Player Discussion Marner

[Gary Nylund]

I'm starting to think you may have been right all along on this. Should the playoffs go well I could see a high 11's payout, brought down to 11 with deferred bonuses. A balance of saving face and securing a palatable AAV. Might depend on any free agency back channeling.

I'd note that we shouldn't assume this new trick is a given, as it's actually disadvantageous for the player.

I'd love to be wrong on this, but I'm quite sure that Marner will refuse any contract that does not pay him more than Nylander.

 

[LeafEgo]

I'd love to be wrong on this, but I'm quite sure that Marner will refuse any contract that does not pay him more than Nylander.

That would be his preference no doubt and Gross is an animal but the Leafs have things that Marner wants as well. We have adults in the room now, we may see proper negotiation. Hopefully anyways, who knows how it will shake out.

 

[notDatsyuk]

If the time you're playing against bad matchup raise but your stats still drop a little bit, Can you consider your game still at the same level?

Can your weird stats show that he plays against better matchups in the regular season? Otherwise your whole 'argument' about bad matchups doesn't make any sense.

 

[Confucius]

I'd love to be wrong on this, but I'm quite sure that Marner will refuse any contract that does not pay him more than Nylander.

William has also knocked on the 100 point season door as well as putting up back to back 40 goal seasons. Consensus seems to be goals are worth more. Sure Mitch is better defensively but it’s an uphill battle for him to get William money. I think he’d be splitting hairs to try and justify the same and moving isn’t worth a 3 or 4 % raise somewhere else.

 

[TMLBlueandWhite]

To he honest I can't blame Marner, or anyone else, for asking for as much money from their employer as possible.

I had my annual review this morning and at the end I asked how much of a raise I was getting. My boss actually had the nerve to ask me why I thought I deserved one. I simply reminded him I had a knife pulled on me and revived four people from overdose last year.

Go ahead and find someone else.

When you're the best at your job you get what you want. And Marner really is one of the best wingers in the game. So I fully expect his bank account to be stuffed full again this summer.

And there is zero doubt in my mind it will be the Toronto Maple Leafs paying him.

Marner can ask for the moon and sun and all the stars in the sky. The Leafs either pony up or find someone else. That's pretty much exactly what I told my boss this morning.

I got what I wanted and I expect Marner will too.

 

[leafs in five]

Half a decade later same old story

yup, remains one of the most productive players in the league

 

[Antropovsky]

yup, remains one of the most productive players in the league

Confused how a player unable to break 100 points has been worth the 11 million per year on his first RFA contract.

If he was actually worth that contract, than he should have been in the 120+ points, considering he was playing with another player making 11.5 on his first RFA contract - Matthews.

Can someone point out Marners comparables in terms of contract?

 

[leafs in five]

Confused how a player unable to break 100 points has been worth the 11 million per year on his first RFA contract.

you are confused

 

[Antropovsky]

you are confused

Lol...back to the childish personal attacks? Obviously because you know nothing about hockey. If you did you would gladly offer a rebuttal.

I'm shocked you've been on these boards as long as you have. Your age and acting like your 9?

 

[leafs in five]

Lol...back to the childish personal attacks? Obviously because you know nothing about hockey. If you did you would gladly offer a rebuttal.

I'm shocked you've been on these boards as long as you have. Your age and acting like your 9?

I didn't say anything about his contract so I figured maybe you had confused my post for one that said something like, he remains one of the best value-for-cap-hit players in the league. anyway please carry on conducting the Marner thread.

 

[666]

Confused how a player unable to break 100 points has been worth the 11 million per year on his first RFA contract.

Easy stop focusing ONLY on points.

Obviously because you know nothing about hockey.

Do you understand that Marner is an elite playmaker.
Do you understand that Marner is an elite defensive player?
Why do you think that Marner is always on when the game is at stake?
Why do you think his teammates constantly look to give him the puck?
Why do you think he touches the puck so often every game?
Are you more knowledgeable than than people that do this for a living?
What do you know that that pros don't know?
Why is Marner always matched up against the best?
Have you ever even watched the defensive zone?
I think it might be you who knows nothing about hockey because you appear to be an offensive zone puck watcher and nothing more.
BUT if all you care about is points. Then I will post this for you AGAIN because you haters like to ignore things.

