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McDavid heating up, what are odds on 150 points this season?

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McDavid hasn't gone on any hot stretches lately, just been very consistent, he's long overdue. Since December 15th he only has 27 points in 17 games(1.59ppg), however he only had two 3+ point nights during that stretch. If he keeps that up, he hits 141 points in 82 games.

Keeping my prediction from near the beginning of the season and still think he hits between 55-65g / 145-155p.


Garbageyuk said:
All that and he finished with 123 last year despite being healthy and playing in 80 games. How has that not sunk in for you?

It’s possible that he does and it’s possible he doesn’t. Anything can happen. A lot has gone right for him this season - that would obviously have to continue. Things can go wrong at any time. Saying anything is a lock is foolish, especially when you’re talking about production totals that haven’t been seen in nearly 30 years.
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Last year McDavid had abysmal puck luck. 8.2% 5v5 on ice sh%. His career average before that was 10.5%. 20+% lower than his career average, it was a down year for him.

Compared to the other top 10 scorers:

Gaudreau 13.%
Huberdeau 10.2%
Draisaitl 9.4%
Kaprizov 11.8%
Matthews 11.8%
Stamkos 12.4%
Tkachuk 12.4%
Miller 9.2%
Marner 12.4%

This year his puck luck still sucks at 8.8%.
 
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Garbageyuk said:
His ES shooting percentage is down because he’s taking more shots, as he’s now the primary goal scoring option on the team. That’s also why he’s not getting as many secondary assists - he’s the one finishing most plays now, and setting them up less.

I’d say that’s part of what’s going right.
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The poster you're replying to was talking about on-ice shooting %, which is different from individual shooting %. I think we're getting to the crux of why you've got such a bad take.
 
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Garbageyuk said:
His ES shooting percentage is down because he’s taking more shots, as he’s now the primary goal scoring option on the team. That’s also why he’s not getting as many secondary assists - he’s the one finishing most plays now, and setting them up less.

I’d say that’s part of what’s going right.
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That doesn’t work though because he actually has the highest individual shooting percentage of his career at 5v5 and at ES. In fact it shows how poorly those around him are finishing, because he’s both shooting more and shooting at a high individual clip and his on-ice shooting percentage is still low.

If we take away his shots this year, the rest of the team is shooting 6.2% with him on the ice 5v5 and 7.4% with him on the ice at ES. Over the rest of his career, those numbers are 9.1% and 9.9%. If the team was shooting those career averages, McDavid would be on the ice for 49 5v5 goals instead of 40, and 59 ES goals instead of 50, which would likely be another 7 points given he historically gets a point on over 80% of the goals scored when he’s on the ice.

We can also look at the fact that he’s underperforming his xGF when on the ice, when typically players on his skill level and finishing ability overperform their expected goals, and historically that’s what he’s done in his career. It’s possible something else is going on and the decrease will continue, but it’s unlikely given the large sample we have of the past. All signs point to his 5v5 and ES points increasing as the year goes on.
 
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Regal said:
That doesn’t work though because he actually has the highest individual shooting percentage of his career at 5v5 and at ES. In fact it shows how poorly those around him are finishing, because he’s both shooting more and shooting at a high individual clip and his on-ice shooting percentage is still low.

If we take away his shots this year, the rest of the team is shooting 6.2% with him on the ice 5v5 and 7.4% with him on the ice at ES. Over the rest of his career, those numbers are 9.1% and 9.9%. If the team was shooting those career averages, McDavid would be on the ice for 49 5v5 goals instead of 40, and 59 ES goals instead of 50, which would likely be another 7 points given he historically gets a point on over 80% of the goals scored when he’s on the ice.

We can also look at the fact that he’s underperforming his xGF when on the ice, when typically players on his skill level and finishing ability overperform their expected goals, and historically that’s what he’s done in his career. It’s possible something else is going on and the decrease will continue, but it’s unlikely given the large sample we have of the past. All signs point to his 5v5 and ES points increasing as the year goes on.
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Thanks for detailed analysis. In any case, I’d love to see him reach these lofty milestones.
 
AnInjuredJasonZucker said:
The poster you're replying to was talking about on-ice shooting %, which is different from individual shooting %. I think we're getting to the crux of why you've got such a bad take.
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No matter how you break it down, it isn’t a bad take. Not when he’s never hit 150, or even 130 before, nobody has in nearly 30 years, and there are numerous factors working against him. An injury is all it would take, or a slump, or the coach deciding to save him for the playoffs, etc, etc. There’s too many variables and things going on to say he’s a lock for anything. That was my point.

As usual, HF can never seem to separate what they want to happen from what is likely to happen. For most on here there’s no difference. Everything has to be black and white, and pace and expectations are the same as results - until they aren’t.

Good old HF ❤️
 
Garbageyuk said:
No matter how you break it down, it isn’t a bad take. Not when he’s never hit 150, or even 130 before, nobody has in nearly 30 years, and there are numerous factors working against him. An injury is all it would take, or a slump, or the coach deciding to save him for the playoffs, etc, etc. There’s too many variables and things going on to say he’s a lock for anything. That was my point.

As usual, HF can never seem to separate what they want to happen from what is likely to happen. For most on here there’s no difference. Everything has to be black and white, and pace and expectations are the same as results - until they aren’t.

Good old HF ❤️
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Recall, though, that your take is that he's likely to hit 120-130. To back up that prediction, you're using multiple misunderstandings of how statistics work such as not knowing the difference between individual shooting % and on-ice shooting %, or that pace at game 47 is a better indicator of outcome than pace at game 25.

The assumption at this point is that you're trolling.
 
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TheAngryHank said:
Wasn't that enough for Benn to win a scoring title? perspective.
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Before people reply with "scoring was lower", the 2014-15 Art Ross is one of the weakest ever according to Hockey Reference's adjusted model. Not only is it the only season below 100 adjusted points since 1968-69, it's one of only 4 below 110.
 
TheAngryHank said:
In roughly half a season.. and some aren't impressed.
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It's kind of sad. Those people are only robbing themselves of the chance to experience this. Regardless of team affiliations or personal biases, it shouldn't be hard to admit that what McDavid is doing is special. And who knows how long it'll be until we see another player score like its the '80s again?
 
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Hynh said:
Before people reply with "scoring was lower", the 2014-15 Art Ross is one of the weakest ever according to Hockey Reference's adjusted model. Not only is it the only season below 100 adjusted points since 1968-69, it's one of only 4 below 110.
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Still impressive home boy has that total in just over 1/2 a season.
 
52 points in his final 34 games gets him to 140 points, which has occurred just 24 times in league history by 9 different players:

140+ point seasons:

Gretzky x11
Lemieux x5
Esposito x2
Yzerman, Nicholls, Jagr, LaFontaine, Bossy, and Oates x1

62 in his final 34 games means he joins Yzerman, Esposito, and Nicholls as the only players other than Gretzky and Lemieux to hit 150.

Other than Esposito, every single one of these 140+ point seasons occurred between 1980-1981 through 1995-1996.
 
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