Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[The Apologist]

Is McDavid and Eichel injury prone ?

Both played 209 in ELC, Matthews played 212.

Is that an honest question? Eichel is most definitely injury prone. I would say McDavid is too which makes what he has done even more impressive.

 

[The Apologist]

He was arguably the Leafs best player in the first round of the playoffs last year against Boston.

I would agree with this.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Really hope that Marner paid attention to the Nylander situation, and how the large parts of fanbase (and media) have turned on Nylander and vilified him.

It's pretty easy to see that we're on this path in these threads already.

Marner could at least make himself look better by signing a deal sooner.

I'm torn. I just don't know if the Marner ask in the media 11.5 + is accurate. Id have a hard time giving Marner anything over 9.5

And look around at recent signings and loose the "rookie GM" crap ( not directed at you)
I'll be the first to criticize Dubas but I want to see how this plays out first

 

[BertCorbeau]

I'm torn. I just don't know if the Marner ask in the media 11.5 + is accurate. Id have a hard time giving Marner anything over 9.5

And look around at recent signings and loose the "rookie GM" crap ( not directed at you)
I'll be the first to criticize Dubas but I want to see how this plays out first

I fully expect a contract in the $10.5-$11 AAV range. Hopefully it's for 7-8 years, but I bet it's like 5-6.

Haven't been a fan of how Dubas has handled these negotiations but at the end of the days it's not the end of the world to pay your stars. He just has to compensate in other ways in order to stay competitive under the cap.

 

[Trapper]

I'm torn. I just don't know if the Marner ask in the media 11.5 + is accurate. Id have a hard time giving Marner anything over 9.5

And look around at recent signings and loose the "rookie GM" crap ( not directed at you)
I'll be the first to criticize Dubas but I want to see how this plays out first

I think after the Skinner 9 mil signing, having Marner at 10-10.5 is probably what happens.
It looks to be set up that way.
Matthews - 11.634 (5 years)
Tavares - 11 (6 left)
Marner - 10/10.5 (needs to be 8 for this. 5 years would be a fail IMO)
Nylander - 6.96 (5 left)

 

[BertCorbeau]

I wonder if term is holding this deal up more than anything. I would imagine Dubas is pushing for 8 years, but Marner's camp would want the higher AAV (as reported $12.5)

 

[18leafsfan18]

Didn't both only have one injury? Matthews has had 4 or 5 now....

He still played more games in the first 3 years. Injury prone would mean he misses more then the average amount.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Is that an honest question? Eichel is most definitely injury prone. I would say McDavid is too which makes what he has done even more impressive.

Yeah I guess just every single player is injury prone in your opinion

 

[18leafsfan18]

Plays with tougher competition and is more versatile. No he is above his level

Played with a elite C this year while Matthews played with players who are at best 2nd line players, more likely 3rd line players.

Believe what you want, goal scoring and C are paid more in the NHL. Matthews is a way better goal scorer and plays C.

 

[Notsince67]

Played with a elite C this year while Matthews played with players who are at best 2nd line players, more likely 3rd line players.

Believe what you want, goal scoring and C are paid more in the NHL. Matthews is a way better goal scorer and plays C.

Can u keep the story straight? I was responding ti the comment that Matthews is at a different level. How is this relevant?

 

[nuck]

Matthews is great when motivated. He started the season using his body, driving and scoring like nobody else while tenders were feeling out the equipment changes. He let it on the line, he got injured for the 3rd straight year. He came back, he was not the same, again. The first year injury was known, he did not miss time. If you adjust for the equipment changes the past two years, he has been a pt per game guy. It's good, not like McDavid though. I doubt he will be in the hunt for top 3 in pts over a full season. Great goal scorer though so full marks there.

He really got derailed by his injuries. He plays different coming back, if not a bit scared then at least least less in the dirty areas. .I wish he could have managed a full 80 games again before they threw open the bank, but KD is paying for a 100pt guy and it would have been reasonable to dial the money back a bit given the fact he finished well below a 90pt pace, took a relatively short deal but still got the NT the last season(why???), and got front loading that only a few teams in the league would have offered. Does Dubas lie awake at night shivering in fear of offer sheets because that is not really an RFA contract?

I don't know the Dubster will be able to reign in team Marner as he hasn't shown that ability yet, but he can't keep losing on these deals because $500k here and a$1M there long term adds up. Maybe Shanny needs to lend him some sack for the Marner negotiation but who here thinks both Nylander and Matthews weren't Shanahan approved deals? Maybe Dubas isn't the the one with the soft spine at all. The correct message, if so, was for Shanny to let Willie sit for the season. I hope he thinks about that a lot.

