Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Suntouchable13]

I mean just about every single hockey analyst said he was over paid. Called the "best contract" every signed by a player. I love Matthews...... LOVE Matthews..... but he is way over paid. IMO, for 5 years, @11.6 is a better contract than McDavid. Matthews is not close to McDavid. Almost nobody is.
I don't mind 11.6, but that should have been for at least 7 years.

Nylander was 500k over paid, Matthews is 1m over paid (based on term), and I will guess Marner will be in the 1mil area as well. 2.5mil over payment is a lot on 3 players.

It really starts adding up with every mistake.

If it will eliminate the Leafs from the middle free agent class, then so be it. We don't need any more Marleau's, and even worse, Clarksons.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Kadri
Marleau
Zaitsev
Brown
Gardiner
Hainsey

Not leafs next year is my guess

Ideally, Kadri is gone. I am sick of his dumb ass, but we do not have much centre depth beyond the 3 we have. He may have to stay.

 

[IBeL34f]

Marleau (6.25) - Tavares (11) - Marner (10.5) = 27.75
Hyman (2.25) - Matthews (11.634) - Nylander (6.962,366) = 20.846.366
Johnsson (2.5) - Kadri (4.5) - Kapanen (3) = 10
Moore (.775) - Gauthier (.675) - Bracco (.842,500) = 2.292,500
Petan (.775)

Forwards = 61.663,866

Muzzin (4) - Rielly (5) = 9
Dermott (.863,333) - Hainsey (1.5) = 2.363,333
Rosen (.75) - Liljegren (894,166) = 1.644,166
Borgman (.7) - Holl (.675) = 1.375

Defense = 14.382,499

Andersen (5)
Sparks (.75)

Goalies = 5.75

Kessel (1.2)
Horton (LTIR)

Spares = 1.2

TOTAL = 82.996,365

What's everyone freaking out about again?

 

[Suntouchable13]

Marleau (6.25) - Tavares (11) - Marner (10.5) = 27.75
Hyman (2.25) - Matthews (11.634) - Nylander (6.962,366) = 20.846.366
Johnsson (2.5) - Kadri (4.5) - Kapanen (3) = 10
Moore (.775) - Gauthier (.675) - Bracco (.842,500) = 2.292,500
Petan (.775)

Forwards = 61.663,866

Muzzin (4) - Rielly (5) = 9
Dermott (.863,333) - Hainsey (1.5) = 2.363,333
Rosen (.75) - Liljegren (894,166) = 1.644,166
Borgman (.7) - Holl (.675) = 1.375

Defense = 14.382,499

Andersen (5)
Sparks (.75)

Goalies = 5.75

Kessel (1.2)
Horton (LTIR)

Spares = 1.2

TOTAL = 82.996,365

What's everyone freaking out about again?

I'd be freaking out seeing Marleau on the top line. That's awful. I don't know I can stomach another season of Marleau getting significant ice time.

 

[IBeL34f]

I'd be freaking out seeing Marleau on the top line. That's awful. I don't know I can stomach another season of Marleau getting significant ice time.

If I had it re-arranged as:
Hyman - Tavares - Marner
Johnsson - Matthews - Nylander
Marleau - Kadri - Kapanen

Would that change how you feel? You're complaining about optics, which is a far cry from the "cap hell" everyone else seems to be worried about.

 

[Advanced stats]

Marleau (6.25) - Tavares (11) - Marner (10.5) = 27.75
Hyman (2.25) - Matthews (11.634) - Nylander (6.962,366) = 20.846.366
Johnsson (2.5) - Kadri (4.5) - Kapanen (3) = 10
Moore (.775) - Gauthier (.675) - Bracco (.842,500) = 2.292,500
Petan (.775)

Forwards = 61.663,866

Muzzin (4) - Rielly (5) = 9
Dermott (.863,333) - Hainsey (1.5) = 2.363,333
Rosen (.75) - Liljegren (894,166) = 1.644,166
Borgman (.7) - Holl (.675) = 1.375

Defense = 14.382,499

Andersen (5)
Sparks (.75)

Goalies = 5.75

Kessel (1.2)
Horton (LTIR)

Spares = 1.2

TOTAL = 82.996,365

What's everyone freaking out about again?

