McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

[innitfam]

We’ll see what happens. I’ll believe it when I see it. Injuries, bumps & bruises, fatigue, etc. could all slow him down enough to prevent it from happening.

I’ll bet on precedence and the other factors over his pace every time, until shown otherwise.

Look at Edmonton's remaining schedule though. Lots of games against shite teams to pile up points.

 

[Juxta Position]

Who’s criticizing? He’s my favourite player and I’m an Oilers fan ffs. All this outrage because I don’t think he’ll reach 150, and think it’s likely he finishes where he usually does.


I didn’t say it was at the halfway mark.

you're right you didn't say the halfway mark, you just picked an arbitray number very early in the season to be the basis of your standard, so by that reasoning, after 4 games he was on pace for 206 points...why didn't he keep that up?

 

[Garbageyuk]

Look at Edmonton's remaining schedule though. Lots of games against shite teams to pile up points.

Maybe because of that, the coach decides to rest McDavid more, doesn’t put him out in certain situations, or tells him to take it easy sometimes to ensure that he’s as close to 100% for the playoffs as possible - and as a result, his production slows down. There are a lot of things that could happen.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Lol, cut the shit. He was on pace for 150+ last year and finished with 123, so what happened there? Looks like something “unreasonable” happened. It will happen again this year too. He won’t hit 150.

Btw, I’m an Oilers fan; I would love to see him do it. I’m just not a delusional fanboy.

He was on pace for 120 points by the end of January last year.

 

[Garbageyuk]

you're right you didn't say the halfway mark, you just picked an arbitray number very early in the season to be the basis of your standard, so by that reasoning, after 4 games he was on pace for 206 points...why didn't he keep that up?

Were there threads made about whether he’d hit 200+ points?

 

[QJL]

We’ll see what happens. I’ll believe it when I see it. Injuries, bumps & bruises, fatigue, etc. could all slow him down enough to prevent it from happening.

I’ll bet on precedence and the other factors over his pace every time, until shown otherwise.

There is literally no precedence of McDavid scoring less than 44 points in 35 games during any stretch in any recent season. You are betting on a false precedent. You are betting on him to produce like he did when he was 20 years old in a lower scoring league. He’s been crushing that pace all year every year for quite some time. The only thing that can stop him is injury.

 

[KCC]

Why didn’t he do it last year then? He was healthy and finished with 123.

Because traditionally McDavid has usually had a slower first half (by his standards anyways) and ramps it up in the second half. not This year however.

 

[iCanada]

His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.

Mcdavid always increases his ppg in the last 2-3 months of the season. Every time.

His December and January are his worst career months by like 30%.

 

[snag]

Here are last years and this years paces...click to enlarge and see values (ymmv depending on your eyes and screen )

 

[BallardEra]

McDavid has averaged 1.61 PPG over his last 366 regular season games played. Slipping back to that well established pace built over a long period of time, which is since 1/1/18 and equates to 4.5 full 82 game seasons, would see him finish with 142 points on the year.

Anticipating somewhere between 120 and 130 assuming he plays 80-82 games is the definition of being an unreasonable hater at this point.

McDavid has truly entered the next stratosphere above other players if 6 goals and 10 points over his past 6 games makes you hop on to post about his pace creeping down. He has at least a point in 26 of the 27 games played since his prior pointless game, of which he has a grand total of 3 on the season.

It’s reasonable for someone to anticipate him falling short of 150.

120 at this point though is a joke. Yeah, 34 points in his final 35 games or 44 in his final 35 for 130 after 86 in his prior 47 (and 589 in his prior 366 games) is going to happen. Come on now.

Yep.

140-150 this season.

 

[McShogun99]

If he plays every game then he needs to go 1.8 PPG to hit 150. Right now he's at a 1.8 PPG and the Oilers had a pretty hard schedule up to this point. Over half of the next 35 games are against teams competing for Bedard. I could see him going at a 2 PPG pace for the rest of the season.

 

[Kerberos]

Even in the last 6 games with 6 goals and 10 points, I'd argue that it's been a "down stretch" for McDavid. Hell, against Seattle he could've had 3 or 4 more points if not for Drai, Hyman and Kane missing tap-ins.

Consider the fact that the Oilers need to play high level hockey for the rest of the season to win their division, and that the schedule becomes a lot easier... honestly hard to see at this point why McDavid doesn't increase his pace for a stretch of games.

All he needs is a couple 4 or 5 point games to give himself a buffer for 150.

 

[gotcha90]

Maybe because of that, the coach decides to rest McDavid more, doesn’t put him out in certain situations, or tells him to take it easy sometimes to ensure that he’s as close to 100% for the playoffs as possible - and as a result, his production slows down. There are a lot of things that could happen.

