Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part III

[MyBudJT]

LOL at everyone suggesting that Draisatl is a better player than Marner, or that trading Marner for him would benefit us.

Look at their ELC years, and Marner was much more impressive.

Lastly, Marner hasn’t stopped developing, people! He just finished his U22 season!

 

[Crysis]

Skinner and Mark Stone are UFA status players so their contracts are not direct comparables for RFA players of which Marner is.

The first 4 years of Marner deal are RFA and intended to be cost controllable by the organization by using the CBA as intended.

Issue is they didn't take this approach with Matthews.

 

[Uncle]

Wouldnt it be beneficial to wait until Point is signed to sign Marner? would be a good comparable and for some reason I dont see Point signing an overpayment

 

[Mess]

The dark horse team to watch out for, for a potential Marner offersheet are the Philly Flyers. IMO

In 2006 they attempted it on Ryan Kessler, and in 2012 they attempted it on Shea Weber, in both cases their original teams matched and kept their own players, but it shows that Flyers organization is not afraid to use this CBA tool, and got past RFA players to actually put pen to paper also and known for their aggression is this area.

Philly also has > $33 mil in free cap space at present amongst the most of all NHL teams (only Colorado, NJ & Ottawa have more) and do already have their key vets already under contract for 3+ years.

Flyers likely to go aggressive after the first wave of UFA players (Panarin/Duchene) and then depending on that outcome might be primed for an OS attempt on Marner.

They might also be willing to package together in trade assets to try and acquire Marner if the Leafs are struggling to sign him as they have the luxuary of some younger Dmen assets and forwards that might be of Leafs interest also. (ie 11th overall pick this year + Travis Sanheim and Travis Konecny/Nolan Patrick etc) all former 1st round picks.

 

[Dreakmur]

The dark horse team to watch out for, for a potential Marner offersheet are the Philly Flyers. IMO

In 2006 they attempted it on Ryan Kessler, and in 2012 they attempted it on Shea Weber, in both cases their original teams matched and kept their own players, but it shows that Flyers organization is not afraid to use this CBA tool, and got past RFA players to actually put pen to paper also and known for their aggression is this area.

Philly also has > $33 mil in free cap space at present amongst the most of all NHL teams (only Colorado, NJ & Ottawa have more) and do already have their key vets already under contract for 3+ years.

Flyers likely to go aggressive after the first wave of UFA players (Panarin/Duchene) and then depending on that outcome might be primed for an OS attempt on Marner.

They might also be willing to package together in trade assets to try and acquire Marner if the Leafs are struggling to sign him as they have the luxuary of some younger Dmen assets and forwards that might be of Leafs interest also. (ie 11th overall pick this year + Travis Sanheim and Travis Konecny/Nolan Patrick etc) all former 1st round picks.

Sure, they have cap space, but they have quite a few RFAs to sign. Ivan Provorov and Travis Sanheim on defensem, and both could get quite a bit of money. Scott Laughton, Ryan Hartman, and Travis Konecny up from, the last of whom should get a rather large contract. That doesn't count the UFA they just traded for - Kevin Hayes.

 

[biotk]

Weird how Buffalo has set the market rate for two of our stars now. Once Eichel got his contract, it was inevitable Matthews would get paid $11M+. Same now with Skinner. I was adamant Marner shouldn't get $10M+ but how can anyone say that now? Guaranteed someone from Marner's camp sent a "your move" message to Leafs management after that signing. And to think 2 years ago most people were thinking in the $6-7M range for Marner.

I don't think that the Skinner signing affects negotiations with Marner. They are two completely different types players on two completely different teams which are two completely different situations. Buffalo in the past has gotten close to the cap by overpaying middling players (and they have still averaged 5M in available cap space over the past 4 years). I would rather them get close to cap by overpaying a 40 goal scorer.

Tampa has Point to sign. Can they afford to pay him 11M? Nope. Only if they take a hacksaw to their team. So to me they say to him, if you want to play on this powerhouse cup contender we can pay you 9. If making more than 9 is that important to you then you will have to look elsewhere. Toronto needs to do the same with Marner.

 

[Joey Hoser]

Absolutely. Patiently waiting to see it.

I don't even believe you. Playing dumb doesn't work in contract negotiations.

If you're surprised when Matthews gets 80 points, then that will say more about you, than him.

 

[Advanced stats]

I don't mind the Skinner deal, as it relates to marner.

If Marner says, "hey Skinner signed for 9, I'd like 11"
Dubas comes back and says, "Skinner signed for 8 years, are you willing to sign for 8?"

And really, an 8x11 deal for Marner wouldn't be terrible

 

[ULF_55]

Oddly in Toronto norms and rules don't apply as the scale reads

1. RFA
2. Toronto
3. 25 goals
4. < 30 goals per 82 games career average

This gets you $10-11 mil on a 5 - 6 year deal, despite Leaf advantage/leverage in every category.

Many fans better start buying more merchandise to get that cap moving.

He hasn't signed yet, hopefully it comes in reasonable, and I'd rather they overpay him before July 1st., so they can auction him off before he gets an offersheet.

Since the pollution from all the "GM and Executives" around the league talking heads "talk to" have said he should get around 11, there should be quite a few teams who will drive up the price on a trade.

 

[Legion34]

People still don’t understand the shift in the contracts.

It used to be “Rfa” years are cheaper. UFA years you cash in on a long term deal with security.

Until players like Ladd and Okposo and lucic and Erickson became anchors.

Teams started being more selective. Realizing it doesn’t make sense to pay cap for last performance.

30-32 year old platers are ageing out of the league at record rates.

