Player Discussion Marner

[Antropovsky]

Quoted for truth...

Honestly.... even Nylander's deal... at this stage in their careers, I'm not sure you can argue that Marner's better.

Yes, he puts up more points, but he scores a lot less goals. He doesn't really "drive" his own line, wheras Nylander does. Nylander's a threat to create a chance and bury it on his own. Marner isn't.

Sure, Marner's probably a smarter player, and much less likely to make a bonehead play at 15:00 of the second period against Columbus on a Tuesday night. He also kills penalties... but objectively, from a team construction standpoint, I think you should be asking yourself...

"Are these qualities important when talking about somebody that's going to be paid to be a premier offensive winger"? I'd argue that they're not. You're not going to "paste" Mitch Marner on Connor McDavid in a playoff series, and you're certainly not going to do so with William Nylander. The fact that you'd be a little more comfortable with Marner on the ice doesn't really matter.

At the end of the day, the Leafs have painted themselves into a real corner here...assuming a $92m cap next year, they're going to have $28 to $29m in space with 7 forwards, 5 defencemen, and 2 goalies.

Let's say you give $12m combined to Tavares and Knies... it leaves you with $17m remaining. Sure, it would be really nice to get a $7m defenceman and a $7m winger to replace Marner and fill out the roster... but where are those guys going to come from? The UFA pool is pretty sparse.

Excellent post. Last year was the time to trade Marner when the window was open, but Shanahan didnt use it and painted himself into a bad corner by giving up all negotiating power.

Dubas really got taken to the cleaners in that deal by Ferris. The nmc in the final year was a genius move on Ferris' part and a very foolish condition for Dubas to agree to.

 

[leafs in five]

All about the regular season trophies eh boys go leafs go

 

[Gary Nylund]

I've decided not to waste any more than 10 seconds on any response to you so I have to type fas

You spend most of your time and energy being insulting, no wonder your posts are a waste of time.

Lmfao we’re still using the domi limited sample size to try and claim Marner makes Matthews worse? Jesus Christ. This is a bigger reach than Burke moving up to take Tyler Biggs.

I think there is sufficient evidence to prove that splitting up Matthews and Marner could be both beneficial and effective for the team but you intentionally using a limited sample size to try and hammer that Matthews is less effective with Marner is not only a strawman, but it’s a hasty generalization and hence why people including myself feel like you are nothing but a hater.

You take small pieces of data, mostly with limited sample sizes and make considerable overgeneralizations to make sweeping claims.

I believe he was simply showing how much better players stats are when they play with Matthews, Marner included. I didn't see anything about Marner making Matthews worse.

 

[666]

You spend most of your time and energy being insulting, no wonder your posts are a waste of time.

I only respond to you so that others will see my posts, I don't care what you think.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I only respond to you so that others will see my posts, I don't care what you think.

More waste. I'm sure others are thrilled.

 

[666]

More waste. I'm sure others are thrilled.

You should rage block me. That's in your best interest.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You should rage block me. That's in your best interest.

You're the one who's raging, it's amusing to watch.

 

[666]

You're the one who's raging, it's amusing to watch.

You know, you don't have to reply. I've read that gamblers and addicts have impulse control issues.

 

[seanlinden]

I’ve mentioned this before but you need ELC guys to step up. Go look at every cup team. They have guys who have graduated from the AHL to the NHL and are big time contributors. You want to talk about what Toronto is missing and it’s exactly that. Who is going to be Toronto’s Robert Thomas/Kyrou? Who’s going to be Toronto’s Palat/Killorn? Who’s going to be Toronto’s Mason Lohrei? Or Torontos Logan Stankovan? Or Torontos Nils Hoglander or Torontos Dylan Holloway. We need to graduate quality young players.

Toronto is in a phase we’re not every cap dollar needs to be spent in UFA. Accrue the cap space for a future trade transaction.

