McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[Big Bruce]

I think while 150 is certainly possible for him, it's not likely. Though if Edmonton hovers around the wild card spots, he may have no choice but to go wild and carry that team in.

That makes no sense u have clearly never played hockey you don't just choose oh okay I'm gonna get more points you always put in the work and if u get points you get points

 

[Tobias Kahun]

That makes no sense u have clearly never played hockey you don't just choose oh okay I'm gonna get more points you always put in the work and if u get points you get points

If they’re still fighting for a playoff spot, he’ll play more, increases his chance of more points.

 

[AlainVigneaultsGum]

Guy is the most dominant player in decades but it seems like he's rarely talked about compared to the Robertsons, Eichels, and Kucherovs of the world.

 

[FlameChampion]

Guy is the most dominant player in decades but it seems like he's rarely talked about compared to the Robertsons, Eichels, and Kucherovs of the world.

The media doesnt love Edmonton, so probably never. With the huge Athletic influx over the past few years, I dont think thats helped. They are pretty anti-Edmonton as well.

Even the Canadian media (TSN, Sportsnet, CBC) dont care for the Oiler all that much.

Then you have the actual NHL. Marketing wise, not great Gary.

 

[Realgud]

lol what

 

[nowhereman]

The guy has 5 pages of his own on the first page. What are you talking about?

 

[The Cheez]

The guy has 5 pages of his own on the first page. What are you talking about?

I don't think he means here on HF, probably more so the media. I mean I hope he's not talking about HF lol

 

[DisgruntledHawkFan]

He's so good there's no argument against him like Crosby had. Like, what? He's amazing.

 

[La Bamba]

After 50 games last year

28 goals 45 assists 73 points
Tied with Draisailt, 1 back of Huberdeau

This year
41 goals 51 assists 92 points
16 ahead of Draisailt, 20 ahead of Kucherov

59 ahead of Huberdeau

59 would be the Leafs' leading scorer

The scoring difference between McDavid and Huberdeau is a star in the league

 

[DJB]

Pretty sure he is a bust what are you talking about?

 

[JianYang]

With a period to go in game #50, McDavid needs 38 points in his final 32 games (1.19 PPG) to hit 130.

48 points (1.5 PPG) to hit 140.

58 points (1.81 PPG) to hit 150.

For a player who has scored at a 1.61 PPG clip over his last 369 games (lol, remember people contorting and moaning in ecstasy over Crosby’s splintered 99 games at the same pace) and is averaging 1.84 PPG through 50 games this season, 130 is a given, 140 is likely, and 150 is more probable the deeper we get into the season.

Where’s my man who thinks he’s cooling off to 120-125?

Nothing is a given. Correct me if I'm wrong, but has mcdavid missed any games yet?

We prorate assuming a player will play 82 games, but how common is that?

One awkward spill into the boards while in full flight is all it takes.

 

[Video Nasty]

Nothing is a given. Correct me if I'm wrong, but has mcdavid missed any games yet?

We prorate assuming a player will play 82 games, but how common is that?

One awkward spill into the boards while in full flight is all it takes.

It’s a given when I’m discussing a season in progress. I’m not going to write “assuming continued good health” in every post. If other players can be given credit and swooned over for missing 50-75% of seasons, I’m going to give some credit to an active season in progress that is now 60% complete.

 

[JianYang]

It’s a given when I’m discussing a season in progress. I’m not going to write “assuming continued good health” in every post. If other players can be given credit and swooned over for missing 50-75% of seasons, I’m going to give some credit to an active season in progress that is now 60% complete.

I'm not sure what you mean by other players being given credit for missing games, because we see all the time where players X is on pace for y goals/points, and then the conversation inevitably dies because the player either gets hurt or goes on a slump. They hysteria was all for not.

McDavid is too good to go in a prolonged slump, but the way he plays the game and the inherent difficulty of making it through an 82 game nhl season will make things dicey to reach that lofty benchmark.

This isn't an issue of credit or discredit.... It's just trying to be realisitc.

 

[Video Nasty]

I'm not sure what you mean by other players being given credit for missing games, because we see all the time where players X is on pace for y goals/points, and then the conversation inevitably dies because the player either gets hurt or goes on a slump. They hysteria was all for not.

McDavid is too good to go in a prolonged slump, but the way he plays the game and the inherent difficulty of making it through an 82 game nhl season will make things dicey to reach that lofty benchmark.

