Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Notsince67]

Shananhan has a lot of faith in Dubas and hitched his wagon to a rookie GM during a crucial time when his franchise building block players needed new contracts.

Not something I would have done and I would have handled all 3 the Amigos differently as I suspect Lou Lam would have also.

Dubas is batting 0-2 on the first signings of WN and AM and I fear Marner is going to hit a grand slam home run on his deal.

I'm expecting a deal >= $10 mil and only 5-6 years in length, with the only real comparable to that contract being Auston Matthews as a reference point, based on past precedence.

Dubas will make Marner the highest paid winger in the game, and on the shortest term (leaving the costly UFA purchase years on the cutting room floor)..

a 10.5MM x 5 offer isn't great but it isn't catastrophic.
I've been really wrong on both Matthews and Nylander. My worry is that they pay Marner in excess of 11MM or offer 10.5 over something stupid like 3 years.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Shananhan has a lot of faith in Dubas and hitched his wagon to a rookie GM during a crucial time when his franchise building block players needed new contracts.

Not something I would have done and I would have handled all 3 the Amigos differently as I suspect Lou Lam would have also.

Dubas is batting 0-2 on the first signings of WN and AM and I fear Marner is going to hit a grand slam home run on his deal.

I'm expecting a deal >= $10 mil and only 5-6 years in length, with the only real comparable to that contract being Auston Matthews as a reference point, based on past precedence.

Dubas will make Marner the highest paid winger in the game, and on the shortest term (leaving the costly UFA purchase years on the cutting room floor)..

How the f*** is this happening. It’s a flat out f***ing outrage.

 

[thewave]

Apples to Oranges my friend... Matthews was a #1 he’s a Center and he scores goals by the boatload (all increase value whether we agree or not)
Marner was #4 if I’m not mistaken a small winger and is pass first (all things that will be used to value him lower than Matthews , again agree with it or not)

I can’t see more than 9-9.5x 6-8

Will other teams potentially OS him to more...I’d say GM’s aren’t doing their jobs if they don’t consider it but the leafs shouldn’t let other franchises dictate their terms...if marner values himself out of Toronto I will certainly be upset about it but the business is what it is...he knows the score if he wants to be in Toronto it’s as simple as that

So? Kucherov was a 2nd rounder and had a 100pts season. Marner just had 94pts. Kuch is 25 MM is 21. This guys getting 10m x 5 bud. Dubas doesn't even factor RFA years.

 

[Mr Hockey]

Better be lower than Kucherov, who is clearly the far superior winger.

Marner is walking into negotiations saying he outpointed the two 11 AAV players on the team and ran the PP and was a great PK guy and played the most ATOI ... How do you not pay him 11+ AAV

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Ummmm you think he set the market on Nylander?

When he ended up exactly in the comparables and with multiple projections?

Matthews. I guess you could argue maybe? He isn’t the market on 5 year deals. Many players for higher percent on 5 year deals.

You could say he set the market for this year. But he is the clear best player out of this crop.

He is his own Market. Goal scoring franchise C.

Depends what you’re calling “comparables”. For example, I think it’s really stupid to claim a proven 34 goal/70 point player is a comparable to a proven 20 goal/60 point player.

If we just lie and say Nylanders comparables are players with MUCH better stats, then you have a point. But that’s just you using spin/lies/rhetoric.

The closest comparable to Nylander was ehler, and Nylanders contract is a complete joke compared to his.

 

[Mess]

We shall see... if he overpays Marner too, well, we won't be competing for a cup in all likelihood.

Funny, Tampa fans think that they should be paying Brayden Point less than $7.5 million, he plays a more important position, and has one less point than Marner the past two years combined.

Not competing for a Cup is the big picture biggest fear here any Leaf fan should have, and experts will confirm having 1/2 your cap locked up in just 4 forwards and needing 18 players for the other 1/2 is not something we have never seen in a Cap world, and hard to imagine is possible finding success with.

