McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[cupface52]

Crosby played at a dominant level (as dominant as McDavid has been if not more) for 185 straight games. That's over 2 full seasons worth spanning from the calendar year of 2010 to 2014. So other than McDavid no one else since 2000 has anywhere close to that many straight games of producing way more points than everyone else except Forsberg from 2002-05.

Crosby has never played 185 straight games. Do you(others as well), genuinely believe it's fair to compare a player's ppg pace when he's plays partial seasons 22, 36(75% of season), 41 games to a player that plays entire seasons?

Last season, Ovechkin at new years had 50 points in 33 games, 1.52 ppg, 124 point pace, Had Ovechkin gotten injured on new years, and only played 33 games games total, would you be saying his season was better, or was his season better for playing the entire season and scoring 90 points in 77 games.


Only time pace is useful is when players play close to the same amount of games. ie, Ovechkin in '10, 3 less points than Sedin, played 10 less games. Ovechkin in '09, 3 less points than Malkin in 3 less games played(tiebreaker would go to Ovie). Crosby in '13, 4 less points than St. Louis in 12 less games. Crosby in '15, 3 less points than Benn in 5 less games.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

I think it's fair to suppose that the increase in league scoring levels since McDavid became the best player is at least partially because of McDavid himself. To my eye he has ushered in an era of extremely skilled offensive players that we just haven't seen in a long time, probably since the early 90s European influx. Gretzky and Lemieux were credited for driving the NHL towards an offence-first mindset with their generational offensive abilities in their heyday. If you subscribe to that theory, it's reasonable to wonder if McDavid is having the same effect.

I don't really see what's so different about the NHL of 2015, which saw an 87 point Art Ross winner, that Mcdavid wouldn't be scoring just as many points then as he is now. Further back, the game was increasingly more physical so I agree to an extent that he wouldn't be quite at these levels, but probably still close in any post-2004 season. A prime McDavid in the PP-heavy 2006-2008 years might be ripping off 170-175 under ideal circumstances.

 

[Offtheboard412]

I think it's fair to suppose that the increase in league scoring levels since McDavid became the best player is at least partially because of McDavid himself. To my eye he has ushered in an era of extremely skilled offensive players that we just haven't seen in a long time, probably since the early 90s European influx. Gretzky and Lemieux were credited for driving the NHL towards an offence-first mindset with their generational offensive abilities in their heyday. If you subscribe to that theory, it's reasonable to wonder if McDavid is having the same effect.

I don't really see what's so different about the NHL of 2015, which saw an 87 point Art Ross winner, that Mcdavid wouldn't be scoring just as many points then as he is now. Further back, the game was increasingly more physical so I agree to an extent that he wouldn't be quite at these levels, but probably still close in any post-2004 season. A prime McDavid in the PP-heavy 2006-2008 years might be ripping off 170-175 under ideal circumstances.

Well we did see McDavid play when scoring was lower, and he won 2 scoring titles with 100 points and 108 points. If you want to argue McDavid has improved since then that's fine, I would agree to an extent. But I don't buy that he's suddenly 50 points better than he was then.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Well we did see McDavid play when scoring was lower, and he won 2 scoring titles with 100 points and 108 points. If you want to argue McDavid has improved since then that's fine, I would agree to an extent. But I don't buy that he's suddenly 50 points better than he was then.

I actually would indeed argue that he's improved that much. Early career McDavid was comparable to Patrick Kane, present day McDavid is comparable to Mario Lemieux IMO. The 2023 version blows away the 2017 version, actually much the same way that 1992 Lemieux would blow away 1986 Lemieux, even though the younger version was also winning scoring titles (or would have but for prime Gretzky also being in the league).

 

[authentic]

Crosby has never played 185 straight games. Do you(others as well), genuinely believe it's fair to compare a player's ppg pace when he's plays partial seasons 22, 36(75% of season), 41 games to a player that plays entire seasons?

