Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[hamzarocks]

Let's say Babcock had played Matthews with Tavares together starting in their rookie seasons, would Matthews totals be what Tavares had playing with Marner this season and what would Marner's total also look like? I know he tried them on the same line before the All Star Game and I think for 1 or 2 games after that, although it wasn't big enough a sample size to know for sure and I'm not including when they were on the #1 power play line this season.

Matthews hasn't played winger before at the NHL level, not sure how difficult the transition for him would become to switch positions. As a winger, his defensive responsibilities would change and he would be having to carry the puck up the zone more often(unless Tavares became more puck dominant like he was on the island). His production would surely change, but not as much as people anticipate. He would go from a 90ish point player to a 100ish point player(assuming he plays 82 games), and marner would see his production go down from a 95 point player to a 80ish point player(assuming marner got kadri as his center or nylander and not gauthier/marleau). I don't think Marner is a better player long term than AM34. I think he was better in 18/19 than him and can imagine a season or two where he ends up the best player again for us. I find it silly people are dismissing marners growth and ascension into stardom as being simply due to his opportunity to play with Tavares.

Marner was set to be a franchise-level winger the day he was drafted. The skill and effort this guy possess are unreal. He simply has the tools you want from your best winger. His position based on the setup of the NHL prohibits/restrict him from being recognized as valuable as a comparable elite center(though like everything there are exceptions to that such as kane, ovy, kuch, and now the rat). He is the type of guy you can build a team around and expect to be a yearly playoff team. He deserves to be put in a top elite tier of young players in the league who have the ability to be yearly top 10 players. At this moment based on what he has accomplished and what his closest comparisons say his value is 9.5 million on long term deal. Draisaitl is his perfect comparison and he got 11.33% of the cap, 9.5 works out to be 11.45% which is pretty fair as Marner was the better player in 2/3 of the ELC years. We can make arguments for why marner doesn't deserve to be asking for 10+ million(AM34 money which he didn't deserve eitheer) but we shouldn't breakdown/belittle the quality of player which marner has grown into for us.

 

[Stephen]

This.

The faster people forget about that contract the better. Pointing to contracts like that is like when people used to say "Why aren't our seventh round picks turning out like Detroits?"

It's like someone pointing at Morgan Rielly and trying to make a case Erik Karlsson should be looking at around $5 million. It's not going to work out like that.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matthews hasn't played winger before at the NHL level, not sure how difficult the transition for him would become to switch positions. As a winger, his defensive responsibilities would change and he would be having to carry the puck up the zone more often(unless Tavares became more puck dominant like he was on the island). His production would surely change, but not as much as people anticipate. He would go from a 90ish point player to a 100ish point player(assuming he plays 82 games), and marner would see his production go down from a 95 point player to a 80ish point player(assuming marner got kadri as his center or nylander and not gauthier/marleau). I don't think Marner is a better player long term than AM34. I think he was better in 18/19 than him and can imagine a season or two where he ends up the best player again for us. I find it silly people are dismissing marners growth and ascension into stardom as being simply due to his opportunity to play with Tavares.

Marner was set to be a franchise-level winger the day he was drafted. The skill and effort this guy possess are unreal. He simply has the tools you want from your best winger. His position based on the setup of the NHL prohibits/restrict him from being recognized as valuable as a comparable elite center(though like everything there are exceptions to that such as kane, ovy, kuch, and now the rat). He is the type of guy you can build a team around and expect to be a yearly playoff team. He deserves to be put in a top elite tier of young players in the league who have the ability to be yearly top 10 players. At this moment based on what he has accomplished and what his closest comparisons say his value is 9.5 million on long term deal. Draisaitl is his perfect comparison and he got 11.33% of the cap, 9.5 works out to be 11.45% which is pretty fair as Marner was the better player in 2/3 of the ELC years. We can make arguments for why marner doesn't deserve to be asking for 10+ million(AM34 money which he didn't deserve eitheer) but we shouldn't breakdown/belittle the quality of player which marner has grown into for us.

I meant if Matthews was at centre and Marner was on his wing. I never suggested that Matthews switch positions.

