Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[diceman934]

Ummmm you think he set the market on Nylander?

When he ended up exactly in the comparables and with multiple projections?

Matthews. I guess you could argue maybe? He isn’t the market on 5 year deals. Many players for higher percent on 5 year deals.

You could say he set the market for this year. But he is the clear best player out of this crop.

He is his own Market. Goal scoring franchise C.

Both contracts set the market. Both signed for at or above their value at 8 years deal only they were 5 or 6 year deals.

And as far as goal scoring centers go. I believe JT was the highest goal scoring center this year and Mathews got more then him on less term

 

[bentharbs]

Yeah, but only one gave him 7 million.

It is impossible to know for sure that Willie would not have received a similar - or higher - number had he been dealing with any other GM. Do I believe that every team would have eventually signed him at 7? No. But some would have, I am pretty sure about that (although it is quite impossible to prove, as I noted).

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I disagree, I think its been a gradually movement but if I were to pinpoint a moment the RFA/UFA rules changed irrevocably it would be the Draistaitl contract.

We’ll see for sure with the Marner, Rantanen, Point, and Aho contracts.

Did the market really change to overpaying young elite players? Or was it just 2 or 3 horrible gm’s that are doing this?

Time will tell. Marner shouldn’t make a single PENNY more than a Rantanen.

 

[Legion34]

Both contracts set the market. Both signed for at or above their value at 8 years deal only they were 5 or 6 year deals.

I think we have very different definitions of setting the market

 

[Deebo]

31/31 GMs would have given Nylander more than 5 million. Hindsight is such perfect vision.

Nylander wouldn't have signed for 5M though.

 

[diceman934]

I think we have very different definitions of setting the market

Maybe, but he set the market by giving out 8 year money on 5 or 6 year deals. That is setting the market as they are both over paid for the term of their contracts. The money should have reflected the term and it did not in both cases.

 

[Sypher04]

Yeah. Other than being very similar in points per game, Marner has been the points leader for 2 years, plays the PK and shows the higher YOY improvement. Marner also has higher career playoff points. Had Marner played with better QoT for the two year prior, it would be a slam dunk that that the differences would even be larger

I'm trying to figure out if you somehow read my post as a slight in some way because you came out what feels like on the defensive for Marner. I was literally just saying they're totally different players, zero ulterior motive.

To your comment though, the QoT thing cuts both ways. Marner was held back the first season and a half, Matthews was arguably held back worse this year by his poor linemates

 

[selltrade]

As Bobby Mac said about Nylander... Coming off 2 - 61 point years, he was worth Pasta money. If he sat out the year, the same people now saying Dubas paid too much would be saying Dubas was a idiot for not signing him... They same will hold true for Marner... People will never be happy

 

[bentharbs]

Nylander wouldn't have signed for 5M though.

Not the point of my response. I was referring to a post that suggested he is not worth more than 5 and I said every GM would pay him five. Therefore, he IS worth more than 5; the market determined that. I would say, although I have no real clue, 100% of GMs would have paid him 6, at least half 6.5, and definitely at least one 7. I would also suggest that some GMs would have paid him more...

 

[saffronleaf]

Marner is walking into negotiations saying he outpointed the two 11 AAV players on the team and ran the PP and was a great PK guy and played the most ATOI ... How do you not pay him 11+ AAV

Our PP and PK were abysmal when it mattered. His role on the special teams should only hurt his case.

And yes he had points, but goals matter more. Not hard to rack up a ton of assists when you're playing with arguably top 5 C lord JT.

Also he should consider showing up in the playoffs, which Matthews did.

 

[Deebo]

As Bobby Mac said about Nylander... Coming off 2 - 61 point years, he was worth Pasta money. If he sat out the year, the same people now saying Dubas paid too much would be saying Dubas was a idiot for not signing him... They same will hold true for Marner... People will never be happy

There are those who have made up their mind on Dubas a long time ago, based on his age or how he dresses and other stupid things like that. There is no point in trying to have discussions with those folks.