When Gord Miller says "random anonymous GMs say they would pay $11M for Marner", I believe there is truth to that. Twenty teams in the league don't really have a real impact forward so they might well pay that because they have no other expensive stars so you do what must be done to fill the spot since you have both the need and the cap space. Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Colorado would not be clubs that said $11M of course and I haven't seen anywhere that these invisible executives would pay $11M plus the 4 firsts, nor that their clubs would actually have the money to do that.. It's possible that some have-not clubs would pay the tab, but it means the player going to a weaker team, maybe no playoffs, and being with a center who is a peg or two below JT, plus have the savior role dropped on them because of the cost. Just because someone, somewhere, would drop their pants on a deal doesn't make that market value, or a good place to go.

I think its important that Marner sees what is out there, the clubs that are interested in him, and makes an educated decision based on that information rather than what his parents are telling him. Equally important is the Leafs courtship of Panarin, because if they can be signed for remotely similar money I will take Panarin and the picks every time. Of course if the bread man is out, you have Duchene and thats about it, so it isn't like "we lose Mitch but look at his replacement." There is obviously huge value to the cap savings and no Marner does mean room for Karlsson for instance. I am not advocating any path here except you don't pay $11M for a 26 goal forward and a healthy EK is easily fair value so it isn't either over-pay Mitch and succeed or lose him and fail. A few different potential positive outcomes are out there. Here is where Kyle Dubas earns his paycheque.

 

[The CyNick]

Really hope that Marner paid attention to the Nylander situation, and how the large parts of fanbase (and media) have turned on Nylander and vilified him.

It's pretty easy to see that we're on this path in these threads already.

Marner could at least make himself look better by signing a deal sooner.

Do you honestly think these guys care what simple fans think about them?

 

[yubbers]

Mitch is gonna ride JTs coat tails right outta town. This is Willy all over again. Yeah... He's good with an elite center. So was Connor Brown

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Mitch is gonna ride JTs coat tails right outta town. This is Willy all over again. Yeah... He's good with an elite center. So was Connor Brown

What a terrible take lmfao

 

[yubbers]

What a terrible take lmfao

Baseless statements are fun

 

[Hischier and Hughes]

Baseless statements are fun

Keep talking about Connor Brown when discussing Marner lmfaoo

If you think Marner road Tavares’ coattails you watched maybe five games

 

[yubbers]

Keep talking about Connor Brown when discussing Marner lmfaoo

If you think Marner road Tavares’ coattails you watched maybe five games

An example of how a player can look much better than they are with an elite center man. Same with Willy. I'm not comparing Brown to Marner but you knew that already

 

[yubbers]

Keep talking about Connor Brown when discussing Marner lmfaoo

If you think Marner road Tavares’ coattails you watched maybe five games

So Mitch having a 20 point increase and playing with JT is a coincidence is what you're saying? I don't think many would agree with that.

 

[The CyNick]

Keep talking about Connor Brown when discussing Marner lmfaoo

If you think Marner road Tavares’ coattails you watched maybe five games

Tavares is a beast, and as a unit they are excellent. But yeah if you watched games you see that Tavares scored a ton of goals where he got a sick pass fed to him by marner and he just shovelled it in the net.

 

[yubbers]

Tavares is a beast, and as a unit they are excellent. But yeah if you watched games you see that Tavares scored a ton of goals where he got a sick pass fed to him by marner and he just shovelled it in the net.

And that's fair. Elite players tend to find a way to get open :p

 

[Brown Dog]

The attitude of these players really perplexes me. You work all your life to get to this level and what was it for? Just to make as much money as you possibly can? Even if in the process it means your team will have a much harder time competing for a championship? These guys have won nothing. Not even one round. It's weird.

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

The attitude of these players really perplexes me. You work all your life to get to this level and what was it for? Just to make as much money as you possibly can? Even if in the process it means your team will have a much harder time competing for a championship? These guys have won nothing. Not even one round. It's weird.

What's more amazing is how many fans support this nonsense. The BS that somehow future potential is now the way contracts are negotiated. Stop paying lip service to the notion of a real team culture and start making character a determining factor as to whether a player sticks around or not.

 

[diceman934]

It’s not setting a new market though. Why are you asking 12.5M exactly? The salary cap is way up from recent years. Shouldn’t we be looking at cap%?

How many players have scored more points than Marner by their U22 year? You can’t replace a Marner with mid 1st round draft picks.



Again, how many players have scored 94 points by their U22 season in the last 25 yers?



I think you’ve got me blocked and probably won’t respond , but:

Doesn’t this kind of prove his PP production is ‘down’? Marner now is much improved from his career average. You’d expect his production to be higher, no?

His pp numbers were down averaging out 3 years and then saying it was about normal is laughable. All Nylander fans are the same. It is irritating to discuss things in any logical way as they are all afraid to admit they were wrong about who is clearly the better player.

 

[Duffman955]

If I'm dubas, I'm not giving Marner more than 10.

Let the offersheets or whatever come in

 

[diceman934]

It is noteworthy that this time last year people (mostly the same) were taking little jabs at Marner as the PP "specialist" and now this year his impressive 5 v 5 numbers were compensating for his below average PP production.

Deal gets done, and it will be an over payment. Dubas dollars.

His contract will be based in internal cap structure.