McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[Cup or Bust]

I know this will sound crazy, and Oiler fans back me up on this, but having watched every game this year I honestly feel like his total could have been even higher right now. Earlier in the season when he seemed to be on the ice with Puljujarvi a lot, there were a LOT of first assist opportuinities lost that most players with hands AHL quality or better would scored to make happen. Plus all the pp time missed with Kane (I think Hyman is a great and hard-working player, but he doesn't have Kane's hands).

I believe McDavid playing so much with Puljujarvi last season ruined his season. It is no coincidence that at the end of the season when Puljujarvi was taken off his line he was on fire to finish the season, into the playoffs, and this season not having to play with him as much. McDavid would likely have gotten 135-140 last season in my opinion if not for Puljujarvi.

 

[psycat]

Very good. And I remember being ridiculed more than once in the past decade or so for saying that it's possible even in todays NHL of humanely evolved players.

Could imagine 180 being possible aswell, all it takes is a player that's as good as McDavid and then some, "only need" the extra odd assist here or there. Heck who knows maybe McDavid himself does it in the upcoming years.

Also reaffirm my belief that Gretzky/Lemieux would clear 180 pts with relative ease even today and that Crosby/Ovi are not really any better(not that it's a bad thing of course) than your average superstar of yesteryear, McDavid (for the most part) might very well be though.

Some of it is no doubt due to the rise in scoring though but hard to say just how much, probably the smaller goalie pads affects things. Might be I am contradicting myself somewhat here and that it looks like I am trying to downplay McDavids numbers but it's healthy questioning your own views I guess.

 

[Dallas Winston]

Very good. And I remember being ridiculed more than once in the past decade or so for saying that it's possible even in todays NHL of humanely evolved players.

Could imagine 180 being possible aswell, all it takes is a player that's as good as McDavid and then some, "only need" the extra odd assist here or there. Heck who knows maybe McDavid himself does it in the upcoming years.

Also reaffirm my belief that Gretzky/Lemieux would clear 180 pts with relative ease even today and that Crosby/Ovi are not really any better(not that it's a bad thing of course) than your average superstar of yesteryear, McDavid might very well be though.

Please crosby was scoring at a 1.60 ppg pace in his peak in a much lower scoring league with no 3 on 3 etc. Easily be right there with mcdavid if he was 25 today your insane

 

[Aaaaaaaaaaaaa]

Very good. And I remember being ridiculed more than once in the past decade or so for saying that it's possible even in todays NHL of humanely evolved players.

Could imagine 180 being possible aswell, all it takes is a player that's as good as McDavid and then some, "only need" the extra odd assist here or there. Heck who knows maybe McDavid himself does it in the upcoming years.

Also reaffirm my belief that Gretzky/Lemieux would clear 180 pts with relative ease even today and that Crosby/Ovi are not really any better(not that it's a bad thing of course) than your average superstar of yesteryear, McDavid might very well be though.

Mostly agree. I think the game has evolved in terms of speed you get from all four lines, and goaltending equipment has changed (not their talent as many say, but the padding is fractionally heavy). Plop Gretzky in now and he'd need to adjust.

The main thing I agree with is the 180 point theory. Imagine how many points McDavid could get if he had a d-man like Coffey (or to make it modern, Karlsson) feeding him with no two line pass in play? He gets five fast breaks and breakaways a game now from guys who can't make an outlet pass to save their lives.

 

[authentic]

Very good. And I remember being ridiculed more than once in the past decade or so for saying that it's possible even in todays NHL of humanely evolved players.

Could imagine 180 being possible aswell, all it takes is a player that's as good as McDavid and then some, "only need" the extra odd assist here or there. Heck who knows maybe McDavid himself does it in the upcoming years.

Also reaffirm my belief that Gretzky/Lemieux would clear 180 pts with relative ease even today and that Crosby/Ovi are not really any better(not that it's a bad thing of course) than your average superstar of yesteryear, McDavid (for the most part) might very well be though.

Some of it is no doubt due to the rise in scoring though but hard to say just how much, probably the smaller goalie pads affects things. Might be I am contradicting myself somewhat here and that it looks like I am trying to downplay McDavids numbers but it's healthy questioning your own views I guess.

Scoring going up obviously has an effect on the perception of players, McDavid would not be closing in on a 150 point season in the NHL 10 years ago. McDavid scoring 150 today wouldn't automatically mean Gretzky and Lemeiux would score 180 today either, their totals adjusted to todays scoring would have them around 170 at best but you could just as easily say they wouldn't be dominating McDavid today in a fast paced game where skating is such a major attribute whereas back in their time there were many high scoring players on the slow side.

