Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Deebo]

And Nylander being overpaid, and Mathews being overpaid, and possibly Mitch being overpaid (not to mention Kappy and AJ if they come back), lets not pretend that Marleau is the only issue with our cap right now.

I'm not pretending, Marleau is BY FAR the biggest problem on the cap, there is no question about that and if they are able to make him disappear, there will be no cap problems.

I don't agree that Matthews and Nylander are significant over payments. If Nylander was 6.25M and Matthews was 10.75M, which is about the best they could have hoped for, you're talking about ~1.5M in savings over. With those savings, there is still cap problems

Marleau, on the other hand is 6.25M and losing him alone would likely solve everything. Add in Zaitsev and that is 10.75M. Those are the cap issues. 10.75M for two players that will contribute very little.

Marginal at most over payments to core pieces don't cause major cap issues. Huge over payments to support pieces are what cause problems.

Marner, Kapanen and AJ haven't been signed and I see no reason to think that they are going to be significant over payments.

Especially the latter two. If AJ and/or Kapanen demand too much, they should be shipped out. If Dubas gives either of them bloated deals, then they become cap issues and I'll be the first to criticize Dubas for it.

 

[Eric Bungay]

Mitch is retiring a Leaf

I got that same feeling ...but I dont think Matthew's will !!!!!!

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Hopefully Dubas is able to bring in someone to give Liljegren some real competition for the bottom pair RD spot.

Dont think I want to see Hainsey on the top pair anymore. I think its likely one of Kapanen, Johnsson or Kadri is traded to get a RHD that can play with Rielly.

Ya I think management may keep Zaitsev and trade a forward or two. If Zaitsev ends up a 2nd pairing defender he is being paid fairly this year and will be on a good deal in a few years. I think Zaitsev is a #4 to be honest, plays very tough minutes.

However I wouldnt trade Kadri without a center coming back in some sort of deal. Nylander wasnt paid 7 million a year to play on the third line, he should be Matthews winger for the next 5 years. From a financial point of view it makes sense too (i.e put they guys already tied down long term together who are known to produce together). That leaves Kap or AJ and I personally would sign AJ to a bridge (he is a LW) and see what defender Kap+Prospects can return.

 

[IBeL34f]

No way Sparks is a Leaf next year.

Ok.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Well lets just play devils advocate for a second here and take the NYR.

- They currently sit at 17 players under contract for 2019-20 with $17,536,391 free space to spend..
- They also have 3 X 1st round picks this year their own #2OA (after winning draft lottery) Dallas for Mats Zuccarello and Winnipeg for Kevin Hayes.
- OS timing would be July 1st so the 2019 entry have already passed.

We know NYR like the Leafs, money is no option affordability wise, they has lots of free cap to offersheet a player giving him $12 mil or more if the like..

Since they will be picking 3X times in this years 2019 draft in the 1st round alone including the prized #2OA.. The NYR also picked 3 X times in the 1st round last year in 2018 as well.. So that is 6 X 1st round picks in this year + last combined.

This to me would make the NYR a prime OS threat even it meant giving up 4 X 1st rounders from 2020-2023.

I see. That would all but assure he is gone if they did that. However, I don't think teams are going to offer him Matthews money. He was slightly overpaid as it is. We have to think the comparison is a much lower number.

Also, I imagine teams looking to grab him would feel they are one star forward away from making a deep run, not just squeak into the playoffs. They would essentially allow the Leafs to free up cap space AND have picks to use for trades.

I just think 4 first round picks is reserved for generational players like Ovechkin, Crosby, or McDavid in their prime (or who are able to be picked up first in the draft, thus, 3 years of low salary control for 4 1st rounders is a steal) who are playmakers AND dynamic finishers who could almost do it on their own every night. This kind of green isn't for stars who have arrived but may not achieve the same success on a different line.

If I am wrong so be it, I would gladly take the draft picks.

 

[ITM]

I got that same feeling ...but I dont think Matthew's will !!!!!!

Maybe McDavid offsets that?

