Player Discussion Marner

[Antropovsky]

Yup. And as has been said many times, it's not only on Marner, he just happens to be the most glaring example of someone who folds under pressure.

I can't be bothered to crunch Marner's numbers right now but his production goes roughly like this:

Regular season:
~100 point pace - excellent

Playoffs, first 4 games:
~95 point pace, in line with the ~5% drop in scoring that comes in the playoffs - still excellent

Playoffs, after 4 games:
~40 point pace, falls off a cliff WTF disaster


There have been some weird posts ITT but that's definitely one of the stranger this I've read here. Can't wait for the explanation/spin on this one.

Ask any hockey player and they'll tell you that there's nothing like a game 7. It's the highest pressure situation a hockey player will ever be in, and at the same it's exciting, exhilarating, it's what they have been dreaming about and hoping to experience since they were kids. Amazing that some people think that game 7 is the same as any other game.

It's like he's afraid of contact or something. I wish he had a bit of Doug Gilmour's fearlessness in him, he'd be an incredible player.

It's very telling that Marner fans love to point to his playoff points as proof he's the most valuable Leaf, yet they avoid breaking down the goals those points came from. If you actually review them, the most replaceable player in the sequence is almost always Marner, while the standout play,the elite moment—comes from his teammates. Marner fans know this, which is why, despite my asking them repeatedlyto review the goals, they all refuse.

 

[GoonieFace]

It's very telling that Marner fans love to point to his playoff points as proof he's the most valuable Leaf, yet they avoid breaking down the goals those points came from. If you actually review them, the most replaceable player in the sequence is almost always Marner, while the standout play,the elite moment—comes from his teammates. Marner fans know this, which is why, despite my asking them repeatedlyto review the goals, they all refuse.

Sam Howell threw for 4000 yards last season. Sometimes stats can be deceiving

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Is 0.4 expected goals per 60 good ?

 

[notbias]

View attachment 919198

Is 0.4 expected goals per 60 good ?

When you are primarily someone driving play and setting up others and the other two people on your line are #1 and #4 on this list, yes, it is really good.

 

[notDatsyuk]

When you are primarily someone driving play and setting up others and the other two people on your line are #1 and #4 on this list, yes, it is really good.

So Domi at 0.5 driving plays and setting up others and the other two people in his line are #2 and #3 (with a higher combined than #1 and #4) is even better.

 

[notbias]

So Domi at 0.5 driving plays and setting up others and the other two people in his line are #2 and #3 (with a higher combined than #1 and #4) is even better.

ummmm... Knies/Matthews/Marner has a higher xGF/60 than any other line.

#1 - 4.55 for Knies/Matthews/Marner
#2 - 3.86 for Domi/Tavares/Nylander

That's a big gap.

You may want to look into the stats a little more before posting.

 

[thewave]

ummmm... Knies/Matthews/Marner has a higher xGF/60 than any other line.

#1 - 4.55 for Knies/Matthews/Marner
#2 - 3.86 for Domi/Tavares/Nylander

That's a big gap.

You may want to look into the stats a little more before posting.

Are you making the jokes?

I hope the line with all that money on it is .7 better. Don't count the net negative JT towards anything.

 

[arso40]

Are you making the jokes?

I hope the line with all that money on it is .7 better. Don't count the net negative JT towards anything.

Curious what the stat with the bmw line is

 

[notbias]

Curious what the stat with the bmw line is

58.3% xGF%, 3.8 xGF/60

Third best line.

Switching out McMann and Tavares basically makes no difference.

They look better on the stat sheet than most because McMann and Nylander have really high shooting %, but they are still dominating play.

Tavares/Holmberg/Robertson has been the worst line by a mile.

 

[arso40]

58.3% xGF%, 3.8 xGF/60

Third best line.

Switching out McMann and Tavares basically makes no difference.

They look better on the stat sheet than most because McMann and Nylander have really high shooting %, but they are still dominating play.

Tavares/Holmberg/Robertson has been the worst line by a mile.

Why isn’t Robertson on his strong side if Holmbergs natural position is the off wing

 

[notDatsyuk]

ummmm... Knies/Matthews/Marner has a higher xGF/60 than any other line.

#1 - 4.55 for Knies/Matthews/Marner
#2 - 3.86 for Domi/Tavares/Nylander

That's a big gap.

