Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[Ziggdiezan]

this is the important part, a bit overpay is fine (ie: Nylander is max $500K overpaid) but if we are talking $1M+ overpay walkaway

Depends on the term for me and the return on the package for example a 1 million dollar overpay on an 8 year deal is more manageable if the package isnt ideal or the offersheet picks very late.

 

[Walshy7]

So you do not sign Mitch for $10,5 if his marker value is $9.5 ?? 10% seems to be be what Dubas is overpaying these days.

if they truly value him there then yes. But I doubt they are sticking there, as I said to you in another post $11M + im out way too much for a winger

 

[ToneDog]

sure. depends on the overpay of marner though. Out of principal I don't want an $11M+ winger if signing marner to $10M-10.5M means we must trade nylander, go for it. Pretty disappointing time to trade him though at this lowest value point, wont get anything close to as good back for him as we should.

Lets say Kap and AJ = $7M in cap together, id trade them both and keep nylander though

AJ and Kappy should come in less than $7M (big should). How Willie's contract is structured makes his a valuable trade asset. I do not think his trade value is as low as some think.

 

[Walshy7]

Depends on the term for me and the return on the package for example a 1 million dollar overpay on an 8 year deal is more manageable if the package isnt ideal or the offersheet picks very late.

Well the picks are over 4 years there is no way of knowing where those picks will be, except maybe next years. For example look at boston aging team likely make the playoffs next season but who know the 3 years after that. That is the reason I doubt he even gets offered an offersheet

 

[Mr Hockey]

even if a team offer sheeted Marner, I'm 99.9% sure it won't happen, I don't think Marner would sign it

 

[Walshy7]

AJ and Kappy should come in less than $7M (big should). How Willie's contract is structured makes his a valuable trade asset. I do not think his trade value is as low as some think.

If he gets a good return and is needed to go for marner, goodbye willy. Again as long as it isn't a stupid contract for a sub 30 goal winger

 

[Trapper]

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl-salary-cap-could-be-below-83-million-for-2019-20-season-1.1323817

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Well the picks are over 4 years there is no way of knowing where those picks will be, except maybe next years. For example look at boston aging team likely make the playoffs next season but who know the 3 years after that. That is the reason I doubt he even gets offered an offersheet

Ya someone posted that only 4 teams have made the playoffs every year the past 4 year so statistically one pick should be a lottery pick.

However if a team like Boston, Avs, Blues etc offerhseet marner vs a team like NJD, Buffalo, Arizona etc I think you can assume which team picks will likely be higher.

Ya I really doubt there will be an offersheet, seems like it is being used as a pretext to justify an overpayment, kind of like with Matthews. I'm guessing he signs in Toronto and is overpaid pretty badly in comparison to other wingers.

 

[Mess]

if they truly value him there then yes. But I doubt they are sticking there, as I said to you in another post $11M + im out way too much for a winger

Not sure Dubas would however ..

If Marner got an $11.5 mil offersheet X 7 years are we sure Dubas will walk away?

If the goal it to WIN NOW then those comp picks serve little value to that goal other than as currency in trade, as opposed to actually using them as draft picks in the future.

Leafs matching an offersheet might be worst case scenario cap wise, however I'm not convinced the Leafs would walk away, unless the amount comes in more than Matthews. IMO

 

[Mad hatter]

Not that I am on the trading Marner bandwagon but if we can’t get a deal worked out would,

Marner for Makar and the 4th overall

This is something I suggested in the trade thread. It would be hard to improve the team by trading Marner but definitely would need a young top pairing RD coming back if we did.

 

[Walshy7]

Not sure Dubas would however ..

If Marner got an $11.5 mil offersheet X 7 years are we sure Dubas will walk away?

If the goal it to WIN NOW then those comp picks serve little value to that goal other than as currency in trade, as opposed to actually using them as draft picks in the future.

Leafs matching an offersheet might be worst case scenario cap wise, however I'm not convinced the Leafs would walk away, unless the amount comes in more than Matthews. IMO

well as far as I know you are allowed to trade those picks, 4 x 1st would get a pretty damn good dman id imagine

 

[Walshy7]

Not that I am on the trading Marner bandwagon but if we can’t get a deal worked out would,

Marner for Makar and the 4th overall

This is something I suggested in the trade thread. It would be hard to improve the team by trading Marner but definitely would need a young top pairing RD coming back if we did.

Colorado have rantanen to sign there is now ay they do that

 

[Sypher04]

Even IF Marner would sign an offersheet, and I legitimately doubt he would, but going on that premise, you match. If he doesn't fit money wise in the team long term then you trade him on your own terms a year or two later. 4 first round picks of undetermined quality doesn't come even close to matching Marner's value and importance to this team.

 

[ACC1224]

Only if they don't employ the cap savings in addition to the 4 firsts. Keep one pick and trade three for a D man, and sign Panarin = game changing home run for the club. They need to spend the millions they won't pay him and deal most or all of the picks because the draft choices will do nothing to help the club in the next few years and are a lot more valuable to a rebuilding club. Would the Jets accept 4 first for Trouba?

Like the Leafs the 4 picks don't really help the Team today.
Rebuilding teams sure, not teams hoping to contend.

