Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[The Hanging Jowl]

Kucherov put up 128 points finished 2nd in NHL scoring and plays wing and resigned for 8 years @ $9.5 mil as a UFA ..

UFAs generally make more than RFA, because the market supply and demand dictate salary as UFAs, where RFAs are cost controllable without the market setting their price, their own team sets their value.

If what you say is true than Marner should make < Kucherov based on points and based on RFA vs UFA contract. If Marner were in TB he couldn't demand more than Kucherov, and in fact it would be hard to argue he would make more than Stamkos 8 X $8.5 mil who put up 45 goals and 98 points.

So try and explain why Marner is seeking > $10 mil on a shorter term deal and you will soon realize that its his teammates Matthews @$11.634 and Tavares @ $11 mil that are his comparables because he lead the Leafs in scoring and so statistically he is just as valuable to the Leafs team as his own teammates and puts himself at their level so he feels he also deserves to be rewarded financially similar.

In Marner's case his agent Darren Ferris will claim not only is Mitch as valuable but in fact he helped validate JT contract, because he is directly responsible for many of the JT goals and his setting new personal best marks. Tavares put up 47 goals and 88 points for $11 mil and Marner put up 94 points.

There is no contradiction here at all.

You're right with all of this (except Tavares due to the UFA factor) but the easy retort is, just because Matthews was overpaid doesn't mean they have to continue with the mistakes. Time to draw a line in the sand or this team will be rebuilding again in 3 years.

What do you think Kapannen will want when he sees them folding on Marner's demands vs. them taking a stand? I see it as the difference between $4M and $2.5M and the domino effect still continue. Time to stop this is now.

 

[Mess]

You clearly state that Marner's contract will be based on his own team comparables (which the players aren't even comparable), He compares to Nylander more then Matthews and Tavares.

You also clearly state that other RFAs contracts will be based on Marner's.

How is this not a contradiction ?

Another one: You say Marner will be paid top dollar by Leafs and all other RFAs will settle for less to where it fits the team.

How is this not a contradiction ?

I also said last summer right after the Leafs signed Tavares that his contract will act like a magnet and pull all the other Leafs salaries up to his because of both on and off ice reasons.

Predicting the impact on the Leafs internal salary structure would be;

Matthews @ ~$12 mil
Tavares @ ~$11 mil
Marner @ ~$10 mil

All before JT even stepped on the ice, for the exact reasons I have been describing. Expecting Matthews to come in above JT and Marner to fall just below, allowing for slight adjustments for position in Marner's case vs his teammates that are both #1C.

Lets have Marner sign his $10.5 mil contract or perhaps more via offersheet and you will see there are no contradictions.

 

[IPS]

I find it weird there was no resistance to whatever contract was needed to be signed for Matthews, and now there is this urge to hunker down and draw a line with Marner, who I think is the team's most talented and arguably best player.

Because when you're looking to pay a superstar center who's the best 5v5 goal scorer in the league (and a real case for being the best goal scorer in the league period if the coach of the team wasn't a complete moron), you don't really have breathing room for bringing in genuine comparable to the negotiation.

We don't have this problem for Marner. There's Point, Rantanen, and Aho who are all out there and had similar seasons / ELC years to Marner. Marner's camp knows this, which is why they've done some ridiculously infuriating things to try and pressure the Leafs management into a blatant overpayment before July 1st.

They are well aware that if one of those 3 guys signs, they lose a lot of ground in negotiation. You're gonna look real stupid demanding $12.5 x 8 if Rantanen signs for say $10.5 x 8 or something like that.

And as far as this offer sheet thing goes, I'm legitimately convinced it doesn't exist. I can't think of a single management group around the league who's incompetent enough to give up their 1st for 4 years just to overpay Marner by ~$3M... It baffles me how people on this board just cannot understand the logistics behind it. That is the type of move that can easily cripple a franchise. Nobody takes those risks.

 

[Madap]

Marner is 1st line ES, PP1, PK1, and led the team in points.

Other than being a centre, I don't get the case for Auston or JT for that matter being more valuable.

I believe matthews was more reliant on PP points and goals than marner.

Well, being a centre is a more valuable position and you can't just dismiss that. But even ignoring that, how about goals? Both Matthews and Tavares are similar in points to Marner, yet score far more goals than he does. Considering Matthews didn't play with an elite player on his wing this season, it's quite easy to see for any objective person to see why he's a better player and more valuable.

Tavares is in a similar situation. He probably is slightly overpaid (10.5 would have been better) but that's the price of signing a UFA when other teams are chasing him as well. I mean really, I don't get the case for anyone thinking Marner is more valuable.