When it comes to sustained offensive dominance McDavid will likely prove to be in his own tier between Gretzky/Lemieux and everyone else (except perhaps Gordie Howe). In terms of actual skill level there has never been a better offensive player.

 

[Video Nasty]

Please crosby was scoring at a 1.60 ppg pace in his peak in a much lower scoring league with no 3 on 3 etc. Easily be right there with mcdavid if he was 25 today your insane

Crosby did it for 99 games spread out over parts of 3 seasons. He also never had two complete halves of the same season where he averaged 1.5+ PPG, so he never really proved it was something he could do over an entire season.

McDavid has done it for his last 369 games, continuously from the second half of the 2017-2018 season through present day, which is over 5 years in real time, while playing all but 13 games.

Not comparable at all.

 

[Coffey]

Crosby did it for 99 games spread out over parts of 3 seasons. He also never had two complete halves of the same season where he averaged 1.5+ PPG, so he never really proved it was something he could do over an entire season.

McDavid has done it for his last 369 games, continuously from the second half of the 2017-2018 season through present day, which is over 5 years in real time, while playing all but 13 games.

Not comparable at all.

Cause McDavid was never asked to play defense, DUH!

 

[Dieseloil]

417 points in his last 250 games played for a 1.67 points per game pace.

320 points in his last 186 games played for a 1.72 points per game pace.

140+ points is a lock if he plays all 82 games this season.

Ya, 140 is what i’m thinking, or a little less, but it’s McDavid he may disappoint the jealous haters even more than that.

 

[Garbageyuk]

And you used evidence of last year of him having a 150 pace and not hitting it as evidence it won’t happen this year, while failing to notice he has held this pace for much longer.

You also aren’t an oiler fan, you’re in here waiting for him to fail so you can be like “I told you all! I’m the smartest in the room”

Or I just genuinely don’t think he’ll quite make it, even though I’d like to see it happen, and multiple people are attacking me for my opinion because they’re unable to handle opinions different than they’re own like adults are supposed to.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Please crosby was scoring at a 1.60 ppg pace in his peak in a much lower scoring league with no 3 on 3 etc. Easily be right there with mcdavid if he was 25 today your insane

You’re exaggerating.

 

[wetcoast]

Please crosby was scoring at a 1.60 ppg pace in his peak in a much lower scoring league with no 3 on 3 etc. Easily be right there with mcdavid if he was 25 today your insane

Crosby could hang with McDavid this year when looking at adjusted stats but McDavid is clearly ahead.

But the thing is that Crosby was literally doing it on his own in the 10-11 season.

I hope that McDavid hits 150 as it's an exciting milestone but 180 in todays NHL just isn't happening IMO.

 

[wetcoast]

You’re exaggerating.

Crosby adjusting has a line of 41 GP and 71 points in 10-11, McDavid is pacing for 145 adjusted points this year.

 

[Video Nasty]

Crosby adjusting has a line of 41 GP and 71 points in 10-11, McDavid is pacing for 145 adjusted points this year.

Difference is, Crosby bowed out after half a season and McDavid is still going strong.

What do the adjusted stats say when trying to wave away why Crosby won a single Art Ross past the age of 19 and finished behind in scoring races while still in his 20s to the likes of Benn and Tavares?

Or I just genuinely don’t think he’ll quite make it, even though I’d like to see it happen, and multiple people are attacking me for my opinion because they’re unable to handle opinions different than they’re own like adults are supposed to.

No one is attacking you. We’re just wondering why someone who watches McDavid night in and night out can’t notice what is happening in front of his eyes.

 

[Frosty415]

Please crosby was scoring at a 1.60 ppg pace in his peak in a much lower scoring league with no 3 on 3 etc. Easily be right there with mcdavid if he was 25 today your insane

Lmfao Crosby played post lockout in higher scoring eras.

This is the hill you die on, McDavid is a better hockey player than Crosby and it's not even close.

Just because he had a better supporting cast on his cup wins doesn't change anything, McDavid is better.

 

[Cup or Bust]

Lmfao Crosby played post lockout in higher scoring eras.

This is the hill you die on, McDavid is a better hockey player than Crosby and it's not even close.

Just because he had a better supporting cast on his cup wins doesn't change anything, McDavid is better.

I think Crosby is an amazing player and has had an amazing career but he has definitely had a better supporting cast, certainly much more well rounded teams. He was able to win a cup scoring 19 points in 24 games. I can't even imagine what kind of massive slump McDavid would need to be on to score only 19 points in 24 games and to be able to win a cup with that production, not a chance on the Oilers.