 

[Eric Bungay]

One can only dream...lol cant let my self go there that would put me on cloud nine ...lol

 

[Chris18820]

We know NYR like the Leafs, money is no option affordability wise, they has lots of free cap to offersheet a player giving him $12 mil or more if the like..

Since they will be picking 3X times in this years 2019 draft in the 1st round alone including the prized #2OA.. The NYR also picked 3 X times in the 1st round last year in 2018 as well.. So that is 6 X 1st round picks in this year + last combined.

This to me would make the NYR a prime OS threat even it meant giving up 4 X 1st rounders from 2020-2023.

Lets just say the Rangers offered him 12x7, would Mitch Marner really accept that offer and leave his boyhood team and city he grew up in rather than take a 10.5x8 that the Leafs would offer him? He better not plan to show his face in the city again. At least Lebron left Cleveland because he wanted to win.

I dont see MM in anything but a Leafs jersey for the rest of his career...

 

[Kiwi]

The most likely OS threat if there is one would come at the bolded range of $10.148 mil (averaged over 5 years with compensation at 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd..

Draft pick compensation 2019-20 season

$1,339,575 or less	No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659	Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322	Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980	First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641	First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302	Four first-round picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That would also be a range Leafs would match so Mitch essentially knows he is getting $10 mil either for the Leafs or someone else.

If he's offered over 10,148,302 by somebody with an offer-sheet and signs it, I'd take the 4 1st round picks and the cap space by letting him go, I'd match anything below it however

Not that I'd let it get to the point of him getting one, if he's not signed by the draft i think you have to trade him

Mitch is retiring a Leaf

Not if he prices himself off the team he's not, which he's flirting with right now it would seem

No way Sparks is a Leaf next year.

Nobody knows that, it's unlikely but not impossible

 

[Jozay]

Pretty obvious whats going on here. Marner wants 11.5, Leafs want 9.5. Both sides know they'll meet half way.

 

[ULF_55]

If he's offered over 10,148,302 by somebody with an offer-sheet and signs it, I'd take the 4 1st round picks and the cap space by letting him go, I'd match anything below it however

Not that I'd let it get to the point of him getting one, if he's not signed by the draft i think you have to trade him

Not if he prices himself off the team he's not, which he's flirting with right now it would seem

Nobody knows that, it's unlikely but not impossible

If he isn't signed before July 1st., I could see the Leafs kicking tires on the best UFA's out there being willing to go to 9 on a deal and move Marner for a stud on defense with some peripherals going both ways. And they making other adjustments in the bottom 6.

 

[Mess]

Lets just say the Rangers offered him 12x7, would Mitch Marner really accept that offer and leave his boyhood team and city he grew up in rather than take a 10.5x8 that the Leafs would offer him? He better not plan to show his face in the city again. At least Lebron left Cleveland because he wanted to win.

I dont see MM in anything but a Leafs jersey for the rest of his career...

$12 X 7 = $84 mil vs $10.5 X 8 = $84 so both contract amounts are the same, but the first deal is much better for Marner as he gets that same amount over a shorter period of time.

I would look at those 2 offers and think I'm taking about a $15 mil discount to stay in TO.

Here is the logic behind that (because of the 1 less year service) .. In 7 years after the 1st contract $12 X 7 expires he would be a UFA at age 28.. What would that UFA 1st year look like $14-15 mil per season forecasting 7 years into the future?.

So the first offer of $12 X 7 ($84 mil) should factor in +1 more UFA rate year so both contracts are equal on term of 8 years to compare them fairly. Think of it as adding fractions and finding a common denominator (ie 8 years).

So you have an OS of $12 mil X 7 + 1 year of UFA level at ~ $15 mil thereafter = $99 mil over 8 years [= $12.375 AAV] vs $10.5 mil X 8 [=$10.5 AAV] to stay, while leaving nearly $2 mil in lost potential wages per year behind.

Leaf would essentially need to offer Mitch $12.375 mil X 8 years to match the $12 mil X 7 years OS (plus 1 year UFA thereafter earning potential)..

