Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Throw More Waffles]

Muzzin gets traded at the next deadline. Not an issue

Our defence would most certainly be an issue.

And not a minor issue. Like, one of the biggest issues in human history type of issue.

 

[Nineteen67]

View attachment 222951

That’s a big dude.

 

[Nineteen67]

Muzzin gets traded at the next deadline. Not an issue

If they are trading Muzzin at the TDL, they likely lose all playoff gates.....I would say that’s an issue.

 

[Notsince67]

You have to.....
13 is just too rich, waaaaay too rich.

For sure it is but losing Marner to that kind of offer sheet when there was a high likelihood of signing him for 8 to 8.5MM last summer is enough for Dubas to get dismissed. This kind of incompetance cannot be tolerated. The team is better with Marner. 4 first rounders is a consolidation prize because the teams cap structure is so screwed, they cant afford another scewup

 

[diceman934]

If he's offered over 10,148,302 by somebody with an offer-sheet and signs it, I'd take the 4 1st round picks and the cap space by letting him go, I'd match anything below it however

Not that I'd let it get to the point of him getting one, if he's not signed by the draft i think you have to trade him



Not if he prices himself off the team he's not, which he's flirting with right now it would seem



Nobody knows that, it's unlikely but not impossible

No way Sparks is a Leaf Next Year. I think he is done even as a Marlie.

Marner is going no where as he will be signed for what he is worth. They are not taking 4 first round picks for him in hopes to replace him. They will trade others to make the cap hit work. You simply do not let a player like him go .

 

[HoweHullOrr]

First comment - good job

Other comments:

Why would Hainsey do that? To be charitable? If he gets paid even $50 k more (thus $1.55m), your over.

Hope the blueline that you identified in your roster holds up. Risky unless everything falls into place perfectly.

Liljegren, Bracco, Moore, Rosen all could get performance bonuses. I guess we can kick that can down the road ...... again.

Not hard to envision a regression next year unless everything unfolds perfectly.

Question - Has anybody noticed that on CapFriendly that the "projected cap space" number keeps increasing over time. When I checked about 3-4 weeks ago, it was $3.x m. On April 24th it was $4.5 m. Today its $5.3 m.

Seems like its a formula based on time - just a hunch. Anybody have any ideas on why this occurs?

Also not hard to envision us being one of the top teams in the League, like the last 2 years.

I guess if we're talking about the regular season, then yes. Playoffs - not so far & different matter.

BTW - Did you read the bolded parts of my post?

Question - Has anybody noticed that on CapFriendly that the "projected cap space" number keeps increasing over time. When I checked about 3-4 weeks ago, it was $3.x m. On April 24th it was $4.5 m. Today its $5.3 m.

Seems like its a formula based on time - just a hunch. Anybody have any ideas on why this occurs?

 

[FraumBallard]

Therein lies the trade off, next year's team will not be as good as this year's team.

So when I put on my tin foil hat, it tells me that since next year is cap hell, Dubas keeps Babcock around.

By January, the angry mob will be positively frothing at the mouth at Babcock, and Dubas can give him the axe and insert Keefe mid season in a no lose situation.

If the team gets better, he's the hero, if not, it's on Babcock.

The following year, Marleau is gone, Liljegren or Sandin (or both) are ready, maybe another Marlie as well, the cap raises, and things are much rosier.

All that and Dubas rids himself of Babcock and inserts his guy Sheldon and buys himself at least 2-3 more years.

You assume Leaf fans ignore the massive incompetence of Wonder Boy.
I doubt it.

 

[AreBe]

The compensation is averaged over 5 years correct?
So for a team to stay in the bolded bracket the max they could offer is 5 x 10.148302 or 7 x 7.24879.
In other words any team willing to offer sheet MM better be ready to pay him 11+ mill x 7 years AND give up 4 first rounders because I get the feeling the Leafs would be comfortable with giving him 10x8 at this point. MM isnt going anywhere...

Imagine, if you will, a hockey barren wasteand. Imagine Harold Ballard of the past. Imagine, if you will, the New York Knicks of the NHL- today's Edmonton Oilers

First overall, first overall, first overall, picks, over and over again, to the technocrat run Toronto Maple Leafs, Dubas, watching year after year of Nylander and Matthews as line-mates compete for MVP and Lady Byng, Leafs Nation nightmare,

Sure, lost Marner for 4 firsts: 3 rookies of the year, 2 Norris winners, and 1 MVP, the year it didn't go to Nylaner or Matthews, and so Leafs Nation happy with the Stanley Cups but would rather the Leafs not out skate and out talent their opponents, and it's great the Leafs are winning with skill and analytics but there just aren't enough grinders, "Maybe one less cup for some good grinders. I know I would do it, " the common complaint on HF Boards. Leafs Nation: nothing but a bunch of good thing spoilers!