Last season, Ovechkin at new years had 50 points in 33 games, 1.52 ppg, 124 point pace, Had Ovechkin gotten injured on new years, and only played 33 games games total, would you be saying his season was better, or was his season better for playing the entire season and scoring 90 points in 77 games.


Only time pace is useful is when players play close to the same amount of games. ie, Ovechkin in '10, 3 less points than Sedin, played 10 less games. Ovechkin in '09, 3 less points than Malkin in 3 less games played(tiebreaker would go to Ovie). Crosby in '13, 4 less points than St. Louis in 12 less games. Crosby in '15, 3 less points than Benn in 5 less games.

Except it's not even close to the same thing. Crosby played at that level for 185 straight games (even if broken up by long breaks healing from concussions and neck injuries) not just 50. Every single person even the biggest Caps fans knew Ovechkin wasn't keeping that up, as impressive as it was.

In the same sense that people this season are booking McDavid for a 140+ season at the very least (I'm one of them assuming he plays all 82 and actually think he has a very good shot at 150) Crosby was likely not dipping low enough to finish with less than 120 points in 2010-11 which would've been extremely dominant. Even still comparing his points per game that season to the rest of the NHL after the same amount of games we have a level of dominance that slightly surpasses McDavid this season, but yes McDavid gets bonus points points for playing more games and if he continues anywhere close to this pace consider it the best full season since Lemieux which it likely will be.

 

[authentic]

I actually would indeed argue that he's improved that much. Early career McDavid was comparable to Patrick Kane, present day McDavid is comparable to Mario Lemieux IMO. The 2023 version blows away the 2017 version, actually much the same way that 1992 Lemieux would blow away 1986 Lemieux, even though the younger version was also winning scoring titles (or would have but for prime Gretzky also being in the league).

That would be a silly argument unless you also think 35 year old Crosby, 37 year old Ovechkin and 32 year old Karlsson have improved (of course I mean compared to Karlsson prior to his injury plagued seasons recently). League wide scoring is the biggest indicator of whether a player will put up an all time great point total, by far. Infact no all time great point total has ever been posted in lower scoring seasons just above or around dead puck era levels.

 

[Offtheboard412]

I actually would indeed argue that he's improved that much. Early career McDavid was comparable to Patrick Kane, present day McDavid is comparable to Mario Lemieux IMO. The 2023 version blows away the 2017 version, actually much the same way that 1992 Lemieux would blow away 1986 Lemieux, even though the younger version was also winning scoring titles (or would have but for prime Gretzky also being in the league).

Agree to disagree on that point. For me there's too many other guys who have seen their numbers go up to just brush it off as a coincidence. For example Kucherov was right around the 100 point mark/pace and then suddenly jumped up to 128 points (a total not even McDavid has surpassed....yet) and although he's struggled to play full seasons he has been at a 120 point pace through 40 games the past 2 years as well. Not to mention the large increase in the amount of players hitting 40 goals and or a point per game pace. The timing of this change coincided with the league crackdown on goalie equipment size, which along with a few other factors is what is really driving the change in scoring.

 

[authentic]

I think it's fair to suppose that the increase in league scoring levels since McDavid became the best player is at least partially because of McDavid himself. To my eye he has ushered in an era of extremely skilled offensive players that we just haven't seen in a long time, probably since the early 90s European influx. Gretzky and Lemieux were credited for driving the NHL towards an offence-first mindset with their generational offensive abilities in their heyday. If you subscribe to that theory, it's reasonable to wonder if McDavid is having the same effect.

I don't really see what's so different about the NHL of 2015, which saw an 87 point Art Ross winner, that Mcdavid wouldn't be scoring just as many points then as he is now. Further back, the game was increasingly more physical so I agree to an extent that he wouldn't be quite at these levels, but probably still close in any post-2004 season. A prime McDavid in the PP-heavy 2006-2008 years might be ripping off 170-175 under ideal circumstances.

The reduction of goalie equipment? The increase in empty net goals? Expansion teams?

