Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[biotk]

I don’t understand how this is going to work

It's not going to.

His coaching philosophy has to change.

It won't.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

We were men, too.

And sheep were nervous....

 

[RogerRoger]

Isn't this the opposite of argument of those defending Dubas?

What I've been continuously told is that there is a new paradigm in the nhl, where young rfa's in their prime get the big pay days, and it will be ufa's who take a hit. Dubas was "ahead of crowd" and saw this new paradigm approaching when he gave out those dramatic overpayments.

But as the Nelson and Skinner contracts show... that most certainly doesn't seem to be the case...

Most teams were up against the cap ceiling as it was. If every rfa and ufa just makes higher cap percentages than before, how exactly will this work out? Most bottom 6 players already make diddly squat, so paying them less will barely make a dent.

IMO, upfront teams are going to be constructed with expensive UFA&RFA, cheap ELC and almost minimum salary grit vet. Defensively it's a bit different since there's a lack of 2nd pairing dmen in the league, so mediocre players get overpaid there.

The UFA that will take a hit aremediocre 3rd and 4th liners that can be replaced with ELC players. Those tweeners will get bare minimum contract instead of the 2-3 millions they used to get. Guys like Frolik won't make 4M anymore.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Its more so that regardless of age, the top stars on your team will be paid top dollar, which is what we are continuously seeing now around the NHL. It use to just be that UFA players did, but if your RFA's are your best players, they will now be paid the most regardless.

The cba is specifically structured to give rfa’s far less leverage than ufa’s.

The fact that gm’s aren’t using that leverage is baffling.

Remains to be seen if it’s just Dubas and a couple others that are doing this though.

Let’s see what Marner signs for compared to the other star rfa’s this offseason.

Manage your expectations. We’re talking about a rookie gm who has made it abundantly clear he doesn’t know what he’s doing.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

IMO, upfront teams are going to be constructed with expensive UFA&RFA, cheap ELC and almost minimum salary grit vet. Defensively it's a bit different since there's a lack of 2nd pairing dmen in the league, so mediocre players get overpaid there.

The UFA that will take a hit aremediocre 3rd and 4th liners that can be replaced with ELC players. Those tweeners will get bare minimum contract instead of the 2-3 millions they used to get. Guys like Frolik won't make 4M anymore.

The majority of 3rd/4th liners already make a pittance. Paying them 700k instead of 900k will barely make a dent in comparison to rfa’s all making MILLIONS more than they used to.

 

[kb]

I don’t understand how this is going to work, 3 guys making 11+ on the cap, when the coach we have aims for even ice time distribution across all lines. He will need to play those 3 guys 20+mins a night for us to win. His coaching philosophy has to change.

Easy, you trade Marner if he wants an 8 figure AAV. He finished 34 points behind another winger who has a $9.5 AAV, and has scored 40, 39, and 41 goals the past 3 seasons.

 

[57 Years No Cup]

Looks like the NHL is stratifying into the haves and the have nots....just like broader society is losing the middle class. Surely this doesn't bode well for team (player) unity?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Looks like the NHL is stratifying into the haves and the have nots....just like broader society is losing the middle class. Surely this doesn't bode well for team (player) unity?

Especially since the vast majority of the nhlpa would fall into the “have not” category.

 

[paulhiggins]

Once the 3rd/4th liners realize they have the same "one vote" at contract time as the 1st/2nd liners this will change when the poor folk vote down any CBA that divides each team into 2 distinct classes. There will be provisions to protect each team from its own dumb GMs (it's not just Dubas!) with restrictions on term based on age, caps on RFA salaries based on term, lower cap% allowed per player, etc. Greed (lack of concern for winning and the welfare of their fellow workers) is setting the players up for a long lockout. I think over one year will be lost.

 

[Advanced stats]

Looks like the NHL is stratifying into the haves and the have nots....just like broader society is losing the middle class. Surely this doesn't bode well for team (player) unity?

It's about time GM's learned not to overpay middle level talent and started paying stars.
In case anyone hasn't noticed, it's stars that win cups. Enough of the Lucic, Bobby Ryan and JVR type deals.

 

[selltrade]

anyone else starting to think Marner will be dealt shortly? To many other areas need to be resolved to wait.. i.e. AJ, KK , Marleau, Zaitsev, the D etc

 

[4thline]

The cba is specifically structured to give rfa’s far less leverage than ufa’s.

The fact that gm’s aren’t using that leverage is baffling.

A. The extent of that leverage has long been artificially inflated by teams playing nice with an unspoken code about not using the single biggest tool available to RFA's.

B. The importance of using that leverage was largely based on erroneous assumptions of when players primes and peaks are.

C. The average fan's value perception of contracts was completely destroyed during the backdiving deal era. Sidney Crosby was a 12 million dollar player 6 years ago.

Players are going to pushback against C. GM's are going to adjust for B in a way that could erase A.

 

[ACC1224]

anyone else starting to think Marner will be dealt shortly? To many other areas need to be resolved to wait.. i.e. AJ, KK , Marleau, Zaitsev, the D etc

Nope, still lots of time

 

[Walshy7]

anyone else starting to think Marner will be dealt shortly? To many other areas need to be resolved to wait.. i.e. AJ, KK , Marleau, Zaitsev, the D etc

Lets hope they can find a middle ground, id gladly toss AJ, Kap, Marleau and Zaitsev overboard to keep marner if it came to that. We'd need a lot of cheap vets/ELC but babcock seemed to insinuate next season Korshkov and Mikhayev (must have butchered that spelling) will be fighting for a spot on the team. On D we have Rosen/Borgman right now and Liljegren and Sandin aren't too far off

 

[nuck]

2B is by far the least desirable outcome. I'd be very surprised and disappointed if they settled for that.