Everybody knows that paying your own players more money doesn't make you better as a team, and Matthews + Marner going from < $2 mil combined on ELC to > $20 mil is going to come at a very steep price in terms of competitiveness, because you have to cut that -$18 mil money that you formerly paid your supporting cast.. The reason Leafs have been near the top of the standings the last few years is because the 3 Amigo's were on ELC contracts and producing at high levels for most of that time.. Our Leafs haven't made it out of the 1st round in a salary cap world yet, so how you build your team and spend you cap crucial to finding success, and big raises and dumping depth seems to be heading in the wrong direction.

Now that honeymoon is over and not only are they making big money, their players are making near top of the league AAV $$ as well as JT the #3 highest AAV in addition. Their advantage gone and in fact might be starting with one hand tied behind their back figuratively speaking once the Marner contract comes in and they have the #2 AM, #3 JT and Marner all in the top 10 paid players in the league.

PS. In regards to Point and TB ... I can envision where Kuch @$9.5 is #1, Stamkos at $8.5 mil is #2 and Point should come in just below say something close to $8-$8.25 mil X 8 numbers, with anything less a steal of a contract. I could see Hedman at $7.8 mil being 3rd highest paid and Point coming in #4 as that is where I would want him if I was in TB shoes..

 

[Deebo]

The changing of GMs option is not going to happen. Dubas is just starting out and he's made his bed, now lie in it.

Shanny turning the keys over to Dubas was all about Kyle taking ownership of the 3 Amigos contracts and determining the price he was willing to pay..

These young players are using their leverage and seasoned agents to get the best deals possible and Dubas has been now proven to cave to those demands in time..

Marner holding out for the deal he wants only gets stronger the more time that passes and the closer to July 1st we get, and vice versa for Dubas who starts feeling the heat of increased leverage after that point.

Lou made Dubas' bed by blowing 10.75M on depth pieces and if they lose any good young players, it will be Lou's fault. Period. Anyone who doesn't acknowledge how Lou's signings have handcuffed the team either doesn't understand the cap or is being willfully ignorant.

Nylander wanted Draisaitl money and then he called Dubas at virtually the last minute and accepted his offer of 1.5M less than Leon, How is it Dubas who caved? Now the Leafs have a tradeable asset if it gets to that.

You know what is caving though?

A 3 year deal with an AAV of 6.25M on a 35+ contract with an NMC. He easily could have said "No Thanks" and moved on, but nope, he decided to cave to Marleau's demands and now the Leafs are a tough spot as a result.

How about a 7 year deal to 1st year d-man with. If he didn't get 7 years, what was Zaitsev going to do? Maybe he threatened to go home and Lou caved to his demand of 7 years with a limited NTC.

Lou's blunders have resulted in the Leafs having 2 contracts that appear to be immovable and that are taking up 10.75M of valuable cap space and give the leafs a nothing but a below average third liner and a #4D man.

Yea, but its a couple marginal "over payments" at most that are causing the cap issues.

 

[Trapper]

a 10.5MM x 5 offer isn't great but it isn't catastrophic.
I've been really wrong on both Matthews and Nylander. My worry is that they pay Marner in excess of 11MM or offer 10.5 over something stupid like 3 years.

Having Matthews/Marner/Nylander all UFAs in 5 years with a NMC and/or limited NTC should be a worry. In 4 years, Matthews is in charge. He wants to leave, he walks.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Marner is walking into negotiations saying he outpointed the two 11 AAV players on the team and ran the PP and was a great PK guy and played the most ATOI ... How do you not pay him 11+ AAV

and Dubie shoots back they are number 1 OA first rounders who play centre and lead the team ... you are a roving winger who went 4 OA and are weak on the wall and small ... we love you but we aren't going over 10M AAV for you ... we can get you some juicy sponsors so your dad can tell everyone you make the most of the team though ... and we can talk about giving you a leadership position at camp

 

[Fogelhund]

PS. In regards to Point and TB ... I can envision where Kuch @$9.5 is #1, Stamkos at $8.5 mil is #2 and Point should come in just below say something close to $8-$8.25 mil X 8 numbers, with anything less a steal of a contract. I could see Hedman at $7.8 mil being 3rd highest paid and Point coming in #4 as that is where I would want him if I was in TB shoes..

I don't disagree with where you've placed Point... but then how do we turn around and pay Marner $11 million... something like 50% more than a comparable? That's insanity.