NHL average goals per game

1974-75 3.43
1975-76 3.46
1976-77 3.32
1977-78 3.30
1978-79 3.50
1979-80 3.51
1980-81 3.84
1981-82 4.01
1982-83 3.86

Scoring was already really high and rising before Gretzky got to the NHL. It's far more likely that the big bump in scoring was due to the NHL expanding from 17 to 21 teams, with Gretzky himself having a slight effect. With the recent expansion and reduction of goalie equipment (scoring literally jumped the season after it was reduced) it's pretty obvious what the main reasons for the increase in scoring are. McDavid himself is definitely not responsible for that or else scoring this season would be higher than last season with McDavid scoring way more (3.11 last season 3.12 this season)

 

[cupface52]

Except it's not even close to the same thing. Crosby played at that level for 185 straight games (even if broken up by long breaks healing from concussions and neck injuries) not just 50. Every single person even the biggest Caps fans knew Ovechkin wasn't keeping that up, as impressive as it was.

In the same sense that people this season are booking McDavid for a 140+ season at the very least (I'm one of them assuming he plays all 82 and actually think he has a very good shot at 150) Crosby was likely not dipping low enough to finish with less than 120 points in 2010-11 which would've been extremely dominant. Even still comparing his points per game that season to the rest of the NHL after the same amount of games we have a level of dominance that slightly surpasses McDavid this season, but yes McDavid gets bonus points points for playing more games and if he continues anywhere close to this pace consider it the best full season since Lemieux which it likely will be.

Agree, that's because Ovechkin had a 15.8% 5v5 on-ice sh% until that point, which is not happening over a full season. It was guarnteed he would regress.

Crosby averaged 13.3% on-ice sh% over those 3 short seasons which is also not happening. Only three other elite scorers managed to average over 10% over those three years, Stamkos(11.4%) and St.Louis(11.2%), who had insane chemisty together, and Toews(10.1%).

Prorate Crosby to a 10.5% 5v5 on-ice sh%, which puts him easily above any elite scorer not including the Tampa duo, and he's looking at a 1.36ppg instead of 1.61 over those 3 years. Still the best scorer over those 3 years by a decent amount. Coincidently, it's the same type of lead he had over the top scorers in '13-'14, slightly better actually.

McDavid sits at 9.7% 5v5 on-ice sh% over the last 4 years in comparison.

 

[Rengorlex]

 

[authentic]

Agree, that's because Ovechkin had a 15.8% 5v5 on-ice sh% until that point, which is not happening over a full season. It was guarnteed he would regress.

Crosby averaged 13.3% on-ice sh% over those 3 short seasons which is also not happening. Only three other elite scorers managed to average over 10% over those three years, Stamkos(11.4%) and St.Louis(11.2%), who had insane chemisty together, and Toews(10.1%).

Prorate Crosby to a 10.5% 5v5 on-ice sh%, which puts him easily above any elite scorer not including the Tampa duo, and he's looking at a 1.36ppg instead of 1.61 over those 3 years. Still the best scorer over those 3 years by a decent amount. Coincidently, it's the same type of lead he had over the top scorers in '13-'14, slightly better actually.

McDavid sits at 9.7% 5v5 on-ice sh% over the last 4 years in comparison.

If he scored 1.36 the rest of the way that's 122 points. I said he would've scored 120 atleast. You can't just take years where he outscores his on ice% that consistently and say he would've scored 1.36 for the entire season, especially not when you're using 2013-14 as an example when he got sick near the end of the season and his pace went way down. It's a shame we couldn't have seen Crosby play those full seasons, but I don't think anyone who watched him back then would agree he would only score 110 or so points if he played the full season.

Now all we can do is hope McDavid gets 150, I hope he goes above and beyond and beats Yzermans 155 so he has the highest non Gretzky/Lemieux point toal.

 

[Bfan14]

Except it's not even close to the same thing. Crosby played at that level for 185 straight games (even if broken up by long breaks healing from concussions and neck injuries) not just 50. Every single person even the biggest Caps fans knew Ovechkin wasn't keeping that up, as impressive as it was.

