Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Once]

How many threads did Willy get? Damn near 60?

I project Marner will get ~45 threads.

 

[Ciao]

Once Marner is signed Leafs not only will have the highest combined Cap hit for their 2 centres, but Marner + Nylander a pair of wingers will be top 5 as well highest AAV as well.

1) Matthews/Tavares
2) McDavid/Draisatil
3) Crosby/Malkin
------------------------------
4) Marner/Nylander
5) Kopitar/Carter

Woe were the days when the Leafs didn't have a #1 centre at all; or no #2 after Mats Sundin!

Would you remember when Sundin was injured and dear little Alyn McCauley was left to fill his shoes for four playoff games in the 2002 first-round series against the Islanders? That's how deep the Leafs were at centre-ice then.

How about all those years that Tyler Bozak impersonated a first-line centre for want of a more credible imposter?

Yeah, I've been trying to forget about all that too.

Give me Tavares and Matthews any day. I don't care how much it costs.

So the Leafs have the most expensive top-two centres in the National Hockey League? Bravo! Good for them! I'm ever so glad they're both on the team!

 

[Once]

Everyone wants to cash under Dubas

Perhaps he wanted to wait until the season/playoffs finished? Guy didn't prove he is worth anything north of 2.9m, except one playoff game.

 

[AreBe]

The floor price for any potential Marner trade is four 1st round picks or the equivalent.

True but all those contracts were signed in the past - the next wave of contracts are going to be even expensive

Sir Issac Newton? Adam Smith? Malthus? Milton Friedman? You are bringing a level of insight that just will not do! Even if you viewpoints by this thread are wrongly seen as ambivalent,

4 consecutive first round picks is what we get if Mariner gets an offer sheet, and you'd need to think about it, because the person giving you 4 consecutive first round picks that must be the team's, is an idiot. That GM might not last after the second year when the Leafs scoop the first overall pick or close to it.Plus that other team is out $10.5 million! And you still get 2 more goes at it! Maybe 2 more first overall picks! When is the last time this giving away draft picks worked out? And this is the salary cap era! Your first round picks are gold! To get 4 more from a team run by an idiot? To the team that offer -sheeted him, 4 consecutive first round picks is one heck of a counteroffensive!

And remember the true genius of the Leafs and of Dubas, is instead of paying a fortune for yesterday's results and tomorrow's diminishing returns, the Leafs are paying what will be a bargain for tomorrow increasing returns! It's the new way of thinking and the Leafs are in fact on the cutting edge! We are the analytics in the salary cap era methodology adopters! We are Bill Gates and Microsoft, or some other Fortune 500 cutting edge equivalent!

 

[supsens]

What an exhaustive list this is.



Puts what into perspective? That the cost of keeping your top talent increases as the cap goes up?

In 5 years from now teams will be looking back on us wishing "damn, wish we could have signed our top talent when the cap was that low". It's a constantly-moving target.

Right when Mathews contract is a “deal” he will need a new one and JT’s will be a huge contract for an x star that has slowed down.

 

[4thline]

I would be absolutely shocked if a 4x 1st rounder offer sheet is on the table from anyone.
1st+1st+2nd+3rd? That's another story. Any team that is bubble level or better and has ~10 mil in cap space should be lining up to offer that, that's the risk we're facing.

My guess is 10.5-11 by 6-7.

 

[Notsince67]

Sir Issac Newton? Adam Smith? Malthus? Milton Friedman? You are bringing a level of insight that just will not do! Even if you viewpoints by this thread are wrongly seen as ambivalent,

4 consecutive first round picks is what we get if Mariner gets an offer sheet, and you'd need to think about it, because the person giving you 4 consecutive first round picks that must be the team's, is an idiot. That GM might not last after the second year when the Leafs scoop the first overall pick or close to it.Plus that other team is out $10.5 million! And you still get 2 more goes at it! Maybe 2 more first overall picks! When is the last time this giving away draft picks worked out? And this is the salary cap era! Your first round picks are gold! To get 4 more from a team run by an idiot? To the team that offer -sheeted him, 4 consecutive first round picks is one heck of a counteroffensive!

