Player Discussion Marner

[Dekes For Days]

There are no posts at those links. Basically go fish and hunt for likely a random comment that will not satisfy. On the last one you mentioned St Louis.

They are direct links to my posts, addressing things you falsely claimed I don't address. Posts #1443 and #1509 in "Does Marner get Boo'd" and post #8757 in the offseason trade thread. There is no mention of St Louis...

 

[thewave]

They are direct links to my posts, addressing things you falsely claimed I don't address. Posts #1443 and #1509 in "Does Marner get Boo'd" and post #8757 in the offseason trade thread. There is no mention of St Louis...

Only have time for 1443 at the moment. Jt wn am 80+% mm 43% picking up a point. So you admit he trails off in game 5 6 7.

The resti is more evasion. What the difference between g4 and g5. Eye test is terrible during those games as well. What about his ineffectiveness on the pp. Tossing pucks over the boards. The giveaways. Lots of them.

You are a cherry picker when it comes to MM

 

[diceman934]

He’s not even the 2nd best player on that line anymore.

Knies has been much more active and impactful than Marner thus far.

It’s unfortunate that Dubas left us so pathetically thin at Centre that we have to force Domi at centre.

Domi showed much better chemistry and Matthews played better with him than Marner.

Every season Marner starts stapled to Matthews, and every season Matthews explodes offensively after Marner is finally removed from his wing.

Thats when all the cutesy putesy overs passing shit finally stops and Matthews plays like he can.

He wears #16 I seriously think you do not watch games at all or you simply lack a understanding of what you are watching. Mathews benefits playing with Marner as seen by the goal totals.

 

[Hellcat]

Apparently only the regular season and the first 4 games of the playoffs matter. Then it's OK to stop playing, just lose and blame it on "a bounce here and a bounce there". There are enough gullible casual fans that will fall for it every time.

... because that is what was said/implied. Perhaps if you read for comprehension vs reading for an argument, you wouldn't be so argumentative all the time...

The elimination games are less important?

Avoiding answering the very simple to answer questions? Why?

 

[LeafSteel]

He wears #16 I seriously think you do not watch games at all or you simply lack a understanding of what you are watching. Mathews benefits playing with Marner as seen by the goal totals.

Such a laughable post, I seriously think you do not watch games at all or lack an understanding of what you are watching.

Marner benefits from playing with Matthews as seen by the goal totals.

You validate Marner on the 1st line because Matthews “scores goals”???

Newsflash genius: Matthews scores goals because he can, not because of anything magical or crucial that Marner does.

Matthew’s scores goals because he is a goal scorer, and he scores with anyone.

He doesn’t need Marner on his line to score, he just needs a stick in his hand.

Thanks for the laugh, but I think you should try harder.

 

[Maple Leaf]

When Marner is not putting up points, he is a reliable defensive player
-Paul Marner

 

[Hellcat]

Of course they are important. But playoff games are not the same as regular season, and the playoff game importance also increases as the series goes on. It really shouldn’t need to be explained that game 1 is much less important than game 7, and that there’s an incredible amount of additional pressure in elimination games. Marner is horrible as the pressure increases, and it’s not a small sample size. It’s near 10 years.

No one is saying he’s not a great player. He just lets the team down most when needed, and this is not something the leafs need when we already have Nylander and Matthews underperforming in the playoffs as well. All our stars have sucked, it’s just that Marner has sucked harder, especially relative to contracts.

I have no clue what the issue is with saying that and why everyone is so obsessed with defending him.

Every game is important in a playoff series. If it is not an elimination game, the first 4 games is more of an indicator than the last 3 games. If the series is tied after the first 4 games, it is a toss up, who wins the series. Based on odds the first 4 games is more important.

Up 1-0, 68.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 2-0, 86.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-0, 98% Chance of Winning Series

Up 2-1, 69.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-1, 90.6% Chance of Winning Series

Up 3-2, 78.6% Chance of Winning Series

Series Tied 1-1, 52.2% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 2-2, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 3-3, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series

 

[Antropovsky]

He wears #16 I seriously think you do not watch games at all or you simply lack a understanding of what you are watching. Mathews benefits playing with Marner as seen by the goal totals.

