Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[HoweHullOrr]

Side A: If you let Marner walk and then use that $10 mil to resign RFAs in AJ and Kapanen and bring back UFA Hainsey and have accumulated a bunch of unknown draft picks in the future does that really help the Leafs in the present?

Side B: If you match the offersheet and keep Marner (within reason), and let Hainsey walk and you deal AJ and Kapanen for a pair of draft picks because of cap issues and does that help the Leafs more in the present?

That is really the 2 sides of the overall equation where the clear majority would fall on the Side B option of the equation. IMO

This is a false dichotomy if I've ever seen one

False dichotomy, false premise, just all kinds of false.

OK, sounds interesting, but maybe expand a bit with a little more detail?

I'd think we'd all agree there's more details and things that could happen, but what do folks think will happen that would radically change the outcome? It's a question & a discussion.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Who is the Leonard they are obtaining in your example?

Trouba or Jones or Doughty or someone of that nature, plus toughness or sandpaper, etc.

 

[Mess]

Wow. No offense...but there is more than just side A or B here..

Side C is more like take the 4 1st rounders because if Marner actually signs the offersheet then he's dead to me... I'll take the cap saving the picks.. plus the cap savings from the ziestev and marleau trades.... Use that to resign Aj and Kap to reasonable deals then either trade or free agent signing to shore up the D and the opening left from Marner. I'll be sad he chose to leave but excited we have a lot of future picks and we are still contenders.... And f***. Hainsey he can walk.

It really doesn't have to be that complicated..

This really comes down to a binary decision point, and that is do you think you have a better chance of winning the Cup with or without Marner? Its really that simple !!

All the rest is hypothetical with no guarantees of playing out as you've suggested. What if you need to start including a comp 1st with Marleau just to get rid of him? What if you can't trade Zaitsev or if the player coming back makes same or more than him? What are reasonable deals for Kapanen and AJ etc etc. Endless possibilities and questions when dealing in hypotheticals, most of which never turn out as planned.

The cap space recaptured by letting Marner walk would most likely simply be reinvested in the remaining team bringing back Gardiner perhaps, and resigning your own RFAs and then all you have is last years team without Marner, and a bunch of future unknown draft picks some of those picks being 3 & 4 years down the road from today, and part of completely different compete window than the current one.

So instead of giving Marner his +$10 mil X 5-6 years you resign Gardiner for $6 mil X 5 and Kapanen for $4 mil X 6 and there goes that cap space.

 

[ACC1224]

Trouba or Jones or Doughty or someone of that nature, plus toughness or sandpaper, etc.

That's not really the same.
The Raptors received a far better player while the Leafs will be giving up the far better player.
(Jones isn't a realistic target, IMO)

 

[Stamkos4life]

Honestly just sick of these kids. Imagine going back in time and trying to cheer yourself up watching the Kessel - Phaneuf Leafs and saying don't worry.. In a few years time you'll have a core that is good enough to win with... But they'll demand so much money you can't ever put a winning team around them, and none of them have won anything major individual awards either.

Matthews, ok he is from Arizona and doesn't care about Toronto. Nylander I see it too. But Marner? All because of his ego? He can go **** himself to be honest. I hope he gets dealt to somewhere where he misses the playoffs every year of his contract.

Agree with your first part but maybe wait until marner actually signs before you start attacking him? What if he ends up signing a team friendly deal?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Trouba or Jones or Doughty or someone of that nature, plus toughness or sandpaper, etc.

Trouba is going to a eastern U.S. based NHL team based (or if) on articles that have been published. So, what are the odds that Jones or Doughty are moved?

 

[Nithoniniel]

This seems like a very simplistic view.

It's how contracts work. And I think you evaluate whether contracts are good on how they stack up to contracts given to similar players, not compared to how I wish contract negotiations worked. You seem to ask for a formula for how these things are calculated, and there is none. There's just the market.

Ps you're the one who said we are paying based on what they have proven. It's clearly not true.

It is. Nylander is paid slightly less than $7M. His ten closest comparables got contracts valued at average just above that. Matthews got paid more than the Stamkos tier and less than the Malkin tier, which is where he ends up if you control for things that you must when dealing with vastly different contextual situations.

