OT: MIchigan Sports Thread: UM wins Natty Championship

[Frk It]

If the Lions didn't sign Montgomery and then just drafted Bijan at 6, that would make more sense.

Weird to me if they wanted a RB that they would not take the guy considered far and wide to be not only the best RB but one of the best players in this draft class.

 

[norrisnick]

As someone who follows neither the NFL or the Lions this all reads like the Wings trading back and then picking a "steady" LD and a "character" winger in the first round.

 

[izlez]

As someone who follows neither the NFL or the Lions this all reads like the Wings trading back and then picking a "steady" LD and a "character" winger in the first round.

Come to think of it, there is a pretty strong parallel between the Gibbs pick to the Cossa pick.

Both are positions that people feel you just don't take in the 1st round.
In both drafts, there was a talent where people felt "OK, this guy is so talented I wouldn't be MAD if they broke that rule to take this guy".
Then, the team seemingly valued the #2 guy over the consensus #1 guy that people felt might have been worth it.

There's some obvious differences in that Cossa needs to develop and its hard to project goalies while Gibbs should come in and perform on day 1 but will likely have a short career because of the position

 

[jkutswings]

Come to think of it, there is a pretty strong parallel between the Gibbs pick to the Cossa pick.

Both are positions that people feel you just don't take in the 1st round.
In both drafts, there was a talent where people felt "OK, this guy is so talented I wouldn't be MAD if they broke that rule to take this guy".
Then, the team seemingly valued the #2 guy over the consensus #1 guy that people felt might have been worth it.

There's some obvious differences in that Cossa needs to develop and its hard to project goalies while Gibbs should come in and perform on day 1 but will likely have a short career because of the position

The difference would be that 99 percent of Earth wasn't fully confident that Cossa would've still been there had the Wings not moved up.

Nobody was taking Gibbs between 12 and 18, so the Lions could've landed another player (Van Ness or a corner) and still taken the RB with their second first rounder.

Even if he's your guy, it's bad asset management to not know the demand isn't there in the next half dozen picks. I mean, I could think that the kicker from Ohio State will be the next Hall of Famer to rewrite the record books. But I still know not to take him in the first few rounds, because nobody else is either.

 

[izlez]

The difference would be that 99 percent of Earth wasn't fully confident that Cossa would've still been there had the Wings not moved up.

Nobody was taking Gibbs between 12 and 18, so the Lions could've landed another player (Van Ness or a corner) and still taken the RB with their second first rounder.

Even if he's your guy, it's bad asset management to not know the demand isn't there in the next half dozen picks. I mean, I could think that the kicker from Ohio State will be the next Hall of Famer to rewrite the record books. But I still know not to take him in the first few rounds, because nobody else is either.

All of this is pure speculation that I'm not sure really matters, but:

1. I do think that roughly 99% of people thought Cossa would still be there at 23 if they hadn't traded up.

2.




3. There's rumors that the Lions like Gibbs as their player at #6. They literally did what every fan always whines about. When "reaching" on a player, they did in fact trade down to do it.

 

[jkutswings]

All of this is pure speculation that I'm not sure really matters, but:

1. I do think that roughly 99% of people thought Cossa would still be there at 23 if they hadn't traded up.

2.




3. There's rumors that the Lions like Gibbs as their player at #6. They literally did what every fan always whines about. When "reaching" on a player, they did in fact trade down to do it.

All that tells me is that the Lions are now in the same boat as the Jets for talent evaluation. Which is not a good boat to be in.

 

[izlez]

All that tells me is that the Lions are now in the same boat as the Jets for talent evaluation. Which is not a good boat to be in.

I mean, I get that this is said kind of jokingly. But, you get that this comment could not possibly be more absurd, right?

 

[Hen Kolland]

All that tells me is that the Lions are now in the same boat as the Jets for talent evaluation. Which is not a good boat to be in.

And there were rumors that the Patriots were going to take him at 14 and then traded down to 17 when they ended up on the clock.

99% of the world thought that Gibbs would be available at what? 18? 34?

You’re just showing your ass pretending that you know anything about what would have happened. The only thing we know for certain is that Detroit wasn’t willing to risk not getting him at 12, and Brad Holmes almost put his fist through the table he was so excited about it.

But please enlighten us on the proper talent evaluation, since the Lions being excited about getting their guy isn’t acceptable.

 

[jkutswings]

And there were rumors that the Patriots were going to take him at 14 and then traded down to 17 when they ended up on the clock.

99% of the world thought that Gibbs would be available at what? 18? 34?