Quoted for truth. Are Zaitsev and brown the only ones gone? Plus the ufas gone obviously?

 

[IBeL34f]

Quoted for truth. Are Zaitsev and brown the only ones gone? Plus the ufas gone obviously?

Gardiner (UFA), Zaitsev and Brown (trades) are the only players removed, with Hainsey brought back on a cheap 1-year deal.

 

[The Apologist]

Marleau (6.25) - Tavares (11) - Marner (10.5) = 27.75
Hyman (2.25) - Matthews (11.634) - Nylander (6.962,366) = 20.846.366
Johnsson (2.5) - Kadri (4.5) - Kapanen (3) = 10
Moore (.775) - Gauthier (.675) - Bracco (.842,500) = 2.292,500
Petan (.775)

Forwards = 61.663,866

Muzzin (4) - Rielly (5) = 9
Dermott (.863,333) - Hainsey (1.5) = 2.363,333
Rosen (.75) - Liljegren (894,166) = 1.644,166
Borgman (.7) - Holl (.675) = 1.375

Defense = 14.382,499

Andersen (5)
Sparks (.75)

Goalies = 5.75

Kessel (1.2)
Horton (LTIR)

Spares = 1.2

TOTAL = 82.996,365

What's everyone freaking out about again?

That defense looks terribad and we still have no backup goalie.

 

[Bomber0104]

[...]

What's everyone freaking out about again?

That defence is terrible lol

 

[Deebo]

That defense looks terribad and we still have no backup goalie.

Yeah, next year's team will have some holes thanks to Lou bringing Marleau in.

 

[Advanced stats]

That defense looks terribad and we still have no backup goalie.

Hardly terrible.

Personally I'd do
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - Hainsey
Rosen - Lilly

Which is definitely workable for a season.


If you really want, you can take 1 million off of Johnsson's salary, as he'd make about 1.5-1.7 in an arbitration hearing(for 1 year)

 

[The Apologist]

Yeah, next year's team will have some holes thanks to Lou bringing Marleau in.

And Nylander being overpaid, and Mathews being overpaid, and possibly Mitch being overpaid (not to mention Kappy and AJ if they come back), lets not pretend that Marleau is the only issue with our cap right now.

 

[The Apologist]

Hardly terrible.

Personally I'd do
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - Hainsey
Rosen - Lilly

Which is definitely workable for a season.


If you really want, you can take 1 million off of Johnsson's salary, as he'd make about 1.5-1.7 in an arbitration hearing(for 1 year)

Hainsey will be a year older (and slower), Rosen has yet to establish that he is an NHL player consistently and Lilly has not yet played a game. As long as we play an all out pure offence game we should be fine but there is zero pretense of defense in that group. It could be a great group offensively.

 

[Mess]

This might be true. If there is a team willing to give him that kind of money, Leafs should be happy with getting 4 first rounders. That's a big chunk of cash to save with some serious trade bait going forward.

The most likely OS threat if there is one would come at the bolded range of $10.148 mil (averaged over 5 years with compensation at 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd..

Draft pick compensation 2019-20 season

$1,339,575 or less	No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659	Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322	Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980	First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641	First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302	Four first-round picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That would also be a range Leafs would match so Mitch essentially knows he is getting $10 mil either for the Leafs or someone else.

 

[Leafsfan74]

The most likely OS threat if there is one would come at the bolded range of $10.148 mil (averaged over 5 years with compensation at 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd..

Draft pick compensation 2019-20 season

$1,339,575 or less	No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659	Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322	Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980	First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641	First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302	Four first-round picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That would also be a range Leafs would match so Mitch essentially knows he is getting $10 mil either for the Leafs or someone else.

Thanks for the information, that clarifies alot.

This probably gets solved then, Leafs will keep him I imagine. I can't imagine someone giving up 4 first rounders and I can't imagine Leafs wouldn't match less, with an eye on returning the favour to that team in the future

 

[IBeL34f]

That defense looks terribad and we still have no backup goalie.