 

[Walshy7]

That's not really the same.
The Raptors received a far better player while the Leafs will be giving up the far better player.
(Jones isn't a realistic target, IMO)

losing pannarin and replacing him with marner, its not implausible but at the cost of Jones? yeah probably pretty unrealistic. I guess it depends on how much they value offensive game breakers, if they believe their D can survive without jones if they add marner it could happen.

Id do marner for jones.

I would not do marner for doughty as another poster suggested not a chance in hell

 

[HoweHullOrr]

It's how contracts work. And I think you evaluate whether contracts are good on how they stack up to contracts given to similar players, not compared to how I wish contract negotiations worked. You seem to ask for a formula for how these things are calculated, and there is none. There's just the market.

It is. Nylander is paid slightly less than $7M. His ten closest comparables got contracts valued at average just above that. Matthews got paid more than the Stamkos tier and less than the Malkin tier, which is where he ends up if you control for things that you must when dealing with vastly different contextual situations.

If we are talking about what HF (Leaf) posters thought, most had Nylander & Matthews signing for a little less and for more term, no? Is that another "reality"?

And, given our recent signings (2 of the "big 3"), did we not some changes on how RFAs signings are being paid now versus before? Is there a trend now that could be different?

Debate & discussion focus.

 

[Bomber0104]

Ya someone posted that only 4 teams have made the playoffs every year the past 4 year so statistically one pick should be a lottery pick.

However if a team like Boston, Avs, Blues etc offerhseet marner vs a team like NJD, Buffalo, Arizona etc I think you can assume which team picks will likely be higher.

Ya I really doubt there will be an offersheet, seems like it is being used as a pretext to justify an overpayment, kind of like with Matthews. I'm guessing he signs in Toronto and is overpaid pretty badly in comparison to other wingers.

Not so.

15 teams (16 if you include Las Vegas) have gone without a single lottery pick for the past 4 consecutive drafts.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Not so.

12 teams have gone without a single lottery pick for the past 4 consecutive drafts and that's soon to be 5 barring any unforeseen trade.

Which 12 teams? Also what are you defining as a lottery pick?

 

[Bomber0104]

Which 12 teams? Also what are you defining as a lottery pick?

Anaheim, St Louis, Tampa Bay, Nashville, New York (Islanders), New York (Rangers), Chicago, Los Angeles, Washington, Minnesota, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Calgary, Boston, San Jose, and if you're counting Las Vegas that would be a 16th team over the past 4 drafts. I omitted them because they only have 2 seasons of result thus far.

A lottery pick is a top-5 selection...

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I can't believe how many people think we might miss the playoffs next year. Y'all will be shocked at how well this team will do without Babcock.

Is this real life? Can I actually dream that will happen?

 

[diceman934]

If Dubas fumbles and turns the ball over here it could be catastrophic.

He should be fired if hr fails to get him signed.

 

[Walshy7]

Not so.

15 teams (16 if you include Las Vegas) have gone without a single lottery pick for the past 4 consecutive drafts.

I think the poster you replied to is referring to a lottery pick as a pick that is in with a shot of winning the lottery not necessarily winning it. Which is the truth any team that misses the playoff can win the lottery

 

[Bigmarycombo]

Easy, you trade Marner if he wants an 8 figure AAV. He finished 34 points behind another winger who has a $9.5 AAV, and has scored 40, 39, and 41 goals the past 3 seasons.

You don’t trade marner you pay your best players

You trade lesser players like Nylander

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Sorry for the late reply, had a very busy weekend.

I don't think players get deducted salary due to entire team failure. But do you think players are not rewarded for having a good post season?

Malkin's 22 points > Matthews' 6 points.

Malkin had 85 points in 78 games during his rookie season. Auston had 69.

Malkin had 106 points his 2nd season and came 2nd in league scoring. Matthews had 63 points in 62 games and his ppg would've had him at around ~15th in points..

Matthew's 3rd season he finished with 73 points in 68 games. His ppg would've had him at around ~15th again.