IMO, Marner > 4 1sts.

 

[Stamkos4life]

It's pretty simple. If you go through ELC as a 0.72 PPG player over a big sample size, you've earned a contract in line with what other players who did that. If you're a 0.54 PPG player with a breakthrough season, you've earned a contract in line with others like that. And if you are a .92 PPG player, you've earned a contract similar to other players like that.

That's all there is to it.

---

As to your other point, I'll let Mavis answer that.

This seems like a very simplistic view. What about usage? Linemates/opposition? What about age?

But I was mostly wondering if you are okay with marner making 10-11 mil?

If you think two 60 point seasons are worth ~2.75 mil more than one 60 point season, then two 60 points and one 90 point season should be worth 3-4 mil more than two 60 point seasons.

Like I said, I'm just looking for consistency.

Ps you're the one who said we are paying based on what they have proven. It's clearly not true.

 

[Walshy7]

Even IF Marner would sign an offersheet, and I legitimately doubt he would, but going on that premise, you match. If he doesn't fit money wise in the team long term then you trade him on your own terms a year or two later. 4 first round picks of undetermined quality doesn't come even close to matching Marner's value and importance to this team.

the problem with that is say you trade nylader and in a year figure out marner and JT/Matthews is too much on the cap you've already traded our 2nd best winger away so now you have to throw more depth over board because no one will score at marners level and even nylanders level is above average

 

[kb]

Not sure Dubas would however ..

If Marner got an $11.5 mil offersheet X 7 years are we sure Dubas will walk away?

If the goal it to WIN NOW then those comp picks serve little value to that goal other than as currency in trade, as opposed to actually using them as draft picks in the future.

Leafs matching an offersheet might be worst case scenario cap wise, however I'm not convinced the Leafs would walk away, unless the amount comes in more than Matthews. IMO

So 4 first rounds picks and an extra $10 million in cap space is less valuable than a Marner signed for a $2 million overpay, who finished 34 points back of another winger in the scoring race?

 

[Sypher04]

the problem with that is say you trade nylader and in a year figure out marner and JT/Matthews is too much on the cap you've already traded our 2nd best winger away so now you have to throw more depth over board because no one will score at marners level and even nylanders level is above average

Who said to trade Nylander? That wouldn't be my plan at all. We have other options to open short term cap space.

 

[Walshy7]

Who said to trade Nylander? That wouldn't be my plan at all. We have other options to open short term cap space.

IF you had to trade him to fit marner, that is a very possible scenario. Lets hope it comes to none of this though, Marner on a fair (not too much overpaid contract) keep nylander and move the deadwood (marleau etc)

 

[kb]

Like the Leafs the 4 picks don't really help the Team today.
Rebuilding teams sure, not teams hoping to contend.

IMO, Marner > 4 1sts.

4 1sts and about $10 million in additional cap space. Why do people continue to only mention half of the equation??? So much that you can sign AND trade for with that kind of currency and cap room.

 

[MyBudJT]

So 4 first rounds picks and an extra $10 million in cap space is less valuable than a Marner signed for a $2 million overpay, who finished 34 points back of another winger in the scoring race?

What a silly, silly thing to be critical about.

 

[Mess]

well as far as I know you are allowed to trade those picks, 4 x 1st would get a pretty damn good dman id imagine

Agreed, but you would almost need to have a deal already in principle completed at the same time you decided to take the comp picks instead of match the deal..

ie Leafs announce they're not matching but have acquired Jacob Trouba from the Jets for draft picks including some of the comp picks.

That way Dubas has something to stand on in his defense of letting Marner leave. IMO

If Dubas let Marner go simply for future picks without a plan in place to see results and return to help the team win in the present, the blow-back with lots of criticism from media and Leaf nation would be significant and endless second guessing previous decisions and his own experience level that now cost the Leafs one of their best players.

I think the pressure to match an offersheet even for more money than you were willing to pay, and then deal with the cap consequences of who might have to go as a result might be the preferred Leaf outcome, all things considered. The exception is if the OS is simply too high to make good business sense and then that is your defense to going a different direction.

 

[nuck]

Colorado have rantanen to sign there is no way they do that

Yes that would basically create the salary hill for team Ranta to die on because you aren't trading Marner if he would sign for $10M and Rantanen won't sign for a nickel less than such a similar team mate. A team without a gamebreaker might be the destination for Mitch because they would have cap space and the overpay wouldn't mess with their own RFAs because of the talent tier difference.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Like the Leafs the 4 picks don't really help the Team today.
Rebuilding teams sure, not teams hoping to contend.

IMO, Marner > 4 1sts.

But that's not the comparison. It's Marner vs. 4 firsts plus $11M+ in cap space, or another high level player if you prefer. Let's call it 4 firsts plus Panarin plus probably $2M in leftover cap space. Or 4 firsts plus Trouba and probably $4M in leftover cap space. You really have to decide exactly how in love with this player you are at that point.

 

[Mad hatter]

Colorado have rantanen to sign there is now ay they do that[/QUOTE

They do have over 37 million in cap space but you’re right, that would make them tight against it. If Marner does get traded then they wouldn’t much money coming back I’d assume because that’s the only reason he’d be traded, to save cap space.