Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part IV

[The CyNick]

Thing I find to be frustrating with the Marner camp is how status driven they seem to be in comparison to Matthews, Nylander, McDavid and they love the celebrity endorsements but seem intent on extracting every last penny in a hostile manner from the organization that best facilitates all of that celebrity flash. I mean, go to the Island. I’m not sure how many Red Bull cans you’ll be on or how many Apple commercials you’ll star in in the Metro NYC area.

There's pros and cons to different markets.

Marner could go play for the ducks or panthers, live in a perfect climate all year round, look for rockets on the beach, and not get bothered by every Joe Six Pack who recognizes him when he's living his life.

Yes, on the flip side he loses a couple bucks in endorsements, but he also gets tax benefits and he's not taking a disrespectful offer. His dignity is probably valuable to him.

 

[The CyNick]

Kucherov put up 128 points finished 2nd in NHL scoring and plays wing and resigned for 8 years @ $9.5 mil as a UFA ..

UFAs generally make more than RFA, because the market supply and demand dictate salary as UFAs, where RFAs are cost controllable without the market setting their price, their own team sets their value.

If what you say is true than Marner should make < Kucherov based on points and based on RFA vs UFA contract. If Marner were in TB he couldn't demand more than Kucherov, and in fact it would be hard to argue he would make more than Stamkos 8 X $8.5 mil who put up 45 goals and 98 points.

So try and explain why Marner is seeking > $10 mil on a shorter term deal and you will soon realize that its his teammates Matthews @$11.634 and Tavares @ $11 mil that are his comparables because he lead the Leafs in scoring and so statistically he is just as valuable to the Leafs team as his own teammates and puts himself at their level so he feels he also deserves to be rewarded financially similar.

In Marner's case his agent Darren Ferris will claim not only is Mitch as valuable but in fact he helped validate JT contract, because he is directly responsible for many of the JT goals and his setting new personal best marks. Tavares put up 47 goals and 88 points for $11 mil and Marner put up 94 points.

There is no contradiction here at all.

100% agree. Great post.

 

[thewave]

Kucherov put up 128 points finished 2nd in NHL scoring and plays wing and resigned for 8 years @ $9.5 mil as a UFA ..

UFAs generally make more than RFA.

If what you say is true than Marner should make < Kucherov based on points and based on RFA vs UFA contract. If Marner were in TB he couldn't demand more than Kucherov, and in fact it would be hard to argue he would make more than Stamkos 8 X $8.5 mil who put up 45 goals and 98 points.

So try and explain why Marner is seeking > $10 mil on a shorter term deal and you will soon realize that its his teammates Matthews @$11.634 and Tavares @ $11 mil that are his comparables because he lead the Leafs in scoring and so statistically he is just as valuable to the Leafs team as his own teammates and puts himself at their level so he feels he also deserves to be rewarded financially similar.

In Marner's case his agent Darren Ferris will claim not only is Mitch as valuable but in fact he helped validate JT contract, because he is directly responsible for many of the JT goals and his setting new personal best marks. Tavares put up 47 goals and 88 points for $11 mil and Marner put up 94 points.

There is no contradiction here at all.

There is all sorts of bizzare reasoning in these threads.

.RFA is worth nothing.
.Increased scoring due to equipment changes not mattering.
.Injuries not factored.
.PO performance.

It all matters except in Toronto where top payout is assumed, anticipated and accepted.

 

[Stephen]

There's pros and cons to different markets.

Marner could go play for the ducks or panthers, live in a perfect climate all year round, look for rockets on the beach, and not get bothered by every Joe Six Pack who recognizes him when he's living his life.

Yes, on the flip side he loses a couple bucks in endorsements, but he also gets tax benefits and he's not taking a disrespectful offer. His dignity is probably valuable to him.

Seems he wants to be in the limelight but he’s also trying to hold it hostage.

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah, re: diatribe over the Matthews contract, publicly mentioning getting slighted in negotiations, no home town discounts, commentary about Patrick Kane money, leaking offer sheet news.

I guess it comes down to perception, doesn't seem hostile to me.

Shanahan was with GM Kyle Dubas in a Tuesday morning huddle with Darren Ferris, principal agent for leading scorer Mitch Marner. Dubas has been on record saying the Marner deal must be settled before the Leafs get around to any other restricted free agents or unrestricted for that matter.
“It was a positive meeting,” Shanahan told a couple of media outlets. “We’re not afraid to tell Mitch we love him and want him. They are our players. You want them to feel they are fairly treated.”

 

[AustrianHockeyfan]

He will be signed, it is not like we are a month into the next season and he is holding out, relax lol

Hm? I am very relaxed, what made you think different?

Getting him long term under 10 would be awesome. I don't see that happening tough.

