Salary Cap: Marner Deal Discussion Part II

[Stephen]

If a bad team signed Marner to a 7 x 12M deal and he accepted, would you want Dubas to match or would you want to take the four high firsts? Serious question.

I’d take the 4 first rounders and then blow Colorado out of the water with a Rantanen offer sheet. Get a winger with a body to play with Matthews, possibly not even downgrading on point production and, upgrade the first round picks from a team desperate enough and with enough cap to commit financial suicide and possibly save on overpaying Marner. Win. Win. Win.

 

[New Liskeard]

Hypothetically, if Detroit (they have cap space) offer sheeted Marner for 12M x 7, would you take the picks?

Doesnt matter who sends an offer sheet and for how much. If he "signs" an offfer sheet I would happilly bid him farewell. However, I am willing to bet he has no interest in leaving the Leafs and for negligibly more money. Paul and Ferris are playing tough guys, and telling anyone in the media who is willing to listen, how tough it will be for the Leafs to sign him.

 

[Legendary]

Marner is not taking less than Matthews lol

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Regarding Mitch vs Matthews: Salary Cap: - Marner Deal Discussion

Can’t exactly see on my phone what Matthews column says. I might do the same soon for p1/60 though since a study by evolving wild showed that p1/60 and term are metrics that predict contract value the best. A2 tend to be “noise” or very volatile season to season.

Sounds like recent Kuch is pretty comparable per your numbers but I’m still hesitant to use or expect Alberta/Florida as a measuring stick. Just my opinion though — we’ll see what happens!

A2 can definitely have more noise and I would imagine it is a function of linemate quality. Pretty good indication of a passenger on a line if they have a very low primary point share in relation to their linemates.

Just looked it up, Matthews has 2.8 pts/60 at 5 on 5 compared to Marner's 2.9 pts/60. Looking at primary points:

Matthews: g/60 1.4, A1/60 0.9 = 2.3 p1/60
Marner: g/60 0.8, A1/60 1.8 = 2.6 p1/60

Linemates had a huge impact but it does look like Marner was a better 5 on 5 player than Matthews last year (first year that has happened).


Ya I think the fact Kuch gave up 7 UFA years would offset the taxes differences. Marner will still get another massive contract after this one while Kuch may not.

 

[Cleetus]

Marner is not taking less than Matthews lol

well I will wish him luck on his next team.

 

[Kiwi]

That's why I think he signs, Dreger is just carrying water. And why wouldn't you play hardball with a Dubas...he blinks.

It's worth a try but Dubas doesn't have as much leeway to **** up now so he wants to be careful he doesn't outwit himself out of town

I know what I'd do if I was him, I'd sign for 9M×7 walk to the media and talk about how much I loved the team and was willing to take a haircut to stay, he'd be a God with the fanbase and would make his life very comfortable

 

[Ziggdiezan]

If a bad team signed Marner to a 7 x 12M deal and he accepted, would you want Dubas to match or would you want to take the four high firsts? Serious question.

Should be hypothetical....

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

A2 can definitely have more noise and I would imagine it is a function of linemate quality. Pretty good indication of a passenger on a line if they have a very low primary point share in relation to their linemates.

Just looked it up, Matthews has 2.8 pts/60 at 5 on 5 compared to Marner's 2.9 pts/60. Looking at primary points:

Matthews: g/60 1.4, A1/60 0.9 = 2.3 p1/60
Marner: g/60 0.8, A1/60 1.8 = 2.6 p1/60

Linemates had a huge impact but it does look like Marner was a better 5 on 5 player than Matthews last year (first year that has happened).


Ya I think the fact Kuch gave up 7 UFA years would offset the taxes differences. Marner will still get another massive contract after this one while Kuch may not.

Wow, didn’t notice the P1 bump for Marner last year. Such an impact having a centre that can score can make. Leafs have 2 of the best ones.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Wow, didn’t notice the P1 bump for Marner last year. Such an impact having a centre that can score can make. Leafs have 2 of the best ones.

What I found very interesting was Marner's g/60 of 0.8 vs Matthews 1.4 g/60. Not nearly as big a difference as you would expect as Matthews did a lot of dmg on the PP.

 

[Menzinger]

Why would I need evidence when I'm the one asking where the Atheltic got their info about Marner's advertising money?

Because you're implying that a journalist made this number up without anything supporting that idea

 

[Rare Jewel]

They add up, but they come with commitments that extend past playing hockey. So, players while acknowledging they are part of the market, don't heavily value them due to the extra stuff involved, unlike tax breaks.

Matthews and Marner should have been sorted by the start of the season. Who cares about what effect it would have had on the Nylander negotiations. So far, its seems like the only people who the current management can get a good deal on was JT, who seemed intent on coming here. It seems every other deal is going to break the market previously set. So, we either have a culture where guys won't take discounts to play here, or a GM he can't negotiate, or some middle-ground between the 2.

After Nylander got that deal, and we caved to Matthews on the first and second negotiations (don't think this is forgotten how they refused to give Mitch bonuses in-line with the 4OA pick), Marner the Marner camp is going to fight for the Matthews deal. Which is the best deal any 2nd year player has gotten (it is better than McDavid deal, unless Matthews gets severely injured).

