McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[Mulletman]

By scoring just a point per game in his last 29 games, McDavid would hit 126 points this year. That's 3 more points than he's ever had in a season before. It's safe to say that nothing is stopping a 82 game playing McDavid from hitting at least 130 points this season. 150 will still be close, but if everything goes right we'll see it happen.

Hopefully McDavid will feel extra motivated to hit 100 points when he visits Montreal next. And then hit 800 career points the following game at home. And then follow it up with another 3 point game against the Rangers in order to hit at least 106 points in 56 games this season. That way all the jobbers on HfBoards can't argue that Mcdavid peaked during the covid season against weak Canadian teams.

 

[Zerotonine]

He will most likely sit the last game or 2 for maintenence days esp if the games are meaningless In oilers playoff position.

So he is gonna have to hit 150 in 80 games.

Tough go but he continues to do what every one says no way he can......

Don't bet against it is all I can say.....

 

[Coffey]

He will most likely sit the last game or 2 for maintenence days esp if the games are meaningless In oilers playoff position.

So he is gonna have to hit 150 in 80 games.

Tough go but he continues to do what every one says no way he can......

Don't bet against it is all I can say.....

He doesn't do maintenance.
He ain't no Kawhi.

 

[North Cole]

Called it. He’s slowing down, and yes, his slumps are better than a lot of players’ hot streaks, but that won’t get him to 150.

The house always wins. Ridiculous how some posters here kept insisting he’s an absolute lock to do something incredibly unlikely, something that only 5 players ever have done, something that has never been seen in the modern NHL. Big crow feast at the end of the season for a few in here, but I expect them to backpedal already and no show when the time comes.

I wouldn’t care at all if they weren’t so obnoxious and condescending to me about it, but

What people were saying to you was that he was a lock for >130 because you were coming in with the idea that he would be in the 120-130 range, no one with any credibility thinks he's a lock for 150. Even that posters model had 150 at 25% chance if he plays all the games.

 

[Zerotonine]

He doesn't do maintenance.
He ain't no Kawhi.

I get it, but it's not his call. It's woodcrofts

 

[Coffey]

I get it, but it's not his call. It's woodcrofts

He only sat the very last game last season, so you could be right.
But one game won't set his points back too far. Unless he's close to a record, Woody will let him play.

 

[jigglysquishy]

After 53 games
42 goals 55 assists 97 points

Last year after 53
29 goals 48 assists 77 points

 

[Garbageyuk]

You're so invested in trying to prove your bad takes aren't actually bad takes and desperately hoping McDavid won't hit 150 even though you can't distinguish 2 wildly different sample sizes from one another.

Expecting a legendary disappearing act from you once he does in fact achieve it.

I don’t recognize the difference sample sizes? That’s a narrative you made up on your own. I still don’t think he does it. I don’t think he would have stayed on pace for it in the covid season if it was a full season either.

I’m stating an opinion and you all are losing your minds over it.

 

[D1az]

That short-handed play and assist against Ottawa today was just ridiculous. I could put that in my long list of favourite plays by this man.
Such a great time to watch hockey.

 

[Zerotonine]

He only sat the very last game last season, so you could be right.
But one game won't set his points back too far. Unless he's close to a record, Woody will let him play.

No your probably right, but 150 isn't a record, not really even a milestone either. It's just something that hasn't been done in a super long time that's why I beleive he sits

 

[Garbageyuk]

What people were saying to you was that he was a lock for >130 because you were coming in with the idea that he would be in the 120-130 range, no one with any credibility thinks he's a lock for 150. Even that posters model had 150 at 25% chance if he plays all the games.

There were people who said it. There’s been people who said he’d increase his pace from where he was at as the season went on as well. Another poster said he thought he’d hit 160-180. Nobody cared about those, but people have been losing their shit over my opinion.

 

[Kerberos]

I don’t recognize the difference sample sizes? That’s a narrative you made up on your own. I still don’t think he does it. I don’t think he would have stayed on pace for it in the covid season if it was a full season either.

I’m stating an opinion and you all are losing your minds over it.

This thread is littered with you drawing parallels between this season and last year while claiming that because McDavid didn't hit 150 points based on his pace in Nov/Dec 2021 after 30 games, his pace after 45 games in January 2023 suggests the same is going to transpire.

So no, you don't understand sample sizes or pace because people literally argued with you for pages in this very thread as you tried to concoct a narrative around both seasons being comparable when they're incredibly different.

 

[jigglysquishy]

Assuming he plays 82 he needs

23 in 29 games (0.79 PPG) to hit 120. This would be the worst 29 game stretch of his career.

33 in 29 (1.14 PPG) to hit 130. Adjusting for scoring levels, this would be the worst 29 game stretch since he was a rookie. For reference, 18 players are playing at this rate or better this season.

43 in 29 (1.49 PPG) to hit 140. This would be one of the lower stretches in his last 5 years, but it wouldn't be out of line. Only 3 players are playing at this level: McDavid, Draisailt, Kucherov.

53 in 29 (1.83 PPG) to hit 150. This would be one of the better stretches he's had. McDavid 2021, McDavid 2023, and Lemieux 1996 are the only players to do this over a season since 1993. It is very unlikely he does this.

The money is in the 138-146 range over 82.

 

[Video Nasty]

There were people who said it. There’s been people who said he’d increase his pace from where he was at as the season went on as well. Another poster said he thought he’d hit 160-180. Nobody cared about those, but people have been losing their shit over my opinion.

You’re right, no one cared about a few unreasonable opinions, yet you’ve been spending months constructing your stance entirely around them.

