OT: MIchigan Sports Thread: UM wins Natty Championship

[StreetHawk]

The other aspect of this is that in years prior, it would be like, go now JJ while youre projected in the first round so you actually get paid a lot while you can. Now? The way Michigan does NIL he'll probably make 2-3years worth of NFL salary by staying at Michigan.

Obviously theres a lot that goes into declaring or not, but with the number of QBs coming out this year and things like that, JJ staying seems like a no brainer with NIL

You go if you are expected to be a surefire first rounder. Just don't see that out of McCarthy and if he under performs early, fans will turn on him quickly.
If he's a day 2 guy, then the NIL affords him to chance to make money and develop his game so that he's more ready for the NFL.

If your view is short term (I'll use Trubisky here, as a 1 year starter at NC so he could have returned but declared and went top 3) He got like $25 mill or something over 4 years. So, that I get. But, going round 2 where it's like $5 mill total, you can get that next year and still make around the same yearly amount in NIL. Goal is to be good enough on the rookie deal to warrant a big second contract like even someone like Daniel Jones got. Jimmy had a good 1.5 games in NE before being traded and played well in the final 4 games or so with SF to get like $125 mill over 5 years with them.

Just need to be ready to perform when the opportunity arises. Lower in the draft you go, the less chances you get.

 

[newfy]

You go if you are expected to be a surefire first rounder. Just don't see that out of McCarthy and if he under performs early, fans will turn on him quickly.
If he's a day 2 guy, then the NIL affords him to chance to make money and develop his game so that he's more ready for the NFL.

If your view is short term (I'll use Trubisky here, as a 1 year starter at NC so he could have returned but declared and went top 3) He got like $25 mill or something over 4 years. So, that I get. But, going round 2 where it's like $5 mill total, you can get that next year and still make around the same yearly amount in NIL. Goal is to be good enough on the rookie deal to warrant a big second contract like even someone like Daniel Jones got.

I disagree.

If JJ is an expected sure fire first rounder but its more of a 15-30th pick type, staying in school, making 2-3 years worth of NFL salary and potentially increasing your draft pick status makes way more sense.

If youre a sure fire top 10 type guy then I agree.

 

[Ezekial]

Unless JJ has a Jordan Love type drafted at 21 runway (he won't), he shouldn't go to the NFL this year, just IMO. I think he will declare for the draft.

 

[StreetHawk]

I disagree.

If JJ is an expected sure fire first rounder but its more of a 15-30th pick type, staying in school, making 2-3 years worth of NFL salary and potentially increasing your draft pick status makes way more sense.

If youre a sure fire top 10 type guy then I agree.

What kind of NIL money is JJ getting? I believe JSN who went #20 got $14.4 mill on his 4 year deal. That is $4.6 mill per year on average. The range from 15-32 is somewhere between $5 mill plus average for the guys in the teens to just under $4 mill for those in the 30's.

 

[newfy]

What kind of NIL money is JJ getting? I believe JSN who went #20 got $14.4 mill on his 4 year deal. That is $4.6 mill per year on average. The range from 15-32 is somewhere between $5 mill plus average for the guys in the teens to just under $4 mill for those in the 30's.

I may have exaggerated a bit lol, but not that far off. Caleb Williams estimate for NIL this year is between 2.5 and 3 million from what I've seen. Base salary for a first overall pick is somewhere around 1 million. Now there are roster bonuses, performance bonuses and things like that that move that up. But when you start falling out of the top 15 or so that number falls down. I imagine after a natty, JJ returning would be one of the highest paid players in the nation.

He would be looking at 2-3 times the base salary he would get in the NFL, without having to worry about hitting bonuses and things of that nature. In all likelihood, it doesnt end up a difference of 3x, but its ends up not a huge difference, while also being able to up his draft status for one year, with little risk if hes insured and also has NIL money

 

[StreetHawk]

I may have exaggerated a bit lol, but not that far off. Caleb Williams estimate for NIL this year is between 2.5 and 3 million from what I've seen. Base salary for a first overall pick is somewhere around 1 million. Now there are roster bonuses, performance bonuses and things like that that move that up. But when you start falling out of the top 15 or so that number falls down. I imagine after a natty, JJ returning would be one of the highest paid players in the nation.

He would be looking at 2-3 times the base salary he would get in the NFL, without having to worry about hitting bonuses and things of that nature. In all likelihood, it doesnt end up a difference of 3x, but its ends up not a huge difference, while also being able to up his draft status for one year, with little risk if hes insured and also has NIL money

The base salary is low for top picks because they get massive signing bonuses.

First round pick money is full guaranteed. Even that bust, Leatherwood that LV took and flamed out with them after 1 year and got cut by Chicago the following year was paid his $12 mill or whatever total amount as a first rounder.

