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McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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BenchBrawl said:
If we take away Crosby's hot streak, shall we take away McDavid's hot streaks too?

Besides, if you play fewer games, you may get on a hot streak, but you may also get on a cold streak, each of which will count disproportionately. 179 games is still a decent sample size.

And on top of all this, it is notorious and pretty clear from the eye test that 2011 Crosby was the best form we ever seen him play. It was his absolute peak. It's very possible he would have kept up a great pace, higher than his other seasons.

In 2011, Crosby played 41 games. In 2021, McDavid played 56 games, in a weird Canadian division to boot. Each case have their questions marks, but it remains that even if you drop Crosby's PPG to 1.38, he is still far and away ahead of everyone else in that stretch.
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That would significantly reduce sample sizes....and prove what? Who is better when shitty?
 
BenchBrawl said:
If we take away Crosby's hot streak, shall we take away McDavid's hot streaks too?

Besides, if you play fewer games, you may get on a hot streak, but you may also get on a cold streak, each of which will count disproportionately. 179 games is still a decent sample size.

And on top of all this, it is notorious and pretty clear from the eye test that 2011 Crosby was the best form we ever seen him play. It was his absolute peak. It's very possible he would have kept up a great pace, higher than his other seasons.

In 2011, Crosby played 41 games. In 2021, McDavid played 56 games, in a weird Canadian division to boot. Each case have their questions marks, but it remains that even if you drop Crosby's PPG to 1.38, he is still far and away ahead of everyone else in that stretch.
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That was just to illustrate how much a difference 25 games can make in 180 game sample size.

Crosby has gone on plenty of long stretches where he's looked downright dominant, He always has a decent stretch where he plays much better than the rest of the season, however, he's never done it for a full season. Why Does he get the benefit of the doubt that season, where all full seasons show otherwise.

In one year, all players are expecting to play 82 games one player goes hot, scores 50 in 25 straight games, 16 points in the other 16, he's going to look way better compared to everyone who played 82. In the other season all players are prepared for a 56 game season, "in a weird Canadian division". I would expect other elite scoers to be affected by it as well and have career years, no?

Marchand '19+'20 1.25ppg -> 1.3ppg -> '22 1.14ppg - Though he is getting old
Draisaitl. '20, 1.57ppg -> '21, 1.5ppg > '22 1.38ppg
Marner '20, 1.14ppg -> '21 1.22ppg -> '22 1.35ppg
Matthews '20 1.14ppg -> '21 1.27 ppg -> '22 1.45ppg
Scheifele '20' 1.03 ppg -> '21 1.12ppg -> '22 1.04ppg
Gaudreau '20 .83ppg -> '21 .87 ppg -> '22 1.4ppg

You can look at Mack, Rantanen, Kane, etc. None of them had career years in the Covid season. plenty of players did the following year though.
 
cupface52 said:
That was just to illustrate how much a difference 25 games can make in 180 game sample size.

Crosby has gone on plenty of long stretches where he's looked downright dominant, He always has a decent stretch where he plays much better than the rest of the season, however, he's never done it for a full season. Why Does he get the benefit of the doubt that season, where all full seasons show otherwise.

In one year, all players are expecting to play 82 games one player goes hot, scores 50 in 25 straight games, 16 points in the other 16, he's going to look way better compared to everyone who played 82. In the other season all players are prepared for a 56 game season, "in a weird Canadian division". I would expect other elite scoers to be affected by it as well and have career years, no?

Marchand '19+'20 1.25ppg -> 1.3ppg -> '22 1.14ppg - Though he is getting old
Draisaitl. '20, 1.57ppg -> '21, 1.5ppg > '22 1.38ppg
Marner '20, 1.14ppg -> '21 1.22ppg -> '22 1.35ppg
Matthews '20 1.14ppg -> '21 1.27 ppg -> '22 1.45ppg
Scheifele '20' 1.03 ppg -> '21 1.12ppg -> '22 1.04ppg
Gaudreau '20 .83ppg -> '21 .87 ppg -> '22 1.4ppg

You can look at Mack, Rantanen, Kane, etc. None of them had career years in the Covid season. plenty of players did the following year though.
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He's not getting any benefit of the doubt actually. I simply took the PPG from the 179 games he played from 11' to 14', that's it. It is you who is trying to impose a trend on imaginary games he didn't play.
 
