Player Discussion Marner

[thewave]

No, that is not at all what it is.

In hockey the dynamics of the game change quite a lot throughout the course of a game. If a team jumps out to a 2-0 lead, they're likely to settle into a more strict defensive game and limit offensive chances for their star players. And some of those players on crappy teams who get loads of ice can honestly benefit a player more than a better team that wins more. Ovechkin put the capitals on his back in 2007-2008 and got them to a playoff spot they had no business being in thanks to the ice-time situation he had. He wasn't just going and topping 65 goals more in his career cause Backstrom broke out and the Caps got good. His goals/points stayed around the same range for his prime. And there's many, many examples of this. All of the variables a hockey game can experience makes P/60 stats flawed by design.

You cannot possibly include all the variables to make P/60 an accurate stat. Look at your own list you provided, your subtle little shot at Nylander highlighting him at the end there with all the players in front of him: Bunting, Skinner, Kyrou, Thomas, etc... You're well aware of how wildly inaccurate it gets. So back to my initial question: what precisely are we supposed to deduce from your list? It's literally nothing more than the commonly known top players in the game just shuffled around a bunch of random spots.

He is trying to use deception to argue his point. Essentially not debating the facts in good faith and probably should be ignored on this topic.

When the results arent there, they arent there. Mitch Marner is not a top 10 forward in the NHL and is not deserving of that sort of pay. He is certainly a good player but in certain circumstances ie. High pressure playoff elimination games, he has been unable to perform at a high level.

The teams decision will be

A) We overpay(OP) this player
B) We offer him the Nylander contract OP
C) Turn him loose or attempt trade.

 

[IPS]

The fact is in the last 3 seasons Marner was 7th in 5v5 points and 3rd if you isolate by ice times.
Does he play with some great players yeah, but so do most of the top guys.

I don't wanna pivot to the other discussion i wasn't apart of.

I wanna finish discussing this one. How specifically are you supposed to take into account all the variables that could influence a player's 5v5 production?
Where would playing with the consensus best 5v5 goal scorer in the world rank on your list of variables that influence a player's production? I called out your list being total bunk and I haven't really seen anything prominent to back it up yet.

He is trying to use deception to argue his point. Essentially not debating the facts in good faith and probably should be ignored on this topic.

When the results arent there, they arent there. Mitch Marner is not a top 10 forward in the NHL and is not deserving of that sort of pay. He is certainly a good player but in certain circumstances ie. High pressure playoff elimination games, he has been unable to perform at a high level.

The teams decision will be

A) We overpay(OP) this player
B) We offer him the Nylander contract OP
C) Turn him loose or attempt trade.

I just don't know how you shuffle around all these dumbass stats and arrogantly parade them around while completely pretending the team hasn't utterly shit the bed literally every single year in the playoffs.

When does this dominant 5v5 play actually kick in come playoff time when it's needed? Like wtf am I supposed to care about Marner's adjusted 5v5 production when he produces 3 points in 7 games against Boston?

 

[thewave]

I don't wanna pivot to the other discussion i wasn't apart of.

I wanna finish discussing this one. How specifically are you supposed to take into account all the variables that could influence a player's 5v5 production?
Where would playing with the consensus best 5v5 goal scorer in the world rank on your list of variables that influence a player's production? I called out your list being total bunk and I haven't really seen anything prominent to back it up yet.


I just don't know how you shuffle around all these dumbass stats and arrogantly parade them around while completely pretending the team hasn't utterly shit the bed literally every single year in the playoffs.

When does this dominant 5v5 play actually kick in come playoff time when it's needed? Like wtf am I supposed to care about Marner's adjusted 5v5 production when he produces 3 points in 7 games against Boston?

Just going to throw this out there. Not going to get in the mix but thought I would include what AI says.