Malkin's 2nd season trumps Austin's first 3 seasons and it isnt even close!

When you take into account Malkin's post season > Matthews post season and 106 points, 2nd in league scoring >> 73 points in 68 games, auston should not be paid 14.63% of the cap.

We are paying matthews based on g/60 and p/60 instead of actual production. Which was my original point. We do not pay based on what they have proven. We hope auston can continue his pace as he gets more ice time but that is not a given. More likely his pace will regress as he gets more fatigued.

I could make a poll if you dont believe me but the majority would say Malkin's first 2 seasons >> matthews' first 3 seasons and the pay should reflect that.

You know by now my thoughts on what “actual production” is, and ice time is important imo. So no reason to go there.

You don’t pay a player based on how they produced in the past, you pay based on how you think they’ll perform when you put them on the ice for the duration of the contract. The whole “he’s a playoff performer” mantra is a classic fallacy on judging a player. I don’t put any stock in very small samples.

I bet the vast majority of fans prefer total points in a season so I’m not sure why you want a poll. But those who are interested in being accurate and not just fuming their frustrations on the internet will be looking at scoring rates.

 

[Bomber0104]

I think the poster you replied to is referring to a lottery pick as a pick that is in with a shot of winning the lottery not necessarily winning it. Which is the truth any team that misses the playoff can win the lottery

What matters is what actually happens.

If you look at the top-15 teams in the league in 2014/15, their following 4 years of drafts only saw them collect 8 of the available 20 top-five selections in the draft with their own firsts. And that's including Ottawa's conditional 1st that they haphazardly traded to the Avalanche.

	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19
New York Rangers	1	9	9	24	26
Montreal Canadiens	2	22	8	28	14
Anaheim Ducks	3	7	6	9	24
St. Louis Blues	4	3	11	18	12
Tampa Bay Lightning	5	12	16	3	1
Nashville Predators	6	13	17	1	7
Chicago Blackhawks	7	5	3	25	20
Vancouver Canucks	8	28	29	26	23
New York Islanders	9	10	18	22	5
Washington Capitals	10	1	1	7	4
Minnesota Wild	11	17	5	8	21
Detroit Red Wings	12	16	25	27	28
Ottawa Senators	13	19	12	30	31
Winnipeg Jets	14	25	20	2	10
Pittsburgh Penguins	15	4	2	10	9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bolded are eventual top-5 picks.

What this says to me is that if you're a good team, adding a player like Marner to bolster your already-good team may be worth the risk, since it's seems not likely you'll even give up a top-five pick with your four 1st's. And a top-five pick is odds-on the type of pick needed to draft a player of Marner's calibre.

 

[Stamkos4life]

It's how contracts work. And I think you evaluate whether contracts are good on how they stack up to contracts given to similar players, not compared to how I wish contract negotiations worked. You seem to ask for a formula for how these things are calculated, and there is none. There's just the market.


It is. Nylander is paid slightly less than $7M. His ten closest comparables got contracts valued at average just above that. Matthews got paid more than the Stamkos tier and less than the Malkin tier, which is where he ends up if you control for things that you must when dealing with vastly different contextual situations.

Are you really going to avoid my question about whether or not you agree marner is worth 10-11 mil? You're better then that.

It's simple. If you honestly think nylander is worth ~2.75 mil more than arvidsson, then you should have no issue with marner at 10-11mil.

If you cant answer my question then I guess our conversation is done.

 

[Walshy7]

What matters is what actually happens.

If you look at the top-15 teams in the league in 2014/15, their following 4 years of drafts only saw them collect 8 of the available 20 top-five selections in the draft with their own firsts. And that's including Ottawa's conditional 1st that they haphazardly traded to the Avalanche.