Valid points. I don't know why everyone is dogpiling on you for being unrealistically low. You literally stated that you expect McDavid to finish with 120 to 130, which could be the highest point total posted in the last 26 years.

Personally I think he hits 130 dead on. I'm expecting him to miss ~ 4 games for sickness or conditioning, and ice-time to drop in the last few games when he's locked up the Art Ross and a playoff spot. With missed games he would still need 44 points in 31 games to do that which is not lock by any means.

 

[North Cole]

He was still on pace for 150+ part way through the season last year early on. He cooled off and didn’t reach 150, needless to say.

The problem is that at 25 games there is still more of the sample left to be discovered. At 47 games, more than half the sample is already in the books. The longer he sustains 150 point pace, the harder it is to miss because he's banked too much already. There's a massive difference between dropping from 25 games of 1.8PPG to 57 games of 1.4PPG, than dropping from 47 games of 1.8PPG to 35 games of 1.2PPG.

Even if some tragedy happens and he goes like 20 points in 20 games, he will be at 106 points in 67. All he would need is 26 in 15 to get over 130, which is less still PPG than he had in the playoffs last year...Really, if McDavid gets to 100 points anywhere near game 55, it's basically astronomical for him to miss 130. 30 points in 27 games is a joke for this guy. The most unimpressive portions of his career are like 5 points in 5 games.

 

[Ruok]

Oilers have a nice soft schedule up for the next few games. Good opportunity to stack up some points.

 

[Peiskos]

He's the greatest player of our time, man makes getting 120+ points look easy and routine.

 

[Video Nasty]

Worth repeating because it hasn’t sunk in for some:

McDavid has 589 points over his last 366 regular season games which is 1.609 PPG or 132 points/82 games. 1.61 PPG over 5 years real time or nearly 4.5 full 82 game seasons…this has been done consecutively while playing all but 13 games on the schedule.

As of right now, down to the game, the first half of the 2017-2018 season, all of 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 begin this run with 275 points in 183 games, which is a 1.503 PPG or 123 points/82 games.

Over the last 183 games which comprises the 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 47 games thus far into the 2022-2023 season, he has 314 points, a 1.716 PPG, or 141 points/82 games.

It’s laughable to think he plays at least 80 games this year and think his floor is 120 and his max is 130.

140 is the floor and 150 is achievable. This is more realistic than thinking that he’s scoring 130 or below without some injury that causes him to play 72 games or less, and I’m being kind here because no one is saying this.

 

[Garbageyuk]

The problem is that at 25 games there is still more of the sample left to be discovered. At 47 games, more than half the sample is already in the books. The longer he sustains 150 point pace, the harder it is to miss because he's banked too much already. There's a massive difference between dropping from 25 games of 1.8PPG to 57 games of 1.4PPG, than dropping from 47 games of 1.8PPG to 35 games of 1.2PPG.

Even if some tragedy happens and he goes like 20 points in 20 games, he will be at 106 points in 67. All he would need is 26 in 15 to get over 130, which is less still PPG than he had in the playoffs last year...Really, if McDavid gets to 100 points anywhere near game 55, it's basically astronomical for him to miss 130. 30 points in 27 games is a joke for this guy. The most unimpressive portions of his career are like 5 points in 5 games.

I understand the logic, but I just have a hard time betting on it when it hasn’t happened since 1996 and so much can go awry. There are just too many variables and things that can happen. And that’s for 130. 150 I think is unlikely for the very same reasons, just more so, despite the fact that he’s exactly on pace for it at the moment.

 

[gotcha90]

Worth repeating because it hasn’t sunk in for some:

McDavid has 589 points over his last 366 regular season games which is 1.609 PPG or 132 points/82 games. 1.61 PPG over 5 years real time or nearly 4.5 full 82 game seasons…this has been done consecutively while playing all but 13 games on the schedule.

As of right now, down to the game, the first half of the 2017-2018 season, all of 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 begin this run with 275 points in 183 games, which is a 1.503 PPG or 123 points/82 games.

Over the last 183 games which comprises the 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 47 games thus far into the 2022-2023 season, he has 314 points, a 1.716 PPG, or 141 points/82 games.

It’s laughable to think he plays at least 80 games this year and think his floor is 120 and his max is 130.

140 is the floor and 150 is achievable. This is more realistic than thinking that he’s scoring 130 or below without some injury that causes him to play 72 games or less, and I’m being kind here because no one is saying this.