In the same sense that people this season are booking McDavid for a 140+ season at the very least (I'm one of them assuming he plays all 82 and actually think he has a very good shot at 150) Crosby was likely not dipping low enough to finish with less than 120 points in 2010-11 which would've been extremely dominant. Even still comparing his points per game that season to the rest of the NHL after the same amount of games we have a level of dominance that slightly surpasses McDavid this season, but yes McDavid gets bonus points points for playing more games and if he continues anywhere close to this pace consider it the best full season since Lemieux which it likely will be.

So many players have hot starts and then slow down a ton afterwards. One of the seasons you're quoting was like 22 games no? The regular season is grueling and I give that an incredibly small likelyhood he kept up with that pace over 82 games ?

You cant discount having a ton of time off to heal and rest and then start fresh again

 

[Kyle McMahon]

The reduction of goalie equipment? The increase in empty net goals? Expansion teams?

NHL average goals per game

1974-75 3.43
1975-76 3.46
1976-77 3.32
1977-78 3.30
1978-79 3.50
1979-80 3.51
1980-81 3.84
1981-82 4.01
1982-83 3.86

Scoring was already really high and rising before Gretzky got to the NHL. It's far more likely that the big bump in scoring was due to the NHL expanding from 17 to 21 teams, with Gretzky himself having a slight effect. With the recent expansion and reduction of goalie equipment (scoring literally jumped the season after it was reduced) it's pretty obvious what the main reasons for the increase in scoring are. McDavid himself is definitely not responsible for that or else scoring this season would be higher than last season with McDavid scoring way more (3.11 last season 3.12 this season)

That would be a silly argument unless you also think 35 year old Crosby, 37 year old Ovechkin and 32 year old Karlsson have improved (of course I mean compared to Karlsson prior to his injury plagued seasons recently). League wide scoring is the biggest indicator of whether a player will put up an all time great point total, by far. Infact no all time great point total has ever been posted in lower scoring seasons just above or around dead puck era levels.

Agree to disagree on that point. For me there's too many other guys who have seen their numbers go up to just brush it off as a coincidence. For example Kucherov was right around the 100 point mark/pace and then suddenly jumped up to 128 points (a total not even McDavid has surpassed....yet) and although he's struggled to play full seasons he has been at a 120 point pace through 40 games the past 2 years as well. Not to mention the large increase in the amount of players hitting 40 goals and or a point per game pace. The timing of this change coincided with the league crackdown on goalie equipment size, which along with a few other factors is what is really driving the change in scoring.

Valid counter-points raised, and I'm not expressly crediting McDavid for increasing league scoring, but the theory that his presence has had an effect is worth exploring. Can transcendent players (maybe too early to declare McDavid one of them, but it's arguable) really tilt the direction of the league in favour of more offense?

Well, the emergence of Bobby Orr - and specifically his unprecedented ability to drive offense from the defenseman position - coincided with a significant increase in league-wide offense. Rapid expansion occurring at the same time muddies the water, but even after the league settled back down and expansion teams matured in the future, the days of d-men not crossing the opposing blueline were gone forever.

Even as scoring increased though, great defensive teams were still the teams that won the Cups (Flyers, Canadiens, Islanders). That changed with Gretzky and the Oilers. Gretzky's incomparable ability to produce offense paved the way for the first offense-first dynasty, and the NHL truly became a run-and-gun offensive league during his prime, and continuing on through Lemieux's prime. The absorption of the WHA is difficult to separate from Gretzky's debut since they occurred simultaneously, and it could very well have been the bigger factor, but the offense-dominated play did continue long after the merger.

The NHL again aggressively expanded in the early 90's, but this time the big scoring bump didn't occur. Or if it did, it was confined to the 1992-93 season. Scoring instead started to rapidly decline after the 1995-96 season. Coincidentally (or not), that was Lemieux's last incredible season. As Gretzky got old and Lemieux retired for the first time, league wide offense diminished.