This isn't an issue of credit or discredit.... It's just trying to be realisitc.

He’s scored at a 1.61 PPG clip over the past 369 games, while missing just 13 games during that time span, which is over 5 years in real time (since January 1, 2018). No one, other than perhaps Jagr, has maintained such a high scoring rate for so long, since Gretzky and Lemieux.

I’m not too concerned that if he plays 80-82 games this season, while already having 92 points after 50 games, that he’s scoring under 130 or even under 140.

Feel free to quote me to your hearts content if he plays at least 77 games and finishes under 130.

I’m firmly in the camp that he hits 150. If he doesn’t and finishes with 145, is anyone not going to be super impressed?

 

[JianYang]

He’s scored at a 1.61 PPG clip over the past 369 games, while missing just 13 games during that time span, which is over 5 years in real time (since January 1, 2018). No one, other than perhaps Jagr, has maintained such a high scoring rate for so long, since Gretzky and Lemieux.

I’m not too concerned that if he plays 80-82 games this season, while already having 92 points after 50 games, that he’s scoring under 130 or even under 140.

Feel free to quote me to your hearts content if he plays at least 77 games and finishes under 130.

I’m firmly in the camp that he hits 150. If he doesn’t and finishes with 145, is anyone not going to be super impressed?

He doesn't need hit anywhere near the 145 mark to be impressive. With these types of numbers, we will have crossed that bridge well before.

 

[authentic]

He should've had like 6 points last night and he has a lot more games against opponents like that. Team is also fully healthy so yeah he probably gets it at this point

 

[Video Nasty]

He doesn't need hit anywhere near the 145 mark to be impressive. With these types of numbers, we will have crossed that bridge well before.

Sure, anyone who’s into hockey and not just local tribalism has been super impressed for years. The guy is a few months away from a 5th Art Ross, 3rd Hart, and 4th Lindsay, which means joining an increasingly smaller list of players who have done this.

Him nailing 140-150 points in reality is an important counterpoint to those who downplay his 105 points in 56 games during the 2020-2021 season and think it was a fluke due to COVID scheduling.

140-150 completely validates that season and removes the question mark of “could he have done it during a normal full season?”

And the complete reverse of the nonsense we hear with more recent examples of players we play the what if game for based on a partial season because he’s backing it up with proof.

He should've had like 6 points last night and he has a lot more games against opponents like that. Team is also fully healthy so yeah he probably gets it at this point

You’re right. I feel like this is the case for almost all his games this year in particular. The game I went to on the 13th against the Sharks, he had 2 goals and an assist and he easily could have walked out with 3-4 goals and 5-6 points. I’d like to think that some of these are going to be cashed in and he’ll put up some needed 6 point nights during the final months of the season.

 

[Homesick]

After 50 games last year

28 goals 45 assists 73 points
Tied with Draisailt, 1 back of Huberdeau

This year
41 goals 51 assists 92 points
16 ahead of Draisailt, 20 ahead of Kucherov

The Oilers schedule looks favourable for McDavid to really rack up some points vs teams that give up a lot of goals. DET(x2), PHI(x2), OTT(x2), MTL, BUF, CBJ, SJ(x3), ARI(x2), ANA(x2) LA(x2) . Of course none of these are guaranteed points and they have a few games vs the stingier teams as well (NYR, BOS, COL, TOR, DAL)

 

[BurnabyJoe7]

Lol, cut the shit. He was on pace for 150+ last year and finished with 123, so what happened there? Looks like something “unreasonable” happened. It will happen again this year too. He won’t hit 150.

Btw, I’m an Oilers fan; I would love to see him do it. I’m just not a delusional fanboy.

This is either a troll or you just can't do basic math. McDavid held that pace for maybe the first 20 games last season. He just played his 50th game this year and is still holding the 150 point pace. I hope for your sake you can decipher the difference between those two events and why they are quite different.

 

[Video Nasty]

The Oilers schedule looks favourable for McDavid to really rack up some points vs teams that give up a lot of goals. DET(x2), PHI(x2), OTT(x2), MTL, BUF, CBJ, SJ(x3), ARI(x2), ANA(x2) LA(x2) . Of course none of these are guaranteed points and they have a few games vs the stingier teams as well (NYR, BOS, COL, TOR, DAL)

Also worth noting that he has at least a point in 45 out of 50 games so far.