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cupface52 said:
That was just to illustrate how much a difference 25 games can make in 180 game sample size.

Crosby has gone on plenty of long stretches where he's looked downright dominant, He always has a decent stretch where he plays much better than the rest of the season, however, he's never done it for a full season. Why Does he get the benefit of the doubt that season, where all full seasons show otherwise.

In one year, all players are expecting to play 82 games one player goes hot, scores 50 in 25 straight games, 16 points in the other 16, he's going to look way better compared to everyone who played 82. In the other season all players are prepared for a 56 game season, "in a weird Canadian division". I would expect other elite scoers to be affected by it as well and have career years, no?

Marchand '19+'20 1.25ppg -> 1.3ppg -> '22 1.14ppg - Though he is getting old
Draisaitl. '20, 1.57ppg -> '21, 1.5ppg > '22 1.38ppg
Marner '20, 1.14ppg -> '21 1.22ppg -> '22 1.35ppg
Matthews '20 1.14ppg -> '21 1.27 ppg -> '22 1.45ppg
Scheifele '20' 1.03 ppg -> '21 1.12ppg -> '22 1.04ppg
Gaudreau '20 .83ppg -> '21 .87 ppg -> '22 1.4ppg

You can look at Mack, Rantanen, Kane, etc. None of them had career years in the Covid season. plenty of players did the following year though.
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And yet if you look at their entire careers up to the same point Crosby dominates in points per game the same as McDavid has so far if not more. He just so happens to have the best 25 game stretch of the millenium at the beginning of his absolute peak before he got concussed.
 
authentic said:
Here's a tip for the future, try actually arguing against things people said rather than conjuring up strawman and acting like you're the voice of reason. You don't like that Crosby has been just as dominant as McDavid on a points per game basis after the same amount of games in any regular season and in their careers up to the same point (whether McDavid continues his pace or not is almost completely irrelevant as I fully expect him to score around 140 or so and that wouldn't change a single thing I've been debating).

His 56 game season was more dominant, but we also never got to see how Crosby would perform under those cirucmstances. For the record I think there's a good chance McDavid would perform better anyway because being able to go all out with his speed for a shorter time is probably more conducive to achieving that type of dominance more so than the intradivisional schedule itself. Besides the fact that we disagree that this season makes McDavid a clear step above Crosby it's also irrelevant because I was never arguing for or against this season anyway, at the end of the day it doesn't make a lot of difference or tell us much about the ability of the two players at same stage of their careers.

McDavid

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It doesn't exactly take a genius to see that McDavid isn't in another tier of offensive ability than Crosby here. If you can't accept that that's fine but don't go on like you're the one being objective and that others are the ones who aren't enjoying the greatness that's taking place. I'd hate to see the look on your face if McDavid "only" scores 135 points or something. :laugh:
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PPG, isolated snapshots and a bunch of "what could have been".......

Crosby has won the Art Ross twice in 17 years.......twice he has been able to out produce his peers in a season.

McDavid has won it 4 times and it is about to be 5 times in 8 years.

It is not even close.
 
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authentic said:
And yet if you look at their entire careers up to the same point Crosby dominates in points per game the same as McDavid has so far if not more. He just so happens to have the best 25 game stretch of the millenium at the beginning of his absolute peak before he got concussed.
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Well, after this season it'll be 5 Art Ross to 1.

Since entering the league and midway through his 8th season, 105 point point lead over second, 175 point lead over fifth. Compared to third in scoring after 8 seasons, 70 points behind first, 27 ahead of fifth. Playing in the games is just as, if not more important than being good in the games you do play.

In 10 years nobody will care about ppg pace over short stretch. Maybe a few remnants just like there is for Forsberg still.

Actual Production >>> ppg
 
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His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.
 
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Garbageyuk said:
His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.
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I don’t think he will cool off to that extent. Even if he’s having an off game, he could still easily rack up a couple points on the powerplay.