 

[Nithoniniel]

Maybe, but he set the market by giving out 8 year money on 5 or 6 year deals. That is setting the market as they are both over paid for the term of their contracts. The money should have reflected the term and it did not in both cases.

Nylander got the same kind of money that his 10 closest comparables got on their 5-6 year deals. None of them got 8 years. I don't know a single comparable player who got similar money on an eight year deal.

To your comment though, the QoT thing cuts both ways. Marner was held back the first season and a half, Matthews was arguably held back worse this year by his poor linemates

That was always exaggerated in Marner's case. Playing with JvR and Bozak in soft minutes is a very nice position for a young player to be in. Both of them produced around the same as they always do.

 

[Mr Hockey]

He outpointed our best player by playing with a franchise C all year.

You seriously think: Johnsson-Matthews-Kapanen is a comparable line to Hyman-Tavares-Marner?

Tell me why he doesn't deserve 11 aav?

• Outpointed both 1st OV
• Led the team in PPG
• Led the team in points for 2 years straight
• Helped Tavares have a career high in points and goals
• finished 11'th in NHL points
• Led the team in ATOI
• Runs the PP and is an offensive threat on the PK
• scored 3 fewer goals than Matthews at even strength
• Usually had the hardest matchups
• usually the most exciting player to watch during the leaf game

 

[Mess]

Wonder if there comes a point in time in Dubas mind that it would be better to trade Marner.

Not because he wants to, but its in the best interest of the team and the salary cap going forward based on contract demands.

Or is overpaying and keeping the only option available?

 

[Nithoniniel]

Wonder if there comes a point in time in Dubas mind that it would be better to trade Marner.

Not because he wants to, but its in the best interest of the team and the salary cap going forward based on contract demands.

Or is overpaying and keeping the only option available?

Or we do what most other teams do and find a way to pay him what he's worth.

Still really can't see Mitch going anywhere.

 

[IBeL34f]

Both contracts set the market. Both signed for at or above their value at 8 years deal only they were 5 or 6 year deals.

And as far as goal scoring centers go. I believe JT was the highest goal scoring center this year and Mathews got more then him on less term

Tavares scored goals at a higher rate (G/60) than Matthews did this year, but, over the course of his entire ELC, Matthews scored goals at a higher rate than anyone else in the League. Matthews also produced overall points at a higher rate (P/60) than Tavares this year, while not playing with Marner, and while being only 21-years-old.

Matthews' contract also kicks in a year later, so some inflation should be taken into account when looking solely at AAV.

Just some context to keep in mind.

 

[Buds17]

Wonder if there comes a point in time in Dubas mind that it would be better to trade Marner.

Not because he wants to, but its in the best interest of the team and the salary cap going forward based on contract demands.

Or is overpaying and keeping the only option available?

Think the two sides would have to not be able to come together on a contract at all for a trade to happen. The contract hopefully to be signed may not be the one initially aimed for, but that's the way negotiations can work. I think Plan A is to be top heavy in payroll structure. That might not work, but I can see where that would be the initial aim.

Coming off of a season where Marner led the team in some categories (points, ice time for forwards), a trade would be viewed in a negative light IMO, but the trade return and the rest of the roster would have to be known as well to better evaluate it all. Really not expecting a Marner trade to happen though.

 

[diceman934]

Nylander got the same kind of money that his 10 closest comparables got on their 5-6 year deals. None of them got 8 years. I don't know a single comparable player who got similar money on an eight year deal.


That was always exaggerated in Marner's case. Playing with JvR and Bozak in soft minutes is a very nice position for a young player to be in. Both of them produced around the same as they always do.

His best comparable got 6m for how many years. Ehlers signed for 7 years for less money and no bonuses. Less money and more term.

 

[Pookie]

Wonder if there comes a point in time in Dubas mind that it would be better to trade Marner.

Not because he wants to, but its in the best interest of the team and the salary cap going forward based on contract demands.

Or is overpaying and keeping the only option available?

I don't think there is that point.