NHL Top 10 Forwards 2024
Based on the provided search results, here is a concise answer to the query “top 10 forward NHL 2024”:


Top 10 Forwards in the NHL for the 2024-25 Season
Connor McDavid (EDM) - High Noon ranking: 10.8
Nathan MacKinnon (COL) - High Noon ranking: 10.5
Nikita Kucherov (TBL) - High Noon ranking: 10.3
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) - High Noon ranking: 10.2
Artemi Panarin (NYR) - High Noon ranking: 10.1
Mikko Rantanen (COL) - High Noon ranking: 9.9
Auston Matthews (TOR) - High Noon ranking: 9.8 (INJ.)
Brady Tkachuk (OTT) - High Noon ranking: 9.7
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN) - High Noon ranking: 9.6
Matthew Tkachuk (FLA) - High Noon ranking: 9.5

Note that these rankings are based on the High Noon system, which considers factors such as past production, line combinations, injury history, age, contract status, and overall upside for the 2024-25 season. The rankings may vary depending on the source and methodology used.

 

[Gary Nylund]

William has also knocked on the 100 point season door as well as putting up back to back 40 goal seasons. Consensus seems to be goals are worth more. Sure Mitch is better defensively but it’s an uphill battle for him to get William money. I think he’d be splitting hairs to try and justify the same and moving isn’t worth a 3 or 4 % raise somewhere else.

But Marner should get way more than Nylander because he kills penalties.

No, they just get less points. After all it's a team game.
The big issue is that our PP has been really bad for quite a while now so our stars don't look as impressive when you look at raw point totals.

And who do we blame for that, Dubas?

 

[666]

I don't wanna pivot to the other discussion i wasn't apart of.

I wanna finish discussing this one. How specifically are you supposed to take into account all the variables that could influence a player's 5v5 production?
Where would playing with the consensus best 5v5 goal scorer in the world rank on your list of variables that influence a player's production? I called out your list being total bunk and I haven't really seen anything prominent to back it up yet.

You can't measure hockey. There are infinite variables. Period. But we can see some statistical trends over time with enough data.

Of course Marner benefits from playing with Matthews as Matthews benefits playing with Marner and Drai benefits from playing with McDavid and Rantanen benefits from playing with MacKinnon.

I've shown the numbers many times. When Nylander and Matthews play together they score about as much and get scored on about as much as when Marner plays with Matthews. BUT when Marner plays with JT it's about the same as when he plays with Matthews but Nylander and JT is a disaster.

Marners and Matthews statistics in the regular season are ALWAYS amazing because they are superstars.
Nylander is only amazing with Matthews and JT is only amazing with Marner.

This should be very obvious to you watching the games.

But Marner should get way more than Nylander because he kills penalties.

And who do we blame for that, Dubas?

You really need to ask? The coaching staff and all the players that play on it. Yikes.

 

[francis246]

It's pretty obvious what you're trying to do: you cherry picked some isolated and modified stats that makes Marner look a lot better than he actually is at 5v5. He's great, but 3rd best in the league? Not buying it. And what if we add in some other factors? Like his most common linemate being the consensus best 5v5 goal scorer in the league and probably one of the best ES goal scorers in the history of the game.

And the EDM PP being one of the best at all time. Why is that? Once again what is with this trying to separate PP's and star players as different entities? It doesn't work like that at all. The EDM PP is one of the best of all time BECAUSE McDavid and Drai are just that damn good at it. The PP happens to be something our star players struggle at - hence the blatant PP struggles we've had (especially in the postseason, specifically last year where they went 1/23)


The numbers can be spun and shuffled however they may be.

There is no better player in the league at 5v5 than McDavid. Cannot be argued. Don't care whatever P/60 or whatever stats try to say otherwise. There's just some things that stats can't quantify. I really don't care for bunk lists trying to drive agendas to fluff up players into something they're simply not. Michael Bunting is not a better 5v5 player than Nylander either, that's just pure stupidity.


Inb4 "yOuRe JuSt A mISeRaBlE HatEr BrO"

Why would I think you’re a hater cause of that? There’s only one Marner hater.

