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McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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authentic said:
If he scored 1.36 the rest of the way that's 122 points. I said he would've scored 120 atleast. You can't just take years where he outscores his on ice% that consistently and say he would've scored 1.36 for the entire season, especially not when you're using 2013-14 as an example when he got sick near the end of the season and his pace went way down. It's a shame we couldn't have seen Crosby play those full seasons, but I don't think anyone who watched him back then would agree he would only score 110 or so points if he played the full season.

Now all we can do is hope McDavid gets 150, I hope he goes above and beyond and beats Yzermans 155 so he has the highest non Gretzky/Lemieux point toal.
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I'm not taking years, it's partial seasons where he had a highly inflated ONsh%, he had extreme puck luck during those partial seasons. Each season is a differnt animal, there's different variables, when you play 20, 35, 40, games, you can't say you're doing anything consistently.

Would you have prefered I used '09-'10, where Crosby finished 3rd in scoring, which he also happened to score 1.35.ppg, and league scoring was slightly higher than those 3 years. '13-'14 had near idential scoring to those three years.

Edit: just checked, If you removed the 10 last games of '13-'14, Crosby's ppg goes from 1.3 to 1.34, hardly a difference of his pace "going way down". You want to remove the last 21 games, march onwards, where he had 24 points, his pace jumps to 1.355.

Had Crosby done anything like this for close to an entire season, I'd be much more inclined to side with you. When you have an abnormally high sh% for part of the season, odds are your sh% will be lower than average for the rest and it averages out, it's the law of averages. Math/stats and History show that he doesn't come close to keeping up with those numbers over a full season, I trust those much more than feelings.
 
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cupface52 said:
I'm not taking years, it's partial seasons where he had a highly inflated ONsh%, he had extreme puck luck during those partial seasons. Each season is a differnt animal, there's different variables, when you play 20, 35, 40, games, you can't say you're doing anything consistently.

Would you have prefered I used '09-'10, where Crosby finished 3rd in scoring, which he also happened to score 1.35.ppg, and league scoring was slightly higher than those 3 years. '13-'14 had near idential scoring to those three years.

Edit: just checked, If you removed the 10 last games of '13-'14, Crosby's ppg goes from 1.3 to 1.34, hardly a difference of his pace "going way down". You want to remove the last 21 games, march onwards, where he had 24 points, his pace jumps to 1.355.

Had Crosby done anything like this for close to an entire season, I'd be much more inclined to side with you. When you have an abnormally high sh% for part of the season, odds are your sh% will be lower than average for the rest and it averages out, it's the law of averages. Math/stats and History show that he doesn't come close to keeping up with those numbers over a full season, I trust those much more than feelings.
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Who said he would keep it up? Clearly you haven't been reading my posts closely enough. His career average after 9 seasons, including the entire 2013-14 season was 1.40 points per game and you want us to believe he would've scored at 1.36 at his peak 23, 24 and 25 year old seasons?
 
authentic said:
Who said he would keep it up? Clearly you haven't been reading my posts closely enough. His career average after 9 seasons, including the entire 2013-14 season was 1.40 points per game and you want us to believe he would've scored at 1.36 at his peak 23, 24 and 25 year old seasons?
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I'm looking at Crosby's aged 22 and 26 seasons, where he averaged 1.32ppg, overall league scoring, looking at his pace, his 5on5 on-ice sh% and normalizing it, while being very generous about it. I've looked at seasons where Crosby has played close to full seasons and compared him to his compitition. That's what I've based my opinion on, zero feelings involved.

It's a more realistic scenario than Crosby averaging 120+ point seasons in the lowest scoring seasons of his career, and basing it on nothing more than a subjective opinion.
 
cupface52 said:
I'm looking at Crosby's aged 22 and 26 seasons, where he averaged 1.32ppg, overall league scoring, looking at his pace, his 5on5 on-ice sh% and normalizing it, while being very generous about it. I've looked at seasons where Crosby has played close to full seasons and compared him to his compitition. That's what I've based my opinion on, zero feelings involved.

It's a more realistic scenario than Crosby averaging 120+ point seasons in the lowest scoring seasons of his career, and basing it on nothing more than a subjective opinion.
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I think you're in the minority that Crosby in those peak seasons wasn't any better than he was before or after, before reaching his peak as a player, and then after concussions he didn't even play with the same intensity anymore. He literally was a more passive player who picked his spots more often. It does not add up that he would've just remained a 110 point player during that stretch. You can't completely ignore that his career points per game was 1.40 after the 2013-14 season either. No one knows for sure but you definitely don't get to claim you're correct here either and like I said I would bet your opinion is in the minority.
 
