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Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

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hotpaws

hotpaws

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leospaceman3434 said:
Leafs fans and leafs media cannot allow the Marner camp to talk out of both sides of their mouth.

Marner doesn't get to play the good ol' Toronto boy who got to grow up a leafs fan and build his profile and his endorsement earnings while having Ferriss and his Dad do the dirty work for him.

It's obvious that Marner doesn't care about being a leaf. We should stop caring about him being a leaf as well.
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the media/fans allowed Dubas to talk out of both sides of his mouth , in public it was the Dube saying he wanted Willie to sign a fair deal while he was low balling him in negotiations

and the Marner camp knows that if Dubas was too big a p***y to trade Willie there's no way he has the balls to deal Marner
 
Duke Silver

Duke Silver

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ACC1224 said:
Sorry, I missed your 'if' and lumped your post in with all the others jumping to conclusions.
Quell what rumours? A tweet that's a few hours old?
Media warfare? I thought Shanahan had mentioned that they would keep things quiet?
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C'mon, ACC. Are you reading my posts fully or skimming? You're usually better than this.

I mentioned that media warfare was being waged by one side of this negotiation, obviously referring to the Marner camp.

Dreger's obviously a mouthpiece for the Marner camp based on his comments in the last few months which are less speculative than they are aggressive second-hand ultimatums, and this stuff would not be getting said without Marner's agent's say-so, who answers to Mitch. They're controlling the narrative while the Leafs are radio silent.

Remember the Feschuk article? There was a whole bunch of incendiary stuff in there that could have been addressed by Marner.
 

BoredBrandonPridham

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Ziggdiezan said:
Marner out produced Kuch for sure during his ELC but Kuch got a 3 year bridge for 6.53%. If the NHL is moving towards paying UFA/RFAs the same amount then you can look at Kucherov's contract after he put 84 points in 74 games then 100 points in 80 games and set that as a ceiling.

However giving Matthews so much for so little term has likely made that pitch impossible. It will be a hard pill to swallow when we pay Mitch way over market value and I guarantee you it is what we will see (he isnt being traded).
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When calibrating with Matthews and Kuch it’s important to distinguish PP from 5v5.

Marner is a full tier below Matthews in production and in addition his line mates are better.

Careful at comparing total season points between Kuch and Marner because IIUC Tampa has had a shot ton more PP time than the Leafs last few years.

p60 stats and isolating PP from 5v5 will give a better baseline when just looking at production.
 
Kotkaniemi15

Kotkaniemi15

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If a bad team signed Marner to a 7 x 12M deal and he accepted, would you want Dubas to match or would you want to take the four high firsts? Serious question.
 
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Brobust

Brobust

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Kotkaniemi15 said:
If a bad team signed Marner to a 7 x 12M deal and he accepted, would you want Dubas to match or would you want to take the four high firsts? Serious question.
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Wouldn't even need a second to decide. Any fan who isn't a drooling idiot would take the picks.
 
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Ziggdiezan

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mavis said:
When calibrating with Matthews and Kuch it’s important to distinguish PP from 5v5.

Marner is a full tier below Matthews in production and in addition his line mates are better.

Careful at comparing total season points between Kuch and Marner because IIUC Tampa has had a shot ton more PP time than the Leafs last few years.

p60 stats and isolating PP from 5v5 will give a better baseline when just looking at production.
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The problem I have when people purely use per 60 stats is it doesnt include the risk of injury which probably should have been looked at with Matthews but I do think it is an important stat to look at for sure.

I'm pretty sure Marner out produced Matthews in points/60 at ES or 5 on 5 this year but that is largely due to linemate quality as you've said.

Looking at last 3 years for Marner vs Kuch for current contracts (excluding current year for Kuch as he signed his current deal early)

Marner
2016/17: GP 77, 5 on 5 Points 37 (2.1/60)
2017/18: GP 82, 5 on 5 Points 36 (2.0/60)
2018/19: GP 82, 5 on 5 Points 58 (2.9/60)

Kucherov
2015/16: GP 77, 5 on 5 Points 33 (1.9/60)
2016/17: GP 74, 5 on 5 Points 43 (2.4/60)
2017/18: GP 80, 5 on 5 Points 59 (2.9/60)

So Kuch out produced Marner other than the first years I compared. Interestingly 2015/16 was a bad year for kuch and he produced 44 5 on 5 points (2.7/60) the previous year. Also a bit of a warning to see such a huge sudden jump for Marner when JT arrived while Kucherov had steady increase each year.

I just dont think Marner should be getting that much more than 9.5 x 8 especially when you consider UFA years bought. I think he will get more AAV and less term, it will be an overpayment.
 
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DarkKnight

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Kiwi said:
Do we have a number? I know he's tied up with some big companies but I wonder if theres a ballpark on how much his endorsements are worth?
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I just heard them say he was tops, wondered that too. It will go up exponentially if he were to sign a decent deal. He will never warm anywhere near the endorsement money elsewhere, and that could be the final sway when its sign or bye time.
 
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BoredBrandonPridham

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Ziggdiezan said:
The problem I have when people purely use per 60 stats is it doesnt include the risk of injury which probably should have been looked at with Matthews but I do think it is an important stat to look at for sure.

I'm pretty sure Marner out produced Matthews in points/60 at ES or 5 on 5 this year but that is largely due to linemate quality as you've said.

Looking at last 3 years for Marner vs Kuch for current contracts (excluding current year for Kuch as he signed his current deal early)

Marner
2016/17: GP 77, 5 on 5 Points 37
2017/18: GP 82, 5 on 5 Points 36
2018/19: GP 82, 5 on 5 Points 58

Kucherov
2015/16: GP 77, 5 on 5 Points 33
2016/17: GP 74, 5 on 5 Points 43
2017/18: GP 80, 5 on 5 Points 59

So Kuch out produced Marner other than the first years I compared. Also a bit of a warning to see such a huge sudden jump for Marner when JT arrived while Kucherov had steady increase each year.

I just dont think Marner should be getting that much more than 9.5 x 8 especially when you consider UFA years bought. I think he will get more AAV and less term, it will be an overpayment.
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Regarding Mitch vs Matthews: Salary Cap: - Marner Deal Discussion

Can’t exactly see on my phone what Matthews column says. I might do the same soon for p1/60 though since a study by evolving wild showed that p1/60 and term are metrics that predict contract value the best. A2 tend to be “noise” or very volatile season to season.

Sounds like recent Kuch is pretty comparable per your numbers but I’m still hesitant to use or expect Alberta/Florida as a measuring stick. Just my opinion though — we’ll see what happens!
 
Kiwi

Kiwi

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DarkKnight said:
I just heard them say he was tops, wondered that too. It will go up exponentially if he were to sign a decent deal. He will never warm anywhere near the endorsement money elsewhere, and that could be the final sway when its sign or bye time.
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You'd have to think it's well into the Millions, if he's getting 200k-500K each from those big companies at least, that's adding up pretty bloody quickly

He'd be mad to get himself traded out of this market from a financial POV, unless Dubas really low balls him which doesn't exactly jive with what we've seen out of him thus far
 
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DarkKnight

DarkKnight

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Kiwi said:
You'd have to think it's well into the Millions, if he's getting 200k-500K each from those big companies at least, that's adding up pretty bloody quickly

He'd be mad to get himself traded out of this market from a financial POV, unless Dubas really low balls him which doesn't exactly jive with what we've seen out of him thus far
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That's why I think he signs, Dreger is just carrying water. And why wouldn't you play hardball with a Dubas...he blinks.
 
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