Big benefits playing with Marner:

Matthews g/60 with Marner:
2024 - 1.58 g/60
2023 - 1.33 g/60

Matthews g/60 with:
2024 Domi - 3.19 g/60
2019 Marleau - 1.8 g/60

 

[Aashir]

Every game is important in a playoff series. If it is not an elimination game, the first 4 games is more of an indicator than the last 3 games. If the series is tied after the first 4 games, it is a toss up, who wins the series. Based on odds the first 4 games is more important.

Up 1-0, 68.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 2-0, 86.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-0, 98% Chance of Winning Series

Up 2-1, 69.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-1, 90.6% Chance of Winning Series

Up 3-2, 78.6% Chance of Winning Series

Series Tied 1-1, 52.2% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 2-2, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 3-3, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series

These are great stats, but they don’t apply to the leafs

We’ve been up and down I think almost every kind of way except 3-0 up. Every split of a series, we’ve lost.

For the current leafs, who almost always make it to game 5-6-7, those are going to be seen with a 10000x magnifying glass. That’s where Marner (and many others, not just him) crumble hard. It happens year after year so people are fed up

Game 6 and 7 in our case matter a ton more IMO, because in almost every series, either we can win the series in that game, or we can force a game 7.

 

[Arzak]

Big benefits playing with Marner:

Matthews g/60 with Marner:
2024 - 1.58 g/60
2023 - 1.33 g/60

Matthews g/60 with:
2024 Domi - 3.19 g/60
2019 Marleau - 1.8 g/60

Yeah he keeps on keeping on : "Good players boost each other." Forget that we saw Matthews doing at least as good without Mitch. Forget numbers telling you the same. Mitch elite ! Elite players boost each other! It is known!

One lives off Selke nomination, and the other hunts 70 goals. Same same

 

[Dekes For Days]

Only have time for 1443 at the moment. Jt wn am 80+% mm 43% picking up a point. So you admit he trails off in game 5 6 7.
The resti is more evasion. What the difference between g4 and g5. Eye test is terrible during those games as well. What about his ineffectiveness on the pp. Tossing pucks over the boards. The giveaways. Lots of them.
You are a cherry picker when it comes to MM

Weird how you had all the time in the world to make false claims, but no time to own up to it. Whether or not you agree with me does not change that I addressed it. In later games, Marner maintains strong underlying play, contributes to a ton of goals for, and contributes to allowing some of the least goals against. He just gets an abnormally low amount of point credit for his contributions in that tiny sample of games, and that fools some people who only look at point totals in very cherry picked games into thinking he sucks.

Evasion? The whole X game argument is literally an evasion from Marner being the best playoff producer on the team. You also followed the evasion claim by evading answering the distinction between games 4 and 5. And if you think game 4 (his best producing game) is the same, then you've either mistakenly admitted that points aren't perfect, or that you can't be objective when watching Marner.

The PP? He has the most playoff PP points on the team.
Penalties? He has the best penalty differential on the team.
Giveaways? Nothing abnormal, especially as the top playmaker on the team. Has more takeaways, and the second best ratio of the core 4.
Great examples of how disconnected many perceptions are from the truth.

You accuse others of cherry picking when you're literally ignoring everything and making claims based exclusively on production in a very specific minority of games. Reflect a bit.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

No team can afford paying 10AAV+ for assists.

We have to move on.

 

[thewave]

... because that is what was said/implied. Perhaps if you read for comprehension vs reading for an argument, you wouldn't be so argumentative all the time...



Avoiding answering the very simple to answer questions? Why?

Yes you avoided mine originally. I am still waiting for that one.

 

[thewave]

Weird how you had all the time in the world to make false claims, but no time to own up to it. Whether or not you agree with me does not change that I addressed it. In later games, Marner maintains strong underlying play, contributes to a ton of goals for, and contributes to allowing some of the least goals against. He just gets an abnormally low amount of point credit for his contributions in that tiny sample of games, and that fools some people who only look at point totals in very cherry picked games into thinking he sucks.

Evasion? The whole X game argument is literally an evasion from Marner being the best playoff producer on the team. You also followed the evasion claim by evading answering the distinction between games 4 and 5. And if you think game 4 (his best producing game) is the same, then you've either mistakenly admitted that points aren't perfect, or that you can't be objective when watching Marner.

The PP? He has the most playoff PP points on the team.
Penalties? He has the best penalty differential on the team.
Giveaways? Nothing abnormal, especially as the top playmaker on the team. Has more takeaways, and the second best ratio of the core 4.
Great examples of how disconnected many perceptions are from the truth.