 

[kb]

5 more points than his career high, 5

Marner just had his best statistical season by a country mile playing with Tavares

So who's driving that line again? Seems to me there feeding off each other not one dudes driving the line for the other dude, I know you love Marner but jesus

It's insane. People are giving Marner waaaay too much credit for Tavares. Sure Tavares had more goals this year. But Tavares is a line driving machine and chameleon who does whatever it takes to make his linemates better. If Tavares has linemates who are shooters, he becomes a passer. This year he had a passer, so he became a shooter. And make no mistake, Tavares has done that his whole career. It's the mark of a truly elite player.

But playing with Marner did not raise his point totals significantly over the previous season. And this is a constant....since he entered the league, no one has had a significantly better statistical season playing with Marner than they did the preceding season before while playing without Marner.

Marner is being given waaaay too much credit for players doing what they would have done without him anyway.

We need to back up the hype train on this kid. He's a playmaking winger like Nylander, so let's use the same arguments for him not getting Matthews money please. Without a 9 goal in 7 game stretch, he's at his career norm of 20ish. Which is not worth 10 million in any league, for any reason......ESPECIALLY because he played with Tavares.

 

[hamzarocks]

If Crosby is a defensively suspect winger. Then ovechkin.

Comparing players purely on offence.

If player x scores 50 goals and 20 assists
That player is more valuable than a 20 goal 50’assist player.

It’s just how it is. At the end Of the day they count goals. Not assists.

I'm sorry but I don't understand why that is the case. 70 points are 70 points from a pure statistical POV. If you look closer into their stats you can find usage, quality of linemates, scoring chances created (for both themselves and their linemates), injury impacts, style of play as opposed to style their linemates play. There are so many aspects to looking into and evaluating players Does not make sense for goals to be the be all end all stat. That is just my opinion and I understand a lot of people would rather the 50 goal winger/center over the 50 assist center/winger.

 

[hamzarocks]

I meant if Matthews was at centre and Marner was on his wing. I never suggested that Matthews switch positions.

I honestly don't see much difference in either Marner or Matthews stats if they played together. Both are 90-95 point players just in different ways. Tavares would have to adjust and play a different role but he has shown he can play with a wide variety of wingers and be a great play maker. If nylander returns to form than I would rather see a 16-34 combo and 91-29 combo at least to start the year to see how the impact these 4 guys have changed when we give them consistent minutes playing with high-end talent that thye have little prior minutes playing with.

 

[Stephen]

I just want consistency.

When I said Nylander deserves less than Pastrnak (20 goal/60 Point career high vs 34/70) I was told over and over and over again that Pastrnak isn’t paid as a 34/70 player because he only did it once during his elc, compared to Nylander doing 60 points twice.

Now many of those VERY same leaf fans are saying the precise opposite when it comes to Rantanen vs Marner.

My criticism is that the metrics they use to measure a players worth changes from leaf player to leaf player. It’s all just a rationalization to defend Dubas and the contracts he's giving out.

I paid attention very VERY carefully at the rationalizations leaf fans used to defend Nylander making as much as Pastrnak. Now I’m just using those very arguments back against them in regards to Marner, and it drives them insane. They are not showing even an attempt at consistency. All the metrics change for them when it’s a LEAF player.

The "lack of consistency" you are arguing is actually due to the fact that you are literally arguing with hundreds, if not thousands of other Leafs fans on an issue in which you are basically alone in your outrage.

The Bruins got a very competitive deal on David Pastrnak. When he signed it, they bet on him exceeding what they invested and his performance to date has proved to be a great deal. The Leafs paid a little bit more for Nylander, and for a number of reasons he's fallen short of meeting those numbers in his first year. But he's signed to six years, so over time, there's still the very real chance his performance will match and then become a good deal. That's the investment.

In terms of Marner vs Rantanen and how much Marner is overpaid compared to Rantanen's imaginary contract, we should probably let things play out before being outraged.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I honestly don't see much difference in either Marner or Matthews stats if they played together. Both are 90-95 point players just in different ways. Tavares would have to adjust and play a different role but he has shown he can play with a wide variety of wingers and be a great play maker. If nylander returns to form than I would rather see a 16-34 combo and 91-29 combo at least to start the year to see how the impact these 4 guys have changed when we give them consistent minutes playing with high-end talent that thye have little prior minutes playing with.

Assuming Marner is re-signed before July 1 like Dubas wants to do, I would at least try having Matthews and Marner play together in the preseason, so that means having Tavares and Nylander also playing together at that time.