 

[Walshy7]

So you effectively pay the same thing for worse players. I get it. We can offersheet someone else just so we can get Marner off the team.

if marner signs an offershet? the poster I was replying to said we couldn't get a similar talent anywhere well there are 4 RFA's right now of similar talent (some with more than 1 season above 69 points). Again IF marner signs an offersheet at $12.5M? yeah id do it, f*** having the highest paid player in the league. Say if we can get ranatanen at $10.5/11M over marner at $12.5?. All extremely hypothetical of course

the last part of my post is pretty important, not sure if your rage induced eyes saw it, "IF MARNER WANTS TO GET TO THAT POINT"

I get it you are willing to let marner take an incredible overpayment for a winger, (being paid McDavid;s contract is an incredible overpayment for a 1D or 1C even).

edit: and then add in all the marner camp leaks too, none of our other RFA's felt the need to negotiate publicly

 

[The CyNick]

I think Marner comes in behind Matthews and Tavares. He's definitely the flashiest and most personable player on the team, but the other two are better, more important players right now. Marner will likely eventually surpass Tavares's peak, though.

Marner is 1st line ES, PP1, PK1, and led the team in points.

Other than being a centre, I don't get the case for Auston or JT for that matter being more valuable.

I believe matthews was more reliant on PP points and goals than marner.

 

[Notsince67]

There's a higher chance of Nylander being a 70 point player next season than Marner being a 100 point player. What most likely happens is Nylander goes back to 60ish and Marner's totals fall to the 80s.

Let's not pretend that everything did not go right for Marner and everything did not go wrong for Nylander this season

Good grief. Willy needs around 15% more than a career high that he couldnt match this year from a rate perspective and Marner wont reach 6 % higher than he just achieved. Unbelievable analytics

 

[TheTotalPackage]

Assuming you are referring to there being no resistance from organization to signing Matthews to that contract, I would suggest that the organization completely disagrees with you over who is the team's most talented and best player. Matthews is a big center who has put up big numbers with poor linemates. Marner isn't and hasn't.

I don't care about Marner's 94 points while playing with Tavares. Tavares has always boosted his linemates' numbers. Everyone knows this, and everyone said that the Leafs should have signed Marner last summer because everyone knows his numbers were going to go way up playing with Tavares. But at the same time, many of those same people think that the Leafs should not take into account that Marner's numbers are inflated when it comes to contract negotiations. I don't expect Marner to top 94 points again any time soon. Kane didn't top his year 3 numbers until his 9th season. Eric Staal and Renberg never came close to matching their numbers from when they were 21.

I get full well why the organization views Matthews as they do. As they should. Big, talented #1 franchise centre. Nothing will convince me though that the contract he was given was a good one for the team, but that's not here nor there right now.

It's moreso the Marner downplaying I'm not understanding. I do believe he is the most talented player on the team, and I can see him leading the team in points just as much as Matthews can/will. It's gone from -- amazingly talented player who is playing for his hometown and favourite team and is a Patty Kane clone who could win Art Rosses, to, his numbers are inflated thanks to his linemate and in no way should he be given anything close to Matthews and Tavares and instead should have Kucherov used as his comparable figure wise. And now this discussion of contemplating entertaining offers for him -- mind...blown...

 

[thewave]

if marner signs an offershet? the poster I was replying to said we couldn't get a similar talent anywhere well there are 4 RFA's right now of similar talent (some with more than 1 season above 69 points). Again IF marner signs an offersheet at $12.5M? yeah id do it, **** having the highest paid player in the league. Say if we can get ranatanen at $10.5/11M over marner at $12.5?. All extremely hypothetical of course

the last part of my post is pretty important, not sure if your rage induced eyes saw it, "IF MARNER WANTS TO GET TO THAT POINT"

I get it you are willing to let marner take an incredible overpayment for a winger, (being paid McDavid;s contract is an incredible overpayment for a 1D or 1C even).

edit: and then add in all the marner camp leaks too, none of our other RFA's felt the need to negotiate publicly

Publicly? Nylander did, Matthews got a blank check.

 

[kb]

They were willing to sign for 8.5 X 8.

That was only speculated.

 

[Walshy7]

Publicly? Nylander did, Matthews got a blank check.

Nylander did? can you point me to a link where he said anything publicly, I don't remember that. trust you wouldn't just make it up. can you give a general direction so I can see it

 

[Willchel Marlynder]

They didn't. McDavid is getting 16.67% of the cap - a significant underpayment. Matthews is getting 14.63%. The incessant moaning about the term is not based on evidence. The 3 players who signed 5 year deals with really high cap hits when coming off their ELCs - Crosby, Malkin and Stamkos - all re-signed for longer term at lower cap hits on their next deals.