Once he's traded, his 5-8 year contract will be known.

The AAV amount today will undoubtedly be surpassed by future contracts for stars and maybe even new CBA rules.

Looking backwards, if Mitch performs as an All Star, Leaf fans and media will lament what could have been ours. This tag will follow Dubas and define his career.

He is better to sign our stars... as other teams seem to be able to do... rather than go on a cheapskate crusade.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Or we do what most other teams do and find a way to pay him what he's worth.

Still really can't see Mitch going anywhere.

This is the correct analysis. Even if another team stretched to pay him 11M per for 8 years he would still make much less overall than here because he would not get the sponsor deals. And his agent and dad already know this info. It is why he would have settled for 9M over 8 years last summer. He did better than expected so now it is 10.5M over a shorter period. But he will get an enormous sponsor package to make him the highest paid Leaf. So people are making a big deal about nothing here. This will get done with little fanfare. All the media types are hoping it gets crazy but it won't.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Or we do what most other teams do and find a way to pay him what he's worth.

Still really can't see Mitch going anywhere.

“What he's worth” is the precise debate.

There will be a reckoning after the current rfa’s are signed this summer. With Nylander and Matthews, there weren’t as clear cut unquestionable comparables. This allowed people to use a lot of spin and rhetoric in order to try and rationalize the dramatic overpayments.

But THIS time, with Marner, there are clear cut comparables. There isn’t enough spin and lies in the WORLD that can rationalize Marner making even a penny more than players like Rantanen.

There will be a reckoning.

 

[hockeywiz542]

HC's Brian Burke says people in Toronto underestimate the tax differential between Canada and the U.S., says it makes a huge difference to even Canadian born players, and thinks the Toronto Maple Leafs have to fight to sign Mitch Marner for more than 5 years.

 

[Mr Hockey]

“What he's worth” is the precise debate.

There will be a reckoning after the current rfa’s are signed this summer. With Nylander and Matthews, there weren’t as clear cut unquestionable comparables. This allowed people to use a lot of spin and rhetoric in order to try and rationalize the dramatic overpayments.

But THIS time, with Marner, there are clear cut comparables. There isn’t enough spin and lies in the WORLD that can rationalize Marner making even a penny more than players like Rantanen.

There will be a reckoning.

Pretty sure Rantanen/Point/etc will be waiting for Marner to sign first, that would be the smart thing to do.

 

[diceman934]

Our PP and PK were abysmal when it mattered. His role on the special teams should only hurt his case.

And yes he had points, but goals matter more. Not hard to rack up a ton of assists when you're playing with arguably top 5 C lord JT.

Also he should consider showing up in the playoffs, which Matthews did.

Mathews 10 goals 3 assist for 13 points in 20 playoff games

Marner 5 goals 12 assists 17 points in 20 playoff games.

One player was on the ice for a lot of goals against in game 7.

 

[Kiwi]

Tell me why he doesn't deserve 11 aav?

• Outpointed both 1st OV
• Led the team in PPG
• Led the team in points for 2 years straight
• Helped Tavares have a career high in points and goals
• finished 11'th in NHL points
• Led the team in ATOI
• Runs the PP and is an offensive threat on the PK
• scored 3 fewer goals than Matthews at even strength
• Usually had the hardest matchups
• usually the most exciting player to watch during the leaf game

• they both scored more goals and play centre, the more important position

• that's nice, assists aren't worth as much as goals contractually though

• he scored mid 60 points last season, so let's control ourselves over that one

• Tavares has had a lot of high scoring seasons, let's not pretend it's all Marner

• that's nice, Kucherov led the league in points and got a 9.5M×8 year UFA contract recently, so 11M?

• don't really care, he's still not our best player

• PP was good, PK was historically bad in the playoffs, so yay for him?

• Matthews was injured for a quarter of the season and still beat his ES goal total by 3

• got eaten alive in the playoffs taking those hardest matchups

• so, this is a contract negotiation, who cares if it "looks good"? should he get extra because of his smile as well?