Point gets $7.5, give Marner $9 to account for tax differences... (Which absolutely needs to be dealt with in the next CBA, a flexible cap based on taxation in various jurisdictions).

 

[Deebo]

(Which absolutely needs to be dealt with in the next CBA, a flexible cap based on taxation in various jurisdictions).

I can't see that happening, unfortunately.

Different markets have different advantages, but a large loyal fanbase that provides a higher revenue base than rest of the league is the only one that the NHL seems interested in controlling for.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Not competing for a Cup is the big picture biggest fear here any Leaf fan should have, and experts will confirm having 1/2 your cap locked up in just 4 forwards and needing 18 players for the other 1/2 is not something we have never seen in a Cap world, and hard to imagine is possible finding success with.

Everybody knows that paying your own players more money doesn't make you better as a team, and Matthews + Marner going from < $2 mil combined on ELC to > $20 mil is going to come at a very steep price in terms of competitiveness, because you have to cut that -$18 mil money that you formerly paid your supporting cast.. The reason Leafs have been near the top of the standings the last few years is because the 3 Amigo's were on ELC contracts and producing at high levels for most of that time.. Our Leafs haven't made it out of the 1st round in a salary cap world yet, so how you build your team and spend you cap crucial to finding success, and big raises and dumping depth seems to be heading in the wrong direction.

Now that honeymoon is over and not only are they making big money, their players are making near top of the league AAV $$ as well as JT the #3 highest AAV in addition. Their advantage gone and in fact might be starting with one hand tied behind their back figuratively speaking once the Marner contract comes in and they have the #2 AM, #3 JT and Marner all in the top 10 paid players in the league.

PS. In regards to Point and TB ... I can envision where Kuch @$9.5 is #1, Stamkos at $8.5 mil is #2 and Point should come in just below say something close to $8-$8.25 mil X 8 numbers, with anything less a steal of a contract. I could see Hedman at $7.8 mil being 3rd highest paid and Point coming in #4 as that is where I would want him if I was in TB shoes..

Which is why there will be trades. Also, Marleau comes off after this year, so we that has to be factored in as well (possible savings to go towards a Muzzin contract?).

Leafs are hoping for an expanded salary cap. and they are dangerously close to being a top 2 line heavy team with average (maybe slightly above average, depending on who they keep) 3rd and 4th lines with average to slightly below average Defense. The goal was to roll four strong lines, use speed and special teams to crush the opposition. Team defense has improved, so I think this is one big positive and they aren't in their prime yet.

Honestly, as much as we are concerned, I wouldn't think I'm in a bad position at all as GM of the Leafs. I know what I would have done different and more important, I have my feel for what they should do going forward.

I will repeat for effect, I suggested quite early there is always one team that you have to prepare for, I said the Leafs needed to create the lineup to beat Boston (one reason I would have flipped Nylander). Muzzin helped address in this regard, but they were lacking some of the fight that should have ended that series in 6.

 

[Trapper]

I don't disagree with where you've placed Point... but then how do we turn around and pay Marner $11 million... something like 50% more than a comparable? That's insanity.

Point gets $7.5, give Marner $9 to account for tax differences... (Which absolutely needs to be dealt with in the next CBA, a flexible cap based on taxation in various jurisdictions).

Hard to keep pace if you have 8-10 teams that can pay their core 4/5 million less.

Sure the cap goes up but it goes up for everyone. While you get some relief, they get extra depth.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I don't disagree with where you've placed Point... but then how do we turn around and pay Marner $11 million... something like 50% more than a comparable? That's insanity.

Point gets $7.5, give Marner $9 to account for tax differences... (Which absolutely needs to be dealt with in the next CBA, a flexible cap based on taxation in various jurisdictions).

Dude Point and Tampa are at an impasse. Point at 12M team at 8M. It has been like this for a long time now. Tampa is going to buy out Callahan and trade JT to free up room to sign Point. There is the tax effect but i think both Point and Marner will sign around 10.5M.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

They are getting paid in US dollars which with the Canadian exchange rate is very favorable, a good lawyer and accountant can save a ton of money as well

I think the fawning media coverage and fan base are major players in this

If your told your ******* awesome every minute of the day and deserve huge money because of your sheer awesomeness you start believing it eventually

There's a spoiled, entitled vibe coming off our young guys right now

Ya thats true. The only thing is being in a favourable economy helps the players not the team sign them.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

I mean... I can understand someone who’s followed the nhl for a week or two not understanding that ufa’s have always made more than rfa’s.