Yep. Even if the Marner camp indicated they wanted to go last of the three, then you bridge Nylander to just get it out of the way.

I found it quite puzzling and risky to let Marner play a whole season with Tavares (which is what Babcock indicated at JT's presser) without a contract extension. I don't know what they thought would happen.

 

[Riellyfan04]

You are stupid if you believe dreger. The guy is a complete tool and knows absolutely shjt all about leafs.... marner will sign and play for the leafs

 

[Cleetus]

It's worth a try but Dubas doesn't have as much leeway to **** up now so he wants to be careful he doesn't outwit himself out of town

I know what I'd do if I was him, I'd sign for 9M×7 walk to the media and talk about how much I loved the team and was willing to take a haircut to stay, he'd be a God with the fanbase and would make his life very comfortable

that would be the dream scenario, but its the leafs nothing would come that easy lol.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

You are stupid if you believe dreger. The guy is a complete tool and knows absolutely shjt all about leafs.... marner will sign and play for the leafs

If you don't think Dreger was fed this directly from either Ferris or Marner's dad...lol

 

[ToneDog]

I’d take the 4 first rounders and then blow Colorado out of the water with a Rantanen offer sheet. Get a winger with a body to play with Matthews, possibly not even downgrading on point production and, upgrade the first round picks from a team desperate enough and with enough cap to commit financial suicide and possibly save on overpaying Marner. Win. Win. Win.

I'd go after Tkachuk. Has what we need and should come cheaper.

 

[Deebo]

Okay, I may have been wrong concerning cap hits changing. However my point is still valid. Had he joined the team in training camp, we would have had a lot more extra cap space at the TDL (3-4 mil?).

No, your point isn't valid. They wouldn't have had any additional cap space if he signed a 7Mx6 deal and joined in training camp, it would be the same. The only way there would have been more cap space is if the total amount paid divided by the term of deal was less than 6.96M.

I also don't understand how that link says we had nearly 4 mil in cap space, when we were so tight to finish the season (<900K IIRC)

That space will be taken up by Marner (0.85M) and Matthews' (2.85M) performance bonuses.

 

[Riellyfan04]

If you don't think Dreger was fed this directly from either Ferris or Marner's dad...lol

No, i dont see them doing that. Ferris seems like a classy guy, iunno about marners dad but i just dont see then being that classless. Dreger has said stupid shit every year. He just wants clicks on his shit. If bob Mckenzie said this than id believe it

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

What I found very interesting was Marner's g/60 of 0.8 vs Matthews 1.4 g/60. Not nearly as big a difference as you would expect as Matthews did a lot of dmg on the PP.

I don’t think 1.4 vs 0.8 is negligible. Matthews scores nearly twice as much 5v5. More than Ovi did.

 

[Peasy]

Yep. Even if the Marner camp indicated they wanted to go last of the three, then you bridge Nylander to just get it out of the way.

I found it quite puzzling and risky to let Marner play a whole season with Tavares (which is what Babcock indicated at JT's presser) without a contract extension. I don't know what they thought would happen.

Why do people assume its as easy as saying those words lol.

There was 0 indication that Nylander was open to a bridge deal...

 

[Cleetus]

I'd go after Tkachuk. Has what we need and should come cheaper.

that would be good!

 

[TheBeastCoast]

No, i dont see them doing that. Ferris seems like a classy guy, iunno about marners dad but i just dont see then being that classless. Dreger has said stupid **** every year. He just wants clicks on his ****. If bob Mckenzie said this than id believe it

The same Ferris that went on Toronto radio to shit on the Leafs literally the day after Matthews signed? Classy isn't exactly the first word that comes to mind when I think of him.

 

[Bomber0104]

Because you're implying that a journalist made this number up without anything supporting that idea

Then show me specifically what the Athletic/Siegel used to support that idea. If they're any type of journalist worth a damn then I'm sure they provided a primary source for the statement that Marner makes as much as McDavid and Crosby.

Otherwise it's just baseless, unfounded speculation.

 

[Stand Witness]

Not worried about this at all. Big bluff and I'm not folding as the Leafs.

I would do as Bob said though. Table your best offer between now and the draft and make it clear. If he doesn't take it, start shopping him and control the return you get (equivalent of 4+ 1sts). If he doesn't want to be here, which will be very clear if he turns down the Leafs best offer then so be it. That's life and he does get a choice at the end of the day.

 

[NHL WAR]

Listened to the full Dreger interview. He also he'd be shocked if Marner signed for longer than 5 years. It seems the Marner camp really does want the Matthews deal, but the Leafs can t afford two of them.

 

[Rare Jewel]

Why do people assume its as easy as saying those words lol.

There was 0 indication that Nylander was open to a bridge deal...

Sure, but he'd probably take the bridge over missing a season. So if a longer term deal couldn't be reached by July or August given they more than a year prior to negotiate an extension with Nylander, I don't see why bridge was out of question. He never said it was, but a longer deal was preferred.