Last 3 seasons to get the samples up but avoid the Covid years 5v5 points / 60
to allow for injuries and unequal playing time:

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	TOI/GP	Total Points/60
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	218	3610.2	16.6	3.22
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	228	3562.4	15.6	3.01
Mitchell Marner	TOR	C, R	221	3205.1	14.5	2.98
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	238	3869.3	16.3	2.93
Matthew Tkachuk	CGY, FLA	L	241	3338.6	13.9	2.89
David Pastrnak	BOS	R	236	3383.1	14.3	2.87
Nikita Kucherov	T.B	R	210	3239.3	15.4	2.83
Jason Robertson	DAL	L	238	3451.4	14.5	2.63
Nikolaj Ehlers	WPG	L	189	2534.7	13.4	2.63
Artemi Panarin	NYR	L	239	3620.0	15.1	2.62
Jesper Bratt	N.J	L	240	3268.6	13.6	2.62
Jeff Skinner	BUF	L	233	3109.1	13.3	2.61
Filip Forsberg	NSH	L	201	2738.2	13.6	2.59
Vladimir Tarasenko	FLA, NYR, OTT, STL	R	220	2881.0	13.1	2.56
Sidney Crosby	PIT	C	233	3535.6	15.2	2.56
Tage Thompson	BUF	C, R	227	3064.5	13.5	2.55
Carter Verhaeghe	FLA	C	235	3259.0	13.9	2.54
Alex Tuch	BUF	R	199	2713.1	13.6	2.54
Nico Hischier	N.J	C	222	2983.4	13.4	2.53
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	241	3811.1	15.8	2.52
Kirill Kaprizov	MIN	L	223	3393.0	15.2	2.51
Brayden Point	T.B	C	229	3379.2	14.8	2.49
Kevin Fiala	L.A, MIN	L	233	3121.7	13.4	2.48
Jack Hughes	N.J	C	189	2928.3	15.5	2.48
Aleksander Barkov	FLA	C	208	2724.7	13.1	2.47
Jordan Kyrou	STL	C	235	3304.9	14.1	2.47
Johnny Gaudreau	CBJ, CGY	L	243	3582.0	14.7	2.46
Robert Thomas	STL	C	227	3217.8	14.2	2.41
Nazem Kadri	CGY, COL	C	235	3205.7	13.6	2.40
Elias Pettersson	VAN	C	242	3279.6	13.6	2.40
Michael Bunting	CAR, PIT, TOR	L	242	3221.4	13.3	2.37
Steven Stamkos	T.B	C	241	3241.2	13.4	2.37
Brock Nelson	NYI	C	236	3239.8	13.7	2.37
Mikko Rantanen	COL	R	237	3898.4	16.4	2.35
William Nylander	TOR	C, R	245	3415.8	13.9	2.35

edit:
And to just hammer it home here is actual total points instead of /60:

Player	Team	Position	GP	TOI	Total Points
Nathan MacKinnon	COL	C	218​	3610.2​	194​
Connor McDavid	EDM	C	238​	3869.333​	189​
Auston Matthews	TOR	C	228​	3562.35​	179​
David Pastrnak	BOS	R	236​	3383.05​	162​
Matthew Tkachuk	CGY, FLA	L	241​	3338.55​	161​
Leon Draisaitl	EDM	C	241​	3811.133​	160​
Mitchell Marner	TOR	C, R	221​	3205.05​	159​

 

[IPS]

McDavid and Kucherov are worse offensive players at 5v5 than Marner eh?

Interesting stuff.

 

[thusk]

Can your weird stats show that he plays against better matchups in the regular season? Otherwise your whole 'argument' about bad matchups doesn't make any sense.

Would need to do it gm by gm for 82 game, don't have time to do it

 

[666]

McDavid and Kucherov are worse offensive players at 5v5 than Marner eh?

Interesting stuff.

No, they just get less points. After all it's a team game.
The big issue is that our PP has been really bad for quite a while now so our stars don't look as impressive when you look at raw point totals.

 

[ULF_55]

I'm surprised that Matthews isn't running away with the goal scoring on the team in the playoffs.

Plays with the best playmaker on the team, and Nylander is right there with him.

Just doesn't add up for someone who has been compensated more than 50% more.

 

[IPS]

No, they just get less points. After all it's a team game.
The big issue is that our PP has been really bad for quite a while now so our stars don't look as impressive when you look at raw point totals.

Doesn't appear at all that McDavid "gets less points" at 5v5. In fact he conquers them all. So why does that silly list have him behind 3 other guys when that's clearly not accurate at all? What precisely are we supposed to deduce from your list you provided? You can spin and shuffle some numbers around in regards to TOI, 4 on 4 situations, etc.. but at the end of the day are we genuinely supposed to believe that McDavid is a lesser player at 5 on 5 than anyone else around the league? No f***ing chance.