But to see someone with 30k posts on a hockey forum not understand that is baffling. Baffling!

It actually really bothers me. For 20 years the leafs have lived off of overpaying ufa’s while they had no elite young players (which were very cheap then).

The very moment, the first time in like 20-30 years, that the leafs have utterly elite young players... that’s the VERY year that the market switches to overpaying elite young players.

This team is cursed.

Completely disagree with your first post, completely agree with your second. You wanted to rake someone over the coals who understood the UFA vs. RFA market changed but then revealed that you already knew this? Why?

 

[egd27]

31/31 GMs would have given Nylander more than 5 million. Hindsight is such perfect vision.

Yeah, but only one gave him 7 million.

 

[Mess]

I don't disagree with where you've placed Point... but then how do we turn around and pay Marner $11 million... something like 50% more than a comparable? That's insanity.

Point gets $7.5, give Marner $9 to account for tax differences... (Which absolutely needs to be dealt with in the next CBA, a flexible cap based on taxation in various jurisdictions).

It is insanity, but that is what the Toronto market is dictating now for Marner based on Dubas setting that market with his JT and AM deals previously.

What we're seeing is the trickle down cause and effect in action here.

After Dubas made Matthews and Tavares the #2 and #3 highest paid players in the game, pretty hard to tell the teams scoring leader Marner the past 2 seasons he needs to take -$2 mil less then his own teammates.

How much someone in TB (Point) or Col (Rantanen) etc is making is of little consequence, when Marner says I'm the one feeding JT for all those goals your paying him $11 mil to score.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

The off-season is the best time to take a break from this place.

Other than missing out on the annual off-season championship which we usually always win, you're not missing much.

LOL. Ya, based on the talk around here after July 1, we won the Cup ..... (again). Evidently the league sees a need for a 2nd Cup each year to be awarded in June.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Completely disagree with your first post, completely agree with your second. You wanted to rake someone over the coals who understood the UFA vs. RFA market changed but then revealed that you already knew this? Why?

Because Tavares was signed before that change occurred. And I’m actually not fully convinced it even has changed. It might just be that Dubas sucks and this is a narrative leaf fans have started.

If it does actually change like that, refer to my 2nd post. This team is just cursed.

 

[Ryan Michaels]

Because Tavares was signed before that change occurred.

I disagree, I think its been a gradually movement but if I were to pinpoint a moment the RFA/UFA rules changed irrevocably it would be the Draistaitl contract.

 

[Kiwi]

Ya thats true. The only thing is being in a favourable economy helps the players not the team sign them.

It weakens the tax advantage angle though if it's being used in negotiations

 

[BAM]

Marner is walking into negotiations saying he outpointed the two 11 AAV players on the team and ran the PP and was a great PK guy and played the most ATOI ... How do you not pay him 11+ AAV

He outpointed our best player by playing with a franchise C all year.

You seriously think: Johnsson-Matthews-Kapanen is a comparable line to Hyman-Tavares-Marner?

 

[diceman934]

Sparks is under contract and everybody knows Dubas is a fan, he could certainly get an opportunity in camp even if Babcock thinks he sucks (which is probably the correct read on him)

At no point have I ever said Marner isn't a fantastic player, that doesn't however mean he can't price himself off the team, highly unlikely I'll admit but it's still possible if he's a big enough headache in negotiations and forces managements hand

They need Marner signed so they can work out the cap situation around Kapanen, Johnsson and the entire defensive core, there is a timeline and if Marner slow walks negotiations and fights for every penny management is going to have some tough decisions to make

You can't have one player put you over a barrel so you can't sort the rest of the team out before the season starts, the team is bigger than one extremely important player in this regard

You mean like Nylander did.

 

[diceman934]

Better be lower than Kucherov, who is clearly the far superior winger.

Mathews should have been lower as well but he is not. Internal cap is the issue not what other players got.