 

[LeafsNation75]

In terms of Marner vs Rantanen and how much Marner is overpaid compared to Rantanen's imaginary contract, we should probably let things play out before being outraged.

I think it's funny to already assume that Marner is or will be overpaid more than Rantanen or any of the other potential RFA's. Let's wait and see what Marner's contract will look like their contracts as well.

 

[cookie]

WHO HAS LEAD THE LEAFS IN POINTS FOR THE LAST 2 YEARS? Everything you say does not negate the fact that Marner has contributed more to the leafs than Matthews. You were an ardent Nylander fart catcher last year and now you are playing the sober analyst?Give all of us a break from your punditry because you are also in the category of hockey clown

In the past 2 years, Matthews has:
- played 34 fewer games than Marner,
- has not had the privilege of Tavares on his line at 5v5, and
- has 27 fewer points but 23 more goals

Given that it's much easier to rack up assists than goals, it should be sobering to see Matthews be so close to Marner given how bad Nylander is.

 

[Kiwi]

The thing to be noted regarding marner is were we simply expecting him to be a 70 point player again in 18/19 if he played with kadri or matthews? There was the natural expected progression that was expected to come from marner. Marner is one of the best wingers drafted in the last ten years. His draft status and development following his draft all suggested he was going to be a cream of the crop player in the league. In his D+4 season, he was 11th in league-wide scoring. What were realistic expectations from marner if he played with a good but not elite center this year. Fair to say it was 80-85 points. I can see playing with tavares having boosted marner 10ish points from what he would have produced if he played with another center(look at his production with kadri last year and slightly cut it from the 95 point pace he was going at to roughly ppg).

Marner will have elite seasons. His career has barely started. If Tavares was a free agent this season and we saw him play with marner next year the difference in his production from prior to JT to playing with JT would go from 25 points to around 12 points. This is an elite player. The fans have been going on and on about his talent. We saw what he did in the regular season. We saw his ability to set up chances for JT and saw a slight improvement in his goal scoring. Most of his boost in production was natural and would have occurred as long as you gave him a top 6 center and top line minutes + PP1 usage. People are really selling short what they expected of marner in his third season in the NHL if they think he couldn't be elite without playing with Tavares.

He's an excellent player who's feed off and working with our best puck retrieving LW and a genuine no debate 1C, he and Tavares work very well together but saying Marner is driving the line is wrong

There's 2 line drivers on that line working together, not one carrying the other

10 more goals then his previous best. Never has JT come close to scoring 50 goals like he did this year. Marner produced the same Ppg game the season before in the last 40 games playing with Kadri and Marleau. If our PP was even average he would easily had over 100 points. JT just had his best season playing with Marner. 10 goals more is a lot when you already played 9 seasons in the NHL as well his best year in total points. 53 primary assist to 25 primary assist. Marner is clearly driving that line watching should be enough never mind the stats that show it.

Tavares was one of the best players in the league before he even got here and carried his line with at times very average linemates

Bull**** Marner is driving that line for him

 

[diceman934]

He's an excellent player who's feed off and working with our best puck retrieving LW and a genuine no debate 1C, he and Tavares work very well together but saying Marner is driving the line is wrong

There's 2 line drivers on that line working together, not one carrying the other



Tavares was one of the best players in the league before he even got here and carried his line with at times very average linemates

Bull**** Marner is driving that line for him

Proof is in the stats. It is not BS it is a fact. He out produced him. Had more then double primary assists. Was a beast all season long and got his center 10 goals more then he ever scored in the past. For the first time JT was not the one driving the offence on his line. His goal totals proved it. Not saying JT is not s good player that was already proven. What I am saying he was finally playing with a better player then him is all.

 

[LeafsNation75]

10 more goals then his previous best. Never has JT come close to scoring 50 goals like he did this year. Marner produced the same Ppg game the season before in the last 40 games playing with Kadri and Marleau. If our PP was even average he would easily had over 100 points. JT just had his best season playing with Marner. 10 goals more is a lot when you already played 9 seasons in the NHL as well his best year in total points. 53 primary assist to 25 primary assist. Marner is clearly driving that line watching should be enough never mind the stats that show it.