Objectively.. signing Marner...or at least another $10m+ player... to an extent.. "promotes" the use of ELC players, because you'd probably dump the Jarnkrok's of the world to save that extra million $.

If you're not signing another "big ticket", it would be far too tempting to go out and spend on quantity / depth; thereby blocking a guy like Cowan, Minten, Grebyonkin or Steeves from coming in and becoming meaningful contributors.

Heck, look no further than Nick Robertson, who at countless times throughout the the past 3 seasons has looked like he at least deserves an opportunity to establish himself, yet constantly fell victim of the fact that he was waiver exempt.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You know, you don't have to reply. I've read that gamblers and addicts have impulse control issues.

Do you? Or are you the one with no impulse control?

 

[666]

Objectively.. signing Marner...or at least another $10m+ player... to an extent.. "promotes" the use of ELC players, because you'd probably dump the Jarnkrok's of the world to save that extra million $.

If you're not signing another "big ticket", it would be far too tempting to go out and spend on quantity / depth; thereby blocking a guy like Cowan, Minten, Grebyonkin or Steeves from coming in and becoming meaningful contributors.

Heck, look no further than Nick Robertson, who at countless times throughout the the past 3 seasons has looked like he at least deserves an opportunity to establish himself, yet constantly fell victim of the fact that he was waiver exempt.

Some great points, but you have to have the picks first and where we've been picking lately (31,28,38,57,15,53,29,17) you're not going to get much. I'd rather spend Tavares' money on guys like Domi.

Do you? Or are you the one with no impulse control?

Yeah, but I'm not the self admitted ex semi-professional gambler and I'm not at work either.

 

[seanlinden]

Some great points, but you have to have the picks first and where we've been picking lately (31,28,38,57,15,53,29,17) you're not going to get much. I'd rather spend Tavares' money on guys like Domi.

Give the Leafs some credit on this one.... but they've done a pretty decent job hitting on picks recently.

Easton Cowan was a 28th overall pick. Fraser Minten 38th overall. Nikita Grebenkin 135th overall. Matthew Knies 57th overall. Dennis Hildeby 122nd overall.

The problem the Leafs have / had -- they don't develop these guys or even give them any chance to develop at the NHL level. You've got the "4 amigos" who are out there to do all the scoring, and then they fill the bottom of the roster with "glue guys".

The challenge now... isn't the concept of spending another $11m on Marner. The way their cap structure is assembled, with the super-cheap goaltending, and lower-priced defence, is if you're not going to spend the $11m on Marner, where are you going to spend it?

$11m of Mitch Marner buys you a little more than 3 Max Domi's. Go add all those bodies, and there's 0 chance that anyone on an ELC will get into the lineup.

This is why it was so important to trade him -- not neccessarily to get out from his cap hit this year, but to get a piece, or pieces, that would allow you to shift your look up front.

 

[666]

Give the Leafs some credit on this one.... but they've done a pretty decent job hitting on picks recently.

Easton Cowan was a 28th overall pick. Fraser Minten 38th overall. Nikita Grebenkin 135th overall. Matthew Knies 57th overall. Dennis Hildeby 122nd overall.

The problem the Leafs have / had -- they don't develop these guys or even give them any chance to develop at the NHL level. You've got the "4 amigos" who are out there to do all the scoring, and then they fill the bottom of the roster with "glue guys".

Fair enough. I expect Cowan will be given a shot and Knives is already here but the problem is that it takes time for these guys to figure it out and Matthews only has a four year contract and the core will start to decline. We have a three year window coming up with a rising cap and JT hopefully gone or much cheaper. I'm all for letting the top entry level guys get a crack but I'd rather try to find proven NHLers like Domi in free agency for the next few years.

 

[francis246]

Objectively.. signing Marner...or at least another $10m+ player... to an extent.. "promotes" the use of ELC players, because you'd probably dump the Jarnkrok's of the world to save that extra million $.

