Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion

[hamzarocks]

All well and good.

Over the course of the next 5-7 years, the centers will be carrying us.

you take off marner (and potentially nylander once he breaks back to his level) off this team and matthews+tavares are carrying us to a 9th-10th place finish. Look at the Islanders a team with an elite center (JT) they missed playoffs so often as they never got him an elite winger to play with who could play and think the game as he did. Matthews has not proven he can carry a team. He has injury concerns and is not a safe bet to play 82 game seasons. Tavares can't be leading a team with no quality wingers anywhere as we saw earlier in his career. This team needs its elite(franchise level) winger in marner for it to have long term success. Building with 2 elite centers won't work in the current NHL, even a top 10 player of all time and another top 25 player in Sid and Malkin were playoff failures for 5-6 years before they got an elite winger to fix their issues in kessel.

We shouldn't be discrediting what marner accomplished this year. He was the best forward for us from start to finish. In the previous 2 years, Matthews was sizeably ahead of him but this year marner outplayed Matthews. That just tells me marner had an insane year where his game went to another level. He has established himself alongside Pasternak and Draisaitl as the top 3 under 25 winger in the game. Marner will be our 2nd best player every year of his next contract (if he is with the leafs still) and will have seasons where he is our best player(like this season). Tavares will be declining in 3 years or so so doubt he will be a top 3 player on the team that far ahead into the future

 

[LeafsNation75]

Matthews has not proven he can carry a team. He has injury concerns and is not a safe bet to play 82 game seasons.

Wasn't Matthews at least 50% responsible for getting Toronto into the playoffs during his rookie season when he played all 82 games.

 

[hamzarocks]

Sorry. What is the assist award called? You think people consider the league leader in assists like goals and points?

He’s a 37 assist player?

You hear that often?

you've been going on about goals and 5v5 goals for a while but the truth is 1 assist=1 goal. People will always try and discredit playmakers but for them to get an assist the puck needs to end in the net. No player who is a better goal scorer than they are a playmaker will ever be a top 5 player (of all time) hell top 10 is pushing it. Playmakers control the pace of the game and are the ones who often generate the most offense. Being an elite goal scorer is nice but it doesn't make you a better player than someone with higher production. Crosby will always be a better player than Ovechkin despite their huge gap in goal scoring abilities.

The truly elite players are those who can balance out top tier goal scoring with top tier play making. Crosby, Geno, McDavid, Prime Ovy etc were/are all/been the best player in the league for multiple years because they can create their own offense for themselves(get their own goals) and for their linemates(be elite passers) as well as being able to finish set ups by their line mates.

Neither Matthews nor Marner(or anyone on the leafs) have this balance yet. We have a top 10 play maker in marner and a top 3 goal scorer in Matthews, but neither of them are even top 10 players league wide as they can't put together the ability to excel at both their areas. Matthews next step is to see his play making reach another level. He should be putting together Draisaitl 18/19 seasons on a yearly basis if he wants to be regarded as a top 3 player league-wide. Marner will need to see his goal scoring rise 10ish goals for him to be considered in a similar spot.

 

[Kiwi]

What would you look at to determine who is driving a lines production?

Assists primary assists is the best stat. Marner was 3 in the league in primary assists he had 53. JT had 25. JT would not have had 47 goals this year without Marner. Marner proved the year before he could produce at a similar pace playing with Kadri and Marleau as he did for the last 40 games the previous season which included the playoffs.

In 10 years in the NHL JT just had more goals then assist this year for the first time. He drove production on his line in every other year as he was the man passing the puck to his line mates.

5 more points than his career high, 5

Marner just had his best statistical season by a country mile playing with Tavares

So who's driving that line again? Seems to me there feeding off each other not one dudes driving the line for the other dude, I know you love Marner but jesus

 

[MLSE]

9.95 for 6-8 years.

If he wants over 10, he better wait until his next contract. He is a winger who played with a franchise center.

9.95 over 8 years, lol.

You guys don't take into account the cap rising.

9-9.5 on a 5 year deal is fair money.

You, like many fans, value the later years very incorrectly. You can't assume 6 years is the same pay as 8 years. Right there it shows you don't know what you're talking about.

But I will entertain it. If you are willing to give 9.95 on a 6 year. So 12% of next years cap over 6 years.. even if you were going to give him a low end 12% for years 7 and 8... you're over 100 million cap at that point.. 12.5 million lets say is your measely 12%..

25 million + 59.7 million = 84.7 over 8 years... 10.6 per.

And thats a generous deal from Marner taking 12% of today's cap over 6 years.