 

[hamzarocks]

I agree, which was debated in the nyladner siging threads about dreger saying Nylander wanted $8.5. At that time said claimed he was a legit source and people disagreeing he has info were basically "blocking their ears and going lalala" so either he talks **** or we have to pay attention to his comments about marner.

I now and then believe/d Dreger doesn't know what he is talking about

That's fair. The nylander negotiations were so long and drawn out people started to get fed up with his side and started to simply label him as selfish and entitled. He may have been a bit greedy(like Matthews, Marner, etc are and will be) but Dubas also let that process drag out way too long. I was sour on nylander the entire year as well as he cost himself a year of his prime and reduced his percetion around the league(as well as being way below par for the expected value you would thing nylander would provide to the leafs in his D+5 season).

Even despite that I have to admire that he never once was reported to negotiating with other teams. Based on Dregers tweet on Marner, RFA's are allowed to reach out to teams and discuss potential deals(I didnt know this to be the case thought teams had to come to you). Nylander had an opportunity to leave the organization if this is the case and surely could have gotten a team to give him his current deal or a slightly better deal via OS. He would either get to join a new org or see himself back on the leafs with a favourable deal. Instead he sits out but doesnt try and negotiate with other teams. Of the Big 3 he may genuinely be the one who wanted to be a leaf the most or was the one who was willing to wait/sacrifice the most to stay with the club. If marner actually uses OS as a tactic to get a big offer I'll lose so much respect for him. Hes my favourite player but if he cant work out a deal with the leafs than either take a bridge or sit put a year(assuming Dubas wont trade you).

 

[Notsince67]

This thread is heading towards
very "hfboardy" territory when folks are theorizing trading a 1C in order to make a winger the highest paid player in the NHL

You get all huffy when people say that Marner has the skills to play center even though he isnt a center yet you tag Matthews as the leafs #1 center when he is clearly the #2.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I also said last summer right after the Leafs signed Tavares that his contract will act like a magnet and pull all the other Leafs salaries up to his because of both on and off ice reasons.

Predicting the impact on the Leafs internal salary structure would be;

Matthews @ ~$12 mil
Tavares @ ~$11 mil
Marner @ ~$10 mil

All before JT even stepped on the ice, for the exact reasons I have been describing. Expecting Matthews to come in above JT and Marner to fall just below, allowing for slight adjustments for position in Marner's case vs his teammates that are both #1C.

Lets have Marner sign his $10.5 mil contract or perhaps more via offersheet and you will see there are no contradictions.

Maybe Matthews was paid that based on his comparables. Not based on JT.

Same thing will happen with Marner, he will be paid based on comparables (Actual comparables).

If Marner gets 10-10.5 it's the exact opposite of proving you point. JT makes 11 and Matthews makes 11.6.

 

[Walshy7]

That's fair. The nylander negotiations were so long and drawn out people started to get fed up with his side and started to simply label him as selfish and entitled. He may have been a bit greedy(like Matthews, Marner, etc are and will be) but Dubas also let that process drag out way too long. I was sour on nylander the entire year as well as he cost himself a year of his prime and reduced his percetion around the league(as well as being way below par for the expected value you would thing nylander would provide to the leafs in his D+5 season).

Even despite that I have to admire that he never once was reported to negotiating with other teams. Based on Dregers tweet on Marner, RFA's are allowed to reach out to teams and discuss potential deals(I didnt know this to be the case thought teams had to come to you). Nylander had an opportunity to leave the organization if this is the case and surely could have gotten a team to give him his current deal or a slightly better deal via OS. He would either get to join a new org or see himself back on the leafs with a favourable deal. Instead he sits out but doesnt try and negotiate with other teams. Of the Big 3 he may genuinely be the one who wanted to be a leaf the most or was the one who was willing to wait/sacrifice the most to stay with the club. If marner actually uses OS as a tactic to get a big offer I'll lose so much respect for him. Hes my favourite player but if he cant work out a deal with the leafs than either take a bridge or sit put a year(assuming Dubas wont trade you).

good post. It is entirely possible no one wanted to hear Nylanders agent out if he went and spoke around the league, although that surely would have come out like marner apparently doing so has.

If Marner signs an offersheet, especially at the $12.5m, (reported by a montreal nobody I need to add) there is just no world where we can match that

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Marner is 1st line ES, PP1, PK1, and led the team in points.

Other than being a centre, I don't get the case for Auston or JT for that matter being more valuable.

I believe matthews was more reliant on PP points and goals than marner.