If you're not signing another "big ticket", it would be far too tempting to go out and spend on quantity / depth; thereby blocking a guy like Cowan, Minten, Grebyonkin or Steeves from coming in and becoming meaningful contributors.

Heck, look no further than Nick Robertson, who at countless times throughout the the past 3 seasons has looked like he at least deserves an opportunity to establish himself, yet constantly fell victim of the fact that he was waiver exempt.

Really really great points. Nothing to disagree with here. I’ve been watching the Marlies we have some players who it given opportunity may be able to contribute. Greb and Steeves jump out to me. If Holmberg wasn’t waiver eligible it would be a no brainer to send him down and call one of those two up and see what they can give us.

But I do feel one aspect that we are missing is having some of those guys not coming up and being contibutors. You combine that with the fact that our stars do not out perform their contracts and it’s just a bad situation.

 

[Fogelhund]

Despite all the time in the past when you've resorted to insults and personal attacks, I thought I'd give you another chance to show you can exchange thoughts like an adult. Yes, it turns out that it was a waste of time but that's OK, I believe in giving people a second chance, sometimes even a third.

Since this gentleman can't answer my question, I'll throw it out to anyone and everyone:

Over Marner's career, the pattern is well established. For the first 86 games of the season (82 regular season games + the first 4 playoff games) he produces are roughly a 100 point pace. After that 86th game when the hitting gets harder, the checking gets tighter and he has less time and space to operate than he's used to, it's like a switch is flipped and his production drops to roughly a 40 point pace.

From 100 point pace to a 40 point pace, that's quite the drop. Do you have any idea what the reason for this drop could possibly be? Here are what I see as the options:

1 - it's a mental thing, something in his head is holding him back
2 - his game is not suited for tight checking playoff hockey
3 - some other reason that I can't think of

I'll say right off that I don't know the answer, I can't say I've seen anything like it in the 50+ years I've been watching hockey but my best guess at this point is option #2.

It's a mental thing, especially now. I think he cares too much, and tightens up, then his game goes to crap. Being a Toronto kid, there is immense pressure he puts on himself to have playoff success.

 

[francis246]

It's a mental thing, especially now. I think he cares too much, and tightens up, then his game goes to crap. Being a Toronto kid, there is immense pressure he puts on himself to have playoff success.

This has also been repeated by Brad Treliving. And we saw Kyle and Sheldon talk about it in the Amazon doc. He puts way too much pressure on himself. They have to find a way to get him to relieve that pressure.

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

Unfortunately, all of the core four could put up 110 points and I could care less if they only win 3-5 playoff games. That result is unacceptable someone needs to take responsibility from the core. It arguably should've been Nylander but he actually does elevate his game in big moments.

Results need to matter at this level. We can look at mouth watering stats all day but without winning, it can't be allowed to continue.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Such a dumb take to think that things are all loosey goosey right up until game 4 of the playoffs and only then do teams kick it up lol
What a job of fitting a narrative to a small sample size that was accumulated in losing efforts.
Repeated ad nauseam

Apparently players don't try for the whole regular season, and players don't try for the majority of playoff series, but if the team they're on isn't knocked out in those first 4 games, then they start trying. Heck, nobody even tries in elimination game 4s. That's why we don't count Marner's 5 points in those 2 games. No other reason.

The funniest part is, the only thing it actually represents is an outlier IPP in a tiny sample. The underlying play remains the same. Goals still get scored and goals against still get prevented when he's on the ice. He's just gotten abnormally low point credit in a tiny sample.

 

[Antropovsky]

Lmfao we’re still using the domi limited sample size to try and claim Marner makes Matthews worse? Jesus Christ. This is a bigger reach than Burke moving up to take Tyler Biggs.

I think there is sufficient evidence to prove that splitting up Matthews and Marner could be both beneficial and effective for the team but you intentionally using a limited sample size to try and hammer that Matthews is less effective with Marner is not only a strawman, but it’s a hasty generalization and hence why people including myself feel like you are nothing but a hater.