And regarding why the PP is bad - why is that? Can we presume that it's the players who are the problem why it's not doing what it should or is it just some mystical reason that can't be figured out? Marner/Matthews ARE the PP. They're not separate entities.

 

[666]

View attachment 929324


Doesn't appear at all that McDavid "gets less points" at 5v5. In fact he conquers them all. So why does that silly list have him behind 3 other guys when that's clearly not accurate at all? What precisely are we supposed to deduce from your list you provided?

And regarding why the PP is bad - why is that? Can we presume that it's the players who are the problem why it's not doing what it should or is it just some mystical reason that can't be figured out? Marner/Matthews ARE the PP. They're not separate entities.

Alway label a list like this as I didn't know what you were showing at first. What I showed was 5v5 points. It's customary to do it this way. The top of my post shows /60 numbers to allow for unequal playing time (things like injuries or more ice time per games etc). My bottom list shows all 5v5 points for that time period. You are showing ALL points at ALL strengths which shows how incredible guys like McDavid are when the other team isn't at full strength. The EDM PP is one of the best of all time but McDavid isn't as special 5v5 but that has a lot to do with his team and who he plays with.

 

[Maple Leaf]

All about the regular season trophies eh boys go leafs go

 

[francis246]

View attachment 929324


Doesn't appear at all that McDavid "gets less points" at 5v5. In fact he conquers them all. So why does that silly list have him behind 3 other guys when that's clearly not accurate at all? What precisely are we supposed to deduce from your list you provided? You can spin and shuffle some numbers around in regards to TOI, 4 on 4 situations, etc.. but at the end of the day are we genuinely supposed to believe that McDavid is a lesser player at 5 on 5 than anyone else around the league? No f***ing chance.

And regarding why the PP is bad - why is that? Can we presume that it's the players who are the problem why it's not doing what it should or is it just some mystical reason that can't be figured out? Marner/Matthews ARE the PP. They're not separate entities.

Even strength is not limited to 5 on 5. That could be 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 as well

 

[IPS]

Alway label a list like this as I didn't know what you were showing at first. What I showed was 5v5 points. It's customary to do it this way. The top of my post shows /60 numbers to allow for unequal playing time (things like injuries or more ice time per games etc). My bottom list shows all 5v5 points for that time period. You are showing ALL points at ALL strengths which shows how incredible guys like McDavid are when the other team isn't at full strength. The EDM PP is one of the best of all time.

It's pretty obvious what you're trying to do: you cherry picked some isolated and modified stats that makes Marner look a lot better than he actually is at 5v5. He's great, but 3rd best in the league? Not buying it. And what if we add in some other factors? Like his most common linemate being the consensus best 5v5 goal scorer in the league and probably one of the best ES goal scorers in the history of the game.

And the EDM PP being one of the best at all time. Why is that? Once again what is with this trying to separate PP's and star players as different entities? It doesn't work like that at all. The EDM PP is one of the best of all time BECAUSE McDavid and Drai are just that damn good at it. The PP happens to be something our star players struggle at - hence the blatant PP struggles we've had (especially in the postseason, specifically last year where they went 1/23)

Even strength is not limited to 5 on 5. That could be 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 as well

The numbers can be spun and shuffled however they may be.

There is no better player in the league at 5v5 than McDavid. Cannot be argued. Don't care whatever P/60 or whatever stats try to say otherwise. There's just some things that stats can't quantify. I really don't care for bunk lists trying to drive agendas to fluff up players into something they're simply not. Michael Bunting is not a better 5v5 player than Nylander either, that's just pure stupidity.


Inb4 "yOuRe JuSt A mISeRaBlE HatEr BrO"

 

[robertmac43]

He's been great as of late. Question is still and always will be, can he do it in April?

 

[666]

It's pretty obvious what you're trying to do: you cherry picked some isolated and modified stats that makes Marner look a lot better than he actually is at 5v5. He's great, but 3rd best in the league? Not buying it. And what if we add in some other factors? Like his most common linemate being the consensus best 5v5 goal scorer in the league and probably one of the best ES goal scorers in the history of the game.

And the EDM PP being one of the best at all time? Why is that? Once again what is with this trying to separate PP's and star players as different entities? It doesn't work like that at all. The EDM PP is one of the best of all time BECAUSE McDavid and Drai are just that damn good at it. The PP happens to be something our star players struggle at - hence the blatant PP struggles we've had (especially in the postseason, specifically last year where they went 1/23)

What are you talking about? These stats are they way it's always done. Some guys get injured some guys are on such crappy teams that they get ridiculous amounts of ice time. Some guys have competition on their team at their position (Marner / Nylander) so they sometimes share the ice time. All the P/60 numbers do is take the total 5v5 points and divide it by the time on ice. What's so hard to understand about it? Who produces more the guy with 160 points in 241 games (Drai) or the guy with 159 points in 221 games (Marner). Now sure, you can argue that one guy might be more fragile but injuries in general are pretty random. If we drop the /60 numbers then Marner is still 7th. Think man.

edit: of course linemates matter but most top players also play with top players.