You’re just showing your ass pretending that you know anything about what would have happened. The only thing we know for certain is that Detroit wasn’t willing to risk not getting him at 12, and Brad Holmes almost put his fist through the table he was so excited about it.

But please enlighten us on the proper talent evaluation, since the Lions being excited about getting their guy isn’t acceptable.

Fair enough if several other teams were in fact interested (and not just spewing the usual misinformation).

But that changes nothing.

You. Do. Not. Draft. A. Running. Back. In. The. First. Round.

Atlanta was dumb to do it at 8. It's a position that's easily found later on. And using that kind of capital is a surefire way to kill your salary cap sooner than later. It's also why it's stupid to take a wide receiver in the first round.

The Lions can be excited about whatever they want. They were thrilled to get Sewell, and he looks great. They were thrilled to get Onwuzurike and McNeill, and they're not exactly setting the league on fire. It's just cheerleading on draft day that doesn't mean much.

But hey, it's not my money. They can throw it away on replaceable skill positions all they want. It's just that when they ARE a playoff team, and could potentially get over the hump to appear in or even win a Super Bowl by squeezing in one more salary... Oops. You're capped out because of guys like Gibbs. (Or he doesn't pan out, and you're looking for his replacement.)

EDIT: And for good talent evaluation, look no further than the Eagles. Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, they absolutely do need another running back moreso than the Lions, they have two first round picks... And they take a DL and an EDGE. They'll find a good back later in the draft, and they'll be right back in the Super Bowl. Because some positions are more impactful than others.

 

[izlez]

All that tells me is that the Lions are now in the same boat as the Jets for talent evaluation. Which is not a good boat to be in.

Because you haven't specifically acknowledged it, I'll just spell out the fact that the Jets had BOTH the Offensive Rookie of the Year & Defensive Rookie of the Year last year, AFTER losing the running back to injury that was the leading candidate for rookie of the year before he got hurt.

EDIT: And for good talent evaluation, look no further than the Eagles. Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, they absolutely do need another running back moreso than the Lions, they have two first round picks... And they take a DL and an EDGE. They'll find a good back later in the draft, and they'll be right back in the Super Bowl. Because some positions are more impactful than others.

Just to be clear, you're referring to the GM and team of talent evaluators that recently took WR's in the first round in back to back years, one of which that has been completely useless? I'm not so sure those guys subscribe to the theory you're pushing

 

[Bench]

If things don't work out in football, perhaps the Red Wings should take a look at this guy.

6'5" 272 lb defenseman. Would make Chiarot look like a lightweight.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Fair enough if several other teams were in fact interested (and not just spewing the usual misinformation).

But that changes nothing.

You. Do. Not. Draft. A. Running. Back. In. The. First. Round.

Atlanta was dumb to do it at 8. It's a position that's easily found later on. And using that kind of capital is a surefire way to kill your salary cap sooner than later. It's also why it's stupid to take a wide receiver in the first round.

The Lions can be excited about whatever they want. They were thrilled to get Sewell, and he looks great. They were thrilled to get Onwuzurike and McNeill, and they're not exactly setting the league on fire. It's just cheerleading on draft day that doesn't mean much.

But hey, it's not my money. They can throw it away on replaceable skill positions all they want. It's just that when they ARE a playoff team, and could potentially get over the hump to appear in or even win a Super Bowl by squeezing in one more salary... Oops. You're capped out because of guys like Gibbs. (Or he doesn't pan out, and you're looking for his replacement.)

EDIT: And for good talent evaluation, look no further than the Eagles. Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, they absolutely do need another running back moreso than the Lions, they have two first round picks... And they take a DL and an EDGE. They'll find a good back later in the draft, and they'll be right back in the Super Bowl. Because some positions are more impactful than others.

It all comes down to projection, right? If the Lions are convinced they drafted Kamara, they win. Try to argue that a healthy, non-suspended Kamara doesn’t go in the top 10 of any draft. Doesn’t matter that he’s a running back.

In my opinion, the Lions are clearly gearing up to re-sign Goff. They are building up the offense with cheap talent with some exceptions, and they are going to try to win something in Goff’s window.

If that’s actually the plan, I don’t give a single f*** about how short RB careers are. You draft for the 5 year window of Goff. Done.

When it ends, it gets ugly again.

 

[Frk It]

It all comes down to projection, right? If the Lions are convinced they drafted Kamara, they win. Try to argue that a healthy, non-suspended Kamara doesn’t go in the top 10 of any draft. Doesn’t matter that he’s a running back.