For first rounders, like half your total package is via signing bonus. Trey Lance, SF is eating like $7 mill in dead cap for him in 2024 because of the signing bonus prorated. Dallas is only on the hook for his 2024 base salary.

 

[izlez]

Sorry for going back to ways the Lions have been screwed, but I came across some old GB stats and saw this MFers name and got triggered.



I sure hope we can get the refs to do backflips to invent rules while ignoring other ones to help us out if we're in a close game late in the 4th this Sunday

 

[Hen Kolland]

What kind of NIL money is JJ getting? I believe JSN who went #20 got $14.4 mill on his 4 year deal. That is $4.6 mill per year on average. The range from 15-32 is somewhere between $5 mill plus average for the guys in the teens to just under $4 mill for those in the 30's.

Will Levis went pick 1 of the second round, just use him as an example. His contract is about $9.5 million over 4 years with $8.7 million guaranteed at signing.

Arch Manning has an estimated NIL value of about $3 million. JJ will never be worth what Arch Manning will be in NIL terms just because of the name.

So JJ in college might make the equivalent of one NFL season at best and be missing out on 3-4x as much money guaranteed.

 

[Bench]

Do you really think Williams is the best QB of the bunch? I think his play this year down the stretch would give me great pause. I have Maye over Williams right now at this exact time (beginning of the season I had Williams).

It's always hard to say. He's got the best pedigree if I were a betting man. But some years you get lucky and you can't make a wrong pick. Some years they are all underwhelming after the hype.

Like if you took a QB in 2020, damn that worked out. First 5 QBs off the board are all starters for the foreseeable future. I remember the big debate on who would be the best after Burrow and the answer was: yes.

Joe Burrow
Tua Tagovailoa
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
Jalen Hurts

This is to say, nobody expected that much success so I've stopped pretending I'll know exactly which QB can do what from college to pros. Some guys elevate, some guys shrink. Williams looks like a baller to me but we'll see.

 

[Ben Grimm]

Alright, old thread was over 1k posts, so bring it the michigan sports talk here.

That was posted 9/4/2021. MI wins the national title, and the thread title can't be edited. Apparently all 6 mods retired.

• Sep 4, 2021

 

[Winger98]

That was posted 9/4/2021. MI wins the national title, and the thread title can't be edited. Apparently all 6 mods retired.

• Sep 4, 2021

came in out of retirement to edit the title for you.

 

[Ben Grimm]

came in out of retirement to edit the title for you.

Thanks

 

[Winger98]

Thanks

no problem

 

[jkutswings]

came in out of retirement to edit the title for you.

And I had thought we could become friends.

 

[Ben Grimm]

came in out of retirement to edit the title for you.

Speaking as a former mod @Winger98 is the G.o.a.T!

 

[Konnan511]

Speaking as a former mod @Winger98 is the G.o.a.T!

I mean @ArGarBarGar is an OG from LetsGoWings days. RIP Doc.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Well I know one former mod. A great man. Some say he memed a goaltender pick into existence in the first round of the draft.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Do you really think Williams is the best QB of the bunch? I think his play this year down the stretch would give me great pause. I have Maye over Williams right now at this exact time (beginning of the season I had Williams).



McCarthy needs to stay in college for as long as he can. Some Mock Drafts (USA Today) have him going 13th to the Raiders, that'd be a huge mistake. I don't see NFL Quartback when I see JJ play. I think he is a very good College QB, I don't see NFL QB in him though. Personally, my untrained eye, I didn't think he was super impressive down the stretch. He had a great QBR, but the competition he faced wasn't all that strong until the last4 games of the season, where he was above average in those games (minus the Alabama game, I thought he was really really good).

But again, that's all my opinions, I think JJ would benefit from one more year in College.

Re: Caleb Williams... No, I don't think he's the best. I think he'll be in the Murray, Fields boat where he'll be exciting and lead you to a 6-10 to 9-8 record by balling out against weak opponents and looking completely garbage against legit contenders. The "just good enough to keep you too good to get high picks, but just bad enough that you have 0% chance to get over the hump". He does some ridiculous things... but a lot of what he did at USC with extending the play just simply won't work at the NFL level because everyone in the NFL are the best of the best that he'll face. He looked very ordinary against Notre Dame. In fact, anyone with a number next to their name except for UW (which that game was pure shootout), he did not look great in 2023.

JJ was also hurt for a good bit of that stretch run that he wasn't impressive for. If he's ranked as a mid first, he needs to go. It's not worth the risk to him to stay. Optimally, he stays at Michigan and since they'll be light Blake Corum and be adding some more receivers, Michigan shifts to a more passing focused attack and he lights it up because he's got crazy athletic ability and also can hit some pinpoint accurate passes. With Michigan this year, they had kinda meh receivers, Loveland was a beast, and Blake Corum was the engine that made them go. No offense to Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, Tyler Morris, and Semaj Morgan... but they weren't studs like Odunze or MHJ or Nabors.