Plus their remaining schedule has a lot of weaker/tanking teams
 
Garbageyuk said:
His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.
Click to expand...
McDavid has never had his production decrease in the back half of a season, as far as I know. First time for everything but when "competition ramps up" he tends to put up more points.

I will say that *if* the Oilers continue to get depth scoring and don't have to rely on McDavid as much then I could see his pace slowing down as a result.
 
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Garbageyuk said:
His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.
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Assuming he remains healthy for the rest of the season and plays in all of the remaining games, McDavid would have to maintain a pace of under a PPG for the rest of the season to end up with only 120 points. That's how ridiculous this post is.

And you're incorrect about his pace which hasn't slowed. He's still on pace for 150 points which was his pace at the start of this thread.

I think the odds are that he finishes under 150 points especially with the risk of missing some games, but 140 should be doable unless he hits a drastic slump.
 
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authentic said:
That has as much to do with scoring eras as anything else. McDavid has had more cracks at that in his prime with better health and higher scoring seasons. Again I agree with you going forward we will see McDavid continue to score very close to what he's been doing for the forseeable future as long as he doesn't sustain an injury that permanently impacts his level of play like Crosby's wrist injury in 2014.
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is it? Crosby came into the league and sv% drop to 0.901, PPO was a full 2 powerplays higher than it is now, and scoring was also booming. The last couple of years we are just starting to head back to where it was in 05-09, difference being powerplay structures are vastly superior than they used to be because we don't run 2D at the point anymore.
 
Garbageyuk said:
His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.
Click to expand...

It feels like his pace has slowed down, but in reality, he has 9 points in his last 5 games, he just hasn't had that one big game that we're used to seeing from him. If you watch him, the chances are still there. He's still setting up his linemates for taps in that they're not converting. He's consistent enough 130 is basically guaranteed. He could probably miss 5 games and still hit 130.
 
Interesting stretch of games coming up for Edmonton and Connor. This is the time to make a move and create a buffer to hit 150 and lockdown a playoff position.

t's funny he had 2 points tonight and it still feels like he is in a bit of slump lately or cooled off. Absolutely crazy how spoiled we are.

Team wise, solid win over a contender. Tampa played him pretty tight, and he still managed to create some magic.
 
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ozzie said:
Interesting stretch of games coming up for Edmonton and Connor. This is the time to make a move and create a buffer to hit 150 and lockdown a playoff position.
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Chicago, Columbus, Det x2, Philly, Ottawa, Montreal is the next 7 games for Edmonton. Pretty good chance to put up some big numbers, not a single playoff team in that bunch.
 
One thing I’ve noticed about McDavid throughout his career is that he does care about meeting certain marks and winning individual trophies. He and his teammates will push a little extra to get him or them to a scoring mark or trophy (100 points, 50 goals, scoring title, etc).

Of the last dozen games of the season, the Oilers play SJ 3 times and LA and ARI twice each. With all due respect to those teams, if McDavid is within striking distance of 150 come the last few weeks of the season then he’s going to hit it.
 
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North Cole said:
is it? Crosby came into the league and sv% drop to 0.901, PPO was a full 2 powerplays higher than it is now, and scoring was also booming. The last couple of years we are just starting to head back to where it was in 05-09, difference being powerplay structures are vastly superior than they used to be because we don't run 2D at the point anymore.
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05-06 and 06-07 were high scoring, but the others were below the last couple years, even taking into account the top players generally scoring more relative to the league those years due to the PPOs. So only teenage Crosby really got a similar level of league scoring. That’s not quite the same.
 
Garbageyuk said:
His pace is slowly creeping down. He won’t hit 150, like I said a couple months ago. I think there’s a possibility he cools off to the point where he doesn’t even reach 130.

The grind, fatigue, and bumps & bruises are just starting to set in. Competition will continue to ramp up as the playoff races get tighter. Checking will get tighter and more intense, and there’s still 3 months of the season left.

I’m betting he finishes between 120 and 130 like he always does.
Click to expand...

He needs 44 points in 35 games to reach 130 points. He has scored at a better pace than that all of his previous 5 seasons. There is zero chance he doesn’t hit 130 if he’s healthy. Slowing down might result in a number short of 140.

I’ll predict: 57+86=143
 
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