Just letting you know EV points are not the same as raw 5 v 5 points. So your point doesn’t really apply when using EV points. If you want to claim McDavid is the best 5 on 5 or whatever you have to use 5 on 5 stats. Has nothing to do with p/60. Raw 5 v 5 stats are tracked and available, it’s not even an advanced stat. It’s pretty well known Edmonton thrives off the PP. I do agree McDavid is one of the best in general, but EDM has a very successful power play that supplies a lot of points and I don’t consider that a downfall either. Being effective at a part of the game shouldn’t be used as a knock against you.

 

[GoonieFace]

Michael Bunting is on that list, so that pretty much discredits everything

 

[Gary Nylund]

The big issue is that our PP has been really bad for quite a while now so our stars don't look as impressive when you look at raw point totals.

And who do we blame for that, Dubas?

You really need to ask? The coaching staff and all the players that play on it. Yikes.

So our stars don't look as impressive because they're not all that impressive. Good to be on the same page for once.

 

[666]

So our stars don't look as impressive because they're not all that impressive. Good to be on the same page for once.

So now you hate Matthews too? Yikes.

 

[TMLAM34]

Marner has looked a lot better and more himself since Matthews has gone down with an injury. The two of them need to be separated when both are healthy and in the lineup. They are paid to drive their own lines, not play together. They also never keep the game simple when on the same line, they try to be too cute and find the perfect pass to one another. Neither are physical either and are pretty easy to control 5on5 by keeping them on the outside.

 

[Gary Nylund]

So now you hate Matthews too? Yikes.

LOL. Is that what you do, hate professional athletes that you've never met? Get a grip and stop projecting dude, it's only hockey.

 

[666]

LOL. Is that what you do, hate professional athletes that you've never met? Get a grip and stop projecting dude, it's only hockey.

Only a hater would be unimpressed with Matthews. But you're the guy that complained when he wasn't getting enough assists on the way to 69 goals. So there's that.

 

[Evilhomer]

The teams decision will be

A) We overpay(OP) this player
B) We offer him the Nylander contract OP
C) Turn him loose or attempt trade.

I think you can simplify this even further. If the Leafs offer (B) and Marner turns it down, you are really only left with (A), because there is no evidence to suggest that this management team would be willing to entertain the risk associated with option (C).

 

[Gary Nylund]

Only a hater would be unimpressed with Matthews. But you're the guy that complained when he wasn't getting enough assists on the way to 69 goals. So there's that.

You seem to love mindlessly tossing around the "hate" word, why is that? It's just hockey dude, get a grip.

And BTW, this thread's about Marner, why are you changing the subject to Matthews? There's a Matthews thread, go over there if you want to whine about him.

I think you can simplify this even further. If the Leafs offer (B) and Marner turns it down, you are really only left with (A), because there is no evidence to suggest that this management team would be willing to entertain the risk associated with option (C).

I believe this is the correct scenario. A/C are the only options, and I agree that management will likely fold and go with option A. What a nightmare!

 

[666]

And BTW, this thread's about Marner, why are you changing the subject to Matthews? There's a Matthews thread, go over there if you want to whine about him.

So our stars don't look as impressive because they're not all that impressive.

You're the one that said that our stars aren't impressive and Matthews is one of our stars. Don't say dumb things if you don't want them repeated.

 

[Evilhomer]

I believe this is the correct scenario. A/C are the only options, and I agree that management will likely fold and go with option A. What a nightmare!

It just seems like a story that is playing out exactly as most expected. Marner has gone on a hot streak, the team will start piling up wins, and management will have an easy out to justify signing him to a massive contract while 99% of the fan base cheers on. No different than the Nylander situation. It may end up being a great decision or a terrible decision, but I'm not sure it matters. I don't think there is any other realistic outcome.

 

[Gary Nylund]

You're the one that said that our stars aren't impressive and Matthews is one of our stars. Don't say dumb things if you don't want them repeated.

No, they just get less points. After all it's a team game.
The big issue is that our PP has been really bad for quite a while now so our stars don't look as impressive when you look at raw point totals.