You accuse others of cherry picking when you're literally ignoring everything and making claims based exclusively on production in a very specific minority of games. Reflect a bit.

You simply can not and will not address his lacknof performance in high stakes games. You will not address his turnovers that are constant when he is under pressure. He fires the puck away all the time. Jake Gardiner got roasted for life over a single playoff play that was less detrimental to team success than the sum of Marners failures.

How about you reiterate your position in a couple sentences that aren't running around in circles. Just be concise.

 

[francis246]

He’s not even the 2nd best player on that line anymore.

Knies has been much more active and impactful than Marner thus far.

It’s unfortunate that Dubas left us so pathetically thin at Centre that we have to force Domi at centre.

Domi showed much better chemistry and Matthews played better with him than Marner.

Every season Marner starts stapled to Matthews, and every season Matthews explodes offensively after Marner is finally removed from his wing.

Thats when all the cutesy putesy overs passing shit finally stops and Matthews plays like he can.

Marner is tied for the team lead in points right now. There’s nothing wrong with the line, except Matthews isn’t burying at his normal rate that we are expecting. That’s literally it. Otherwise the top 2 lines have been pretty lights out for the leafs and good in all zones.

The biggest issue is the PP. that needs to be broken into two different units. Marner on one, Matthews on the other.

 

[thewave]

Marner is tied for the team lead in points right now. There’s nothing wrong with the line, except Matthews isn’t burying at his normal rate that we are expecting. That’s literally it. Otherwise the top 2 lines have been pretty lights out for the leafs and good in all zones.

The biggest issue is the PP. that needs to be broken into two different units. Marner on one, Matthews on the other.

Yes he is going to get a lot of points. He can make a play. That gets apples. He does not drive a line or score a ton of goals
That's problematic when the Mr money man comes to the table.

Hypothetically. I am the money guy. This is how it goes.

AM you are the best goal scorer in the world. You want like 13m and the aC, no problem. OK that's done.

WN you are the best at gaining a zone, can drive a line but have warts. Your have hit 40 goals true and are clutch for the most part. The best I cam do is 9.5m with the league comparables. I understand you were underpaid in your first contract. If I really have to make this right, 10m and you get a letter.

MM you have been overpaid since your last contract vs league comparables. I don't see you driving aline. Are soft in a physical playoff series and have fallen off when we needed you most. That being said you do well overall comparably. I am willing to match WN 9.5m. Maybe match the 10m.

That is if I am the negotiator. The owner and final say. That's where I would stand and for a lot more reasons than listed. Not going to go over everything here

 

[HellasLEAF]

1 goal, 4 assist in first 5. 3 games blanked.

Mitch really coming out of the gate laying the gauntlet down

Still playing well defensively mind you.

 

[LeafSteel]

Yes he is going to get a lot of points. He can make a play. That gets apples. He does not drive a line or score a ton of goals
That's problematic when the Mr money man comes to the table.

Hypothetically. I am the money guy. This is how it goes.

AM you are the best goal scorer in the world. You want like 13m and the aC, no problem. OK that's done.

WN you are the best at gaining a zone, can drive a line but have warts. Your have hit 40 goals true and are clutch for the most part. The best I cam do is 9.5m with the league comparables. I understand you were underpaid in your first contract. If I really have to make this right, 10m and you get a letter.

MM you have been overpaid since your last contract vs league comparables. I don't see you driving aline. Are soft in a physical playoff series and have fallen off when we needed you most. That being said you do well overall comparably. I am willing to match WN 9.5m. Maybe match the 10m.

That is if I am the negotiator. The owner and final say. That's where I would stand and for a lot more reasons than listed. Not going to go over everything here

Agreed with all of this.

Matthews is Matthews and that is all.

Nylander well outplayed his previous contract and should have come in at $9.5-10.

Marner already overpaid and wants more?

He needs to move on and better spend $12m that he wants to further strengthen and balance the team, starting at Centre.

Marner is tied for the team lead in points right now. There’s nothing wrong with the line, except Matthews isn’t burying at his normal rate that we are expecting. That’s literally it. Otherwise the top 2 lines have been pretty lights out for the leafs and good in all zones.

The biggest issue is the PP. that needs to be broken into two different units. Marner on one, Matthews on the other.

Yes he is going to get a lot of points. He can make a play. That gets apples. He does not drive a line or score a ton of goals
That's problematic when the Mr money man comes to the table.