And why all this success? 2 reasons, (1) Payment today for tomorrow's results was analytics based genius moves that because of rampant inflation in the salary cap resulted in what were seemingly expensive deals at first into bargains and avoided paying today for yesterday's results and tomorrow's aging and diminishing returns and (2) making a qualifying offer to Marner so that if anyone were to take him, they would both give-up 4 consecutive first round picks and be out 10.5 million to one player. Dubas' age of reason and analytics delivers the hardware, and only fans of Edmonton and peculiarly Leafs Nation see it as psychological warfare

 

[Mickey Marner]

The only teams that have the cap space and are a desirable location are Colorado, San Jose, Columbus and arguably Philadelphia. San Jose and Columbus are only there if Panarin, Duchene and Karlsson walk. Like, I know Habs fans have wet dreams about offer-sheeting Marner, but he's not signing with their mediocre club.

I wouldn't worry about Marner, we're willing to pay him $15,000,000 July 1st. Not many other teams have that clout.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Sure, lost Mariner for

(2) making a qualifying offer to Mariner

Mariner?

 

[Kiwi]

No way Sparks is a Leaf Next Year. I think he is done even as a Marlie.

Marner is going no where as he will be signed for what he is worth. They are not taking 4 first round picks for him in hopes to replace him. They will trade others to make the cap hit work. You simply do not let a player like him go .

Never say never, Sparks will be fighting for a job in the pre-season, it's not inconceivable he wins it

If the reports are true and he thinks he deserves Matthews horrendous contract I seriously doubt he's remaining on this team, he's not even close to worth that (Matthews isn't either by the way) and that would be the definition of pricing yourself out of the market

I hope he signs something acceptable and we keep him (he's a fantastic player) but I've ceased to expect anything resononable with any of these kids

 

[hamzarocks]

You really think the Avs day agree to 11 mil for Rantanen? I don’t think in a million years they would do that.

They are a team on the verge of being a perennial cup contender. The Avs found two elite players with mack and rantanen who have insane chemistry. They can afford rantanen at a high end hit if a offer sheet comes. Getting 4 1sts is not good value for guys like marner, Point, rantanen as the earliest time you'll see the first help you is 2 years from the signing and for a team like the Avs and Leafs who want to win they might not be willing to wait(also the fact that those 4 1sts are no guarantee to be anywhere near as good as those RFAs or be drafted high enough (top5) every year). A 11 million offersheet should be an easy match for the avalanche.

 

[supsens]

There is no reason for him to be signed for more than either Stone or Kucherov. I hate how this has spun into something more.

Career high 73 point Mark Stone? or Stevy Y the greatest GM that convinced kuch to take a massive discount and we need to change the cap because places with taxes would never get him that cheap?
Talk about spin

 

[AreBe]

Mariner?

Spell checker hell
Looks good, like relying on the eye test, celebrating that good grinder sitting in the penalty box, look at that kid, look at him thrash about and yell, they practice that. Get in the penalty box. Sit down. Throw stick. Stand up, swear at ref. Sit down, thrash about, swear some more. Watch other team score on power play, skate back to bench looking angry, be hero to Leafs Nation. Skill and speed disparager,

At least we might let Marner go for 4 consecutive first round picks and rely on analytics to hit gold in the draft. At least we may pay for tomorrow's increasing returns at, in the future, yesterday's pre- inflationary prices! A thinking man's way of doing things- Leafs Nation does not think it is so swell.

Those who hate analytics and spread sheets! Those dinosaurs! Do they not know that the NHL is moving away from Post Concussion Syndrome and you better believe it NHL head office wants no part of such a workplace negligence class action claim, "We were instructed to hit them hard into the boards! And if it knocked the other guy out, great! " Can you not see the zeros being added to the check? Someone who does not want to pay for tomorrow's success today but wait for inflation to run its course is nothing but talent loathing conspirator!

The law of increasing returns is the opposite of the law of decreasing returns. Where the law of diminishing returns operates, every additional investment of capital and labour yields less than proportionate returns.
But, in the case of the law of increasing returns, the return is more than proportionate.

Law of Increasing Returns (Explained With Diagram)

 

[supsens]

Leafs getting their core signed up before Seattle and new TV deal is quite optimal.

Also stop trying to trade Nylander because he's a very important piece.

I wonder if the tv deal drives up the cap or the players decide to drop the escrow and get what they signed for.

 

[egd27]

Our defence would most certainly be an issue.

And not a minor issue. Like, one of the biggest issues in human history type of issue.

Classic D.O.

 

[IBeL34f]

I guess if we're talking about the regular season, then yes. Playoffs - not so far & different matter.