Like I said, 5 year deal... okay 9-9.5, every year after that costs you more money, it's how this thing works. So you personally, youre looking at a 5 year but don't talk act like it's so crazy to have the number closer to 11 then 9 if you're talking about an 8 year deal.

 

[Bomber0104]

Wasn't Matthews at least 50% responsible for getting Toronto into the playoffs during his rookie season when he played all 82 games.

Toronto had 3 very capable NHL centres: Matthews, Bozak, and Kadri. It was a perfect storm of existing talent on the roster and literally a jettison of extremely high value ELC talent onto the roster...

And one of the best hockey coaches in modern day history.

Matthews gets credit, but he was one of many that had a hand in the last-place to playoff turnaround.

 

[Legion34]

You said he had not finished in the top 10 in anything. I posted proof you were wrong so you resort to nonsense.

No. I said you are correct on those points. You are.

I am also correct in stating that the NHL awards leaders in goals and points not assists.

Stats leaderboards on the official NHL website do not list assist leaders... And no one ever mentions a persons assists total. Like ever.

He’s a point per game player.
He’s a 40 goal scorer ....

Never assists. So when I was speaking I was saying that Matthews has had a top 2 goal year.

Marner has had 38, 38 and 11th points

So that’s what I meant. But yes you are correct.

 

[hamzarocks]

Wasn't Matthews at least 50% responsible for getting Toronto into the playoffs during his rookie season when he played all 82 games.

How can one player in the sport of hockey be 50% responsible for a team making the playoffs? That year we had an infusion of youth onto our roster. Nylander(the best prospect in the world by most outlets at the time of his arrival), marner(a top 3 prospect in the world coming into his D+2 season), brown (great ahl player with promise), Hyman(a hard working grinding player), a healthy JVR(missed 40+ games in 15/16), a legit number 1 goalie in Andersen, a coach (who despite looking like a poor fit now) was regarded as a top 3 coach league-wide at our services, along with the incredible growth in Kadri and gardiners games . So hard to give one player a % for their responsibility in making the playoffs but 50% seems like a huge overestimate. At most I think we can say he was 20-25% responsible.

The leafs in 17/18 with additions of PM and RH along with the growth of some rookies were able to improve and make the playoffs once again despite our best player(matthews was the best player on the team no question in 16/17 and 17/18) missing 20 games. He was still very valuable and impactful in his sophomore year but even in his absense, we continued to be a strong team.

 

[Legion34]

5 more points than his career high, 5

Marner just had his best statistical season by a country mile playing with Tavares

So who's driving that line again? Seems to me there feeding off each other not one dudes driving the line for the other dude, I know you love Marner but jesus

Has to be a blood relative. It’s the only thing that makes sense.

There was a time when they blamed 2 goals in 36 games in mono...... the season before

 

[Legion34]

you've been going on about goals and 5v5 goals for a while but the truth is 1 assist=1 goal. People will always try and discredit playmakers but for them to get an assist the puck needs to end in the net. No player who is a better goal scorer than they are a playmaker will ever be a top 5 player (of all time) hell top 10 is pushing it. Playmakers control the pace of the game and are the ones who often generate the most offense. Being an elite goal scorer is nice but it doesn't make you a better player than someone with higher production. Crosby will always be a better player than Ovechkin despite their huge gap in goal scoring abilities.

The truly elite players are those who can balance out top tier goal scoring with top tier play making. Crosby, Geno, McDavid, Prime Ovy etc were/are all/been the best player in the league for multiple years because they can create their own offense for themselves(get their own goals) and for their linemates(be elite passers) as well as being able to finish set ups by their line mates.

Neither Matthews nor Marner(or anyone on the leafs) have this balance yet. We have a top 10 play maker in marner and a top 3 goal scorer in Matthews, but neither of them are even top 10 players league wide as they can't put together the ability to excel at both their areas. Matthews next step is to see his play making reach another level. He should be putting together Draisaitl 18/19 seasons on a yearly basis if he wants to be regarded as a top 3 player league-wide. Marner will need to see his goal scoring rise 10ish goals for him to be considered in a similar spot.

Huh? Assists are as valuable as goals? Really?