 

[jaster]

JJ was also hurt for a good bit of that stretch run that he wasn't impressive for. If he's ranked as a mid first, he needs to go. It's not worth the risk to him to stay. Optimally, he stays at Michigan and since they'll be light Blake Corum and be adding some more receivers, Michigan shifts to a more passing focused attack and he lights it up because he's got crazy athletic ability and also can hit some pinpoint accurate passes. With Michigan this year, they had kinda meh receivers, Loveland was a beast, and Blake Corum was the engine that made them go. No offense to Roman Wilson, Cornelius Johnson, Tyler Morris, and Semaj Morgan... but they weren't studs like Odunze or MHJ or Nabors.

I have a connection to the McCarthy family and got some info last night. JJ's parents are hot for him to go pro. They definitely see college as just a stepping stone to what their ultimate goal has been for JJ since he was a kid.... the NFL. Your bolded statement above makes sense regardless of that info, but it seems doubly true in this case.

(relevant related info: JJ is close to his parents, it's not that they run his life, it's that he's sort of a team with his parents when it comes to his athletic career)

And this makes sense to me when you juxtapose McCarthy's personality against Corum's. Not that JJ doesn't love Michigan, I'm sure he does (he certainly loves his teammates), but Corum absolutely bleeds for the maize and blue, you can tell when he speaks and given his activities off the field. I've just never really gotten that same vibe from McCarthy.

I agree it would be best for McCarthy to stick around another year and develop further. I don't get the sense that is going to happen though.

 

[Ben Grimm]

Michigan basketball's leading scorer Dug McDaniel suspended indefinitely for road games

Michigan basketball's leading scorer Dug McDaniel has been suspended indefinitely for road games, the program has announced.

www.freep.com

I'm not happy about this, but they're 6-9, in 14th place in the B1G, and I'd rather something such as this happen in a bad year than a good year.

 

[jkutswings]

I have a connection to the McCarthy family and got some info last night. JJ's parents are hot for him to go pro. They definitely see college as just a stepping stone to what their ultimate goal has been for JJ since he was a kid.... the NFL. Your bolded statement above makes sense regardless of that info, but it seems doubly true in this case.

(relevant related info: JJ is close to his parents, it's not that they run his life, it's that he's sort of a team with his parents when it comes to his athletic career)

And this makes sense to me when you juxtapose McCarthy's personality against Corum's. Not that JJ doesn't love Michigan, I'm sure he does (he certainly loves his teammates), but Corum absolutely bleeds for the maize and blue, you can tell when he speaks and given his activities off the field. I've just never really gotten that same vibe from McCarthy.

I agree it would be best for McCarthy to stick around another year and develop further. I don't get the sense that is going to happen though.

I get the sense that he will be a horrendous NFL quarterback. But I can't blame him for chasing the dream (or the money, if he has reason to believe he will get taken in the middle of the first round).

 

[jaster]

I get the sense that he will be a horrendous NFL quarterback. But I can't blame him for chasing the dream (or the money, if he has reason to believe he will get taken in the middle of the first round).

He doesn't appear ready to succeed in the NFL, no. Stranger things have happened, but another year at Michigan I think would go a long way for him and his pro prospects. And until last night, I was leaning slightly more that way (him returning) in terms of expectations. Now maybe not.

 

[jkutswings]

He doesn't appear ready to succeed in the NFL, no. Stranger things have happened, but another year at Michigan I think would go a long way for him and his pro prospects. And until last night, I was leaning slightly more that way (him returning) in terms of expectations. Now maybe not.

I don't think you have an awful take. But I question just how well he would be positioned to develop further with another year at Michigan.

It's not that he couldn't use the reps, but the type of reps he would get. I don't see UM overhauling a run-based offense to suddenly have JJ fling it 40+ times a game, or to otherwise become the focal point of the attack.

Even with another year, how much do you think he could grow in the offense Michigan uses? And more importantly, how much of that would be helpful to him when he turns pro?

 

[norrisnick]

I mean @ArGarBarGar is an OG from LetsGoWings days. RIP Doc.

Modding LGW makes you an OG now? I was the king at smacking down fools who'd keep creating accounts because they were banned.


peace

 

[Ben Grimm]

I mean @ArGarBarGar is an OG from LetsGoWings days. RIP Doc.

All 6 are great guys and true Red Wing fans, but they're all Spartan fans.

Modding LGW makes you an OG now? I was the king at smacking down fools who'd keep creating accounts because they were banned. peace

That's awesome. I had a friend who forgave that, that poster has issues, is super annoying, and ruins one of the coolest projects here every year.