That defence is terrible lol

The D is the exact same as we entered this season with, but with Muzzin in for Gardiner and Liljegren in for Zaitsev.

Our defensive issues have always (in my humble opinion, at least) been systemic rather than based on personnel - Rielly, Muzzin, Hainsey, Dermott, Rosen and Liljegren is a bare-bones yet fine blueline, as far as I'm concerned.

And, if need be, cap space can be re-allocated from the forward group to the back-end. Many folks are suggesting that someone like Nylander or Kadri need to be moved in order for us to be cap-compliant, which simply isn't accurate.

As for our backup goalie, Sparks is there - If you don't like him, throw $0.75M at someone you do like and call it a day.

 

[Advanced stats]

Hainsey will be a year older (and slower), Rosen has yet to establish that he is an NHL player consistently and Lilly has not yet played a game. As long as we play an all out pure offence game we should be fine but there is zero pretense of defense in that group. It could be a great group offensively.

I think the top 4 is fine defensively, not fantastic obviously, but definitely managable. Not like we lost great defensive players in Gardiner and Zaitsev.

I can understand having an issue with the bottom pair defensively. Good news is, there's a bunch of defensive bottom pairing guys available on the cheap, who'd fit in perfectly.
Cap room can be made with Lilly to the marlies and Johnasson to an arbitration hearing.

Available are
Gunnersson
Methot
Coburn
Mcquaid
Petrovic
Siedenberg


And a few more. If you're looking for stay at home guys, there are a few bottom pairing ones out there .

 

[The Apologist]

The D is the exact same as we entered this season with, but with Muzzin in for Gardiner and Liljegren in for Zaitsev.

Not sure anyone considered our D great at the start of last year, and certainly not at the end of the season either and that's when we had Jake (albeit injured) AND Muzz.

I think the top 4 is fine defensively, not fantastic obviously, but definitely managable. Not like we lost great defensive players in Gardiner and Zaitsev.

I can understand having an issue with the bottom pair defensively. Good news is, there's a bunch of defensive bottom pairing guys available on the cheap, who'd fit in perfectly.
Cap room can be made with Lilly to the marlies and Johnasson to an arbitration hearing.

Available are
Gunnersson
Methot
Coburn
Mcquaid
Petrovic
Siedenberg


And a few more. If you're looking for stay at home guys, there are a few bottom pairing ones out there .

Fair enough. Personally I think Zaitsev was not as bad as the guff hes given around here. Jake's ability to move the puck will be missed but I think his ability to screw it up at the worst of times will not be.
Bringing Gunnar back at the right contract is an interesting idea.
I hear Luke is available too, hes a good ol stay at home guy

 

[Chris18820]

The most likely OS threat if there is one would come at the bolded range of $10.148 mil (averaged over 5 years with compensation at 2 X 1st + 2nd + 3rd..

Draft pick compensation 2019-20 season

$1,339,575 or less	No compensation
$1,339,576 to $2,029,659	Third-round pick
$2,029,660 to $4,059,322	Second-round pick
$4,059,323 to $6,088,980	First and third-round picks
$6,088,981 to $8,118,641	First, second and third-round picks
$8,118,642 to $10,148,302	Two firsts, a second and third-round picks
Over $10,148,302	Four first-round picks

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

That would also be a range Leafs would match so Mitch essentially knows he is getting $10 mil either for the Leafs or someone else.

The compensation is averaged over 5 years correct?
So for a team to stay in the bolded bracket the max they could offer is 5 x 10.148302 or 7 x 7.24879.
In other words any team willing to offer sheet MM better be ready to pay him 11+ mill x 7 years AND give up 4 first rounders because I get the feeling the Leafs would be comfortable with giving him 10x8 at this point. MM isnt going anywhere...

 

[The Apologist]

The compensation is averaged over 5 years correct?
So for a team to stay in the bolded bracket the max they could offer is 5 x 10.148302 or 7 x 7.24879.
In other words any team willing to offer sheet MM better be ready to pay him 11+ mill x 7 years AND give up 4 first rounders because I get the feeling the Leafs would be comfortable with giving him 10x8 at this point. MM isnt going anywhere...