Tavares was one of the best players in the league before he even got here and carried his line with at times very average linemates

Bull**** Marner is driving that line for him

Why don't you both agree that Tavares and Marner are both great in their own ways and Toronto is lucky to have them.

 

[diceman934]

It's insane. People are giving Marner waaaay too much credit for Tavares. Sure Tavares had more goals this year. But Tavares is a line driving machine and chameleon who does whatever it takes to make his linemates better. If Tavares has linemates who are shooters, he becomes a passer. This year he had a passer, so he became a shooter. And make no mistake, Tavares has done that his whole career. It's the mark of a truly elite player.

But playing with Marner did not raise his point totals significantly over the previous season. And this is a constant....since he entered the league, no one has had a significantly better statistical season playing with Marner than they did the preceding season before while playing without Marner.

Marner is being given waaaay too much credit for players doing what they would have done without him anyway.

We need to back up the hype train on this kid. He's a playmaking winger like Nylander, so let's use the same arguments for him not getting Matthews money please. Without a 9 goal in 7 game stretch, he's at his career norm of 20ish. Which is not worth 10 million in any league, for any reason......ESPECIALLY because he played with Tavares.

“He is a play making winger like Nylander “.

What a joke. He is our best player!

 

[diceman934]

Why don't you both agree that Tavares and Marner are both great in their own ways and Toronto is lucky to have them.

I agree we are lucky to have both. But I can not agree that Marner was carried by JT as many are saying as that simply is not true. Marner had an amazing year. He played on both the pk and pp was matched up against the other teams top lines. Other teams coached knew that they had to shut him Down as he was their primary focus. Lots of coaches have come out and said exactly that. Yet on here he is seen as a 3rd wheel and before this year a 4th wheel when it has been clear to me that he is our best player.

JT pissed me off in the playoffs attempting to do way to much by himself. He made very few passes and it hurt us.

 

[kb]

In the past 2 years, Matthews has:
- played 34 fewer games than Marner,
- has not had the privilege of Tavares on his line at 5v5, and
- has 27 fewer points but 23 more goals

Given that it's much easier to rack up assists than goals, it should be sobering to see Matthews be so close to Marner given how bad Nylander is.

Context is only important to him if it benefits his case. Pure points in seasons where one guy has missed significant time? Immaterial, and unimportant. Unless it went against his son Mitch.

 

[Kiwi]

Why don't you both agree that Tavares and Marner are both great in their own ways and Toronto is lucky to have them.

I've already written that, there feeding off each other not one guy is driving the line for the other

I can't understand how the one guy is driving the line for the other argument was even raised in the first place

Proof is in the stats. It is not BS it is a fact. He out produced him. Had more then double primary assists. Was a beast all season long and got his center 10 goals more then he ever scored in the past. For the first time JT was not the one driving the offence on his line. His goal totals proved it. Not saying JT is not s good player that was already proven. What I am saying he was finally playing with a better player then him is all.

Better than him? The franchise level 1C that was a stud on one of the worst teams in the league before he even got here? Marner isn't better than him

Tavares only beat his career best by 5 points, on an offense first team with Marner flanking him with our best LW, if Marner was driving that line I'd expect a better improvement than that

They both drove that line and feed off each other, that doesn't detract from Marner's playmaking ability but give me a break ones driving the line for the other

 

[LeafsNation75]

I've already written that, there feeding off each other not one guy is driving the line for the other

I can't understand how the one guy is driving the line for the other argument was even raised in the first place

I say that's the best way to look at things with them being on the same line.

 

[Scott Stevens]

I've already written that, there feeding off each other not one guy is driving the line for the other

I can't understand how the one guy is driving the line for the other argument was even raised in the first place



Better than him? The franchise level 1C that was a stud on one of the worst teams in the league before he even got here? Marner isn't better than him

Tavares only beat his career best by 5 points, on an offense first team with Marner flanking him with our best LW, if Marner was driving that line I'd expect a better improvement than that

They both drove that line and feed off each other, that doesn't detract from Marner's playmaking ability but give me a break ones driving the line for the other

Hey bud, kiddo.

You need to hear something.

You going all jihad against anyone saying Marner is good isn’t going to factor in to contract negotiations.

You can not affect the pending latest gross overpayment by the Kalculator Kid.

You gotta dial it back and relax my friend.

Marner is awesome. Marner is getting paid. No matter what diatribe you go on against it.

