their GM and OC have been successful which is rare for the franchise. Thanks for this writeup, it sounds like they drafted for need, not best player available. The consensus has been that you should draft BPA, so I think that is a big part of why the draft thus far has been so poorly received.

Not quite. Positional value has a lot of emphasis in the draft. The argument you’re seeing is actually the other way around. People arguing that Gibbs and Campbell might be the best players, but that they were not good use of draft value.

 

[izlez]

I don't follow the Lions closely at all, but I do get the general sense that their GM and OC have been successful which is rare for the franchise. Thanks for this writeup, it sounds like they drafted for need, not best player available. The consensus has been that you should draft BPA, so I think that is a big part of why the draft thus far has been so poorly received.

I don't think that is the case. We didn't NEED an RB after signing Montgomery and Swift still being on the roster.
I would say that the complaints are that we did not draft for need. We drafted BPA, and our scouts' view of who was the BPA differed drastically from the online experts

 

[Hen Kolland]

I don't follow the Lions closely at all, but I do get the general sense that their GM and OC have been successful which is rare for the franchise. Thanks for this writeup, it sounds like they drafted for need, not best player available. The consensus has been that you should draft BPA, so I think that is a big part of why the draft thus far has been so poorly received.

The funny thing is, in Brad Holmes' press conference after night one, he said that he didn't draft based on positional value or need at all. They picked their best player available.

I think that characterizes things really well. The Lions vision for the team assigns a different "value" to players when determining who is best. They expect that the RB and LB play is a significant component of their identity and as a result, they are more likely to dig into the tape of some of these players and build up a case as BPA. Other teams don't view a LB as essential, so they discount them.

Or we could be flat out wrong and this was the end of a regime. Who knows.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I try to keep a pretty open mind on draft night but that’s a borderline unjustifiable first round.

Gibbs and Campbell will be very good players but it’s a colossal miss on impact positions. Didn’t address the pass rush, didn’t address the future of the secondary, still need another WR and guard, and Goff has the leverage to ask for basically whatever he wants at this point.

Hope we can recapture some of the value in the mid rounds but sheesh even if Gibbs and Campbell are the best players in the league at their respective positions, and they probably won’t be, it’s pretty tough value. Like the Hockenson pick all over again but on steroids.

Please for just give me Wemby or Bedard or Fantilli. I can’t pretend to believe in the Lions much longer.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Gibbs wasn’t making it to day 2. This is the same bullshit fallacy when the NHL draft comes around.

“Why did the Wings take Carter Mazur there, you could have waited 2 rounds?”

And now the same people who ask the question think that Mazur is a steal and should have been a first round pick.

I agree with the principle but disagree with this application of it.

I think there’s a big difference between the early 3rd round of the NHL draft, where things get very murky, and taking a RB at the second highest selection in the past five years.

 

[izlez]

I try to keep a pretty open mind on draft night but that’s a borderline unjustifiable first round.

Gibbs and Campbell will be very good players but it’s a colossal miss on impact positions. Didn’t address the pass rush, didn’t address the future of the secondary, still need another WR and guard, and Goff has the leverage to ask for basically whatever he wants at this point.

Hope we can recapture some of the value in the mid rounds but sheesh even if Gibbs and Campbell are the best players in the league at their respective positions, and they probably won’t be, it’s pretty tough value. Like the Hockenson pick all over again but on steroids.

Please for just give me Wemby or Bedard or Fantilli. I can’t pretend to believe in the Lions much longer.

Well this is just crazy to me. You're given a time machine with the option to take rookie Alvin Kamara and Luke Kuechly or just draft as normal, and you'd just draft as normal??

 

[Hen Kolland]

I agree with the principle but disagree with this application of it.

I think there’s a big difference between the early 3rd round of the NHL draft, where things get very murky, and taking a RB at the second highest selection in the past five years.

The bigger point is, if that's your guy, that's your guy. If you want a different hockey comparison, this is debating if you want to trade back or pick Seider at 6. Seider is a "reach" but that was the Wings guy. Positionally it's not a reach, but nobody had him slotted there, everybody is outraged. The truth will eventually be unveiled.

And I can completely understand the fan reaction, because you know what else the Gibbs pick is very similar to?

"RBs are short term and easily replaceable, not worth the premium pick"
"Goalies are voodoo and impossible to predict, not worth the premium pick"

They aren't worth the pick until they are. You carry all the risk until the reward comes, if it ever does.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

Well this is just crazy to me. You're given a time machine with the option to take rookie Alvin Kamara and Luke Kuechly or just draft as normal, and you'd just draft as normal??

The point I’m trying to make is moreso that you don’t have a Time Machine so you shouldn’t make these picks because the path to success is very, very narrow. Saquon Barkley is a really talented RB but he was a terrible pick because position and value matter in the NFL.

Great players at linebacker and RB just aren’t winning teams Superbowls in 2023. They just aren’t. I think you can occasionally make a pick like this but to do it twice in a first round where we sorely needed to address impact positions is really really tough.

We’ll be a very good team next year and Gibbs and Campbell will be very good players. But I think last night was a big moment in hindering our ability to become a great team.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

The bigger point is, if that's your guy, that's your guy. If you want a different hockey comparison, this is debating if you want to trade back or pick Seider at 6. Seider is a "reach" but that was the Wings guy. Positionally it's not a reach, but nobody had him slotted there, everybody is outraged. The truth will eventually be unveiled.

And I can completely understand the fan reaction, because you know what else the Gibbs pick is very similar to?

"RBs are short term and easily replaceable, not worth the premium pick"
"Goalies are voodoo and impossible to predict, not worth the premium pick"

They aren't worth the pick until they are. You carry all the risk until the reward comes, if it ever does.

The difference in positional value between hockey and football is way, way different.