Mitch is retiring a Leaf

 

[IBeL34f]

Fair enough. Personally I think Zaitsev was not as bad as the guff hes given around here. Jake's ability to move the puck will be missed but I think his ability to screw it up at the worst of times will not be.
Bringing Gunnar back at the right contract is an interesting idea.
I hear Luke is available too, hes a good ol stay at home guy

I have some time left for Zaitsev as well, and think he got a real bad rap around here based off of a terribly unlucky sophomore season - (broken foot, and a concussion, and a brutal flu, and a new baby at home, all in the same year) - but, when I look at where we could most effectively afford to shed multi-millions of dollars from our cap (and when I acknowledge that Marleau is 99% likely to be a Leaf next season) Zaitsev is the player who least lives up to his contract for me, especially with a high-end RHD prospect like Liljegren in the system.

Either way, the notion that our current high-end contracts are going to keep us from icing a cap-compliant team next year is, at this point in time, nothing more than a fallacy.

 

[diceman934]

The D is the exact same as we entered this season with, but with Muzzin in for Gardiner and Liljegren in for Zaitsev.

Our defensive issues have always (in my humble opinion, at least) been systemic rather than based on personnel - Rielly, Muzzin, Hainsey, Dermott, Rosen and Liljegren is a bare-bones yet fine blueline, as far as I'm concerned.

And, if need be, cap space can be re-allocated from the forward group to the back-end. Many folks are suggesting that someone like Nylander or Kadri need to be moved in order for us to be cap-compliant, which simply isn't accurate.

As for our backup goalie, Sparks is there - If you don't like him, throw $0.75M at someone you do like and call it a day.

No way Sparks is a Leaf next year.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Hardly terrible.

Personally I'd do
Rielly - Dermott
Muzzin - Hainsey
Rosen - Lilly

Which is definitely workable for a season.


If you really want, you can take 1 million off of Johnsson's salary, as he'd make about 1.5-1.7 in an arbitration hearing(for 1 year)

Dont think Dermott is ready for top pairing matchups. He struggled at times during that Boston series and made some huge mistakes at big moments.

I wouldnt rush the kid and think he could do with some 2nd pairing matchups first.

I think with those collection of players they would line up like:

Rielly-Hainsey
Muzzin-Dermott
Rosen-Lily(or cheap UFA/traded for D maybe?)

 

[Jozay]

Dont think Dermott is ready for top pairing matchups. He struggled at times during that Boston series and made some huge mistakes at big moments.

I wouldnt rush the kid and think he could do with some 2nd pairing matchups first.

I think with those collection of players they would line up like:

Rielly-Hainsey
Muzzin-Dermott
Rosen-Lily(or cheap UFA/traded for D maybe?)

Hopefully Dubas is able to bring in someone to give Liljegren some real competition for the bottom pair RD spot.

Dont think I want to see Hainsey on the top pair anymore. I think its likely one of Kapanen, Johnsson or Kadri is traded to get a RHD that can play with Rielly.

 

[Mess]

Thanks for the information, that clarifies alot.

This probably gets solved then, Leafs will keep him I imagine. I can't imagine someone giving up 4 first rounders and I can't imagine Leafs wouldn't match less, with an eye on returning the favour to that team in the future

Well lets just play devils advocate for a second here and take the NYR.

- They currently sit at 17 players under contract for 2019-20 with $17,536,391 free space to spend..
- They also have 3 X 1st round picks this year their own #2OA (after winning draft lottery) Dallas for Mats Zuccarello and Winnipeg for Kevin Hayes.
- OS timing would be July 1st so the 2019 entry have already passed.

We know NYR like the Leafs, money is no option affordability wise, they has lots of free cap to offersheet a player giving him $12 mil or more if the like..

Since they will be picking 3X times in this years 2019 draft in the 1st round alone including the prized #2OA.. The NYR also picked 3 X times in the 1st round last year in 2018 as well.. So that is 6 X 1st round picks in this year + last combined.

This to me would make the NYR a prime OS threat even it meant giving up 4 X 1st rounders from 2020-2023.