 

[hamzarocks]

5 more points than his career high, 5

Marner just had his best statistical season by a country mile playing with Tavares

So who's driving that line again? Seems to me there feeding off each other not one dudes driving the line for the other dude, I know you love Marner but jesus

The thing to be noted regarding marner is were we simply expecting him to be a 70 point player again in 18/19 if he played with kadri or matthews? There was the natural expected progression that was expected to come from marner. Marner is one of the best wingers drafted in the last ten years. His draft status and development following his draft all suggested he was going to be a cream of the crop player in the league. In his D+4 season, he was 11th in league-wide scoring. What were realistic expectations from marner if he played with a good but not elite center this year. Fair to say it was 80-85 points. I can see playing with tavares having boosted marner 10ish points from what he would have produced if he played with another center(look at his production with kadri last year and slightly cut it from the 95 point pace he was going at to roughly ppg).

Marner will have elite seasons. His career has barely started. If Tavares was a free agent this season and we saw him play with marner next year the difference in his production from prior to JT to playing with JT would go from 25 points to around 12 points. This is an elite player. The fans have been going on and on about his talent. We saw what he did in the regular season. We saw his ability to set up chances for JT and saw a slight improvement in his goal scoring. Most of his boost in production was natural and would have occurred as long as you gave him a top 6 center and top line minutes + PP1 usage. People are really selling short what they expected of marner in his third season in the NHL if they think he couldn't be elite without playing with Tavares.

 

[LeafsNation75]

How can one player in the sport of hockey be 50% responsible for a team making the playoffs? That year we had an infusion of youth onto our roster. Nylander(the best prospect in the world by most outlets at the time of his arrival), marner(a top 3 prospect in the world coming into his D+2 season), brown (great ahl player with promise), Hyman(a hard working grinding player), a healthy JVR(missed 40+ games in 15/16), a legit number 1 goalie in Andersen, a coach (who despite looking like a poor fit now) was regarded as a top 3 coach league-wide at our services, along with the incredible growth in Kadri and gardiners games . So hard to give one player a % for their responsibility in making the playoffs but 50% seems like a huge overestimate. At most I think we can say he was 20-25% responsible.

The leafs in 17/18 with additions of PM and RH along with the growth of some rookies were able to improve and make the playoffs once again despite our best player(matthews was the best player on the team no question in 16/17 and 17/18) missing 20 games. He was still very valuable and impactful in his sophomore year but even in his absense, we continued to be a strong team.

In 2017 Matthews had 40 goals which played a huge part. The other factors were Marner, Nylander and Andersen's goaltending.

 

[93LEAFS]

What would you look at to determine who is driving a lines production?

Assists primary assists is the best stat. Marner was 3 in the league in primary assists he had 53. JT had 25. JT would not have had 47 goals this year without Marner. Marner proved the year before he could produce at a similar pace playing with Kadri and Marleau as he did for the last 40 games the previous season which included the playoffs.

In 10 years in the NHL JT just had more goals then assist this year for the first time. He drove production on his line in every other year as he was the man passing the puck to his line mates.

I'd say this, Marner took JT's goal scoring to the next level, but JT helped take Mitch's assist production to the next level. Outside of JT's lack of burst, he is one of the most adaptable players in the league. In the island, he was asked to be a very complete offensive player, whereas here, he was asked to be the secondary puck handler and finisher. It's why this year (and hopefully next year now), and now next year I hope to see JT get a shot with JT who is more well-rounded than Matthews offensively, and Marner with Matthews. Doesn't need to be permanent, but Mitch is a more pure playmaker than Nylander, and Matthews is more of a pure finisher than JT.

Mitch was the primary puck handler and playmaker, which makes him in many ways the driver of the line. But, the caveat is that JT is one of the few guys who can adapt his game in a style that maximized Marner's production. At the end of the day, we had to guys who were able to drive play in their own unique way that worked between the two.

 

[MLSE]

9.5 M - 5 year
10 M - 6 year
10.5 M - 7 year
11 M - 8 year

If we get in that range, Dubas did his job correctly.

 

[hamzarocks]

Huh? Assists are as valuable as goals? Really?

why would they not be? I can never understand why a person would value goals higher than assists. It's impossible to get an assist unless your team finishes plays and scores a goal. The elite players shine in primary assists and have the ability to find passes for linemates that most cant. Marner is an elite playmaker. He is not a top 10 player in the world. To have that ability you need to be elite in both areas (exception perhaps being current Ovechkin who people still peg as a top 7 player league wide).

Matthews is a 45-50 goal scorer but is a 35-40 assist getter. He ends up being a 85-90 point player in a league where their are a bunch of guys producing in that range. Matthews can't become the player so many think he is right now(similar tier as mackinnon, crosby, some even say in same tier as mcdavid and kucherov) until he gets the ability to become an elite set up man. Ovechkin from 07-10 was the best/2nd best player but he was a legit 55 goals and 55 assist type of player. He was able to dominate both areas of skills in goal scoring and playmaking. Ovechkin was never going to be a the best play maker, he was never going it get 65+ assists but he found a way to generate enough offense for both himself and his linemates that it didn't matter. Matthews needs to find that next gear and become a 50+50 guy for him to deserve the hype he gets as a player.