Your words, not mine.

The PP has been awful, so I of course the players on the PP have not been impressive in that regard. I was agreeing with you on that particular point and your response was to go off the deep end with your "Only a hater would be unimpressed with Matthews" comment which makes no sense whatsoever. It seems like you're trying so hard to pick a fight with everyone, why do you keep fishing for conflict?

Overall, Matthews is very impressive, guy's won the Hart, the Lindsay, multiple Rockets and he's been our best player for years. If you don't agree with me then that's fine, you're free to think whatever you like.

It just seems like a story that is playing out exactly as most expected. Marner has gone on a hot streak, the team will start piling up wins, and management will have an easy out to justify signing him to a massive contract while 99% of the fan base cheers on. No different than the Nylander situation. It may end up being a great decision or a terrible decision, but I'm not sure it matters. I don't think there is any other realistic outcome.

The Nylander situation was a bit different, he was in the middle of having his best season ever (for I think the 3rd year in a row?) while Marner is always good during the regular season. But I doubt that's a distinction that management will make, they'll probably sign Marner though I really hope I'm wrong. We're definitely on the same page here, no doubt about it.

 

[666]

The PP has been awful, so I of course the players on the PP have not been impressive in that regard.

I've decided not to waste any more than 10 seconds on any response to you so I have to type fas

 

[seanlinden]

It just seems like a story that is playing out exactly as most expected. Marner has gone on a hot streak, the team will start piling up wins, and management will have an easy out to justify signing him to a massive contract while 99% of the fan base cheers on. No different than the Nylander situation. It may end up being a great decision or a terrible decision, but I'm not sure it matters. I don't think there is any other realistic outcome.

Quoted for truth...

Honestly.... even Nylander's deal... at this stage in their careers, I'm not sure you can argue that Marner's better.

Yes, he puts up more points, but he scores a lot less goals. He doesn't really "drive" his own line, wheras Nylander does. Nylander's a threat to create a chance and bury it on his own. Marner isn't.

Sure, Marner's probably a smarter player, and much less likely to make a bonehead play at 15:00 of the second period against Columbus on a Tuesday night. He also kills penalties... but objectively, from a team construction standpoint, I think you should be asking yourself...

"Are these qualities important when talking about somebody that's going to be paid to be a premier offensive winger"? I'd argue that they're not. You're not going to "paste" Mitch Marner on Connor McDavid in a playoff series, and you're certainly not going to do so with William Nylander. The fact that you'd be a little more comfortable with Marner on the ice doesn't really matter.

At the end of the day, the Leafs have painted themselves into a real corner here...assuming a $92m cap next year, they're going to have $28 to $29m in space with 7 forwards, 5 defencemen, and 2 goalies.

Let's say you give $12m combined to Tavares and Knies... it leaves you with $17m remaining. Sure, it would be really nice to get a $7m defenceman and a $7m winger to replace Marner and fill out the roster... but where are those guys going to come from? The UFA pool is pretty sparse.

 

[Stephen]

Marner has looked a lot better and more himself since Matthews has gone down with an injury. The two of them need to be separated when both are healthy and in the lineup. They are paid to drive their own lines, not play together. They also never keep the game simple when on the same line, they try to be too cute and find the perfect pass to one another. Neither are physical either and are pretty easy to control 5on5 by keeping them on the outside.

They both seem better as standalone stars on their own line. I even like the Nylander Marner chemistry on the PP, and those two have never ever been tried in any combination even when talking about turning Nylander into a C.

 

[Antropovsky]

I'm starting to think that some people only watch the Leafs and only watch the offensive zone and have no clue what goes on anywhere else.

Dude, I'm glad that you're learning that you can't really measure hockey but you jumped into the middle of a conversation where the discussion was about points because that's all that the haters want to talk about and I responded to a guy who likes 5v5 stats until they show him he's wrong.

The fact is in the last 3 seasons Marner was 7th in 5v5 points and 3rd if you isolate by ice times.
Does he play with some great players yeah, but so do most of the top guys.