Outside of those first couple post-lockout years when massive amounts of PPs were being awarded, scoring stayed fairly low up until McDavid emerged, then quickly took off. Was goaltending equipment size being reduced really the main reason for the uptick? Maybe, obviously had some effect, but I think we'd have seen one sudden bump and then a leveling off if that were the case. Instead, offense continues to climb. Covid disruption was obviously a huge variable thrown in there for good measure, so that's another thing to consider.

These might be mainly coincidences that just fit together nicely, but I think there's some validity to the idea that players like Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, and perhaps now McDavid, simply "raise the boats" around them and their presence increases offense for everyone. Why are teams so much more willing to play riskier run-and-gun hockey right now compared to ten years ago? I personally think there's just a higher than normal level of offensive skill throughout the league today, with McDavid leading the charge, whereas defense and goaltending had the edge for most of the time between Lemieux and McDavid's prime years.

To look at another sport, basketball suddenly evolved into a 3-pointer contest when Steph Curry showed up and was quickly revealed to be the best ever at that particular skill. Everyone else tried to copy and keep up. McDavid is generally agreed upon as the fastest puck-carrier ever. Is everyone else trying to copy and keep up? Looks like some are.

 

[Calderon]

Head injuries might play a non-insignificant part in the rise of scoring. The awereness of what concussions in contact sports cause to the brain has made enforces virtually a thing of the past making way to skilled players to take their roster spots. Skilled players score more than fighters, hence more goals.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

I think it's fair to suppose that the increase in league scoring levels since McDavid became the best player is at least partially because of McDavid himself. To my eye he has ushered in an era of extremely skilled offensive players that we just haven't seen in a long time, probably since the early 90s European influx. Gretzky and Lemieux were credited for driving the NHL towards an offence-first mindset with their generational offensive abilities in their heyday. If you subscribe to that theory, it's reasonable to wonder if McDavid is having the same effect.

I don't really see what's so different about the NHL of 2015, which saw an 87 point Art Ross winner, that Mcdavid wouldn't be scoring just as many points then as he is now. Further back, the game was increasingly more physical so I agree to an extent that he wouldn't be quite at these levels, but probably still close in any post-2004 season. A prime McDavid in the PP-heavy 2006-2008 years might be ripping off 170-175 under ideal circumstances.

The big difference is the shrinking of goalie pads in 17-18. Lines up pretty much exactly with the increase in scoring.

 

[authentic]

Valid counter-points raised, and I'm not expressly crediting McDavid for increasing league scoring, but the theory that his presence has had an effect is worth exploring. Can transcendent players (maybe too early to declare McDavid one of them, but it's arguable) really tilt the direction of the league in favour of more offense?

Well, the emergence of Bobby Orr - and specifically his unprecedented ability to drive offense from the defenseman position - coincided with a significant increase in league-wide offense. Rapid expansion occurring at the same time muddies the water, but even after the league settled back down and expansion teams matured in the future, the days of d-men not crossing the opposing blueline were gone forever.

Even as scoring increased though, great defensive teams were still the teams that won the Cups (Flyers, Canadiens, Islanders). That changed with Gretzky and the Oilers. Gretzky's incomparable ability to produce offense paved the way for the first offense-first dynasty, and the NHL truly became a run-and-gun offensive league during his prime, and continuing on through Lemieux's prime. The absorption of the WHA is difficult to separate from Gretzky's debut since they occurred simultaneously, and it could very well have been the bigger factor, but the offense-dominated play did continue long after the merger.

The NHL again aggressively expanded in the early 90's, but this time the big scoring bump didn't occur. Or if it did, it was confined to the 1992-93 season. Scoring instead started to rapidly decline after the 1995-96 season. Coincidentally (or not), that was Lemieux's last incredible season. As Gretzky got old and Lemieux retired for the first time, league wide offense diminished.