Some people value goal production more than assists. Me for instance. I don't care how good the opportunities are, someone has to put the puck in the net and both Matthews and Tavares are elite at it. Marner not so much. If I had to put a number on it, I'd personally say a goal is twice as valuable as an assist from a negotiating point of view.

Nobody talked about making Adam Oates the highest paid playmaker in the league.

 

[IPS]

You get all huffy when people say that Marner has the skills to play center even though he isnt a center yet you tag Matthews as the leafs #1 center when he is clearly the #2.

Matthews is unquestionably better than Tavares. You may need a better eye for evaluating talent my friend.

 

[The CyNick]

Well, being a centre is a more valuable position and you can't just dismiss that. But even ignoring that, how about goals? Both Matthews and Tavares are similar in points to Marner, yet score far more goals than he does. Considering Matthews didn't play with an elite player on his wing this season, it's quite easy to see for any objective person to see why he's a better player and more valuable.

Tavares is in a similar situation. He probably is slightly overpaid (10.5 would have been better) but that's the price of signing a UFA when other teams are chasing him as well. I mean really, I don't get the case for anyone thinking Marner is more valuable.

The JT contract is not being disputed. You expect to overpay to get an elite UFA to switch teams.

Matthews is grossly overpaid based on the term of the deal.

You seemed to say matthews and marner are close in points. One guy was close to 100 and the other guy barely cracked 70.

As for the centre- wing thing. Kane got the same deal as Toews. Who would you rather have today?

And matthews isn't even elite at the position yet. He was a minus player on a team that had one of the best plus minus in the league and he didn't even draw the top defenders or centers most of the season.

I think both guys are superb talents. I want them both here as long ad possible, but this weak narrative that Marner is inferior to matthews has no legs to stand on. Marner is on his way to becoming one of the best 200ft players in the league. Matthews isn't there nor anywhere close.

 

[Walshy7]

You get all huffy when people say that Marner has the skills to play center even though he isnt a center yet you tag Matthews as the leafs #1 center when he is clearly the #2.

#2 this year maybe but before JT clearly #1 so a track record to prove it and 40 goals. Where is Marner's track record at C? half season in the OHL?

 

[Mess]

You're right with all of this (except Tavares due to the UFA factor) but the easy retort is, just because Matthews was overpaid doesn't mean they have to continue with the mistakes. Time to draw a line in the sand or this team will be rebuilding again in 3 years.

What do you think Kapanen will want when he sees them folding on Marner's demands vs. them taking a stand? I see it as the difference between $4M and $2.5M and the domino effect still continue. Time to stop this is now.

Sadly the Genie is out of the bottle in Toronto, and you can't put the tooth paste back in the tube as past precedence by GM actions will result in that trend continuing.

Matthews significant overpayment for only 1 single UFA year purchased on a 5 year deal vs 8 at top dollar has set the set stage for Marner to drive a semi-truck right through that GM overpayment gap.

You're not wrong in thinking 2 wrongs don't make a right or Leafs will be heading down an endless slippery slope if this trend continues, and I agree that poor cap management today will lead to a shorter Cup competitive window with each next bad overpayment.

The problem being Dubas has shown no financial restraint up to now, so what makes you believe anything is about to change now, even though it should or Leafs will be in serious trouble via on the on ice product and its competitiveness?

 

[biotk]

Come on don't be disingenuous, you can't compare what Malkin and Crosby did during their ELC years with Matthews and put them in the same category.

First I all, I wasn't comparing Matthews to them in that post. What I was doing was saying that of the 3 players who signed massive 5 year contracts coming out of their ELCs, all three re-signed for longer term, lower cap hit, and with the same team on their next contract. If you think they are far above Matthews, then in that case even the 3 who were far above him re-signed for longer term, lower cap hit and with the same team.

102, 120, and a 110 point pace Crosby

The only player I would compare to Crosby is McDavid. McDavid signed a very team friendly deal in comparison.

106 and 113 point Malkin. Matthews doesn't compare to these guys.

Matthews absolutely does. Malkin's ELC was D+3 through D+5, but even still he his numbers are inflated by playing a lot with Crosby during his first two seasons, and getting massive PP time.

At 5v5 over his three seasons Malkin averaged 51 points per 82. Matthews was 52. At 5v5 over his first three seasons Malkin averaged 18 goals per 82. Matthews averaged 31.

Matthews has been just as productive when given the same opportunites - and scores a hell of a lot more more goals.

While the number of PP points that Malkin put up is ridiculously more than Matthews has done, that is entirely due to ice time. Matthews has 6.35 P/60 on the PP. Malkin was at 5.59 P/60.

Now Stamkos is a much better comparison. Off his ELC he got 11.66% a far cry from the 14.63% Matthews is getting.