But c'mon. We're talking about the regular season here. Marner is obviously a superstar. Just watch him play. The conversation you jumped into was talking about points but we CAN'T really measure defence. And if there is one thing that is very clear by just watching is that Marner and Matthews are elite defensively and Nylander is a disaster. I could and have shown it with the best numbers that we have but you'll just ignore them. Just watch the game in the defensive zone and watch Marners magic.

Easy stop focusing ONLY on points.

Do you understand that Marner is an elite playmaker.
Do you understand that Marner is an elite defensive player?
Why do you think that Marner is always on when the game is at stake?
Why do you think his teammates constantly look to give him the puck?
Why do you think he touches the puck so often every game?
Are you more knowledgeable than than people that do this for a living?
What do you know that that pros don't know?
Why is Marner always matched up against the best?
Have you ever even watched the defensive zone?
I think it might be you who knows nothing about hockey because you appear to be an offensive zone puck watcher and nothing more.
BUT if all you care about is points. Then I will post this for you AGAIN because you haters like to ignore things.

Last 3 seasons to get the samples up but avoid the Covid years 5v5 points / 60
to allow for injuries and unequal playing time:

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Total Points/60
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	218	3610.2	16.6	3.22
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	228	3562.4	15.6	3.01
Mitchell Marner	TOR	C, R	221	3205.1	14.5	2.98
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	238	3869.3	16.3	2.93
Matthew Tkachuk	CGY, FLA	L	241	3338.6	13.9	2.89
David Pastrnak	BOS	R	236	3383.1	14.3	2.87
Nikita Kucherov	T.B	R	210	3239.3	15.4	2.83
Jason Robertson	DAL	L	238	3451.4	14.5	2.63
Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG	L	189	2534.7	13.4	2.63
Artemi Panarin	NYR	L	239	3620.0	15.1	2.62
Jesper Bratt	N.J	L	240	3268.6	13.6	2.62
Jeff Skinner	BUF	L	233	3109.1	13.3	2.61
Filip Forsberg	NSH	L	201	2738.2	13.6	2.59
Vladimir Tarasenko	FLA, NYR, OTT, STL	R	220	2881.0	13.1	2.56
Sidney Crosby	PIT	C	233	3535.6	15.2	2.56
Tage Thompson	BUF	C, R	227	3064.5	13.5	2.55
Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	235	3259.0	13.9	2.54
Alex Tuch	BUF	R	199	2713.1	13.6	2.54
Nico Hischier	N.J	C	222	2983.4	13.4	2.53
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	241	3811.1	15.8	2.52
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	L	223	3393.0	15.2	2.51
Brayden Point	T.B	C	229	3379.2	14.8	2.49
Kevin Fiala	L.A, MIN	L	233	3121.7	13.4	2.48
Jack Hughes	N.J	C	189	2928.3	15.5	2.48
Aleksander Barkov	FLA	C	208	2724.7	13.1	2.47
Jordan Kyrou	STL	C	235	3304.9	14.1	2.47
Johnny Gaudreau	CBJ, CGY	L	243	3582.0	14.7	2.46
Robert Thomas	STL	C	227	3217.8	14.2	2.41
Nazem Kadri	CGY, COL	C	235	3205.7	13.6	2.40
Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	242	3279.6	13.6	2.40
Michael Bunting	CAR, PIT, TOR	L	242	3221.4	13.3	2.37
Steven Stamkos	T.B	C	241	3241.2	13.4	2.37
Brock Nelson	NYI	C	236	3239.8	13.7	2.37
Mikko Rantanen	COL	R	237	3898.4	16.4	2.35
William Nylander	TOR	C, R	245	3415.8	13.9	2.35

edit:
And to just hammer it home here is actual total points instead of /60:

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	Total Points
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	218​	3610.2​	194​
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	238​	3869.333​	189​
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	228​	3562.35​	179​
David Pastrnak	BOS	R	236​	3383.05​	162​
Matthew Tkachuk	CGY, FLA	L	241​	3338.55​	161​
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	241​	3811.133​	160​
Mitchell Marner	TOR	C, R	221​	3205.05​	159​