Outside of those first couple post-lockout years when massive amounts of PPs were being awarded, scoring stayed fairly low up until McDavid emerged, then quickly took off. Was goaltending equipment size being reduced really the main reason for the uptick? Maybe, obviously had some effect, but I think we'd have seen one sudden bump and then a leveling off if that were the case. Instead, offense continues to climb. Covid disruption was obviously a huge variable thrown in there for good measure, so that's another thing to consider.

These might be mainly coincidences that just fit together nicely, but I think there's some validity to the idea that players like Orr, Gretzky, Lemieux, and perhaps now McDavid, simply "raise the boats" around them and their presence increases offense for everyone. Why are teams so much more willing to play riskier run-and-gun hockey right now compared to ten years ago? I personally think there's just a higher than normal level of offensive skill throughout the league today, with McDavid leading the charge, whereas defense and goaltending had the edge for most of the time between Lemieux and McDavid's prime years.

To look at another sport, basketball suddenly evolved into a 3-pointer contest when Steph Curry showed up and was quickly revealed to be the best ever at that particular skill. Everyone else tried to copy and keep up. McDavid is generally agreed upon as the fastest puck-carrier ever. Is everyone else trying to copy and keep up? Looks like some are.

Sure but that's a lot different than saying he would have these same point totals in a league where literally every last player was scoring considerably less, including younger versions of currently aging players. He most definitely would not unless transported in a time machine scenario where they never got to view a player with speed and skill on that level before nevermind study game tape and have hours of practice trying to stop him already. Even in that scenario I don't think he gets 150 points 10 years ago.

 

[authentic]

So many players have hot starts and then slow down a ton afterwards. One of the seasons you're quoting was like 22 games no? The regular season is grueling and I give that an incredibly small likelyhood he kept up with that pace over 82 games ?

You cant discount having a ton of time off to heal and rest and then start fresh again

I don't think he would keep the same pace either, he wouldn't have needed to either to be similarly dominant over his peers even after their entire careers... All he would've needed to do was play at a 1.4 point per game pace in the remaining games, even a 1.36 for the remaining games would have him at similar gap over his peers in points per game in the regular season, and he has an even bigger gap in the playoffs with triple the sample size. There is no argument that his entire point per game for his peak seasons would've been just 1.36 points per game as his entire career average was higher than that after his 8th season which included the full 2013-14 season.

McDavid so far has a better peak playoff performance and 56 game COVID season and will likely have the best 82 game season, but so far the bigger the sample gets, i.e their entire regular season and playoff career after 8 seasons Crosby is actually more dominant on a per game basis and while playing more games in the regular season and playoffs.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

The big difference is the shrinking of goalie pads in 17-18. Lines up pretty much exactly with the increase in scoring.

But that doesn't easily explain why scoring has continued to increase in the years since. Half of the jump in overall scoring rates from 16-17 to present day occurred in that transition season, but what about the other half? Have shooters just become a little better at exploiting smaller equipment with each passing year rather than goalies adapting over time? That's a possibility.

 

[Kyle McMahon]

Sure but that's a lot different than saying he would have these same point totals in a league where literally every last player was scoring considerably less, including younger versions of currently aging players. He most definitely would not unless transported in a time machine scenario where they never got to view a player with speed and skill on that level before nevermind study game tape and have hours of practice trying to stop him already. Even in that scenario I don't think he gets 150 points 10 years ago.

I wasn't meaning to suggest he'd have 150 points and everyone else would stay the same. I think he'd be capable of it, and other teams would loosen the reigns on their elite players to follow suit. Or, maybe the defensive structure and/or physicality of the elite teams from 10 years ago would indeed be successful in keeping him from ever going nuts offensively like he is now. The reason I tend towards the first scenario is that he managed a 100 point season and Art Ross win in the still-somewhat-defensive 16-17 season when he was 19-20 years old and a significantly "worse" player.

 

[McVespa99]

Well we did see McDavid play when scoring was lower, and he won 2 scoring titles with 100 points and 108 points. If you want to argue McDavid has improved since then that's fine, I would agree to an extent. But I don't buy that he's suddenly 50 points better than he was then.