 

[LeafsNation75]

I'd say this, Marner took JT's goal scoring to the next level, but JT helped take Mitch's assist production to the next level. Outside of JT's lack of burst, he is one of the most adaptable players in the league. In the island, he was asked to be a very complete offensive player, whereas here, he was asked to be the secondary puck handler and finisher. It's why this year (and hopefully next year now), we get to see Nylander get a shot with JT who is more well-rounded than Matthews offensively, and Marner with Matthews. Doesn't need to be permanent, but Mitch is a more pure playmaker than Nylander, and Matthews is more of a pure finisher than JT.

Mitch was the primary puck handler and playmaker, which makes him in many ways the driver of the line. But, the caveat is that JT is one of the few guys who can adapt his game in a style that maximized Marner's production. At the end of the day, we had to guys who were able to drive play in their own unique way that worked between the two.

In Marner's first two seasons he had 42 and 47 assists, so it was established that it was something he was great at creating for himself. However his 68 assists this season with Tavares did help him a lot in that category.

Also when Tavares was with the Islanders outside of Barzal's rookie season, wasn't he their only option for offense and why he made other players like Matt Moulson or Kyle Okposo look a lot better than they really were?

 

[Bomber0104]

I'd say this, Marner took JT's goal scoring to the next level, but JT helped take Mitch's assist production to the next level. Outside of JT's lack of burst, he is one of the most adaptable players in the league. In the island, he was asked to be a very complete offensive player, whereas here, he was asked to be the secondary puck handler and finisher. It's why this year (and hopefully next year now), we get to see Nylander get a shot with JT who is more well-rounded than Matthews offensively, and Marner with Matthews. Doesn't need to be permanent, but Mitch is a more pure playmaker than Nylander, and Matthews is more of a pure finisher than JT.

Mitch was the primary puck handler and playmaker, which makes him in many ways the driver of the line. But, the caveat is that JT is one of the few guys who can adapt his game in a style that maximized Marner's production. At the end of the day, we had to guys who were able to drive play in their own unique way that worked between the two.

Excellent analysis.

 

[hamzarocks]

In 2017 Matthews had 40 goals which played a huge part. The other factors were Marner, Nylander and Andersen's goaltending.

For sure Matthews had 40 goals and he was/still is a great goal scorer. But people refer to his goal totals as if he creates each of his goals on his own or simply skates the puck into the zone and goes through/around the defense before finishing the play for a goal. He has linemates who have been able to feed him and utilize his strengths as a player(his great release, hands in close, ability to jam pucks in front of the net, ability to beat goalies both low and high). Hyman(first two years) , Nylander(first two seasons), Kap(at times)/AJ(at times) have all been working as the role of playmaker. They play big roles in either grinding the puck along the boards to keep possession intact, or being able to gain the zone and make seamless needle passes onto the tape of a open/semi-open Matthews who is able to finish the play for a goal. People say goals but don't acknowledge that most of the times it takes a line/unit wide effort to get the chances which lead to the goal. One single player won't be beating goalies continuously by creating chances only off of their stick.

 

[Legion34]

why would they not be? I can never understand why a person would value goals higher than assists. It's impossible to get an assist unless your team finishes plays and scores a goal. The elite players shine in primary assists and have the ability to find passes for linemates that most cant. Marner is an elite playmaker. He is not a top 10 player in the world. To have that ability you need to be elite in both areas (exception perhaps being current Ovechkin who people still peg as a top 7 player league wide).

Matthews is a 45-50 goal scorer but is a 35-40 assist getter. He ends up being a 85-90 point player in a league where their are a bunch of guys producing in that range. Matthews can't become the player so many think he is right now(similar tier as mackinnon, crosby, some even say in same tier as mcdavid and kucherov) until he gets the ability to become an elite set up man. Ovechkin from 07-10 was the best/2nd best player but he was a legit 55 goals and 55 assist type of player. He was able to dominate both areas of skills in goal scoring and playmaking. Ovechkin was never going to be a the best play maker, he was never going it get 65+ assists but he found a way to generate enough offense for both himself and his linemates that it didn't matter. Matthews needs to find that next gear and become a 50+50 guy for him to deserve the hype he gets as a player.