In my opinion, the Lions are clearly gearing up to re-sign Goff. They are building up the offense with cheap talent with some exceptions, and they are going to try to win something in Goff’s window.

If that’s actually the plan, I don’t give a single f*** about how short RB careers are. You draft for the 5 year window of Goff. Done.

When it ends, it gets ugly again.

Did you think Gibbs was a top 15 player going into the draft? Did you see anyone saying that? Do you think he’s a better RB prospect than Bijan?

 

[Bench]

Did you think Gibbs was a top 15 player going into the draft? Did you see anyone saying that? Do you think he’s a better RB prospect than Bijan?

It's not even about that. Because clearly the Lions think he was a top player of the draft. You're falling into Hen's logic trap.

The real question is if Hen here is willing to admit this is a highly contentious pick that has a higher than normal potential to backfire for the Lions. It's a bold and decisive move. It's not what most people would do. That doesn't mean it's wrong, of course.

If Gibbs has a typical career like Zeke or Barkley that has a great start and then slows down quickly due to RBs being perpetually hurt and then needing a huge contract that can't be justified... Oh boy. That's been the standard for 1st round RBs. And there's basically nobody that has beat the trend yet and helped their team build a Super Bowl winner around a high RB draft pick.

Are the Lions going to be the trend setters and break all the data that shows RBs are the least valuable position in football? It's a huge gamble. And if Hen isn't at least concerned about this not working, then it means he's basically not paid attention to the mountain of evidence working against the Lions here.

In short, I think it's fair to give the Lions the benefit of the doubt and find value in this pick. But if you're not willing to admit this is a massive moonshot with backfire potential, I think you're huffing the copium a bit to liberally.

And I say this as a Packers fan who saw his own team take a moonshot pick with Jordan Love that has quite the backfire potential. I get why they made that pick. But I'm naturally concerned it could be a fairly sizable misfire.

 

[BSHH]

[...]
As for RBs. You can say what you want about having Swift, but it seems apparent that the team is done with the RBs from last year. They were good, but the Lions expect to be great there. A top 5 offensive line. Their OC came out leading into free agency and said plainly, if our RBs could break a tackle or make someone miss, we turn 3-4 into 8-9+.

Jamaal was the worst forced missed tackle RB. Replaced him with Montgomery who was one of the best. Swift can’t stay healthy, doesn’t have a contract, didn’t run consistently with urgency, and often missed reads that killed plays. They draft a replacement. Reset the rookie deal, get someone who is an even better athlete, hopefully someone with more intensity.

If you can move Swift for a late day 2 pick to Philadelphia, it’s a win.
[...]

Swift's frequent injuries are a huge drawback, but he still had around 550 yards rushing and 380 yards receiving - that is good RB2 production. There was no need at all to try and replace Swift. Gibbs will become even more expensive than Swift.

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[Bench]

Swift's frequent injuries are a huge drawback

That's all running backs. Like I think Christian McCaffrey is an absolute monster and worth a 1st round pick... if you get him during a healthy year. But for every healthy year you have to accept one he's limping through his reps or not available at all.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Did you think Gibbs was a top 15 player going into the draft? Did you see anyone saying that? Do you think he’s a better RB prospect than Bijan?

I didn’t put thought into Gibbs because I wasn’t drafting a RB. However, that has less than zero importance. I don’t have the time to watch each and every player in the draft and didn’t think RB was particularly likely in round 1

I did follow multiple sources that started to talk about how Gibbs was solidifying a first round selection and potential to be a top 20 pick.

I don’t think he’s a better RB prospect than Bijan. But at 12 I would have opted for Van Ness over either of them. I would have been fine with Gonzalez at that point.

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Didn’t someone say they were going to throw bricks through windows or something if they draft a te and rb with their first two picks? Well it only took three

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

The NFL draft is so weird. People talking about, "Oh, they might have taken this QB in the 1st or 2nd, so he's good value in the 3rd." The NFL having no meaningful developmental league leads to some strange decisions.

 

[BSHH]

After I hated what the Lions did yesterday, I like today's picks quite a lot. Based on the profiles I read, here are my uneducated takes:

- Taking a TE early doesn't sit well with an analytical approach (either, I must add after the RB and LB in the first round). LaPorta wasn't even the best-rated available TE. But he seems to be the most versatile of these TEs as a good receiving option and a solid blocker. I like this versatility very much, since the offense can keep its option open more easily (like with good pass-catching RBs).

- Branch seems to bring good positional value and is a highly rated talent. Once again, versatility is the main advantage. He might not fill an actual need now, but this is more an indictment of how much the Lions have improved their secondary.