You dont buy that a player improved by 50% at his peak? Most good players do that.

 

[authentic]

I wasn't meaning to suggest he'd have 150 points and everyone else would stay the same. I think he'd be capable of it, and other teams would loosen the reigns on their elite players to follow suit. Or, maybe the defensive structure and/or physicality of the elite teams from 10 years ago would indeed be successful in keeping him from ever going nuts offensively like he is now. The reason I tend towards the first scenario is that he managed a 100 point season and Art Ross win in the still-somewhat-defensive 16-17 season when he was 19-20 years old and a significantly "worse" player.

Crosby scored 120 points as a 19 year old, the reason he never topped it is partially injuries but also scoring going down despite the fact that he was much better in his 20s. McDavid is much better than he used to be for sure, but like I said in seasons where scoring levels were similar to what they were 10 years ago or even slightly higher no single player in NHL history ever scored 130 points let alone 150. That's really got to be the deciding factor on whether or not he would've come close to doing it back then. All that matters really is that his level of dominance would've probably remained pretty similar anyway.

 

[authentic]

But that doesn't easily explain why scoring has continued to increase in the years since. Half of the jump in overall scoring rates from 16-17 to present day occurred in that transition season, but what about the other half? Have shooters just become a little better at exploiting smaller equipment with each passing year rather than goalies adapting over time? That's a possibility.

Expansion teams. Scoring went up again last season when a second expansion team was added which has continued into this season so far. Thins out the talent pool a little.

I think any notable increase in talent level is arguably from the back end and 3rd and 4th liners being faster and more skilled than ever, but that wouldn't necessarily be reflected in the overall scoring levels and especially not to this extent. The reasons are pretty obvious IMO, reducing the size of goalie equipment and expansion and probably the crackdown on headshots and obstruction helps as well .

 

[Hynh]

IMO scoring fluctuations are driven by the economics of the league. When the 2013 CBA outlawed 9+ year contracts with back diving salary structures and changed the revenue split to 50/50 an increase in scoring was inevitable, even if it didn't look that way at the time.

Everyone knows you pay your stars first and then the rest of the team. When the long contracts went away, the stars had to start taking up a bigger chunk of the cap. These raises would no longer be covered by annual cap increases, especially once the NHLPA clamped down on escrow by not overusing the escalator. What happened after that was the veterans got squeezed out in favor of cheap ELCs. Those late 20s veterans were the type you built a 3-2 team with. The cheap kids that took their place are the type you hope you can build a 4-3 team with.

Expansion and rule changes don't hurt but it's not a coincidence that the last time a team with a back diving contract made the finals was the 2016-17 season right as scoring started to rise.

 

[ricky0034]

as someone that was here in the early 2010s talking about this stuff I remember arguing with people that were talking about Crosby in his partial seasons all the time like he was a 130-140 point guy

then what happens when he eventually actually plays a full season? his precious pace instantly drops by like 30 points

shocking stuff

 

[authentic]

IMO scoring fluctuations are driven by the economics of the league. When the 2013 CBA outlawed 9+ year contracts with back diving salary structures and changed the revenue split to 50/50 an increase in scoring was inevitable, even if it didn't look that way at the time.

Everyone knows you pay your stars first and then the rest of the team. When the long contracts went away, the stars had to start taking up a bigger chunk of the cap. These raises would no longer be covered by annual cap increases, especially once the NHLPA clamped down on escrow by not overusing the escalator. What happened after that was the veterans got squeezed out in favor of cheap ELCs. Those late 20s veterans were the type you built a 3-2 team with. The cheap kids that took their place are the type you hope you can build a 4-3 team with.

Expansion and rule changes don't hurt but it's not a coincidence that the last time a team with a back diving contract made the finals was the 2016-17 season right as scoring started to rise.

So you don't think the reduction in goalie equipment had anything to do with it? That's easily the main reason.