You take small pieces of data, mostly with limited sample sizes and make considerable overgeneralizations to make sweeping claims.

Lol talk about a hypocritical post. My data is back to 2017 and includes multiple players.. yet you focus on Domi? But don't comment on the main point? You thinknits coincidental that the data is consistent since 2017?

The main point:
To produce 5v5 points, a line needs to score 5v5 goals. Nobody scores 5v5 goals better than Matthews. He literally led the league in 5v5 goals/60 in his first two years, which is astounding. Of course his line benefits from it, as shown by Kapanens stats whom played 1000 5v5 mins and about 50% with Matthews and without and obviously there was a significant chanhe in his 5v5 points. As you can see, Matthews doesnt need Marner to lead the NHL in 5v5 goals.

So jump up and down all you want and point to Marners 5v5 production. The point is that, as shown with his production with Tavares last year vs with Matthews... Marner 5v5 points were significantly impacted by playing with Matthews, as is every player that plays with Matthews since he entered the league. Matthews however actually became SIGNIFICANTLY more productive as a goal scorer 5v5 without Marner. Sorry that's what the data shows. I didn't make the data up.

 

[IPS]

Excellent post. Last year was the time to trade Marner when the window was open, but Shanahan didnt use it and painted himself into a bad corner by giving up all negotiating power.

Dubas really got taken to the cleaners in that deal by Ferris. The nmc in the final year was a genius move on Ferris' part and a very foolish condition for Dubas to agree to.

Rantanen signing for $9.25M not even 2 weeks after Mitch signed was legitimately one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen from an organization. Still to this day can barely believe just how bad Dubas got hustled by Ferris.

 

[francis246]

Rantanen signing for $9.25M not even 2 weeks after Mitch signed was legitimately one of the most pathetic things I've ever seen from an organization. Still to this day can barely believe just how bad Dubas got hustled by Ferris.

He got swindled for sure. I’ve claimed to this day. The bonuses missed were repayed in his AAV. That is the only logical explanation for allowing yourself to get bent like he did. I maintain to this day that Lou in hindsight should have given the bonuses for multiple reasons. One it would have forced him to not keep at least one of Bozak or JVR as an own rental because Marner probably hits and we have cap overages. Hell it might have even prevented us from signing Marleau. Additionally I really believe it would have helped to keep Marner at 9 or under.

It’s a small thing but when you look in hindsight it has been a major cause of so many issues that were avoidable. It was a dumb hill to die on.

 

[thewave]

He got swindled for sure. I’ve claimed to this day. The bonuses missed were repayed in his AAV. That is the only logical explanation for allowing yourself to get bent like he did. I maintain to this day that Lou in hindsight should have given the bonuses for multiple reasons. One it would have forced him to not keep at least one of Bozak or JVR as an own rental because Marner probably hits and we have cap overages. Hell it might have even prevented us from signing Marleau. Additionally I really believe it would have helped to keep Marner at 9 or under.

It’s a small thing but when you look in hindsight it has been a major cause of so many issues that were avoidable. It was a dumb hill to die on.

I don't think the lost bonuses amounted to the overpay. Did Rantanen have the additional bonuses?

 

[francis246]

I don't think the lost bonuses amounted to the overpay. Did Rantanen have the additional bonuses?

Yes Rantanen received his I believe.

I believe it was mentioned as one of the reasons why they went so hard in his post ELC. 1. He compared himself to Tavares, Matthews and Eichel, 2. Was upset about the schedule B bonus and 3. Organizations treatment of him under Babcock.

I won’t say it’s a major reason, however I do feel it is a part of the reason why the ask was considerable. He lost some money on his ELC, anyone would be pissed. I do remember seeing multiple articles were Marner’s camp was really pissed about the schedule B bonuses and that he compared himself to Matthews.