authentic said:
I think you're in the minority that Crosby in those peak seasons wasn't any better than he was before or after, before reaching his peak as a player, and then after concussions he didn't even play with the same intensity anymore. He literally was a more passive player who picked his spots more often. It does not add up that he would've just remained a 110 point player during that stretch. You can't completely ignore that his career points per game was 1.40 after the 2013-14 season either. No one knows for sure but you definitely don't get to claim you're correct here either and like I said I would bet your opinion is in the minority.
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Imo a fair projection for Crosby (for 2010/2011 at least) is between 115 and 125 points. During a similar time frame, with similar scoring levels we saw Ovechkin go for 109 in 72 (122 in 82 pace) and Malkin went for 109 in 75 (119 in 82 pace). So this kind of pace was not unprecedented for that era. Would Crosby have slowed down? More than likely yes. But his pace was so high for those 41 games that it would have afforded him some leeway to have a cold stretch and still finish with some very impressive numbers. The same goes for McDavid this year. He could drop all the way down to a ppg for like 10-15 games and he would still end up at 130 points at least.
 
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Offtheboard412 said:
Imo a fair projection for Crosby (for 2010/2011 at least) is between 115 and 125 points. During a similar time frame, with similar scoring levels we saw Ovechkin go for 109 in 72 (122 in 82 pace) and Malkin went for 109 in 75 (119 in 82 pace). So this kind of pace was not unprecedented for that era. Would Crosby have slowed down? More than likely yes. But his pace was so high for those 41 games that it would have afforded him some leeway to have a cold stretch and still finish with some very impressive numbers. The same goes for McDavid this year. He could drop all the way down to a ppg for like 10-15 games and he would still end up at 130 points at least.
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I would say that's right on the money. Not very likely he goes below or above that range. I think he could've pulled off atleast 2 seasons in that range out of the 3. That's easily the level of player he was.
 
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authentic said:
I think you're in the minority that Crosby in those peak seasons wasn't any better than he was before or after, before reaching his peak as a player, and then after concussions he didn't even play with the same intensity anymore. He literally was a more passive player who picked his spots more often. It does not add up that he would've just remained a 110 point player during that stretch. You can't completely ignore that his career points per game was 1.40 after the 2013-14 season either. No one knows for sure but you definitely don't get to claim you're correct here either and like I said I would bet your opinion is in the minority.
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I dunno man. On-ice shooting % is something that stays in a pretty narrow band. The best players are generally 10-11% and that is hundreds of players over dozens of seasons we have data on. The odd guy hits 12% over a season but 13% is pretty unheard of.

Its completely fair to state that Crosby wouldn't have been able to maintain his pace when he was being helped by a 13% on ice shooting percentage.
 
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Bank Shot said:
I dunno man. On-ice shooting % is something that stays in a pretty narrow band. The best players are generally 10-11% and that is hundreds of players over dozens of seasons we have data on. The odd guy hits 12% over a season but 13% is pretty unheard of.

Its completely fair to state that Crosby wouldn't have been able to maintain his pace when he was being helped by a 13% on ice shooting percentage.
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I don't know man, I never said he would maintain his pace. :laugh:

I'm arguing against the idea that he would've scored below a 1.4 points per game for those full seasons. Not a chance that was happening.
 
Crazy pace for McD,
whats really stands out for me is that he is 4th in the league in even strength goals and 5th in even strength points, crazy pace is driven by crazy power play.
 
Another night, another point. That’s at least one point in 47 out of 52 games so far. He’s on a 14 game point streak and this comes after a single scoreless night snapped a 17 game point streak.

Up to 94 points in 52 games (1.808 PPG).

30 games remain.

Needs 56 in 30 to hit 150 (1.867 PPG).
Needs 46 in 30 to hit 140 (1.533 PPG).
Needs 36 in 30 to hit 130 (1.200 PPG).

Still needs another couple of 5-6 point games to give some breathing room if he’s gunning for 150.

Will be interesting in the short term to see if he scores 11 points in his next 4 games to match the 105 in 56 he put up in 2020-2021.
 
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Nathaniel Skywalker said:
Starting to cool down
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He is slowing down though. As much as people keep denying it, he is. 1 assist in the last two games against incredibly weak opponents.

Sorry but it’s the truth. We will see if he can pick it up or goes back to his average and ends up with around 126
 
Oilers are bad said:
He is slowing down though. As much as people keep denying it, he is. 1 assist in the last two games against incredibly weak opponents.

Sorry but it’s the truth. We will see if he can pick it up or goes back to his average and ends up with around 126
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LOL. You dont have anything better to do eh?
 
Still looks drunk from the Allstar game, scoring typically drops in the final few months so will see what happens
 
Oilers are bad said:
?

I would like to discuss the actual thread, not talk about an old poster.
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Ok. It reminds of a few times McDavid has has a run of a handful games where he has more pedestrian stats, and people have claimed at these times over the years that Kucherov, Mackinnon, Matthews, Draisaitl, Makar, abs recently Jason Robertson aware at his level, ir even better.

As if a sample size of a few games compromises a bigger one of his last few hundred.

Yes, his pace has slowed to a paltry 148 pts from 155 in this recent “slump”. But he’s never not come out of a slump. Your only hope is injury. I’m sure you do hope it, too.
 
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