It's worth noting that he has only played 80 games once in the last 4.5 years, so to base projections on that many games is optimistic. I understand that most of the reason he has not played that many games is not his fault, but I'm not saying that McDavid can't hit 140 points, I'm saying I don't think he will hit 140 points. These are different things and include factors that are outside of McDavid's control. If you tell me to assume he will play 80 games, obviously I increase my projections, but what's the point in that? Why not just tell me to assume he hits 150 points and then we don't have to have a discussion.

 

[Regal]

I wonder what this Edmonton squad does with about 450 PP's a season like Crosby started with. How many do teams get now? low 200's?

Well their percentage would likely go down with bigger goalie equipment, as PP efficiency has gone up considerably in recent years, but obviously they’d score a lot. The Pens scored a lot in Crosby’s sophomore year too, which led to 61 PP points for him. But as stated he was 19, so hard to expect him to put up the same numbers.

 

[Garbageyuk]

Worth repeating because it hasn’t sunk in for some:

McDavid has 589 points over his last 366 regular season games which is 1.609 PPG or 132 points/82 games. 1.61 PPG over 5 years real time or nearly 4.5 full 82 game seasons…this has been done consecutively while playing all but 13 games on the schedule.

As of right now, down to the game, the first half of the 2017-2018 season, all of 2018-2019, and 2019-2020 begin this run with 275 points in 183 games, which is a 1.503 PPG or 123 points/82 games.

Over the last 183 games which comprises the 2020-2021, 2021-2022, and 47 games thus far into the 2022-2023 season, he has 314 points, a 1.716 PPG, or 141 points/82 games.

It’s laughable to think he plays at least 80 games this year and think his floor is 120 and his max is 130.

140 is the floor and 150 is achievable. This is more realistic than thinking that he’s scoring 130 or below without some injury that causes him to play 72 games or less, and I’m being kind here because no one is saying this.

All that and he finished with 123 last year despite being healthy and playing in 80 games. How has that not sunk in for you?

It’s possible that he does and it’s possible he doesn’t. Anything can happen. A lot has gone right for him this season - that would obviously have to continue. Things can go wrong at any time. Saying anything is a lock is foolish, especially when you’re talking about production totals that haven’t been seen in nearly 30 years.

 

[Regal]

All that and he finished with 123 last year despite being healthy and playing in 80 games. How has that not sunk in for you?

It’s possible that he does and it’s possible he doesn’t. Anything can happen. A lot has gone right for him this season - that would obviously have to continue. Things can go wrong at any time. Saying anything is a lock is foolish, especially when you’re talking about production totals that haven’t been seen in nearly 30 years.

Interestingly, a lot has gone wrong for him as well. His 5v5 and ES on-ice shooting percentages are lower than normal, so the team isn’t finishing with him on the ice like they usual do outside of the PP. He’s also not getting as many secondary assists as usual, which likely speaks to the lack of finish with him on the ice as well. His PP numbers will likely go down, but his ES numbers will likely go up as the season goes on. That likely won’t let him quite keep pace, but it should lessen the blow.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

All that and he finished with 123 last year despite being healthy and playing in 80 games. How has that not sunk in for you?

It’s possible that he does and it’s possible he doesn’t. Anything can happen. A lot has gone right for him this season - that would obviously have to continue. Things can go wrong at any time. Saying anything is a lock is foolish, especially when you’re talking about production totals that haven’t been seen in nearly 30 years.

The part that clearly hasnt sunk in for you is thinking that since he didnt keep up a 150 point pace last year, even though hes almost 20 points ahead of where he was last year.

hOw DiD hE oNlY hIt 123!11!1!1!!

 

[snag]

Oilers have a nice soft schedule up for the next few games. Good opportunity to stack up some points.

They have the 2nd softest schedule after the Flames to finish the season.

Most of the hard shit is already behind them.

The part that clearly hasnt sunk in for you is thinking that since he didnt keep up a 150 point pace last year, even though hes almost 20 points ahead of where he was last year.

hOw DiD hE oNlY hIt 123!11!1!1!!

He is actually 31 point ahead of game 47 last year (see my graph above)

 

[Garbageyuk]

Interestingly, a lot has gone wrong for him as well. His 5v5 and ES on-ice shooting percentages are lower than normal, so the team isn’t finishing with him on the ice like they usual do outside of the PP. He’s also not getting as many secondary assists as usual, which likely speaks to the lack of finish with him on the ice as well. His PP numbers will likely go down, but his ES numbers will likely go up as the season goes on. That likely won’t let him quite keep pace, but it should lessen the blow.

His ES shooting percentage is down because he’s taking more shots, as he’s now the primary goal scoring option on the team. That’s also why he’s not getting as many secondary assists - he’s the one finishing most plays now, and setting them up less.

I’d say that’s part of what’s going right.