What I have noticed is that you keep quoting different numbers, the sure sign of someone seeing gremlins on the wing of the plane.

97 points my boy. 29 games to go.

 

[Garbageyuk]

This thread is littered with you drawing parallels between this season and last year while claiming that because McDavid didn't hit 150 points based on his pace in Nov/Dec 2021 after 30 games, his pace after 45 games in January 2023 suggests the same is going to transpire.

So no, you don't understand sample sizes or pace because people literally argued with you for pages in this very thread as you tried to concoct a narrative around both seasons being comparable when they're incredibly different.

No, I said that is one of the reasons why I don’t think he will do it, meaning my opinion. I didn’t assert that as irrevocable proof why he won’t do it this year. There is a difference, but I wouldn’t expect you to acknowledge that because then you couldn’t throw a hissy fit and argue with me about it.

 

[Garbageyuk]

You’re right, no one cared about a few unreasonable opinions, yet you’ve been spending months constructing your stance entirely around them.

What I have noticed is that you keep quoting different numbers, the sure sign of someone seeing gremlins on the wing of the plane.

97 points my boy. 29 games to go.

This is why I’ll be here. Your inability to tolerate an opinion that differs from your own is frankly childish. He won’t make it. Don’t skip out on the big crow feast when the time comes.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

This is why I’ll be here. Your inability to tolerate an opinion that differs from your own is frankly childish. He won’t make it. Don’t skip out on the big crow feast when the time comes.

You seem to have a hard time tolerating anyone else who has the opinion that he will make it.

As evident in you constantly coming back when he has a 1 point game and saying 'He's slowing down".

 

[Garbageyuk]

You seem to have a hard time tolerating anyone else who has the opinion that he will make it.

As evident in you constantly coming back when he has a 1 point game and saying 'He's slowing down".

I’m not the one repeatedly quoting the same posters. All these interactions have been initiated repeatedly by the other posters. I also haven’t been condescending and belligerent repeatedly like some others. I’ve simply stated my opinion and responded to others who seem to take offense to it.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

I’m not the one repeatedly quoting the same posters. All these interactions have been initiated repeatedly by the other posters. I also haven’t been condescending and belligerent repeatedly like some others. I’ve simply stated my opinion and responded to others who seem to take offense to it.

You haven't been reading your own posts I take it, you've been equally obnoxious the other way, and you still haven't realized you got so much pushback because you said he slowed down after a 1.5 pace for 25 games last year so he might not even hit 130.

Hes now on a 150 pace after 53 games.

"sLoWiNg dOwn!1!11"

 

[Garbageyuk]

You haven't been reading your own posts I take it, you've been equally obnoxious the other way, and you still haven't realized you got so much pushback because you said he slowed down after a 1.5 pace for 25 games last year so he might not even hit 130.

Hes now on a 150 pace after 53 games.

"sLoWiNg dOwn!1!11"

The fact is that I’m not the one attacking someone else for stating their opinion. If I’ve been belligerent, it’s only been toward individuals who have initiated that type of interaction with me.

 

[Phil Kessels Hot Dog]

5 points in 3 games since the break. HE'S SLOWING DOWN, EAT CROW!

 

[GhostfaceWu]

Because I was lurking and read the thread? Nice try with the gotcha though


Yes obviously he is better than those guys by a good margin. I’m just saying he’s slowed down and will revert back to the mean. Is that really that controversial?

Oh the objectivity from a poster who is so devoid of self respect they made their username oilers are bad.

 

[Video Nasty]

Mind boggling that for the 2nd time in 3 seasons, he’s going to hit 100 points within 53-55 games.

I’m so glad he’s having this kind of season because it completely nullifies the horrible argument that 2020-2021 was a fluke. I didn’t want to listen to that weak talking point for years on end, so it’s nice to see him have another season like it.

For interest sake, the quickest to 800 points were Gretzky in 352 games, Lemieux in 410, Bossy in 525, Stastny in 531, and Kurri in 558.

McDavid is at 539 games played with just 6 points to go, assuring him of 5th quickest with a nice cushion.

To reach 900 points 4th quickest, he’ll need 106 points over his next 59 games (1.797 PPG).

To reach 1000 points quicker than anyone other than Gretzky and Lemieux, he’ll need 206 points over his next 116 games (1.776 PPG).

Both of these seem really hard to do, despite his current onslaught. IF he were to achieve this, his career PPG would stand at 1.527 PPG, through 655 games, and temporarily the 3rd highest career PPG.

If he somehow can maintain his current level of play and health, we’ll be seeing him score his 1000th point in the opening month of the 2024-2025 season, while he is still just 28 years old and having missed 37 games in his rookie season and 37 more games related to COVID scheduling.

Still some time to go and one injury detonates it all, but it could be here before we know it.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Here's the probability of McDavid reaching 150 points, updated after each game this season:

At no point was McDavid expected to reach 150 points. Even when he was on pace for 150 points, my model assumed he was likely to regress towards his "sustainable" level of performance. Even after game #37 (when he had scored 72 points - on pace for 160 points), the model still only gave him a 35% chance of reaching 150.

As of today, assuming McDavid plays all 82 games, he's virtually certain to reach 120 points, has a 99% chance of 130 points (which would be the highest total since Lemieux and Jagr in 1996), a 75% chance of 140 points, a 23% chance of 150 points, and a 2% chance of 160 points.

 

[Mr Buckles]

...my model assumed he was likely to regress towards his "sustainable" level of performance.

She sounds like a keeper!