What I do know is that in order to produce 5v5 points you need a great 5v5 scorer. Matthews is a generational 5v5 goal scorer. To put how good of a 5v5 goal scorer he is into perspective - in his rookie season he led the entire league in 5v5 g/60 with 1.55 g/60, Ovexhkin had 1.37 g/60 that year 5v5. Matthews stats show he is an incredible 5v5 scorer with or without Marner. It literally doesnt seem to matter very much who is on his line. Kapanen, Marleau, Johnsson, Marner or Domi...hes an elite 5v5 goal scorer. And stats indicate his linemates 5v5 stats are rewarded BIG TIME for playing with him:

Matthews 5v5 goals:

How does this effect his linemates? Let me give you an example.

2019 Kapanen 5v5:
With Matthews: 2.31 p/60
Without Matthews: 1.4 p/60

2024 Domi 5v5:
With Matthews: 3.77 p/60
Without Matthews: 2.46 p/60

2024 Marner 5v5:
W/Tavares - 2.4 p/60 =28th in league
W/Matthews - 3.0 p/60 = 3rd in league

 

[Gabriel426]

Quoted for truth...

Honestly.... even Nylander's deal... at this stage in their careers, I'm not sure you can argue that Marner's better.

Yes, he puts up more points, but he scores a lot less goals. He doesn't really "drive" his own line, wheras Nylander does. Nylander's a threat to create a chance and bury it on his own. Marner isn't.

Sure, Marner's probably a smarter player, and much less likely to make a bonehead play at 15:00 of the second period against Columbus on a Tuesday night. He also kills penalties... but objectively, from a team construction standpoint, I think you should be asking yourself...

"Are these qualities important when talking about somebody that's going to be paid to be a premier offensive winger"? I'd argue that they're not. You're not going to "paste" Mitch Marner on Connor McDavid in a playoff series, and you're certainly not going to do so with William Nylander. The fact that you'd be a little more comfortable with Marner on the ice doesn't really matter.

At the end of the day, the Leafs have painted themselves into a real corner here...assuming a $92m cap next year, they're going to have $28 to $29m in space with 7 forwards, 5 defencemen, and 2 goalies.

Let's say you give $12m combined to Tavares and Knies... it leaves you with $17m remaining. Sure, it would be really nice to get a $7m defenceman and a $7m winger to replace Marner and fill out the roster... but where are those guys going to come from? The UFA pool is pretty sparse.

Lets bring all of them back and enjoy ONE round of playoffs.

I just don't think Leafs should commit to JT and MM until after the playoffs.
The D and Goalies are set and all those contracts are moveable to certain extend.

The only team that made it to the Finals and Won with TWO 10mil plus players is the Panthers and one of them is a goalie.

Ever since the first 10mil plus player, Only Five teams with 10Mil plus players made it to the Finals and Two of those teams won the Cup. And only ONE team with a 11mil plus player made it to the Finals. Leafs been a team with THREE 10mil plus players and yet only managed to win ONE round, just don't see how having THREE 11mil plus players will actually help the Leafs win the Cup.

 

[francis246]

What I do know is that in order to produce 5v5 points you need a great 5v5 scorer. Matthews is a generational 5v5 goal scorer. To put how good of a 5v5 goal scorer he is into perspective - in his rookie season he led the entire league in 5v5 g/60 with 1.55 g/60, Ovexhkin had 1.37 g/60 that year 5v5. Matthews stats show he is an incredible 5v5 scorer with or without Marner. It literally doesnt seem to matter very much who is on his line. Kapanen, Marleau, Johnsson, Marner or Domi...hes an elite 5v5 goal scorer. And stats indicate his linemates 5v5 stats are rewarded BIG TIME for playing with him:

Matthews 5v5 goals:

View attachment 929478

How does this effect his linemates? Let me give you an example.