BTW - Did you read the bolded parts of my post?

Question - Has anybody noticed that on CapFriendly that the "projected cap space" number keeps increasing over time. When I checked about 3-4 weeks ago, it was $3.x m. On April 24th it was $4.5 m. Today its $5.3 m.

Seems like its a formula based on time - just a hunch. Anybody have any ideas on why this occurs?

I hadn't seen that part, no, sorry. I'm not actually sure what that's about - Have you noticed the Projected Cap Hit changing at the same time, or just the Projected Cap Space?

As for the Playoffs, I honestly believe that this core just needs to continue growing in order to get to the next level. This is the first time that expectations have been so high for this group, and they were still technically the underdogs going into Game 1 - I'm not ready to blame the lack of success on make-up yet, and think that development, more-so than personnel changes, will be what makes this team a winner in the future.

 

[egd27]

You assume Leaf fans ignore the massive incompetence of Wonder Boy.
I doubt it.

You think?
I think KD has the backing of growing analytic community and every fan that doesn't want to associate themselves with the "old guard"

Anyway it was just meant to be an off the wall conspiracy theory

 

[FraumBallard]

You think?
I think KD has the backing of growing analytic community and every fan that doesn't want to associate themselves with the "old guard"

Anyway it was just meant to be an off the wall conspiracy theory

Yeah.
I get it.
Just my opinion.

 

[Superstar]

Matt Duchene is putting on a show in these playoffs...5 goals, 9 pts in 7 games...will probably get $9 million per as a UFA centre...but hey, our awesome RFA winger is asking $11 to $12 million?! Man, this young core is losing perspective! What a gong show this franchise is turning into...only in Toronto!

Also, I thought I heard that Paul Marner during the regular season touted that if his son Mitch gets 100 pts, he should be paid $10 million...so Marner gets 94 pts, and instead of $9.4 million, they are screaming $11 million plus now?! Such a crock of sh!t!

 

[Bomber0104]

Classic D.O.

That guy was legendary

 

[Throw More Waffles]

They are a team on the verge of being a perennial cup contender. The Avs found two elite players with mack and rantanen who have insane chemistry. They can afford rantanen at a high end hit if a offer sheet comes. Getting 4 1sts is not good value for guys like marner, Point, rantanen as the earliest time you'll see the first help you is 2 years from the signing and for a team like the Avs and Leafs who want to win they might not be willing to wait(also the fact that those 4 1sts are no guarantee to be anywhere near as good as those RFAs or be drafted high enough (top5) every year). A 11 million offersheet should be an easy match for the avalanche.

I looked at the avs forum and they seem to think he'll sign for 9 mil long term. Many of them specifically state "our gm isn't Dubas, so it shouldn't be too much".
Once again the leafs are the joke of the league. Didn't take long...

 

[New Liskeard]

At the end of the day, if Dubas does not move NYlander or Marleau (we know Marleau wont be going) and the Leafs loose Marner or one of Kap or Johnsson it would be an epic failure and a disgrace to the Maple Leafs. I would ask Dubas to submit his resignation effective immediately.

 

[Leafsfan74]

They are a team on the verge of being a perennial cup contender. The Avs found two elite players with mack and rantanen who have insane chemistry. They can afford rantanen at a high end hit if a offer sheet comes. Getting 4 1sts is not good value for guys like marner, Point, rantanen as the earliest time you'll see the first help you is 2 years from the signing and for a team like the Avs and Leafs who want to win they might not be willing to wait(also the fact that those 4 1sts are no guarantee to be anywhere near as good as those RFAs or be drafted high enough (top5) every year). A 11 million offersheet should be an easy match for the avalanche.

I don't think the Leafs would even use one pick for themselves. They would be shipped out, possibly along with a current player or mid level prospect to pick up 2-3 very good players that would improve the roster.

One player at 11M or 3 at 18-20M total who add serious depth and upgrades (assuming Leafs would trade other salaries). I'd prefer the latter if I had a choice with the current crop of very good Leaf talent. If it were the NBA, the best player wins, in the NHL, depth within the team makes a world of difference, and/or addressing a positional need. This years playoffs proves this.

I think he will be signed, I just hope the Leafs have set an honest internal maximum they are willing to go. I am comfortable with both outcomes as long as they use the draft picks wisely to add to the team for immediate benefit.

Also, some have suggested Marner shouldn't be the guy to take the hit on his salary. As much as in fairness he shouldn't, him and in particular his agent, must understand the economics of the NHL and the cap. He is the one who didn't want to negotiate during the year. That's his right and prerogative. However, don't think you aren't rolling the dice on staying with the team at the price you want when you wait so late. Once the money is spent, you can't get back under the cap.

 

[Ruggle]

Half the cap on four forwards lmao