Come on don't be disingenuous, you can't compare what Malkin and Crosby did during their ELC years with Matthews and put them in the same category.

102, 120, and a 110 point pace Crosby

And a 106 and 113 point Malkin

Matthews doesn't compare to these guys. Now Stamkos is a much better comparison. Off his ELC he got 11.66% a far cry from the 14.63% Matthews is getting. If Matthews got a fair deal based on a true comparable he would be making 9.65 not 11.5. So no, the "incessant moaning" is valid and based off the few comparables from past contracts that we have.

Matthews is overpaid based on comparables it's that simple. Ferris is right, that Matthews deal is as rich as it gets. Marner is going to be looking for a rich deal too. Only thing is Marner needs to remember he got to play with JT.

 

[thewave]

Nylander did? can you point me to a link where he said anything publicly, I don't remember that. trust you wouldn't just make it up. can you give a general direction so I can see it

The public appeal to take less money and then there were a lot of leaks about his dad running the show etc. It was semi public, even the money wanted by his camp of 7.5m. public by proxy I suppose.

 

[Walshy7]

The public appeal to take less money and then there were a lot of leaks about his dad running the show etc. It was semi public, even the money wanted by his camp of 7.5m. public by proxy I suppose.

oh ok so "semi-public" not actually public.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Kucherov put up 128 points finished 2nd in NHL scoring and plays wing and resigned for 8 years @ $9.5 mil as a UFA ..

UFAs generally make more than RFA, because the market supply and demand dictate salary as UFAs, where RFAs are cost controllable without the market setting their price, their own team sets their value.

If what you say is true than Marner should make < Kucherov based on points and based on RFA vs UFA contract. If Marner were in TB he couldn't demand more than Kucherov, and in fact it would be hard to argue he would make more than Stamkos 8 X $8.5 mil who put up 45 goals and 98 points.

So try and explain why Marner is seeking > $10 mil on a shorter term deal and you will soon realize that its his teammates Matthews @$11.634 and Tavares @ $11 mil that are his comparables because he lead the Leafs in scoring and so statistically he is just as valuable to the Leafs team as his own teammates and puts himself at their level so he feels he also deserves to be rewarded financially similar.

In Marner's case his agent Darren Ferris will claim not only is Mitch as valuable but in fact he helped validate JT contract, because he is directly responsible for many of the JT goals and his setting new personal best marks. Tavares put up 47 goals and 88 points for $11 mil and Marner put up 94 points.

There is no contradiction here at all.

You clearly state that Marner's contract will be based on his own team comparables (which the players aren't even comparable), He compares to Nylander more then Matthews and Tavares.

You also clearly state that other RFAs contracts will be based on Marner's.

How is this not a contradiction ?

Another one: You say Marner will be paid top dollar by Leafs and all other RFAs will settle for less to where it fits the team.

How is this not a contradiction ?

 

[The CyNick]

By all indications right now, it seems like Marner is saying he is better than those two, so pay me more than them.

Which he might be right about.

You have JT who has more great years behind him than ahead of him.

And matthews who is a better goal scorer, and yes is a centre, hasn't been able to stay on the ice for 82 and has lots of warts in his own zone.

 

[hamzarocks]

Nylander did? can you point me to a link where he said anything publicly, I don't remember that. trust you wouldn't just make it up. can you give a general direction so I can see it

Marner hasnt gone publicly himself has he? Nor has his agent? It's all been speculation/rumors coming from guys in the media. That random French reporter said 16 will sign a 12.5 million dollar offer but he is essentially a no one in terms of the hockey media world. Dreger did say something earlier that caused a bunch of commotion here(forgot what it was, havent been following the leafs that closely since they got eliminated). Everyone assumed that Dreger was getting his information straight from the marner camp to try and put pressure onto Dubas to give him a better deal.

Nylander can be said of doing the same thing. Dreger back last summer also reported that the nylander camp was looking for 8.5 million and using the draisaitl contract as a comparable. Isn't that the same thing as what marner is doing. Nylander/nylanders teanust have put that out to dreger as marner/marners team did.

https://www.bardown.com/darren-dreg...nk-nylander-is-asking-the-leafs-for-1.1171862


Edit: I could be out of the loop and maybe marner has said other things than just pointing dreger in a certain direction. Looking it up dreger said that marner would begin to talk to teams starting Junr 26th. This could be baseless speculation by dreger to try and stir up the crowd, or it perhaps could be actual news coming from marners camp. Not too sure. If that was coming from marners camp I'll agree that nylander never went so aggressively as using the media to push for his contract. He took a different route but knew that still hurt the leafs and himself.