 

[Crysis]

9.00m x 6 or 9.25m x 7 or 9.50m x 8

If he won't sign any of them then let him sit and hope for an offer sheet to snag the four first rounders. This has to be the hill Dubas lives and dies on.
Will this team be ready to compete next season? I'd say the window starts in 2020/2021 assuming our d prospects pan out.

 

[Kiwi]

If he isn't signed before July 1st., I could see the Leafs kicking tires on the best UFA's out there being willing to go to 9 on a deal and move Marner for a stud on defense with some peripherals going both ways. And they making other adjustments in the bottom 6.

This can't drag on, we need to be proactive and not let other organizations force us into situations that aren't in our favor

So the Marner situation needs to be cleaned up by the draft, he signs or he's traded

Anything else would be a dereliction of duty imo

 

[Menzinger]

$12 X 7 = $84 mil vs $10.5 X 8 = $84 so both contract amounts are the same, but the first deal is much better for Marner as he gets that same amount over a shorter period of time.

I would look at those 2 offers and think I'm taking about a $15 mil discount to stay in TO.

Here is the logic behind that (because of the 1 less year service) .. In 7 years after the 1st contract $12 X 7 expires he would be a UFA at age 28.. What would that UFA 1st year look like $14-15 mil per season forecasting 7 years into the future?.

So the first offer of $12 X 7 ($84 mil) should factor in +1 more UFA rate year so both contracts are equal on term of 8 years to compare them fairly. Think of it as adding fractions and finding a common denominator (ie 8 years).

So you have an OS of $12 mil X 7 + 1 year of UFA level at ~ $15 mil thereafter = $99 mil over 8 years [= $12.375 AAV] vs $10.5 mil X 8 [=$10.5 AAV] to stay, while leaving nearly $2 mil in lost potential wages per year behind.

Leaf would essentially need to offer Mitch $12.375 mil X 8 years to match the $12 mil X 7 years OS (plus 1 year UFA thereafter earning potential)..

The simple answer to this iset him walk and then spend tha capspace in free agency.

If the Rags GM loses his mind and thinks a winger in this league not named Kane or Ovechkin is actually worth 12 million then let them have him

It of course won't happen because offersheet literally haven't been signed since 2013

 

[Nineteen67]

9.00m x 6 or 9.25m x 7 or 9.50m x 8

If he won't sign any of them then let him sit and hope for an offer sheet to snag the four first rounders. This has to be the hill Dubas lives and dies on.
Will this team be ready to compete next season? I'd say the window starts in 2020/2021 assuming our d prospects pan out.

And goalie prospects. I wouldn’t re-sign Andersen after 20/21

 

[Mess]

This can't drag on, we need to be proactive and not let other organizations force us into situations that aren't in our favor

So the Marner situation needs to be cleaned up by the draft, he signs or he's traded

Anything else would be a dereliction of duty imo

Its also a double edged sword for the Leafs if he doesn't sign by July 1st, because Dubas also can't get AJ and Kappy deals done first as those would eat into limited Leafs cap space and then make matching any OS or fitting Marner more difficult.

Marner has to go first, before anybody else of significance so all 3 of Marner, Kappy and Johnsson could head into UFA season unsigned. As well as prevent Leafs from going UFA shopping for Marner's replacement.

It might be more likely Kapanen gets an OS if that happens as a team could offer KK a $4 mil deal per and give up a 2nd round pick comp and Leafs couldn't match even if they wanted due to cap space limitations. Where $2,029,660 to $4,059,322 = Second-round pick

 

[The Apologist]

The simple answer to this iset him walk and then spend tha capspace in free agency.

If the Rags GM loses his mind and thinks a winger in this league not named Kane or Ovechkin is actually worth 12 million then let them have him

It of course won't happen because offersheet literally haven't been signed since 2013

I would put Mitch in the same category as Kane.
I think the Leafs would deal Willie before theyd entertain dealing Mitch personally. I'd rather pay Marner 10-11 than 7 to Willie any day of the week. Don't think anyone is giving Mitch 12.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Gardiner (UFA), Zaitsev and Brown (trades) are the only players removed, with Hainsey brought back on a cheap 1-year deal.