As for the PP you're right. Kuch, McDavid and Drai excel at it and there is something terribly wrong with ours. But there are also some pretty amazing players who suffer on poor power plays for example Crosby last year had only had 23 PP points where Kuch had 53. Crosby only had 24% of his 94 points on the PP. Wanna guess who the next lowest is of the players above him? Matthews at 27%.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Even strength is not limited to 5 on 5. That could be 4 on 4 and 3 on 3 as well

Also goalie pulled and empty net situations.
I don't know why that guy is surprised that McDavid isn't some untouchable god 5v5. The PP is where he really makes his separation.

 

[IPS]

What are you talking about? These stats are they way it's always done. Some guys get injured some guys are on such crappy teams that they get ridiculous amounts of ice time. Some guys have competition on their team at their position (Marner / Nylander) so they sometimes share the ice time. All the P/60 numbers do is take the total 5v5 points and divide it by the time on ice. What's so hard to understand about it? Who produces more the guy with 160 points in 241 games or the guy with 159 points in 221 games. Now sure, you can argue that one guy might be more fragile but injuries in general are pretty random. Think man.

No, that is not at all what it is.

In hockey the dynamics of the game change quite a lot throughout the course of a game. If a team jumps out to a 2-0 lead, they're likely to settle into a more strict defensive game and limit offensive chances for their star players. And some of those players on crappy teams who get loads of ice can honestly benefit a player more than a better team that wins more. Ovechkin put the capitals on his back in 2007-2008 and got them to a playoff spot they had no business being in thanks to the ice-time situation he had. He wasn't just going and topping 65 goals more in his career cause Backstrom broke out and the Caps got good. His goals/points stayed around the same range for his prime. And there's many, many examples of this. All of the variables a hockey game can experience makes P/60 stats flawed by design.

You cannot possibly include all the variables to make P/60 an accurate stat. Look at your own list you provided, your subtle little shot at Nylander highlighting him at the end there with all the players in front of him: Bunting, Skinner, Kyrou, Thomas, etc... You're well aware of how wildly inaccurate it gets. So back to my initial question: what precisely are we supposed to deduce from your list? It's literally nothing more than the commonly known top players in the game just shuffled around a bunch of random spots.

 

[666]

Also goalie pulled and empty net situations.
I don't know why that guy is surprised that McDavid isn't some untouchable god 5v5. The PP is where he really makes his separation

I'm starting to think that some people only watch the Leafs and only watch the offensive zone and have no clue what goes on anywhere else.

No, that is not at all what it is.

In hockey the dynamics of the game change quite a lot throughout the course of a game. If a team jumps out to a 2-0 lead, they're likely to settle into a more strict defensive game and limit offensive chances for their star players. And some of those players on crappy teams who get loads of ice can honestly benefit a player more than a better team that wins more. Ovechkin put the capitals on his back in 2007-2008 and got them to a playoff spot they had no business being in thanks to the ice-time situation he had. He wasn't just going and topping 65 goals more in his career cause Backstrom broke out and the Caps got good. His goals/points stayed around the same range for his prime. And there's many, many examples of this. All of the variables a hockey game can experience makes P/60 stats flawed by design.

You cannot possibly include all the variables to make P/60 an accurate stat. Look at your own list you provided, your subtle little shot at Nylander highlighting him at the end there with all the players in front of him: Bunting, Skinner, Kyrou, Thomas, etc... You're well aware of how wildly inaccurate it gets.

Dude, I'm glad that you're learning that you can't really measure hockey but you jumped into the middle of a conversation where the discussion was about points because that's all that the haters want to talk about and I responded to a guy who likes 5v5 stats until they show him he's wrong.

The fact is in the last 3 seasons Marner was 7th in 5v5 points and 3rd if you isolate by ice times.
Does he play with some great players yeah, but so do most of the top guys.

But c'mon. We're talking about the regular season here. Marner is obviously a superstar. Just watch him play. The conversation you jumped into was talking about points but we CAN'T really measure defence. And if there is one thing that is very clear by just watching is that Marner and Matthews are elite defensively and Nylander is a disaster. I could and have shown it with the best numbers that we have but you'll just ignore them. Just watch the game in the defensive zone and watch Marners magic.