Only if they don't employ the cap savings in addition to the 4 firsts. Keep one pick and trade three for a D man, and sign Panarin = game changing home run for the club. They need to spend the millions they won't pay him and deal most or all of the picks because the draft choices will do nothing to help the club in the next few years and are a lot more valuable to a rebuilding club. Would the Jets accept 4 first for Trouba?

 

[Bomber0104]

A. The extent of that leverage has long been artificially inflated by teams playing nice with an unspoken code about not using the single biggest tool available to RFA's.

B. The importance of using that leverage was largely based on erroneous assumptions of when players primes and peaks are.

C. The average fan's value perception of contracts was completely destroyed during the backdiving deal era. Sidney Crosby was a 12 million dollar player 6 years ago.

Players are going to pushback against C. GM's are going to adjust for B in a way that could erase A.

I wouldn't underestimate owners willingness to collude together to suppress salaries.

And eventually you're going to see a GM get tough and make an example out of an RFA overstepping his position, whether it's through trade or sitting the year. It won't be Dubas though since he's a softie.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Lets hope they can find a middle ground, id gladly toss AJ, Kap, Marleau and Zaitsev overboard to keep marner if it came to that. We'd need a lot of cheap vets/ELC but babcock seemed to insinuate next season Korshkov and Mikhayev (must have butchered that spelling) will be fighting for a spot on the team. On D we have Rosen/Borgman right now and Liljegren and Sandin aren't too far off

Agreed, I really dont see Marner going anywhere, I think Dubas will likely overpay him a bit rather than trading him etc.

 

[MyBudJT]

An argument could be made that Karlsson is the best RD in the league. The last half of the season and playoffs he was phenomenal and basically looked to be back in norris form. I’m a Marner fan but he’s not the best RW in the league but he’s definitely upper echelon. Also RD is probably the most sought after position in the league and imho is more valuable then a RW. I don’t feel Karlsson is a good comparable to Marner for contract talks.

Karlsson has been the most overrated D for quite a while, just my opinion.

 

[4thline]

I wouldn't underestimate owners willingness to collude together to suppress salaries.

That's where B comes in. Owner's will pay for what they value, and if they recognize the superior on ice contributions of mid 20's talent that's where the dollars will go.

It's a finite pie, and teams have shown nothing but a complete willingness to shell out money to the big guns. Big names draw crowds, and the TSN/Draft generation have turned RFA's into the big names.

 

[Walshy7]

Agreed, I really dont see Marner going anywhere, I think Dubas will likely overpay him a bit rather than trading him etc.

this is the important part, a bit overpay is fine (ie: Nylander is max $500K overpaid) but if we are talking $1M+ overpay walkaway

 

[Nithoniniel]

Any thoughts? I'm just looking for consistency.

It's pretty simple. If you go through ELC as a 0.72 PPG player over a big sample size, you've earned a contract in line with what other players who did that. If you're a 0.54 PPG player with a breakthrough season, you've earned a contract in line with others like that. And if you are a .92 PPG player, you've earned a contract similar to other players like that.

That's all there is to it.

---

As to your other point, I'll let Mavis answer that.

 

[ToneDog]

Lets hope they can find a middle ground, id gladly toss AJ, Kap, Marleau and Zaitsev overboard to keep marner if it came to that. We'd need a lot of cheap vets/ELC but babcock seemed to insinuate next season Korshkov and Mikhayev (must have butchered that spelling) will be fighting for a spot on the team. On D we have Rosen/Borgman right now and Liljegren and Sandin aren't too far off

Would you be willing to throw Willie overboard if that is what it takes?

 

[Walshy7]

Would you be willing to throw Willie overboard if that is what it takes?

sure. depends on the overpay of marner though. Out of principal I don't want an $11M+ winger if signing marner to $10M-10.5M means we must trade nylander, go for it. Pretty disappointing time to trade him though at this lowest value point, wont get anything close to as good back for him as we should.

Lets say Kap and AJ = $7M in cap together, id trade them both and keep nylander though

 

[ToneDog]

this is the important part, a bit overpay is fine (ie: Nylander is max $500K overpaid) but if we are talking $1M+ overpay walkaway

So you do not sign Mitch for $10,5 if his marker value is $9.5 ?? 10% seems to be be what Dubas is overpaying these days.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Only if they don't employ the cap savings in addition to the 4 firsts. Keep one pick and trade three for a D man, and sign Panarin = game changing home run for the club. They need to spend the millions they won't pay him and deal most or all of the picks because the draft choices will do nothing to help the club in the next few years and are a lot more valuable to a rebuilding club. Would the Jets accept 4 first for Trouba?

If the leafs get offersheet and Marner accepts then the offersheet wars have started so I would be looking at an RFA defender who you could grab for say 5 years x 6.8-8.4 million dollar range. Only have to give up 1st, 2nd and 3rd for example. That offersheet target could be trouba or even go for smaller targets like Zadarov, Ryan Murray, Ceci etc.