Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[DarkKnight]

I bloody hope so, I love the kid and the last thing I want is him leaving but him getting on a plane or slow rolling negotiations past July first would be a serious problem from a be an building perspective

Yep, if they actually go to July 1st, then it's hurting the team and I will put my heart in frozen storage and send him packing.

As an aside, this shit is on management. Slow playing Nylander was a colossal mistake, the moment you brought in JT you knew that Marner was guaranteed a great season. Letting him start this season without serious negotiations was an error. Then, his side watches player friendly deals and the expectations rise further. If some armchair idiot like me knew we were taking a huge risk last training camp letting Marner play without a contract, how can the great minds not see the folly. If Matthews is worth 11 plus, you can make a compelling argument Marner isn't that far behind. Fair? Comparables? Doesn't matter, in house the comparables are there.

Let the horse out of the barn, then stuffed the other horses, now we're stuck with filling the trough or moving on. We f***ed this up bad, and many said it last year.

 

[LeafGrief]

It boggles my mind how hard his camp is willing to push this. Does he really think that he keeps all his endorsements when he goes and signs with the Islanders or whatever? So much of his money is tied up in his hometown Leafs kid brand and he has Dreger seriously pushing narratives that could damage that image. I hope to hell this is all Dreger bullshit and not true.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Production wise he compares to Eichel which I think puts him at about $11m over 8. Depends on what the Center tax is.

I dont get why suddenly with Marner all his comparisons have been centers.

Guys like Kucherov just signed for 9.5 x 8. Patrick Kane first ELC was far less and he is likely Marner's best comparison.

He got 6.3 million in a year with a 59.4 million dollar ceiling (10.6%) . With a 83 million dollar ceiling that is 8.8 million for 5 years.

An 11 million dollar ask (~13.25%) is crazy for a winger coming off his ELC.

 

[Kiwi]

Production wise he compares to Eichel which I think puts him at about $11m over 8. Depends on what the Center tax is.

Eichel is also the "face" of the franchise/rebuild like Matthews is for us so that plus the center thing would go into it

I could live with 10M×7 for Marner but over that I start getting very trade happy

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

PSA: Everyone needs to learn from the Nylander debacle when it comes to interpreting information.

“It is my belief that” — broadcaster speculation (not insider info), unqualified
“It is believed that” — external speculation, probably unqualified speculation
“Executives believe that” — qualified speculation, but no insider info
“A source close to the situation told me that” — insider information

When you say “it is reported that...”, the minimum bar for information qualification should be insider information.

Be good at qualifying your information or else you’re even worse than broadcasters sharing their bad opinions for purposes of stirring you up.

 

[Kiwi]

Yep, if they actually go to July 1st, then it's hurting the team and I will put my heart in frozen storage and send him packing.

As an aside, this **** is on management. Slow playing Nylander was a colossal mistake, the moment you brought in JT you knew that Marner was guaranteed a great season. Letting him start this season without serious negotiations was an error. Then, his side watches player friendly deals and the expectations rise further. If some armchair idiot like me knew we were taking a huge risk last training camp letting Marner play without a contract, how can the great minds not see the folly. If Matthews is worth 11 plus, you can make a compelling argument Marner isn't that far behind. Fair? Comparables? Doesn't matter, in house the comparables are there.

Let the horse out of the barn, then stuffed the other horses, now we're stuck with filling the trough or moving on. We ****ed this up bad, and many said it last year.

There's absolutely no debate management has ****** this up royally, the fact stuff like this is being circulated in the media at all is a sad indictment of how Marner's agent and family are viewing this thing

One thing about screwing up all these contracts is I can't see any way we can pay Marner over 10M a year now, it's bloody hard sorting a team with him on a 6M-7M bridge deal at this point

 

[al secord]

I'm going to reserve judgment for what Nick Kypreos' concussed mind "thinks."

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

I dont get why suddenly with Marner all his comparisons have been centers.

Guys like Kucherov just signed for 9.5 x 8. Patrick Kane first ELC was far less and he is likely Marner's best comparison.

Yea somehow I’ve found it difficult to get ahold of wingers that compare well. I think I looked into Kucherov and found that Marner produced at a higher rate — important to pay attention to when Kucherov signed his $9.5m contract because that wouldn’t include last season. I could be wrong on the production comparison though. Also hard to use teams in Florida and Alberta as comparables given the tax situations as well.