You may want to look into the stats a little more before posting.

I was just using the stats from the post that you quoted.

Nylander (1.74) + Tavares (1.65) + Domi (0.50) = 3.89
Matthews (2.10) + Knies (1.17) + Marner (0.40) = 3.67

 

[notbias]

I was just using the stats from the post that you quoted.

Nylander (1.74) + Tavares (1.65) + Domi (0.50) = 3.89
Matthews (2.10) + Knies (1.17) + Marner (0.40) = 3.67

Well, that makes no sense since Domi has had multiple linemmates for significant time.

 

[notDatsyuk]

Well, that makes no sense since Domi has had multiple linemmates for significant time.

The whole thing really makes no sense.

Just having a lie fun at the idea of "I can add three out-of-context numbers" to prove *something*.

 

[Dekes For Days]

The point is Ferris said Marner's player comparables were his teammates, not players on other teams.

Again, what Ferris actually said is "That is one of the factors that you bring into it, that there is a comparison of players on his team". Not exclusively. Not who. Not whether all attempted comparables were accepted by the team. Not how they were compared, or that status was ignored. Not what other comparables and factors Marner's side brought into the negotiations. Not what comparables and factors the team's side brought into the negotiations. Not how the contract was formed. Not that Marner's contract was inflated or constrained by internal contracts, or derived from UFA contracts.

The only information you actually have is that, according to Ferris, one of the factors that Marner' side wanted to bring into the negotiation were teammate comparisons. And that Marner's contract doesn't correlate with Tavares, but does correlate with the history of post-ELC contracts.

 

[Dekes For Days]

You simply can not and will not address his lacknof performance in high stakes games. You will not address his turnovers that are constant when he is under pressure.

I literally addressed all of that and then some, in both the post you quoted and in the posts I linked for you. You simply cannot accept that your perceptions are wrong.

How about you reiterate your position in a couple sentences that aren't running around in circles. Just be concise.

When I'm concise, you don't accept it. When I explain in detail, you don't read it. There are both short and long posts available for you. Don't jump into discussions and accuse people of not addressing things when they already have, and you really just can't be bothered to read it.

 

[leafs in five]

It's very telling that Marner fans love to point to his playoff points as proof he's the most valuable Leaf, yet they avoid breaking down the goals those points came from. If you actually review them, the most replaceable player in the sequence is almost always Marner, while the standout play,the elite moment—comes from his teammates. Marner fans know this, which is why, despite my asking them repeatedlyto review the goals, they all refuse.

damn that is really telling

 

[leafs in five]

View attachment 919198

Is 0.4 expected goals per 60 good ?

Players shouldn't have the pressure of scoring, we should judge them on expected goals

 

[Antropovsky]

damn that is really telling

This one’s for you, @thusk and @francis246:

Marner’s first playoff goal after an 18-game drought. yes, 18 straight playoff games without a goal. That’s quite the stretch for an $11 million forward, isn’t it?

Now watch this goal, Marners linemates do everything but put the puck in the empty net for him:

1) Leafs are up 3-0, so Tampa’s probably loosened up their defense to push for a goal.
2) Tampa 3rd or 4th line on ice.
3) Matthews, Kerfoot, and Reilly enter the Tampa zone with speed, while four Tampa players collapse around the goalie.
4) Kerfoot heads straight to Vasi’s crease.
5) Reilly drives to the net and dishes it to Marner, who’s wide open. Vasi drops down, expecting Reilly to shoot.
6) Vasi can’t see anything because Kerfoot is practically sitting on his head. Vasi guesses wrong and Marner has an empty cage to shoot into.

Yay! Wow, Marner! That’s all it took to break your 18-game goal drought, your linemates to give you a wide-open net, the oppositions 4th line and no one defending you!

 

[Dekes For Days]

1.) the entire post still has zero reference to any historical precedent that’s similar total/pace goals and points lead to an 18% difference in contracts for same time period and position. Zero. 2.) I am not arguing that Marner was more or less impactful. You are. That has nothing to do with Marner having a contract in line with his peers. You subjectively belief and argue that Marners points were somehow more pressive based on opportunity. Sure. You have no evidence that contracts are pro rated by opportunity. Ie. nic Robertson scored more goals per 60 Than any leaf save Matthews. He didn’t get paid like Willy.
3.) draistl got paid like a 15% aav player. He wasn’t worth less because he scores tons on pp. it didn’t matter how he got the points. Pp. short handed etc.
All of your subjective beliefs about marners performance are fine. But you cannot prove at all that drastic differences happen based on one team having more special teams opportunities than another.