- Of course, Hooker fills an immediate need even less (although the Lions do not have a proven QB2). However, I really like Hooker's traits - passing accuracy, ability to throw the deep pass and mobility. At least, he should be able to heal properly and provide the Lions with an above-average backup plus some leverage in negotiations with Goff. But if Hooker can adapt to the NFL (and he seems to have all the necessary tools), his ceiling is tantalizing.

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[Bench]

The NFL draft is so weird. People talking about, "Oh, they might have taken this QB in the 1st or 2nd, so he's good value in the 3rd." The NFL having no meaningful developmental league leads to some strange decisions.

It's partly because sample sizes can be extremely small in football. Add in injuries, reducing said small samples even further, and it's even more of a crapshoot. So if a guy had any kind of injury or fell down a depth chart, you're just going on limited data and trying to extrapolate your best educated guess.

The #3 overall pick from 2021, QB Trey Lance, only attempted 318 passes in college. Total. His entire college career. 287 of those came in one season.

Just for comparison, most NFL QBs throw 500-600 passes a season. Bryce Young, the #1 overall pick this year, threw 949 passes in college.

 

[Bench]

After I hated what the Lions did yesterday, I like today's picks quite a lot. Based on the profiles I read, here are my uneducated takes:

- Taking a TE early doesn't sit well with an analytical approach (either, I must add after the RB and LB in the first round). LaPorta wasn't even the best-rated available TE. But he seems to be the most versatile of these TEs as a good receiving option and a solid blocker. I like this versatility very much, since the offense can keep its option open more easily (like with good pass-catching RBs).

- Branch seems to bring good positional value and is a highly rated talent. Once again, versatility is the main advantage. He might not fill an actual need now, but this is more an indictment of how much the Lions have improved their secondary.

- Of course, Hooker fills an immediate need even less (although the Lions do not have a proven QB2). However, I really like Hooker's traits - passing accuracy, ability to throw the deep pass and mobility. At least, he should be able to heal properly and provide the Lions with an above-average backup plus some leverage in negotiations with Goff. But if Hooker can adapt to the NFL (and he seems to have all the necessary tools), his ceiling is tantalizing.

Gruß,
BSHH

The Lions threw all advanced analytics straight out the window. They clearly just don't care about it and are building around their own metrics.

The team will either flame out or become the new model other teams attempt to mimic. Love it or hate it, it's an exciting time to be a Lions fan. As a division rival observer, I'm watching them with great interest.

 

[BSHH]

The Lions threw all advanced analytics straight out the window. They clearly just don't care about it and are building around their own metrics.

The team will either flame out or become the new model other teams attempt to mimic. Love it or hate it, it's an exciting time to be a Lions fan. As a division rival observer, I'm watching them with great interest.

That's certainly true. However, I think what the Lions will achieve this year will largely be determined by what the did this off-season before the draft - several very impressive moves by Holmes in my opinion. They do have ample cap space left and won't need to spend some of it on Bridgewater now...

Gruß,
BSHH

 

[newfy]

Did you think Gibbs was a top 15 player going into the draft? Did you see anyone saying that? Do you think he’s a better RB prospect than Bijan?

I didnt think he was top 15, but everyone that knew the draft knew he was a big riser that people inside the league liked. Those fast risers usually go quicker than the people doing mock drafts have them because theyre a little out of touch compared to the actual GMs. Even before the draft, it was coming out that some teams had Gibbs ahead of Bijan because hes almost like a receiver.

I'm kinda wait and see on this one. The Lions got a day one difference maker so even if hes only aorund 5 years, thats kinda their window to win right now anyways. If you can get a Deebo, CMC, Kamara etc at 12, people do that every time. Hes that kind of talent

 

[Frk It]

I didnt think he was top 15, but everyone that knew the draft knew he was a big riser that people inside the league liked. Those fast risers usually go quicker than the people doing mock drafts have them because theyre a little out of touch compared to the actual GMs. Even before the draft, it was coming out that some teams had Gibbs ahead of Bijan because hes almost like a receiver.

I'm kinda wait and see on this one. The Lions got a day one difference maker so even if hes only aorund 5 years, thats kinda their window to win right now anyways. If you can get a Deebo, CMC, Kamara etc at 12, people do that every time. Hes that kind of talent

I never saw one thing saying some teams had Gibbs over Bijan. Only saw that he was a riser and it was reflected in the 1.5 RB line taken in round 1 set by Vegas.

I thought the Lions did good in round 2 but could have had a more impactful round 1 with the picks they had.