 

[gretzkyoilers]

Scoring going up obviously has an effect on the perception of players, McDavid would not be closing in on a 150 point season in the NHL 10 years ago. McDavid scoring 150 today wouldn't automatically mean Gretzky and Lemeiux would score 180 today either, their totals adjusted to todays scoring would have them around 170 at best but you could just as easily say they wouldn't be dominating McDavid today in a fast paced game where skating is such a major attribute whereas back in their time there were many high scoring players on the slow side.

When it comes to sustained offensive dominance McDavid will likely prove to be in his own tier between Gretzky/Lemieux and everyone else (except perhaps Gordie Howe). In terms of actual skill level there has never been a better offensive player.

You have to consider how much Gretzky outscored the rest of the league including his own teammates. In 84-85, 85-86, and 86-87 he had 52%, 54% and ~69% more points than the next player on the list (Kurri and Lemieux). Instead of adjusted point totals (useless) add say 40%-50% more points (to be conservative) to the highest scorer in a year where the spread is small, and that would be Gretzky and Lemieux.

 

[authentic]

Crosby did it for 99 games spread out over parts of 3 seasons. He also never had two complete halves of the same season where he averaged 1.5+ PPG, so he never really proved it was something he could do over an entire season.

McDavid has done it for his last 369 games, continuously from the second half of the 2017-2018 season through present day, which is over 5 years in real time, while playing all but 13 games.

Not comparable at all.

Then we can add the second half of 2009-10 for Crosby when he had 28 goals and 61 points in the last 40 games. Then had 68 in his first 46 in 2013-14 which is 1.47 points per game in a league that averaged 2.67 goals per game compared to 3.12 this season and 3.11 last season. So for 185 games straight he did have over a 1.5 average anyway in much lower scoring seasons.

When scoring levels are higher it's easier to put up consecutive 1.5 PPG stretches.

2009-10 2.77
2010-11 2.73
2011-12 2.66
2012-13 2.65
2013-14 2.67

2017-18 2.93
2018-19 2.98
2019-20 2.98
2020-21 2.90
2021-22 3.11
2022-23 3.12

 

[Empoleon8771]

Please crosby was scoring at a 1.60 ppg pace in his peak in a much lower scoring league with no 3 on 3 etc. Easily be right there with mcdavid if he was 25 today your insane

McDavid's 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 are better than anything Crosby has ever done.

Crosby at his best was roughly a 60 goal, 125 point player, which is what he did in the 2010 calendar year (80 games, 60 goals and 126 points split between the end of 09-10 and beginning of 10-11). McDavid right now is on pace to shatter that. It doesn't matter if scoring is higher, McDavid's literally on pace for 150 points right now and was on pace for 150 points in 2020-2021 as well.

Want to dismiss 2020-2021 because of Edmonton's division? Whatever, but what he's doing this year is special. What he's doing this year is the best offensive play of any player since Mario Lemieux put up 76 points in 43 games after coming out of retirement in the DPE.

 

[authentic]

You have to consider how much Gretzky outscored the rest of the league including his own teammates. In 84-85, 85-86, and 86-87 he had 52%, 54% and ~69% more points than the next player on the list (Kurri and Lemieux). Instead of adjusted point totals (useless) add say 40%-50% more points (to be conservative) to the highest scorer in a year where the spread is small, and that would be Gretzky and Lemieux.

Oh I'm fully aware of this, I'm saying there are other factors like a bigger talent pool, parity levels and a much quicker pace of game with faster players and especially defensemen, bigger and better goalies etc. All those things would cut into his dominance atleast a little, and not considering any of those factors he would top out at 170 adjusted.

McDavid's 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 are better than anything Crosby has ever done.

Crosby at his best was roughly a 60 goal, 125 point player, which is what he did in the 2010 calendar year (80 games, 60 goals and 126 points split between the end of 09-10 and beginning of 10-11). McDavid right now is on pace to shatter that. It doesn't matter if scoring is higher, McDavid's literally on pace for 150 points right now and was on pace for 150 points in 2020-2021 as well.

Want to dismiss 2020-2021 because of Edmonton's division? Whatever, but what he's doing this year is special. What he's doing this year is the best offensive play of any player since Mario Lemieux put up 76 points in 43 games after coming out of retirement in the DPE.

They are but it's not as big as the gap seems when ignoring scoring levels.

I already posted how after the same amount of games in their careers Crosby was just as far ahead of everyone else in points per game.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It is but it's not as big as the gap seems when ignoring scoring levels.

I already posted how after the same amount of games in their careers Crosby was just as far ahead of everyone else in points per game.