Because the game is who score the most goals? It’s literally the ONLY thing that wins the game n

You can have 2 assists to a goal. You can also have no assists on a goal.

Who is more important?

50’goal. 30’assist ovechkin... or 30g 50’assist Kessel?

 

[LeafsNation75]

For sure Matthews had 40 goals and he was/still is a great goal scorer. But people refer to his goal totals as if he creates each of his goals on his own or simply skates the puck into the zone and goes through/around the defense before finishing the play for a goal. He has linemates who have been able to feed him and utilize his strengths as a player(his great release, hands in close, ability to jam pucks in front of the net, ability to beat goalies both low and high). Hyman(first two years) , Nylander(first two seasons), Kap(at times)/AJ(at times) have all been working as the role of playmaker. They play big roles in either grinding the puck along the boards to keep possession intact, or being able to gain the zone and make seamless needle passes onto the tape of a open/semi-open Matthews who is able to finish the play for a goal. People say goals but don't acknowledge that most of the times it takes a line/unit wide effort to get the chances which lead to the goal. One single player won't be beating goalies continuously by creating chances only off of their stick.

Let's say Babcock had played Matthews with Tavares together starting in their rookie seasons, would Matthews totals be what Tavares had playing with Marner this season and what would Marner's total also look like? I know he tried them on the same line before the All Star Game and I think for 1 or 2 games after that, although it wasn't big enough a sample size to know for sure and I'm not including when they were on the #1 power play line this season.

 

[hamzarocks]

Because the game is who score the most goals? It’s literally the ONLY thing that wins the game n

You can have 2 assists to a goal. You can also have no assists on a goal.

Who is more important?

50’goal. 30’assist ovechkin... or 30g 50’assist Kessel?

kessel has been more valuable and outplayed ovechkin in certain seasons and head to head in playoff series. Yes ovechkin is the better player than kessel for his career, peak, prime etc. But he hasn't been regarded as a top 5 player in the league for a long time(since 09/10) with the exception of last year when he was able to deliver a cup to the caps.

Who is a better player 50 goal/30 ovechkin or 35 goal/ 55 assist crosby?

 

[93LEAFS]

In Marner's first two seasons he had 42 and 47 assists, so it was established that it was something he was great at creating for himself. However his 68 assists this season with Tavares did help him a lot in that category.

Also when Tavares was with the Islanders outside of Barzal's rookie season, wasn't he their only option for offense and why he made other players like Matt Moulson or Kyle Okposo look a lot better than they really were?

I think we are saying the same thing. When JT was with the Isles he was asked to be the everything offensive player and had to be puck dominant, which led him to find many guys for easy goals. With Marner, he tends to be the beneficiary of these (partially, because easy goals are also fueled by JT's high-IQ to anticipate soft spots in the ice). I love how both players play and they compliment each other. Marner was on-pace to become a great player before JT arrived, and JT could have been a great goal scorer before Mitch. They just happened to bring the best out of each other in those regards.

 

[Legion34]

kessel has been more valuable and outplayed ovechkin in certain seasons and head to head in playoff series. Yes ovechkin is the better player than kessel for his career, peak, prime etc. But he hasn't been regarded as a top 5 player in the league for a long time(since 09/10) with the exception of last year when he was able to deliver a cup to the caps.

Who is a better player 50 goal/30 ovechkin or 35 goal/ 55 assist crosby?

If Crosby is a defensively suspect winger. Then ovechkin.

Comparing players purely on offence.

If player x scores 50 goals and 20 assists
That player is more valuable than a 20 goal 50’assist player.

It’s just how it is. At the end Of the day they count goals. Not assists.

 

[diceman934]

5 more points than his career high, 5

Marner just had his best statistical season by a country mile playing with Tavares

So who's driving that line again? Seems to me there feeding off each other not one dudes driving the line for the other dude, I know you love Marner but jesus

10 more goals then his previous best. Never has JT come close to scoring 50 goals like he did this year. Marner produced the same Ppg game the season before in the last 40 games playing with Kadri and Marleau. If our PP was even average he would easily had over 100 points. JT just had his best season playing with Marner. 10 goals more is a lot when you already played 9 seasons in the NHL as well his best year in total points. 53 primary assist to 25 primary assist. Marner is clearly driving that line watching should be enough never mind the stats that show it.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Are you saying this is largely Dubas fault for dramatically overpaying matthews? Because if so, I'd be in agreement.

Matthews is 2-3 mil overpaid per season but he had Dubas by the balls, nothing Dubas could do about it ... Matthews wanted 14 AAV for 8 years lmao ... a greedy greedy kid who I bet is gone in UFA