Patrick Kane’s post-ELC IMO is an absolute floor for Marner’s contract. When you look at rate of production Marner produces quite a bit more both 5v5 and on the PP. Kane just had lots more PP time.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yep, if they actually go to July 1st, then it's hurting the team and I will put my heart in frozen storage and send him packing.

As an aside, this **** is on management. Slow playing Nylander was a colossal mistake, the moment you brought in JT you knew that Marner was guaranteed a great season. Letting him start this season without serious negotiations was an error. Then, his side watches player friendly deals and the expectations rise further. If some armchair idiot like me knew we were taking a huge risk last training camp letting Marner play without a contract, how can the great minds not see the folly. If Matthews is worth 11 plus, you can make a compelling argument Marner isn't that far behind. Fair? Comparables? Doesn't matter, in house the comparables are there.

Let the horse out of the barn, then stuffed the other horses, now we're stuck with filling the trough or moving on. We ****ed this up bad, and many said it last year.

Nylander asking for ridiculous money had a lot to do with it. He didn't slow play Matthews, and if Marner knew he was going to play with Tavares, why would he even bother starting negotiations with the Leafs until after this season? He was almost certainly going to leave money on the table and it's not like we were allowed to negotiate with him until after we signed Tavares anyways.

Marner is not comparable to either player. The only thing he should take from those deals is that you can either hold out like Nylander, but almost certainly get dealt (which is still a very strong likelihood for Nylander at some point) or you can take market value and have a Leafs future like Matthews. His choice.

 

[Menzinger]

Production wise he compares to Eichel which I think puts him at about $11m over 8. Depends on what the Center tax is.

Though centre vs winger. And Eichel didn't play with a linemate on Tavares' level.

 

[Mach85]

Yikes!



To me the issue is publicly embarrassing your daughter, I can't think of any excuse for that.

Honestly, looks like she could use some of that kind of embarrassing if this is reflective of her attitude:

 

[MyBudJT]

He counted against the cap for 6.96M last season. The FULL YEAR cap hit is higher but he only counted against the cap for the days he was actually on the roster, prorated, his cap hit was 6.96M.

Nylander’s net accumulated cap hit was $6.96m at the end of last season. Not having Nylander before Dec 1 may have affected the team negatively (though the team enjoyed a PDO binge Oct through Nov so tore up the league despite that), but at the end of the day Nylanders cap hit last season was $6.96m.

Don't know how many times I've been saying this.

It’s a losing battle. Even the media don’t understand this stuff and makes things even worse.

From what I gather, its actually more complicated than this, and that you're ALL WRONG! Had Nylander not had any signing bonuses on his first year, then you all would be correct.

From what I understand, an NHL season is 184 days long. The following is rough math:

Season Started October 3, Nylander Signed 59 days later on December 1st.

59/184 = 32% into the season.

Nylander's base salary was 10 million PLUS he signed a 2 million bonus that isn't subject to in-season penalties.

His take home money earned would be:
10*0.68 + 2 = 8.8 mil this year.

8.8 mil / 79.5 = ~11% cap hit (1.9 less than reported on capfriendly).
Even if you just account for take-home money... Nylander got more than 6.96 net this season... its in around 8.8 million.

Had Nylander signed the contract with the same take-home amount at the start of the season, we would have probably saved ~1.5 million this season (albeit at the expense of 300K more in years 2-6).

1.5 million pro-rated to the NHL trade deadline would accumulated to a lot more money. I don't know how much exactly, probably around 3-4 mil in free cap space.

 

[Bomber0104]

Welp, so far it looks like we're in for another shit show negotiation.

 

[Morgs]

Lol, I can't wait to see this play out.

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

From what I gather, its actually more complicated than this, and that you're ALL WRONG! Had Nylander not had any signing bonuses on his first year, then you all would be correct.

From what I understand, an NHL season is 184 days long. The following is rough math:

Season Started October 3, Nylander Signed 59 days later on December 1st.

59/184 = 32% into the season.

Nylander's base salary was 10 million PLUS he signed a 2 million bonus that isn't subject to in-season penalties.

His take home money earned would be:
10*0.68 + 2 = 8.8 mil this year.

8.8 mil / 79.5 = ~11% cap hit (1.9 less than reported on capfriendly).
Even if you just account for take-home money... Nylander got more than 6.96 net this season... its in around 8.8 million.

Had Nylander signed the contract with the same take-home amount at the start of the season, we would have probably saved ~1.5 million this season (albeit at the expense of 300K more in years 2-6).