 

[ACC1224]

Marner hasnt gone publicly himself has he? Nor has his agent? It's all been speculation/rumors coming from guys in the media. That random French reporter said 16 will sign a 12.5 million dollar offer but he is essentially a no one in terms of the hockey media world. Dreger did say something earlier that caused a bunch of commotion here(forgot what it was, havent been following the leafs that closely since they got eliminated). Everyone assumed that Dreger was getting his information straight from the marner camp to try and put pressure onto Dubas to give him a better deal.

Nylander can be said of doing the same thing. Dreger back last summer also reported that the nylander camp was looking for 8.5 million and using the draisaitl contract as a comparable. Isn't that the same thing as what marner is doing. Nylander/nylanders teanust have put that out to dreger as marner/marners team did.

https://www.bardown.com/darren-dreg...nk-nylander-is-asking-the-leafs-for-1.1171862

You're honesty is appreciated.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

There's pros and cons to different markets.

Marner could go play for the ducks or panthers, live in a perfect climate all year round, look for rockets on the beach, and not get bothered by every Joe Six Pack who recognizes him when he's living his life.

Yes, on the flip side he loses a couple bucks in endorsements, but he also gets tax benefits and he's not taking a disrespectful offer. His dignity is probably valuable to him.

Mitch is a people person. He loves the interactions. and he is a good kid. He will get his 10.5M AAV with Leafs and get his 5M per sponsor money too. He will make more than any other Leaf. The only real questions left is how long is the deal? and how long does he get the Rogers and Bell money for? 15M per for 8 years is 120M over the contract. Not bad coin for a kid.

 

[Walshy7]

Marner hasnt gone publicly himself has he? Nor has his agent? It's all been speculation/rumors coming from guys in the media. That random French reporter said 16 will sign a 12.5 million dollar offer but he is essentially a no one in terms of the hockey media world. Dreger did say something earlier that caused a bunch of commotion here(forgot what it was, havent been following the leafs that closely since they got eliminated). Everyone assumed that Dreger was getting his information straight from the marner camp to try and put pressure onto Dubas to give him a better deal.

Nylander can be said of doing the same thing. Dreger back last summer also reported that the nylander camp was looking for 8.5 million and using the draisaitl contract as a comparable. Isn't that the same thing as what marner is doing. Nylander/nylanders teanust have put that out to dreger as marner/marners team did.

https://www.bardown.com/darren-dreg...nk-nylander-is-asking-the-leafs-for-1.1171862

Marner's agent came out the day of Matthews signing to put his 2 cents in, and I swear he has said something more recently which I was basing it on. Could be mistaken and it was a "dreger nugget"

edit: here is article where marner's agent came out around Matthews signing time

Mitch Marner's agent: Leafs have been trying to lowball him - Sportsnet.ca

 

[hamzarocks]

Marner's agent came out the day of Matthews signing to put his 2 cents in, and I swear he has said something more recently which I was basing it on. Could be mistaken and it was a "dreger nugget"

I looked it up. Your right about marners agent coming out the day of AM34 signing. That was Ferris running his mouth for no good reason. The next time he addressed the situation, Ferris backtracked and pointed out the Low Balls were earlier before his breakout season and extinguished the flames. Agree though that Ferris could have waited a couple of days before making such a comment.

Pretty sure that the marner fiasco started due to Dreger needing to be the smartest guy in the room again. He tweeted marner wanting 10.5-11 million. I dont think dreger is a good source for insider information. I doubt what he said was accurate.

Marner’s agent tries to put out fire from Maple Leafs ‘lowball’ comments

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Which he might be right about.

You have JT who has more great years behind him than ahead of him.

And matthews who is a better goal scorer, and yes is a centre, hasn't been able to stay on the ice for 82 and has lots of warts in his own zone.

That alone is justification as to why Matthews (and Tavares) deserves more money, and you haven't even mentioned that Marner has his own deficiencies, including his own defensive play. I wouldn't complain about his defensive play, but I wouldn't call it a selling point for him, just like it wouldn't be for Matthews. It definitely would be for Tavares though.

 

[Walshy7]

I looked it up. Your right about marners agent coming out the day of AM34 signing. That was Ferris running his mouth for no good reason. The next time he addressed the situation, Ferris backtracked and pointed out the Low Balls were earlier before his breakout season and extinguished the flames. Agree though that Ferris could have waited a couple of days before making such a comment.

Pretty sure that the marner fiasco started due to Dreger needing to be the smartest guy in the room again. He tweeted marner wanting 10.5-11 million. I dont think dreger is a good source for insider information. I doubt what he said was accurate.

I agree, which was debated in the nyladner siging threads about dreger saying Nylander wanted $8.5. At that time said claimed he was a legit source and people disagreeing he has info were basically "blocking their ears and going lalala" so either he talks shit or we have to pay attention to his comments about marner.

I now and then believe/d Dreger doesn't know what he is talking about