Based on how much top players are producing, I think something between 110 points and 115 points today is equal to 100 points in 2009. That's with looking at the point production leaders, but that also scales pretty decently well if you just look at increased goal production. But with that being said, McDavid putting up 150 points this year is still equal to about 135 points over a full season. That's better than what either Crosby or Ovechkin did at their best.

It's not as big of a difference as their raw production suggests, but McDavid is still clearly better.

If McDavid is hitting 150 points today, I think peak Crosby and Ovechkin over a full season are both in the upper 130s in points, probably like 138. That's about where I'd put the difference.

 

[authentic]

Based on how much top players are producing, I think something between 110 points and 115 points today is equal to 100 points in 2009. That's with looking at the point production leaders, but that also scales pretty decently well if you just look at increased goal production. But with that being said, McDavid putting up 150 points this year is still equal to about 135 points over a full season. That's better than what either Crosby or Ovechkin did at their best.

It's not as big of a difference as their raw production suggests, but McDavid is still clearly better.

That ratio would have 2009-2010 Crosby, who finished with 109 points, at about 123 points today, which seems believable to me.

I agree, but yes he would have to do that first which I think he has a very good shot at.

McDavid's career so far

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Playoffs

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Crosby's career so far

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Playoffs

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www.nhl.com

 

[Frosty415]

McDavid's 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 are better than anything Crosby has ever done.

Crosby at his best was roughly a 60 goal, 125 point player, which is what he did in the 2010 calendar year (80 games, 60 goals and 126 points split between the end of 09-10 and beginning of 10-11). McDavid right now is on pace to shatter that. It doesn't matter if scoring is higher, McDavid's literally on pace for 150 points right now and was on pace for 150 points in 2020-2021 as well.

Want to dismiss 2020-2021 because of Edmonton's division? Whatever, but what he's doing this year is special. What he's doing this year is the best offensive play of any player since Mario Lemieux put up 76 points in 43 games after coming out of retirement in the DPE.

Mad respect to you, great post.

 

[authentic]

McDavid's 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 are better than anything Crosby has ever done.

Crosby at his best was roughly a 60 goal, 125 point player, which is what he did in the 2010 calendar year (80 games, 60 goals and 126 points split between the end of 09-10 and beginning of 10-11). McDavid right now is on pace to shatter that. It doesn't matter if scoring is higher, McDavid's literally on pace for 150 points right now and was on pace for 150 points in 2020-2021 as well.

Want to dismiss 2020-2021 because of Edmonton's division? Whatever, but what he's doing this year is special. What he's doing this year is the best offensive play of any player since Mario Lemieux put up 76 points in 43 games after coming out of retirement in the DPE.

Or Jagr, who had 77 points in those same 43 games.

What Crosby did in 2010-11 is pretty special though and very comparable considering he didn't have a single other teammate over a point per game. I would argue it was atleast the best 25 game peak we've seen in the 2000s with 26 goals and 50 points. Scoring was also 2.73 compared to 2.76 in 2000-01, so also dead puck levels just like Crosby's entire peak from 2010-14.

 

[Video Nasty]

Then we can add the second half of 2009-10 for Crosby when he had 28 goals and 61 points in the last 40 games. Then had 68 in his first 46 in 2013-14 which is 1.47 points per game in a league that averaged 2.67 goals per game compared to 3.12 this season and 3.11 last season. So for 185 games straight he did have over a 1.5 average anyway in much lower scoring seasons.

When scoring levels are higher it's easier to put up consecutive 1.5 PPG stretches.

2009-10 2.77
2010-11 2.73
2011-12 2.66
2012-13 2.65
2013-14 2.67

2017-18 2.93
2018-19 2.98
2019-20 2.98
2020-21 2.90
2021-22 3.11
2022-23 3.12

Still less impressive on Crosby’s part. Half the games for starters.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Or Jagr, who had 77 points in those same 43 games.

What Crosby did in 2010-11 is pretty special though and very comparable considering he didn't have a single other teammate over a point per game. I would argue it was atleast the best 25 game peak we've seen in the 2000s with 26 goals and 50 points. Scoring was also 2.73 compared to 2.76 in 2000-01, so also dead puck levels just like Crosby's entire peak from 2010-14.

Nah, I don't agree with this. The difference between that year and the year before is that Malkin had a shitty year in 2010-2011 before his knee exploded, that's about it. He played with extremely similar linemates between those two years, he had Kunitz at LW in both years and switched from Guerin in 2009-2010 to Dupuis in 2010-2011.

I think Crosby would have put up very similar numbers over a full 2010-2011 season as what he put up in the 2010 calendar year, which I already mentioned was 60 goals and 126 points in 80 games. I think his entire 2010 calendar year performance is really good at illustrating how good of a player he was at his peak.