Hypothetically. I am the money guy. This is how it goes.

AM you are the best goal scorer in the world. You want like 13m and the aC, no problem. OK that's done.

WN you are the best at gaining a zone, can drive a line but have warts. Your have hit 40 goals true and are clutch for the most part. The best I cam do is 9.5m with the league comparables. I understand you were underpaid in your first contract. If I really have to make this right, 10m and you get a letter.

MM you have been overpaid since your last contract vs league comparables. I don't see you driving aline. Are soft in a physical playoff series and have fallen off when we needed you most. That being said you do well overall comparably. I am willing to match WN 9.5m. Maybe match the 10m.

That is if I am the negotiator. The owner and final say. That's where I would stand and for a lot more reasons than listed. Not going to go over everything here

Just putting this here.

 

[hamzarocks]

Agreed with all of this.

Matthews is Matthews and that is all.

Nylander well outplayed his previous contract and should have come in at $9.5-10.

Marner already overpaid and wants more?

He needs to move on and better spend $12m that he wants to further strengthen and balance the team, starting at Centre.

The leafs likely getting 22M is a blessing very rarely gifted to teams

If Marner has a strong plyoffs, I tell him 11.5M x 8 is final offer, take it or leave it. He isnt much better than nylander now, and he made a lot more then he should have last time so he doesnt get much of a raise

If he has a normal marner playoffs, then bye bye and move on

Tavares barring winning the conn smythe needs to be gone

Use that 22M to add 3-4 players who can be expected to give excess value and be big time playoff players who fit within Berubes system

We need our Bennett, Montour, Forsling, Reinhart and need to move on from 91 and 16(*barring a different look from him in the playoffs)

 

[francis246]

The leafs likely getting 22M is a blessing very rarely gifted to teams

If Marner has a strong plyoffs, I tell him 11.5M x 8 is final offer, take it or leave it. He isnt much better than nylander now, and he made a lot more then he should have last time so he doesnt get much of a raise

If he has a normal marner playoffs, then bye bye and move on

Tavares barring winning the conn smythe needs to be gone

Use that 22M to add 3-4 players who can be expected to give excess value and be big time playoff players who fit within Berubes system

We need our Bennett, Montour, Forsling, Reinhart and need to move on from 91 and 16(*barring a different look from him in the playoffs)

You guys say this like it’s NHL 24. The players HAVE TO WANT TO COME HERE.

That’s why banking on UFA is stupid as hell. You cannot guarantee anything. Just the last two summers alone. How many interviews have we seen with players saying, yeah the leafs reached out but I decided to go else where. Be realistic. You want to know how Florida acquired those guys you named? Through trade. Not through UFA.

Bennett the acquired from our current GM for Pennie’s on the dollar. Montour they got for cheap from Anaheim. Forsling they got off waivers. Reinhart they got through a trade with Buffalo. If you want to build your team you have to acquire younger players with term when other teams are selling them at low value. Not by over spending on UFA. Colorado did the same thing with with their roster. Got Toews when NYI wanted to shed cap. Got Kadri from us when we wanted to give him away for free. Got Burakovsky for very cheap. Got Samuel Girard for cheap.

That’s the formula. Buy low on young assets and inject them into your lineup. They have to be on value contracts so that they will out perform their contracts.

 

[hamzarocks]

You guys say this like it’s NHL 24. The players HAVE TO WANT TO COME HERE.

That’s why banking on UFA is stupid as hell. You cannot guarantee anything. Just the last two summers alone. How many interviews have we seen with players saying, yeah the leafs reached out but I decided to go else where. Be realistic. You want to know how Florida acquired those guys you named? Through trade. Not through UFA.

Bennett the acquired from our current GM for Pennie’s on the dollar. Montour they got for cheap from Anaheim. Forsling they got off waivers. Reinhart they got through a trade with Buffalo. If you want to build your team you have to acquire younger players with term when other teams are selling them at low value. Not by over spending on UFA. Colorado did the same thing with with their roster. Got Toews when NYI wanted to shed cap. Got Kadri from us when we wanted to give him away for free. Got Burakovsky for very cheap. Got Samuel Girard for cheap.

That’s the formula. Buy low on young assets and inject them into your lineup. They have to be on value contracts so that they will out perform their contracts.

Having 22M in space will allow you to make those value trades as well

Ideally 91 and 16 would have been dealt for value to usher in a new era and move on from two guys who were deemed not good enough to invest into.