And remember the true genius of the Leafs and of Dubas, is instead of paying a fortune for yesterday's results and tomorrow's diminishing returns, the Leafs are paying what will be a bargain for tomorrow increasing returns! It's the new way of thinking and the Leafs are in fact on the cutting edge! We are the analytics in the salary cap era methodology adopters! We are Bill Gates and Microsoft, or some other Fortune 500 cutting edge equivalent!

Anyone thinking that a team grabbing Marner would be anywhere near being a bottom team with him playing there for a year, needs a reality check

 

[Duke Silver]

He used the cap% so this point is irrelevant.

No he didn't.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I did the math and if Marner is getting 10M the four make up 48% (47.7%) of the cap if the cap is 83M, not the 47% you said, so thanks math guy.

Rounding error sorry. 48% is correct.

Still not over 50% as you assumed

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I would be absolutely shocked if a 4x 1st rounder offer sheet is on the table from anyone.
1st+1st+2nd+3rd? That's another story. Any team that is bubble level or better and has ~10 mil in cap space should be lining up to offer that, that's the risk we're facing.

My guess is 10.5-11 by 6-7.

Any team making the OS would need to have all their own 1st round picks for next 4 years so i think that eliminates 9 teams from consideration and 11M+ price point for 7 year term would be only way to make Leafs not resign him.

 

[AreBe]

Anyone thinking that a team grabbing Marner would be anywhere near being a bottom team with him playing there for a year, needs a reality check

It depends- to be certain- but for 4 consecutive first round picks in the salary cap era, you gotta think about it. Sorry for the lack of poetry

You better have an amazing scouting staff

 

[DarkKnight]

Perhaps he wanted to wait until the season/playoffs finished? Guy didn't prove he is worth anything north of 2.9m, except one playoff game.

Should have signed.

 

[Duke Silver]

Right when Mathews contract is a “deal” he will need a new one and JT’s will be a huge contract for an x star that has slowed down.

The point was that comparing the actual salaries of players who signed 5+ years apart is silly because the cap has drastically changed.

Just Mess "forgetting" to include context, once again.

 

[4thline]

Any team making the OS would need to have all their own 1st round picks for next 4 years so i think that eliminates 9 teams from consideration and 11M+ price point for 7 year term would be only way to make Leafs not resign him.

I think I agree, the Leafs easily match a ~10m x 4/5.
The problem is that I think there's a lot of teams that would offer that contract, preventing the Leafs from getting him ~9x8

 

[18leafsfan18]

Babs one big issue. Second big issue is his full ice skating. He will never be a great up down wall guy though. His game is down low in the offensive end. Creativity and ice vision and passing already at an elite NHL level. If he came up he would instantly be our best power play player. Still needs defensive work in his own end.
On positive I have seen him play with Matty a few times live and it is crazy how well they fit together. Matty feeds off of him. There is no other player currently in our system who enhances Matty's game like Bracco. At some point if not next season everyone will get to see it too and the shock and awe will be incredible.
But they would only be at full capacity with a fast tough winger who can open up more ice for them to work their magic passing games. They play close together and it is all very short give and go type passes.

If your right that would be great. Hopefully you are right.

 

[TheScandal89]

But does it make sense to Anaheim?

Last year Montour + Ritchie for Nylander was considered a steal for the Ducks. I got laughed at for suggesting it, now the Leafs are the ones getting the steal? I did say Nylander + if needed too...

 

[Leafsfan74]

If he gets an offer sheet that is too much, you let him walk and take the 4 first rounders. That's life in sports. He's a great player but if you don't hold the line (as I said they should have against Nylander, I was very open about trading him for a D Man) at some point you will constantly be treated like a fool every negotiation.

There are no guarantees in sports and this is why once you decide who your core is going to be you pay them sooner rather than later. I'm of the belief an NHL team is far more than one, two or three players. Goal scorers get the big money for a reason, these guys are doing well with endorsements and commercials, benefits they probably wouldn't get in many other cities, so he should take it all into consideration. So, come to a reasonable agreement. You will have a great accountant anyways, don't squeeze a team that's under cap pressure.