2019 Kapanen 5v5:
With Matthews: 2.31 p/60
Without Matthews: 1.4 p/60

2024 Domi 5v5:
With Matthews: 3.77 p/60
Without Matthews: 2.46 p/60

2024 Marner 5v5:
W/Tavares - 2.4 p/60 =28th in league
W/Matthews - 3.0 p/60 = 3rd in league

Lmfao we’re still using the domi limited sample size to try and claim Marner makes Matthews worse? Jesus Christ. This is a bigger reach than Burke moving up to take Tyler Biggs.

I think there is sufficient evidence to prove that splitting up Matthews and Marner could be both beneficial and effective for the team but you intentionally using a limited sample size to try and hammer that Matthews is less effective with Marner is not only a strawman, but it’s a hasty generalization and hence why people including myself feel like you are nothing but a hater.

You take small pieces of data, mostly with limited sample sizes and make considerable overgeneralizations to make sweeping claims.

 

[francis246]

Quoted for truth...

Honestly.... even Nylander's deal... at this stage in their careers, I'm not sure you can argue that Marner's better.

Yes, he puts up more points, but he scores a lot less goals. He doesn't really "drive" his own line, wheras Nylander does. Nylander's a threat to create a chance and bury it on his own. Marner isn't.

Sure, Marner's probably a smarter player, and much less likely to make a bonehead play at 15:00 of the second period against Columbus on a Tuesday night. He also kills penalties... but objectively, from a team construction standpoint, I think you should be asking yourself...

"Are these qualities important when talking about somebody that's going to be paid to be a premier offensive winger"? I'd argue that they're not. You're not going to "paste" Mitch Marner on Connor McDavid in a playoff series, and you're certainly not going to do so with William Nylander. The fact that you'd be a little more comfortable with Marner on the ice doesn't really matter.

At the end of the day, the Leafs have painted themselves into a real corner here...assuming a $92m cap next year, they're going to have $28 to $29m in space with 7 forwards, 5 defencemen, and 2 goalies.

Let's say you give $12m combined to Tavares and Knies... it leaves you with $17m remaining. Sure, it would be really nice to get a $7m defenceman and a $7m winger to replace Marner and fill out the roster... but where are those guys going to come from? The UFA pool is pretty sparse.

I’ve mentioned this before but you need ELC guys to step up. Go look at every cup team. They have guys who have graduated from the AHL to the NHL and are big time contributors. You want to talk about what Toronto is missing and it’s exactly that. Who is going to be Toronto’s Robert Thomas/Kyrou? Who’s going to be Toronto’s Palat/Killorn? Who’s going to be Toronto’s Mason Lohrei? Or Torontos Logan Stankovan? Or Torontos Nils Hoglander or Torontos Dylan Holloway. We need to graduate quality young players.

Toronto is in a phase we’re not every cap dollar needs to be spent in UFA. Accrue the cap space for a future trade transaction.

 

[Gabriel426]

I’ve mentioned this before but you need ELC guys to step up. Go look at every cup team. They have guys who have graduated from the AHL to the NHL and are big time contributors. You want to talk about what Toronto is missing and it’s exactly that. Who is going to be Toronto’s Robert Thomas/Kyrou? Who’s going to be Toronto’s Palat/Killorn? Who’s going to be Toronto’s Mason Lohrei? Or Torontos Logan Stankovan? Or Torontos Nils Hoglander or Torontos Dylan Holloway. We need to graduate quality young players.

Toronto is in a phase we’re not every cap dollar needs to be spent in UFA. Accrue the cap space for a future trade transaction.

What you are essentially saying is players outperforming their contracts. Which is not an easy thing in TO since our top guys rarely if ever perform to their own contracts in playoffs.
AM constantly get outplayed by C like Coyle.
JT just not worth his contract.
MM is usually stuck in his own mind esp when the going gets tough.
Willie been outperforming his 7mil since the Habs series but he is still not worth 11.5mil with his playoffs performances.