If we discount Stamkos' poor first year (in order to pump up Stamkos' numbers) he still only hits an average of 23 goals and 48 points per 82 games at 5v5 - and that was playing almost exclusively with St. Louis who was an Art Ross winner both before and after. Again, Stamkos gets his points massively inflated due PP time (and again was less productive on the PP: 5.75 P/60).

If Matthews got a fair deal based on a true comparable he would be making 9.65 not 11.5.

The Leafs' think it was a fair deal. I have said from the start that I felt it was a bad deal. I say that not because of comparables - I think that Malkin is the only decent comparable for Matthews - but because the Malkin and Crosby deals left the Pens in a cap position where they couldn't win the cup.

So no, the "incessant moaning" is valid and based off the few comparables from past contracts that we have.

It is incessant moaning - and I said that (and continue to say that) referring to the belief that Matthews' next contract will be huge despite there being no evidence.

Matthews is overpaid based on comparables it's that simple.

It's not. It causes cap issues. But that is not the same thing.

Ferris is right, that Matthews deal is as rich as it gets. Marner is going to be looking for a rich deal too. Only thing is Marner needs to remember he got to play with JT.

I don't have a problem with Marner wishing to get paid as much as he can. If he does get that huge deal, I don't want it to be with Toronto. I felt the same way for Nylander and Matthews. Nylander got paid about 500K per more than I felt he should. Matthews got paid about 500K per more than I felt he should. I wouldn't go a cent over 9x5 for Marner - and that is again paying him about 500K per more than I feel they should. If he demands more than that I personally would trade him. I expect the team will go 10x5 or 6 making him the most overpaid of the 3 despite the Marner groupies thinking he should be overpaid much, much more.

 

[ACC1224]

You get all huffy when people say that Marner has the skills to play center even though he isnt a center yet you tag Matthews as the leafs #1 center when he is clearly the #2.

That was entertaining.

 

[The CyNick]

Some people value goal production more than assists. Me for instance. I don't care how good the opportunities are, someone has to put the puck in the net and both Matthews and Tavares are elite at it. Marner not so much. If I had to put a number on it, I'd personally say a goal is twice as valuable as an assist from a negotiating point of view.

Nobody talked about making Adam Oates the highest paid playmaker in the league.

So Andreychuk should have been up for the Hart instead of Dougie?

Steaming hot take!

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

I get full well why the organization views Matthews as they do. As they should. Big, talented #1 franchise centre. Nothing will convince me though that the contract he was given was a good one for the team, but that's not here nor there right now.

It's moreso the Marner downplaying I'm not understanding. I do believe he is the most talented player on the team, and I can see him leading the team in points just as much as Matthews can/will. It's gone from -- amazingly talented player who is playing for his hometown and favourite team and is a Patty Kane clone who could win Art Rosses, to, his numbers are inflated thanks to his linemate and in no way should he be given anything close to Matthews and Tavares and instead should have Kucherov used as his comparable figure wise. And now this discussion of contemplating entertaining offers for him -- mind...blown...

How do you see Marner making out with, say, Johnson and Gauthier as his linemates? Because that's basically what Matthews was saddled with all last season. Everyone says Marner can drive a line on his own, shouldn't see any drop in production, right? BS.

Tavares got a whopping extra 3 points this season with Marner. Marner's totals went up by 35 points. Not hard to see who benefited who the most in that equation.

If I was GM I'd offer him 1 year at whatever salary Marner demands then put him with a couple of plugs for the season to demonstrate this point to him and his camp.

(Not really, just a thought experiment)

 

[Bigmarycombo]

You guys make me laugh

Marner has led the team in points 2 out of 3 years
In the three years that marner Matthews and Nylander have been in the playoffs marner leads in points
Babcock is now trusting him to kill penalties
Has improved every year.
His even strength point are comparable to Matthews.

Marner will be signed guaranteed Dubas and shanny aren’t stupid like some posters on here are.They know what they have in marner.

You sign your core then cut from there

Our core in terms of importance to the team is

Matthews marner Tavares Reilly Andersen

Every one else can be traded for cap compliance and improving the team.

Does anyone actually think that if point asks for 10 million Tampa will trade him. Don’t be stupid they will trade Callahan jt Miller
Palat etc. Before they lose a core piece like point.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Matthews TOI with:

1. 591:19 ~ Kappy
2. 432:52 ~ Marleau
3. 422:06 ~ Johnsson
4. 266:16 ~ Willie

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

So Andreychuk should have been up for the Hart instead of Dougie?

Steaming hot take!

I mean for your analogy to make sense you'd be claiming Andreychuck is in the class of Matthews or Tavares, so...