	2014/15	2015/16	2016/17	2017/18	2018/19
New York Rangers	1	9	9	24	26
Montreal Canadiens	2	22	8	28	14
Anaheim Ducks	3	7	6	9	24
St. Louis Blues	4	3	11	18	12
Tampa Bay Lightning	5	12	16	3	1
Nashville Predators	6	13	17	1	7
Chicago Blackhawks	7	5	3	25	20
Vancouver Canucks	8	28	29	26	23
New York Islanders	9	10	18	22	5
Washington Capitals	10	1	1	7	4
Minnesota Wild	11	17	5	8	21
Detroit Red Wings	12	16	25	27	28
Ottawa Senators	13	19	12	30	31
Winnipeg Jets	14	25	20	2	10
Pittsburgh Penguins	15	4	2	10	9

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Bolded are eventual top-5 picks.

What this says to me is that if you're a good team, adding a player like Marner to bolster your already-good team may be worth the risk, since it's seems not likely you'll even give up a top-five pick with your four 1st's. And a top-five pick is odds-on the type of pick needed to draft a player of Marner's calibre.

same draft as marner

Rantanen was pick 10
Aho 35
Point 79 (2014) draft

all 3 are RFA's like marner and are similar too marner.

Point as 1 60 point season 1 90 point season compared to marners 2 60 point seasons 1 90 point season
rantanen has 2 80 points seasons including one with 30 goals.

All of that isn't the point, people posting about how the 4 1st round picks will be late picks and that's why we shouldn't do it. They wont be late picks all 4 of them because only 4 teams have made the playoffs 4 years in a row the last 4 seasons. Nobody is posting about how one of the picks could be marner, they are posting that the picks aren't all likely to be pick 20 or later. 4 1st round picks traded would bring back a hell of a dman

 

[HolyCrap]

He should be fired if hr fails to get him signed.

Or traded. It’s not Dubas fault Marner is greedy.

 

[Bomber0104]

same draft as marner

Rantanen was pick 10
Aho 35
Point 79 (2014) draft

all 3 are RFA's like marner and are similar too marner.

Point as 1 60 point season 1 90 point season compared to marners 2 60 point seasons 1 90 point season
rantanen has 2 80 points seasons including one with 30 goals.

All of that isn't the point, people posting about how the 4 1st round picks will be late picks and that's why we shouldn't do it. They wont be late picks all 4 of them because only 4 teams have made the playoffs 4 years in a row the last 4 seasons. Nobody is posting about how one of the picks could be marner, they are posting that the picks aren't all likely to be pick 20 or later. 4 1st round picks traded would bring back a hell of a dman

But you're only guessing that. I know what I'm getting with Marner. I don't know what I'm getting with 4 1st round picks.

Which is why you look at stats to get a clearer picture of what is likely to happen, not just what you want to happen. If a good-to-great team offers 4 1st round picks, the likelihood they net us a player of replacement quality to Marner is evidently low.

Bringing up exceptions and statistical aberrations doesn't change that either.

 

[Kiwi]

You don’t trade marner you pay your best players

You trade lesser players like Nylander

Holy hell, the way things are going Marner's new contract is going to make Nylander's deal look positively team friendly

It's beyond stupid to trade one overpaid player who's value is in the toilet right now so we can significantly overpay a different guy, just think about that for a second

He should be fired if hr fails to get him signed.

Depends on what Marner is asking for, if Marner wants 12.5M (which I'm doubtful of) i'd fire Dubas if he did sign Marner to that

 

[Walshy7]

But you're only guessing that.

I know what I'm getting with Marner. I don't know what I'm getting with 4 1st round picks.

Which is why you look at stats to get a clearer picture of what is likely to happen, not just what you want to happen. If a good-to-great team offers 4 1st round picks, the likelihood they net us a player of replacement quality is evidently quite low.

Bringing up exceptions and statistical aberrations doesn't change that either.

that's not the point. The point the other poster was making that it is more likely that the "good team" wont make the playoffs 4 years in a row. That is all, nothing about being as good as marner at all. Nobody has said "with one of those 4 picks we could get a marner".

Again there is nothing stopping us offering 4 1st round picks for a dman is there? that dman would be pretty f***ing good

Statistical aberrations? 4 teams out of 31 have been in the playoffs in all of the last 4 years.

 

[Kiwi]

It's increadable, the same people that were going crazy about overpaying Nylander now want to give Marner a blank check
Comparables be damned