Once again, nobody said anything about PP production being ignored. Only put in context. Even when factoring in ice time, Draisaitl is the 3rd best producer of PP points in the league over the past 3 years. And according to your metrics that you randomly decided are the only things ever considered, he should have gotten the highest cap hit percentage in history. But he didn't. Because context! Robertson was tied for 4th on the team in 5v5 goals per 60 over his ELC, not 2nd, and while everybody knows he has a great shot, you're ignoring the rest of the picture on purpose. Of course he didn't get paid like Nylander, because that's all he had, even that was only done in a tiny sample of sheltered minutes against bottom tier opposition, and he's a depth player being squeezed into a 1 year prove it contract instead of a star signing long-term. Your metrics don't explain his contract, and if anything, it really just shows the importance of the kind of context that I'm trying to use, and you want to ignore.

You haven't supported any of your claims, even though you are the one arguing against what actually happened, and proclaiming it to be wrong. You have only dismissed all countering evidence when it's not the very specific example of an unprecedented situation that you demand. Yes, we do know that PP ice time has a massive impact on raw PP production. That's why they have insanely high correlation. That's why, for example, 70% of the top-20 raw PP point seasons in the cap era are from just the first two seasons of the cap era, when PP time was spiking at its highest. You ignore that, and that contracts align better when PP time information is factored in. You see players that were compensated in a similar way as Marner, based on your own metrics, but you dismiss them to focus on one specific comparable that didn't even exist when Marner was signing. Among those two, you see a gap in player quality that's very aligned with the gap in contracts, and you can't fathom that they are related. You see contracts constantly impacted by context, but you can't fathom that context is considered here. You see contracts constantly accounting for opportunity-based discrepancies outside of a player's control specifically, and you can't fathom that it's a factor when a giant, obvious one exists.

If you want to ignore everything that isn't one cherry picked comparable and a couple cherry picked stats that you've arbitrarily decided on, that's your choice, but you're going to keep being confused by contracts and coming to wrong conclusions.

 

[leafs in five]

This one’s for you, @thusk and @francis246:

Marner’s first playoff goal after an 18-game drought. yes, 18 straight playoff games without a goal. That’s quite the stretch for an $11 million forward, isn’t it?

Now watch this goal, Marners linemates do everything but put the puck in the empty net for him:

1) Leafs are up 3-0, so Tampa’s probably loosened up their defense to push for a goal.
2) Tampa 3rd or 4th line on ice.
3) Matthews, Kerfoot, and Reilly enter the Tampa zone with speed, while four Tampa players collapse around the goalie.
4) Kerfoot heads straight to Vasi’s crease.
5) Reilly drives to the net and dishes it to Marner, who’s wide open. Vasi drops down, expecting Reilly to shoot.
6) Vasi can’t see anything because Kerfoot is practically sitting on his head. Vasi guesses wrong and Marner has an empty cage to shoot into.

Yay! Wow, Marner! That’s all it took to break your 18-game goal drought, your linemates to give you a wide-open net, the oppositions 4th line and no one defending you!

thanks for making a post for me

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Players shouldn't have the pressure of scoring, we should judge them on expected goals

LOL

 

[rumman]

When you don't sign the next one. Sorry Mitch.

Agree…….

 

[HamiltonNHL]

Marner’s first playoff goal after an 18-game drought. yes, 18 straight playoff games without a goal. That’s quite the stretch for an $11 million forward, isn’t it?

WOW.

18.

and scores a nothing burger goal extending a 3 goal lead.

 

[rumman]

The Nylander over pay was a result of the Marner over pay so at what point does it stop?

Has to end now, JT and Marner cap space should be redistributed throughout the line up………

 

[HamiltonNHL]

When you don't sign the next one. Sorry Mitch.

It`s this.

Unless Tre wants to `tinker around the edges` for the next 8 years.

You have to risk getting worse to build something better.

Has to end now, JT and Marner cap space should be redistributed throughout the line up………

Hopefully Stolarz and Woll are due big raises.

Tre picked Nylander over Marner.