 

[Madap]

The JT contract is not being disputed. You expect to overpay to get an elite UFA to switch teams.

Matthews is grossly overpaid based on the term of the deal.

You seemed to say matthews and marner are close in points. One guy was close to 100 and the other guy barely cracked 70.

As for the centre- wing thing. Kane got the same deal as Toews. Who would you rather have today?

And matthews isn't even elite at the position yet. He was a minus player on a team that had one of the best plus minus in the league and he didn't even draw the top defenders or centers most of the season.

I think both guys are superb talents. I want them both here as long ad possible, but this weak narrative that Marner is inferior to matthews has no legs to stand on. Marner is on his way to becoming one of the best 200ft players in the league. Matthews isn't there nor anywhere close.

You're right, I should have said that they have a similar PPG. I think this is the most important. I think Matthews has just been unlucky, and is not necessarily injury prone and so that should not be held against him. Others may disagree.

Kane and Toews have no relevance to this situation as we have no idea if Matthews and Marner will progress the same way as those two. I'd obviously take Kane now in hindsight, but when they were coming up together in Chicago I would have taken Toews.

I don't agree when you say Matthews isn't elite. When he is at his best, I think he's a top 5 forward in the game already. Marner is amazing too at his best, but he is not as dominant and I wouldn't say top 5.

To me, the reason I think this whole Marner vs. Matthews things is even a debate is because Matthews unfortunately wasn't at his best as often as Marner was. It's hard to pin point the exact reason. I hope it was an injury thing, and not because he doesn't have the drive or compete. So if you want to make that argument, that Matthews isn't as consistent, then fine - it's hard to argue. But basing that off a season where he was injured isn't a strong argument to me, and so I'd definitely give the benefit of the doubt to Matthews and say he's a better and more valuable player.

 

[Notsince67]

if marner signs an offershet? the poster I was replying to said we couldn't get a similar talent anywhere well there are 4 RFA's right now of similar talent (some with more than 1 season above 69 points). Again IF marner signs an offersheet at $12.5M? yeah id do it, **** having the highest paid player in the league. Say if we can get ranatanen at $10.5/11M over marner at $12.5?. All extremely hypothetical of course

the last part of my post is pretty important, not sure if your rage induced eyes saw it, "IF MARNER WANTS TO GET TO THAT POINT"

I get it you are willing to let marner take an incredible overpayment for a winger, (being paid McDavid;s contract is an incredible overpayment for a 1D or 1C even).

edit: and then add in all the marner camp leaks too, none of our other RFA's felt the need to negotiate publicly

Any overpayment to Marner is a forgone conclussion. It is already water under the bridge. You cant get toothpaste back into the tube. Dubas already screwed up the contracts of 2 lesser players. The best he can hope for is that his best player doesnt get proportionally overpaid as much.

 

[Notsince67]

Because when you're looking to pay a superstar center who's the best 5v5 goal scorer in the league (and a real case for being the best goal scorer in the league period if the coach of the team wasn't a complete moron), you don't really have breathing room for bringing in genuine comparable to the negotiation.

We don't have this problem for Marner. There's Point, Rantanen, and Aho who are all out there and had similar seasons / ELC years to Marner. Marner's camp knows this, which is why they've done some ridiculously infuriating things to try and pressure the Leafs management into a blatant overpayment before July 1st.

They are well aware that if one of those 3 guys signs, they lose a lot of ground in negotiation. You're gonna look real stupid demanding $12.5 x 8 if Rantanen signs for say $10.5 x 8 or something like that.

And as far as this offer sheet thing goes, I'm legitimately convinced it doesn't exist. I can't think of a single management group around the league who's incompetent enough to give up their 1st for 4 years just to overpay Marner by ~$3M... It baffles me how people on this board just cannot understand the logistics behind it. That is the type of move that can easily cripple a franchise. Nobody takes those risks.

You talk about Rantanen as if he were better yet how would Marner have faired if he got the same PP time and Rantanen? Rantanen isnt anywhere near the player Marner is.

 

[Matthews34]

Kucherov gets paid 9.5 and is the best offensive player in the NHL. Kucherov also plays the wing. So how can Marner's camp justify their demands of demands of 11.5 to 12.5 which is elite centre money??? Marner has done nothing that in the NHL the makes him worthy of being paid like he has. Marner needs to be shown the door. Trade him to a hockey wasteland like Arizona or Florida so he watch the endorsement money fade away much like his chances at winning.

 

[Notsince67]

Matthews is unquestionably better than Tavares. You may need a better eye for evaluating talent my friend.

#1 centers regularly play on the #1 line.