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McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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Garbageyuk said:
No matter how you break it down, it isn’t a bad take. Not when he’s never hit 150, or even 130 before, nobody has in nearly 30 years, and there are numerous factors working against him. An injury is all it would take, or a slump, or the coach deciding to save him for the playoffs, etc, etc. There’s too many variables and things going on to say he’s a lock for anything. That was my point.

As usual, HF can never seem to separate what they want to happen from what is likely to happen. For most on here there’s no difference. Everything has to be black and white, and pace and expectations are the same as results - until they aren’t.

Good old HF ❤️
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I actually don’t know why the pushback in this. I love mcD and pulling hard for him to do it but to act as if 150 is something he will just walk to us actually to belittle what hes doing. Like my man says he still needs all the variables to fall his way. I predict 140 with 58 goals and that’s a legendary season
 
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CN8 said:
I predict 140 with 58 goals and that’s a legendary season
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No way McDavid ends up with anything less than 61 goals this season. He took what Matthews did to him last season personally and he's sacraficing his assist numbers in order to score more goals than Matthews did last season.
 
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Because we all love "on pace for"

Maintaining current pace, he finishes with:

.8333 G/GM - 68.3 Goal pace
1.8333 Pts/GM - 150 point pace

If he finishes the remaining 34 games at:

90% of his current pace:
65G/144 pts

80% of his current pace:
62G/138 pts

70% of his current pace
60G/131 pts


I still think he gets 70/150+
 
Mulletman said:
No way McDavid ends up with anything less than 61 goals this season. He took what Matthews did to him last season personally and he's sacraficing his assist numbers in order to score more goals than Matthews did last season.
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I hope so
I didn’t realize his pace was this good till I saw yesterday he got to 40 quicker than matthews last year
 
Mulletman said:
No way McDavid ends up with anything less than 61 goals this season. He took what Matthews did to him last season personally and he's sacraficing his assist numbers in order to score more goals than Matthews did last season.
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Yep. He's not dropping from a .833 goals per game pace to a .530 goals per game pace in order to hit 58 goals.

Only way he doesn't hit 60+ this season is if he gets injured.
 
Mulletman said:
No way McDavid ends up with anything less than 61 goals this season. He took what Matthews did to him last season personally and he's sacraficing his assist numbers in order to score more goals than Matthews did last season.
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Nice to see Mcdavid focused on what’s important
 
I don't think he hits 150, but I think he hits over 140. Around 60 goals 85 assists.

Thornton is only player since 1996 to hit 90 assists. Would be really neat to see. He's on pace for 82, so it's unlikely, but could happen if Kane's wristshot comes back.
 
CN8 said:
I hope so
I didn’t realize his pace was this good till I saw yesterday he got to 40 quicker than matthews last year
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Matthews had 40 in 49 the year before last. He missed the first 6 games then ended up going on a 51 goal in 50 game tear after starting slow coming back from injury.

jigglysquishy said:
I don't think he hits 150, but I think he hits over 140. Around 60 goals 85 assists.

Thornton is only player since 1996 to hit 90 assists. Would be really neat to see. He's on pace for 82, so it's unlikely, but could happen if Kane's wristshot comes back.
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I really want to see 60 goals and 90 assists for 150 points. That would be the ultimate season in todays NHL.
 
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authentic said:
I really want to see 60 goals and 90 assists for 150 points. That would be the ultimate season in todays NHL.
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That seems very plausible as of now (although the pace is slightly more goal-heavy). What would be the most satisfying (yet somewhat within reach) for the McDavid fans out there would be 66 goals and 97 assists — that'd be one more goal and one more assist than any NHLer who hasn't yet announced retirement has amassed in one regular season. At 163 points it'd also be the only 160+ point season outside of Gretzky and Lemieux.

In raw numbers that's McDavid improving his personal bests by 22 goals and 18 assists, soo... kind of a tall order.

Having said that, the goals part isn't crazy at all.
 
Calderon said:
That seems very plausible as of now (although the pace is slightly more goal-heavy). What would be the most satisfying (yet somewhat within reach) for the McDavid fans out there would be 66 goals and 97 assists — that'd be one more goal and one more assist than any NHLer who hasn't yet announced retirement has amassed in one regular season. At 163 points it'd also be the only 160+ point season outside of Gretzky and Lemieux.

In raw numbers that's McDavid improving his personal bests by 22 goals and 18 assists, soo... kind of a tall order.

Having said that, the goals part isn't crazy at all.
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Yeah I think his goal scoring will trail off as the season goes but his assist total maybe not so much. We'll see though I hope he goes full throttle for both.
 
CN8 said:
I actually don’t know why the pushback in this. I love mcD and pulling hard for him to do it but to act as if 150 is something he will just walk to us actually to belittle what hes doing. Like my man says he still needs all the variables to fall his way. I predict 140 with 58 goals and that’s a legendary season
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You have to go back to that poster's first claim, which is that McDavid will likely end up with 120-130, and then used very poor reasoning to back it up. He certainly could end up in that range, but it would take a large statistical anomaly in the context of McDavid's career when given his current pace, the season sample size, and his well established history of strong performances in the back half of a season.

There's no basis for stating that 120-130 is a likelihood. It's a possibility, but a low probability.
 
Calderon said:
That seems very plausible as of now (although the pace is slightly more goal-heavy). What would be the most satisfying (yet somewhat within reach) for the McDavid fans out there would be 66 goals and 97 assists — that'd be one more goal and one more assist than any NHLer who hasn't yet announced retirement has amassed in one regular season. At 163 points it'd also be the only 160+ point season outside of Gretzky and Lemieux.

In raw numbers that's McDavid improving his personal bests by 22 goals and 18 assists, soo... kind of a tall order.

Having said that, the goals part isn't crazy at all.
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It would be a big jump in personal bests, but he did have a higher P/GP in 20-21, so he does have history of producing at this level over a season - albeit a shortened one.
 
Based on his career scoring rates against each of the remaining opponents, in the next 34 games McDavid will score 51.6 points. In other words, 140 points is roughly what you should expect if this is an average stretch for his career and he plays all 82
 
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Hynh said:
Based on his career scoring rates against each of the remaining opponents, in the next 34 games McDavid will score 51.6 points. In other words, 140 points is roughly what you should expect if this is an average stretch for his career and he plays all 82
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That's career scoring rates though, some of those teams are a lot worse now and scoring is higher this season than ever. That said I still agree with your conclusion as I think they'll have playoffs easily rapped up by then and he'll coast a bit near the end.

Zur En Arrh said:
So 60 goals last year is like 90..:nice!!!!
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90 in 73 games no less!
 
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