Now Marner should get every penny he is worth, but if it's the difference between $4-500k per year to walk, then he has to make that decision. We need more of the kind of love for Toronto that Tavares showed, a guy who wants to win and backs it up with more than empty platitudes.

 

[Bomber0104]

It depends- to be certain- but for 4 consecutive first round picks in the salary cap era, you gotta think about it. Sorry for the lack of poetry

You better have an amazing scouting staff

You should try it more often

 

[TheScandal89]

That Matthews line is way worse then if he had Nylander on his wing. Which is what should have happened this year.

I disagree, Bracco can obviously be switched with Kapanen, but in terms of giving Matthews a guy to get possession and screen the goalie, Ritchie can help. His size and toughness would help Matthews I think.

Bracco might just end up being a poor mans Nylander, but I think he'll make the team in a middle 6 RW role.

 

[MJ65]

The next wave might be after Leafs compete window of the next 5 years.

TB + Bos + Was + Pitt etc from the East all have their stars mostly under cheaper contracts than the Leafs..

With Matthews #2 highest AAV and JT @ #3 highest and if Marner get +$10 mil he will also jump into the top 10 highest.

Having 3 players in the top 10 including #2 and #3 is going to have consequences when it comes to icing a Cup competitive team.

Well that's the reality of new age NHL - let's face it, you do not just trade your elite. I would rather trade Nylander for cheaper contracts or prospects, Marner has proven that he is worth way more then Willy and at a younger age

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Woe were the days when the Leafs didn't have a #1 centre at all; or no #2 after Mats Sundin!

Would you remember when Sundin was injured and dear little Alyn McCauley was left to fill his shoes for four playoff games in the 2002 first-round series against the Islanders? That's how deep the Leafs were at centre-ice then.

How about all those years that Tyler Bozak impersonated a first-line centre for want of a more credible imposter?

Yeah, I've been trying to forget about all that too.

Give me Tavares and Matthews any day. I don't care how much it costs.

So the Leafs have the most expensive top-two centres in the National Hockey League? Bravo! Good for them! I'm ever so glad they're both on the team!

You seem to care more about having 2 elite centres than you do about having the depth to be a good team. Seems strange is all.

 

[Leafsfan74]

To anyone worried about Marner getting an offer, I say don't. In fact, rejoice. If someone wants to give me 4 first rounders, I'm willing to part with a number of players.

I can covert those first rounders into top line, even all star players who are not a good fit on another teams rebuild or what have you. Just wait until the deadline and you can find a number of teams willing to part with very good talent for First Rounders. Even if the risk is that they will be low picks in the first round.

It's a business. We can't fall in love with players who might prefer a few bucks more to be somewhere else.

 

[egd27]

What an exhaustive list this is.



Puts what into perspective? That the cost of keeping your top talent increases as the cap goes up?

In 5 years from now teams will be looking back on us wishing "damn, wish we could have signed our top talent when the cap was that low". It's a constantly-moving target.

5 years from now we will be exactly where we have been for the past year.......wondering what Matthews and Nylander's new deals will look like.

 

[Bomber0104]

To anyone worried about Marner getting an offer, I say don't. In fact, rejoice. If someone wants to give me 4 first rounders, I'm willing to part with a number of players.

I can covert those first rounders into top line, even all star players who are not a good fit on another teams rebuild or what have you. Just wait until the deadline and you can find a number of teams willing to part with very good talent for First Rounders. Even if the risk is that they will be low picks in the first round.

It's a business. We can't fall in love with players who might prefer a few bucks more to be somewhere else.

Exactly this.

4 first rounders and $10+ million to spend in numerous other ways just might actually give the team the breathing room and roster flexibility it needs.

I guess that's why I'm not as spooked by Marner's perceived "leverage" that some posters feel he has.

The Leafs should firmly stand their ground and keep their offer in the single digits.

 

[Advanced stats]

You seem to care more about having 2 elite centres than you do about having the depth to be a good team. Seems strange is all.

Guess what all the recent cup winners and great teams have?

Two great centers and great center depth.
Pittsburgh
Washington
Chicago
Tampa
San Jose


Thank goodness we follow that model.