4 of those pointless games came within the first 20 games of the season. 1x each against the Blues and Penguins within the first 6 games. 1x each against the Kings and Islanders. And finally 1x against the Jets.

A point in 29 of his last 30 games. Looks pretty good overall.

 

[Homesick]

This is either a troll or you just can't do basic math. McDavid held that pace for maybe the first 20 games last season. He just played his 50th game this year and is still holding the 150 point pace. I hope for your sake you can decipher the difference between those two events and why they are quite different.

That poster is a Habs fan boy. The only time he has anything positive to say about McDavid is in Matthews threads

Also worth noting that he has at least a point in 45 out of 50 games so far.

4 of those pointless games came within the first 20 games of the season. 1x each against the Blues and Penguins within the first 6 games. 1x each against the Kings and Islanders. And finally 1x against the Jets.

A point in 29 of his last 30 games. Looks pretty good overall.

McDavid is at 1.84 PPG so far this year. Its hard to believe he will find yet another gear but I've just decided to enjoy the show
2021-22 season - October to January 1.45 PPG, February to April 1.6 PPG.
2020-21 season - January to March 1.34 PPG, April to May 2.210 PPG.* covid

He certainly does not slow down over the season(never mind the nuclear level he went in the playoffs last year)

 

[Garbageyuk]

That poster is a Habs fan boy. The only time he has anything positive to say about McDavid is in Matthews threads

McDavid is at 1.84 PPG so far this year. Its hard to believe he will find yet another gear but I've just decided to enjoy the show
2021-22 season - October to January 1.45 PPG, February to April 1.6 PPG.
2020-21 season - January to March 1.34 PPG, April to May 2.210 PPG.* covid

He certainly does not slow down over the season(never mind the nuclear level he went in the playoffs last year)

Lol ok. Because I don’t think he’ll make 150 I can’t be a fan. I am a Habs fan. I’m also an Oilers fan, go to Oilers games regularly, and own McDavid’s jersey. He’s my favourite player and I hope he does it - I just don’t think he will.

I’ll quote you specifically in this thread at the end of the season when he falls short and you can eat crow. Too much has to go right and he’s barely keeping pace right now. He probably sits a few games for rest in April and that’s all it will take. See you then.

 

[Macheteops]

That makes no sense u have clearly never played hockey you don't just choose oh okay I'm gonna get more points you always put in the work and if u get points you get points

Maybe in the sense they're forced to play McDavid huge minutes down the stretch whereas if they re in a good position they can ease up maybe even let him sit a few games

 

[Hockey Outsider]

It's been two weeks since I posted an update. Since then, McDavid has scored 10 points in seven games (which is well below his seasonal pace).

After tonight's game, my model gives him virtually a 100% probability of reaching 120 points, 97% for 130 (which would be the highest total since 1996), 73% for 140, 26% for 150, and 3% for 160.

In terms of goals - he has a 98% probability of reaching 50, and he's now up to a 45% chance of reaching 60. (Only a 2% of reaching 70 though).

I'll post this important disclaimer each time - this is on the assumption that McDavid plays all 82 games. The probability of reaching any big milestones drops off rapidly if he misses more than a handful of games.

It's been another two weeks. As of the all-star break, my model gives him virtually a 100% probability of reaching 120 points, 98% for 130 (which would be the highest total since 1996), 74% for 140, 24% for 150, and 2% for 160. The percentages have barely moved.

For goals - he has a 99% probability of reaching 50, and a 48% chance of reaching 60. (He's steady at a 2% of reaching 70).

I'll post this important disclaimer each time - this is on the assumption that McDavid plays all 82 games. The probability of reaching any big milestones drops off rapidly if he misses more than a handful of games.

 

[Dingo]

It's been another two weeks. As of the all-star break, my model gives him virtually a 100% probability of reaching 120 points, 98% for 130 (which would be the highest total since 1996), 74% for 140, 24% for 150, and 2% for 160. The percentages have barely moved.

For goals - he has a 99% probability of reaching 50, and a 48% chance of reaching 60. (He's steady at a 2% of reaching 70).

I'll post this important disclaimer each time - this is on the assumption that McDavid plays all 82 games. The probability of reaching any big milestones drops off rapidly if he misses more than a handful of games.

Yer a dadgummed beauty