Fans of teams now have caught on “I don’t want my team playing gardiner til he’s 35”

So now (with a few exceptions) agents who’s players got the gears in RFA with the belief that their players are getting the 8 year long term deal are learning that the teams are being smarter about this and giving out 5-6
Years.

So now the agents are saying. Fine pay the RFA Like you used to pay UFA.

The fact that Auston Matthews is the ONLY major RFA who has signed. Hasn’t clued people in? They are clearly strategizing together. They are going to war. It’s obvious. Whether they win or lose. They are banding together.

All the fans who thought Matthews was bailing on the team by signing “high” early. At least he signed

 

[Stephen]

LOL at everyone suggesting that Draisatl is a better player than Marner, or that trading Marner for him would benefit us.

Look at their ELC years, and Marner was much more impressive.

Lastly, Marner hasn’t stopped developing, people! He just finished his U22 season!

Leon Draisatl is a significantly more projectable player than Marner as they mature into their primes. Having him play 1A and 1B at center with Matthews or on Matthews wing would give us a much tougher to match up presence in the playoffs than Magic Mitch.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

People still don’t understand the shift in the contracts.

It used to be “Rfa” years are cheaper. UFA years you cash in on a long term deal with security.

Until players like Ladd and Okposo and lucic and Erickson became anchors.

Teams started being more selective. Realizing it doesn’t make sense to pay cap for last performance.

30-32 year old platers are ageing out of the league at record rates.

Fans of teams now have caught on “I don’t want my team playing gardiner til he’s 35”

So now (with a few exceptions) agents who’s players got the gears in RFA with the belief that their players are getting the 8 year long term deal are learning that the teams are being smarter about this and giving out 5-6
Years.

So now the agents are saying. Fine pay the RFA Like you used to pay UFA.

The fact that Auston Matthews is the ONLY major RFA who has signed. Hasn’t clued people in? They are clearly strategizing together. They are going to war. It’s obvious. Whether they win or lose. They are banding together.

All the fans who thought Matthews was bailing on the team by signing “high” early. At least he signed

I'm not sure things have changed all that much. Matthews v.s. Malkin contracts are good references to highlight that people paid elite RFA players equivalently even going back a decade.

 

[Legion34]

I'm not sure things have changed all that much. Matthews v.s. Malkin contracts are good references to highlight that people paid elite RFA players equivalently even going back a decade.

Matthews was the one who went back to how it was. That’s what I’m saying. The rest are all waiting.

Name a time in the last decade every single star RFA save 1 refused to sign until this late

 

[YearsintheWilderness]

If the Leafs guarantee Marner they'll use their connections to get a restraining order against any one person of his choice, he'll sign for 8 per year without blinking. Two birds with one stone.

 

[MyBudJT]

Leon Draisatl is a significantly more projectable player than Marner as they mature into their primes. Having him play 1A and 1B at center with Matthews or on Matthews wing would give us a much tougher to match up presence in the playoffs than Magic Mitch.

What does “projectable player” even mean?

Also, Draisatl is no more a center than Nylander. Both are much more effective players on the wing.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Do you honestly question whether or not Matthews is capable of an 80 point season?

Well matty is 0/3 and I thought he would reach 80 points last year. We'll see if he can do it in year 4

 

[Stamkos4life]

I don't mind the Skinner deal, as it relates to marner.

If Marner says, "hey Skinner signed for 9, I'd like 11"
Dubas comes back and says, "Skinner signed for 8 years, are you willing to sign for 8?"

And really, an 8x11 deal for Marner wouldn't be terrible

Having marner for the next 8 seasons would be tight! 11 mil is a steep price although I'd take it for 8

 

[IPS]

Draisaitl gets a hell of a lot more ice-time and offensive usage than Marner. That's about the only thing certain that we know when comparing those players.

 

[paulhiggins]

And this is why I had to dial back my criticism of Dubas after the Matthews contract. I was furious with that contract at first, but the cold hard truth is the market is trending towards these contracts.

You got a guy like Brock Nelson making $6M and now you got Jeff Skinner making $9M. It's all turned out to be true. I think people should start realizing that Dubas really didn't **** up the contracts of Matthews/Nylander much at all, if any. These agents know precisely where the market was trending. The old days of "10 points per million" baseline is most definitely a thing of the past.

If the league as we know it needs to be destroyed and rebuilt using common sense I'm all for it. Even if it takes a 2-3 year work stoppage. I think what will rise out of the ashes will be a better product and more fair to the lower-tier players and the fans who have to pay for tickets.

 

[ULF_55]

What does “projectable player” even mean?

Also, Draisatl is no more a center than Nylander. Both are much more effective players on the wing.

Funny, hard to tell whether McDavid or Draisaitl are centers when they're playing together.

 

[ULF_55]

Draisaitl gets a hell of a lot more ice-time and offensive usage than Marner. That's about the only thing certain that we know when comparing those players.

Draisaitl scored almost twice as many goals as Marner.
But Marner was playing with a better goal score last year.

 

[IPS]

Draisaitl scored almost twice as many goals as Marner.
But Marner was playing with a better goal score last year.

When you look at the massive discrepancy in ice-time between them, it's remarkable that Marner came as close as he did to Drai in total points. Anybody who thinks Drai comes even close to 100 points under Babcock is incredibly delusional.

 

[Stamkos4life]

Marner > drai.

I know the main board polls is not the most accurate place to get info but there was a poll recently of marner vs drai and marner won it.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Draisaitl is a pretty elite player, he should be around 100 point mark for the next 5+ years.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Matthews was the one who went back to how it was. That’s what I’m saying. The rest are all waiting.

Name a time in the last decade every single star RFA save 1 refused to sign until this late

Waiting late is one thing, yea seems to be a bit different now. But mentioned specifically dollars for RFA vs UFA and I’m not so sure that has changed much based on the information we have.