1.5 million pro-rated to the NHL trade deadline would accumulated to a lot more money. I don't know how much exactly, probably around 3-4 mil in free cap space.

You understand wrong. Nylanders final cap hit in every year of his contract is every dollar the contract will pay him divided by the term.

 

[Cleetus]

they said draft good players, they said it will be fun....

 

[Amadeus]

If he stays, awesome. If he goes, trade him for a great package. Depending on what or who we acquire back, we could still turn out okay.

I trust in Kyle Dubas.

 

[MyBudJT]

You understand wrong. Nylanders final cap hit in every year of his contract is every dollar the contract will pay him divided by the term.

Again, this would be correct IF Nylander didn't earn any income this year from a signing bonus.

"You can manipulate this around depending on what you want and, in fact, if William Nylander said to the Leafs, 'You know what? I don't really want to pay a penalty for missing the first two months of the season, so why don't you give me a big, huge signing bonus in my first year and hardly any salary and that will make me whole. I won't have missed any time (for salary purposes).' - Bob McKenzie

 

[cookie]

I can't believe that people are taking Dreger's word as near-gospel. He has no sources except for the team representing Marner, so of course he's going to be going on about how the Leafs need to make an aggressive offer. It's ridiculous how a career year propped up by playing with a hockey tardigrade like Tavares and playing on a power play that had Matthews and Tavares on it is causing one party to ask for an unprecedented contract. If I were the Leafs and if Marner's side continues this stupid hardballing, let them do so for as long as they can - let them destroy any and all goodwill, get Bracco some PP time, let his comparables sign sane contracts, and if there is a party willing to give up 4x1st round picks... well jump on it. Hell, if he does sit and a winger like Nylander or Kapanen does well on Tavares's wing (as they should) what will that do to Marner's demands?

 

[Tak7]

• Marner's camp tells Dreger what they "want"
• Dreger tattles to the media
• Fans / media form their opinion
• Mitch becomes a hero when he takes a "discount" at $10M

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

Again, this would be correct IF Nylander didn't earn any income this year from a signing bonus.

That quote is all perfectly in line with the fact that Nylander's cap hit in every year is every dollar he earns divided by the term: $7m.

 

[Deebo]

From what I gather, its actually more complicated than this, and that you're ALL WRONG! Had Nylander not had any signing bonuses on his first year, then you all would be correct.

From what I understand, an NHL season is 184 days long. The following is rough math:

Season Started October 3, Nylander Signed 59 days later on December 1st.

59/184 = 32% into the season.

Nylander's base salary was 10 million PLUS he signed a 2 million bonus that isn't subject to in-season penalties.

His take home money earned would be:
10*0.68 + 2 = 8.8 mil this year.

8.8 mil / 79.5 = ~11% cap hit (1.9 less than reported on capfriendly).
Even if you just account for take-home money... Nylander got more than 6.96 net this season... its in around 8.8 million.

Had Nylander signed the contract with the same take-home amount at the start of the season, we would have probably saved ~1.5 million this season (albeit at the expense of 300K more in years 2-6).

1.5 million pro-rated to the NHL trade deadline would accumulated to a lot more money. I don't know how much exactly, probably around 3-4 mil in free cap space.

I am 100% sure he only counted for 6.96M against the cap in 2018/19. Look at the Accum. Hit number for Nylander here:

Toronto Maple Leafs Daily Cap Tracker - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

The structure of the payout doesn't effect the cap hit. It's always total amount paid divided by number of years

They gross up the cap full year cap hit in year one to ensure that amount charged to the cap is equal in all years of the contract.

His full year cap hit was 10,277,778
Daily cap hit = 10,277,778/186 days = 55,257
He was on the roster for 126 days
55,257 * 126 = 6,962,366 That's what he counted against the cap.

His total take home of the contract was 2M signing bonus in year one + prorated salary of 10M (6.77M) = 8.77 in year one.
8.3M signing bonus in year two + 0.7M salary = 9M
years 3-6 3.5M signing bonus + 2.5M salary = 6M

8.77 + 9 + 6 + 6 + 6 + 6 = 41.77

41.77/6 = 6.96M

 

[Kiwi]

Lol, I can't wait to see this play out.

I'm thinking some people are about to change their opinions on what an overpayment and me first player constitute

 

[Brobust]

they said draft good players, they said it will be fun....

15-16 were the good old days.

 

[Mr Hockey]

The leafs fan base doesn't understand these media people need to create news, etc or they get ignored