Go Leafs go.

 

[Goleafsgo95]

I think Marner has earned the right to demand a contract identical to Matthews. Those who have watched this team know that Marner is arguably more effective for the team than Matthews. The fact Marner is a winger should not weigh as heavily as other wingers because of everything that he can do to drive a line and be a consistent heartbeat of the team.

The way the contract situations have worked out is certainly not ideal but we have to see what the Leafs have in mind and see what happens.

 

[kb]

I've already written that, there feeding off each other not one guy is driving the line for the other

I can't understand how the one guy is driving the line for the other argument was even raised in the first place



Better than him? The franchise level 1C that was a stud on one of the worst teams in the league before he even got here? Marner isn't better than him

Tavares only beat his career best by 5 points, on an offense first team with Marner flanking him with our best LW, if Marner was driving that line I'd expect a better improvement than that

They both drove that line and feed off each other, that doesn't detract from Marner's playmaking ability but give me a break ones driving the line for the other

If I may, Tavares beat his previous year's total by 4 points, and his career high by 2 points. Hardly a ringing endorsement of someone else driving him to higher heights.....

One would expect double digit improvement to qualify as significant.

Just going to wait for the Marner rate stuff, so I can pull out Nylander's rate stuff to compare to Marner's. Then I will await for the attacks that Nylander was playing with Matthews. And then I will point out the fact that Marner played with Tavares. I'm ready guys.....fire away.

 

[LeafsNation75]

If I may, Tavares beat his previous year's total by 4 points, and his career high by 2 points. Hardly a ringing endorsement of someone else driving him to higher heights.....

One would expect double digit improvement to qualify as significant.

Just going to wait for the Marner rate stuff, so I can pull out Nylander's rate stuff to compare to Marner's. Then I will await for the attacks that Nylander was playing with Matthews. And then I will point out the fact that Marner played with Tavares. I'm ready guys.....fire away.

Tavares did improve his most goals scored in a season with 47 goals, when his previous high was 38 goals in 2015. So that's a difference of 9 more goals. Now personally I don't care how much of a factor Marner was for him doing that and I'm sure a lot of his assists lead to Tavares 47 goals. So like I said before I'm happy both are Maple Leafs and I'm not going to nit pick every single detail to see who is the better overall player.

 

[kb]

Tavares did improve his most goals scored in a season with 47 goals, when his previous high was 38 goals in 2015. So that's a difference of 9 more goals. Now personally I don't care how much of a factor Marner was for him doing that and I'm sure a lot of his assists lead to Tavares 47 goals. So like I said before I'm happy both are Maple Leafs and I'm not going to nit pick every single detail to see who is the better overall player.

Which is fine, I think that Tavares basically finds the best way to optimize his line. It doesn't mean he couldn't score 47 without Marner, he just chose to optimize his linemates like he always does. Unlike Marner, he is not a one trick pony. He knows that Marner is a one trick pony, and he adjusted his style of play to help Marner become the best version of Marner.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Which is fine, I think that Tavares basically finds the best way to optimize his line. It doesn't mean he couldn't score 47 without Marner, he just chose to optimize his linemates like he always does. Unlike Marner, he is not a one trick pony. He knows that Marner is a one trick pony, and he adjusted his style of play to help Marner become the best version of Marner.

So how come it was not until this season that Tavares finally scored at least 40 goals for the first time in his NHL career? I'm sure some of that reason was because of Marner, still I'm not complaining or saying it doesn't mean one is better than the other.

 

[kb]

So how come it was not until this season that Tavares finally scored at least 40 goals for the first time in his NHL career? I'm sure some of that reason was because of Marner, still I'm not complaining or saying it doesn't mean one is better than the other.

I thought I explained it....Tavares becomes what he needs to be to make his line more effective. He's one of the most intelligent players in the league. He's a chameleon.

2 great players on a line. One isn't driving the other. There was a symbiotic relationship. It wasn't Tavares sitting there and Marner doing all the work like some of these normally knowledgeable posters keep saying. Because John Tavares was on the ice....every team has always historically designed game plans around him. I actually think that Marner was very selfish this season and basically killed a lot of the production of the line, as he should have done a lot more give and goes.....because it did make him a one trick pony, especially on the PP. He needed to move the puck far more quickly.