First comment - good job

Other comments:

Why would Hainsey do that? To be charitable? If he gets paid even $50 k more (thus $1.55m), your over.

Hope the blueline that you identified in your roster holds up. Risky unless everything falls into place perfectly.

Liljegren, Bracco, Moore, Rosen all could get performance bonuses. I guess we can kick that can down the road ...... again.

Not hard to envision a regression next year unless everything unfolds perfectly.

Question - Has anybody noticed that on CapFriendly that the "projected cap space" number keeps increasing over time. When I checked about 3-4 weeks ago, it was $3.x m. On April 24th it was $4.5 m. Today its $5.3 m.

Seems like its a formula based on time - just a hunch. Anybody have any ideas on why this occurs?

 

[IBeL34f]

Why would Hainsey do that? To be charitable? If he gets paid even $50 k more (thus $1.55m), your over.

Hope the blueline that you identified in your roster holds up. Risky unless everything falls into place perfectly.

Liljegren, Bracco, Moore, Rosen all could get performance bonuses. I guess we can kick that can down the road ...... again.

Not hard to envision a regression next year unless everything unfolds perfectly.

Also not hard to envision us being one of the top teams in the League, like the last 2 years.

 

[Mess]

The simple answer to this is let him walk and then spend the cap space in free agency.

If the Rags GM loses his mind and thinks a winger in this league not named Kane or Ovechkin is actually worth 12 million then let them have him

It of course won't happen because offersheet literally haven't been signed since 2013

Never say Never !!!

What if a team like Edmonton gets desperate for team success and already have 2 X elite Cs in McDavid and Draisaitl the #2 and #4 OA scorers from last year, under contract for the next 7 years... They've been desperately looking for wingers..

An Edmonton offersheet for Marner at +$11 mil X 7, to land him, by promising Mitch he will be playing with Connor together.. If Marner gets 94 points playing with JT how many would he got riding shotgun with McDavid, and how many more points would Connor get?

Maybe 4 X 1st round picks is worth finding that answer out for Edmonton. What do they have to lose other than some draft capital ?

 

[Notsince67]

I got that same feeling ...but I dont think Matthew's will !!!!!!

Mcjesus coming over after 7 more

 

[Bigmarycombo]

If he's offered over 10,148,302 by somebody with an offer-sheet and signs it, I'd take the 4 1st round picks and the cap space by letting him go, I'd match anything below it however

Not that I'd let it get to the point of him getting one, if he's not signed by the draft i think you have to trade him



Not if he prices himself off the team he's not, which he's flirting with right now it would seem



Nobody knows that, it's unlikely but not impossible

Leafs will 100 per cent not trade Marner

If cap becomes a problem you look at your best lineup and drop from there

Matthews
Marner
Tavares
Nylander

One of these is not like the other

Nylander will 100 per cent be traded before Marner

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

The simple answer to this iset him walk and then spend tha capspace in free agency.

If the Rags GM loses his mind and thinks a winger in this league not named Kane or Ovechkin is actually worth 12 million then let them have him

It of course won't happen because offersheet literally haven't been signed since 2013

Mitch is likely not given that offersheet until all elite UFAs are off the market.

 

[GardinerTheForward]

Never say Never !!!

What if a team like Edmonton gets desperate for team success and already have 2 X elite Cs in McDavid and Draisaitl the #2 and #4 OA scorers from last year, under contract for the next 7 years... They've been desperately looking for wingers..

An Edmonton offersheet for Marner at +$11 mil X 7, to land him, by promising Mitch he will be playing with Connor together.. If Marner gets 94 points playing with JT how many would he got riding shotgun with McDavid, and how many more points would Connor get?

Maybe 4 X 1st round picks is worth finding that answer out for Edmonton. What do they have to lose other than some draft capital ?

Damn I’ll take the 3 first overalls out of those 4 years and another first