However, that cap space is a strong play in itself and we can afford to make buy low trades and take a 1-year bounce back candidate type of deal where another promising/potential breakout asset os attached with little/no value given up in exchange.

Also having capspace will allow to look at potential UFAs who could break out/blossom in the leafs system or sign a RFA to an offersheet as well if needed

Having 22M gives a ton of cap flexability and lets us move on from the parts of the core determined to be flawed beyond repair.

Marner can avoid that by playing great in the playoffs and then taking a fair deal. However as of now, he shouldn't be in the teams long-term plans.

 

[Madap]

Every game is important in a playoff series. If it is not an elimination game, the first 4 games is more of an indicator than the last 3 games. If the series is tied after the first 4 games, it is a toss up, who wins the series. Based on odds the first 4 games is more important.

Up 1-0, 68.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 2-0, 86.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-0, 98% Chance of Winning Series

Up 2-1, 69.3% Chance of Winning Series
Up 3-1, 90.6% Chance of Winning Series

Up 3-2, 78.6% Chance of Winning Series

Series Tied 1-1, 52.2% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 2-2, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series
Series Tied 3-3, 48.4% Chance of Winning Series

I have no idea how these stats support your argument whatsoever. Yeah if you have a lead you’re more likely than not to win a series.

And from what PoV are you even saying for the last 3 stats? How can both teams have a 52.2 percent chance of winning. It makes no sense.

Later games are very clearly more important because you don’t have an opportunity to make up for it. Even if you don’t agree with “more important”, it’s very clearly more pressure for the same reason.

 

[Antropovsky]

Berubes' post game he indicated he wasnt happy with how players were moving East West again. Im sure irs going to be hardest to convince Marner to go towards the net. Hes gotten very comfortable playing outside the dirty areas and just throwing pucks into the slot.

 

[Gary Nylund]

These are great stats, but they don’t apply to the leafs

We’ve been up and down I think almost every kind of way except 3-0 up. Every split of a series, we’ve lost.

For the current leafs, who almost always make it to game 5-6-7, those are going to be seen with a 10000x magnifying glass. That’s where Marner (and many others, not just him) crumble hard. It happens year after year so people are fed up

Game 6 and 7 in our case matter a ton more IMO, because in almost every series, either we can win the series in that game, or we can force a game 7.

Yup. And as has been said many times, it's not only on Marner, he just happens to be the most glaring example of someone who folds under pressure.

I can't be bothered to crunch Marner's numbers right now but his production goes roughly like this:

Regular season:
~100 point pace - excellent

Playoffs, first 4 games:
~95 point pace, in line with the ~5% drop in scoring that comes in the playoffs - still excellent

Playoffs, after 4 games:
~40 point pace, falls off a cliff WTF disaster

I have no idea how these stats support your argument whatsoever. Yeah if you have a lead you’re more likely than not to win a series.

And from what PoV are you even saying for the last 3 stats? How can both teams have a 52.2 percent chance of winning. It makes no sense.

Later games are very clearly more important because you don’t have an opportunity to make up for it. Even if you don’t agree with “more important”, it’s very clearly more pressure for the same reason.

There have been some weird posts ITT but that's definitely one of the stranger this I've read here. Can't wait for the explanation/spin on this one.

Ask any hockey player and they'll tell you that there's nothing like a game 7. It's the highest pressure situation a hockey player will ever be in, and at the same it's exciting, exhilarating, it's what they have been dreaming about and hoping to experience since they were kids. Amazing that some people think that game 7 is the same as any other game.

Berubes' post game he indicated he wasnt happy with how players were moving East West again. Im sure irs going to be hardest to convince Marner to go towards the net. Hes gotten very comfortable playing outside the dirty areas and just throwing pucks into the slot.

It's like he's afraid of contact or something. I wish he had a bit of Doug Gilmour's fearlessness in him, he'd be an incredible player.

 

[keonsbitterness]

His exact words were that "a comparison of players on his team" was "one of the factors that you bring into it".
Also, a comparison of teammates doesn't equate to any of the things being discussed.

No doubt factors such as term, money, and bonus structure were details that had to be nailed down to get to a deal. The point is Ferris said Marner's player comparables were his teammates, not players on other teams. And Ferris specifically cited the Tavares contract, which completely contradicts your claim that UFA deals have no effect on RFA contracts.