Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Notsince67]

Can't fathom Marner signing for more then Kucherov.

There is no friggin way the contract landscape has changed that much in 12 months. No way.

The best comparable is Patrick kane. 9.6MM x 5 years on his rfa

 

[4thline]

Its a good indicator that the Leafs are getting bent over by everyone. If Kucherov took less money, than why not anyone here? Tax garbage aside, which is a nonsense argument.

I can almost guarantee that there is someone in Ontario somewhere that is better at your job making less than you. Is your (presumably) market rate salary an indicator that you're taking your employer to the cleaners, or is it just a fact that there is variance in salaries in a given field?

Setting expectations based on outliers is a fools game

 

[DarkKnight]

Interesting and good point. There isn't any room. Seems like some aren't enamored by the cap situation and are unwilling to accept the inevitable consequences. I guess denial is the natural reaction for those folks.

There will be subtractions. That's guaranteed. At a minimum, we'll see a good chunk of the middle of our lineup disappear - that important quality depth that we talk about so frequently.

For next year, we have to hope that the low cost replacements that we can afford and some rookie D step up and perform.

Footnote - don't think Hainsey resigns at $1 m either.

Maybe that's the reason every former GM or exec says the Leafs numbers won't work, because they won't. We are making subtractions and have to pray we get a couple decent veterans on a tryout at camp (which isn't inconceivable in the new NHL).

If we're going into next year with two rookies on D, god help us.

 

[Leafsfan74]

That is the only thing I can conclude

Both slightly overpaid, Nylander more than Matthews (especially considering the attraction that Matthews is, here and across the border). However, this all depends on what Marner is asking for. We simply don't know. If he wants to make as much as Matthews or more, this is an easy sit out for me and let him get an offer sheet.

As I've said, centres who score 40+ goals earn the big money traditionally. It was as early as last year some people thought Marner was lower on the depth charts than Nylander. I always think, all lines require a goal scorer. Marner had Tavares, Nylander had Matthews last year. You put these guys on a line with a player who scores 30 goals instead of 47, his production goes down unless he decides he can score 15 more himself.

He should get paid what he is worth. I don't think it's Matthews type cash. If that is his goal, I humbly suggest we take the draft picks, as much as I'd like him to remain in Toronto.

 

[18leafsfan18]

It would be a precedent based on cap percentage.

Matthews signed at the cap percentage that players with numerous 100 point seasons that are far above ppg sign for. Saying “but the cap is going up” doesn’t excuse horrible contracts.

Top cap percent players in the league (at least 14% of cap):

Ovi (16.8%) - When Signed had 2 seasons over 100 points
McDavid (16.7%) - When Signed had 1 season over 100 points
Kane (15.2%) - When Signed had 0 seasons over 100 points
Toews (15.2%) - When Signed had 0 seasons over 100 points
Malkin (14.8%) - When Signed had 3 seasons over 100 points
Crosby (14.5%) - When Signed had 4 seasons over 100 points
Kopitar (14.0%) - When Signed had 0 seasons over 100 points
Price (14.0%) - Obviously no comparison

Based on your "facts" about players having multiple 100 point seasons when signing deals this big.

As shown above 4 out of the 7 above players had 0 or 1 season with 100 points, when they signed their big percentage deal.

When you just pull random numbers out of nowhere you aren't proving anything other then you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about.

 

[Menzinger]

The current cap space is 3.8 with Nylander counting as 6.96 for every season of his contract including this year. If he counted as 10.3 they would have had almost no cap space.

His contract is listed on capfriendly as counting for 10.3 this season with it reverting to 6.9 for years ars 2-6 of the deal. Bob McKenzie also confirms thisnks how it was structured - with two aavs because of when it was signed

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Top cap percent players in the league (at least 14% of cap):

Ovi (16.8%) - When Signed had 2 seasons over 100 points
McDavid (16.7%) - When Signed had 1 season over 100 points
Kane (15.2%) - When Signed had 0 seasons over 100 points
Toews (15.2%) - When Signed had 0 seasons over 100 points
Malkin (14.8%) - When Signed had 3 seasons over 100 points
Crosby (14.5%) - When Signed had 4 seasons over 100 points
Kopitar (14.0%) - When Signed had 0 seasons over 100 points
Price (14.0%) - Obviously no comparison

Based on your "facts" about players having multiple 100 point seasons when signing deals this big.

As shown above 4 out of the 7 above players had 0 or 1 season with 100 points, when they signed their big percentage deal.

When you just pull random numbers out of nowhere you aren't proving anything other then you have no clue whatsoever what you are talking about.

I thought it went without saying that ufa contracts are different.

Kane, for example, signed for 11% of the cap coming off his elc.

 

[18leafsfan18]

In the Nylander contract threads everybody SCREAMED at me that ppg over the elc years is what matter by FAR the most. When I pointed out Pastrnaks career high of 34 goals compared to 20 for Nylander, everyone SCREAMED at me that we should only look at ppg over elc.

I’m just being consistent with that now.

i KNEW this would happen. I knew all the metrics would change when other leaf players got overpaid as well.

ALso, everybody SCREAMED at me that Pastrnak wasn’t paid as a 34 goal/70 point player because he only did it once over his elc. But I haven’t seen ONE SINGLE PERSON make that same case in regards to Marner only having one 90 point season.

There is NO consistency.

Or you misunderstood everyone when they told you, you cannot base the entire negotiation on 1 stat.

It just so happens that that one stat makes your point.

There are way more stats that both make your point and make your point wrong.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

This league is really starting to piss me off.

As it stands, leaf fans pay absurd prices for the product, while god knows how much of that money is revenue shared with direct competition. It’s bull****, but I tolerated it. Same with the cap.

But now the leafs (under the same cap as everyone else) now have to pay all of their players far above market value because they don’t like the “media pressure”? Absolute bull****. This is an absolute **** deal for leaf fans. There is absolutely no perk for us in any of this.

We also have one of the richest teams in the league. We have bought out contracts, compliance buy-outs, gotten rid of bad contracts (Clarkson) because other teams couldn't afford the insurance, don't have a self-imposed spending limit, etc.

Money is a big deal and a big advantage.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I said that to compare willy to marner is dumb because marner has already accomplished more at a younger age

So you didn't answer the question in anyway, and still haven't even answered the original post.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Or you misunderstood everyone when they told you, you cannot base the entire negotiation on 1 stat.

It just so happens that that one stat makes your point.

There are way more stats that both make your point and make your point wrong.

It sure seems that the stats that “matter” get all switched around depending on which leaf overpayment is being defended.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I thought it went without saying that ufa contracts are different.

Kane, for example, signed for 11% of the cap coming off his elc.

You said players that sign for around 15% have multiple 100 point seasons.

If you are only talking about RFA contract players that make 15%, why don't you just say McDavid because he is the only one. I assume because you did no research and pulled the numbers out of thin air.

 

[horner]

Can't fathom Marner signing for more then Kucherov.

There is no friggin way the contract landscape has changed that much in 12 months. No way.

TBay players don't pay any taxes or very little.
Can't compare the TBay players.

Add taxes in Canada

You will see when Branden Point signs

 

[18leafsfan18]

It sure seems that the stats that “matter” get all switched around depending on which leaf overpayment is being defended.

Do you understand what a negotiation is ?

There are stats to support both sides, but you only look at 1 side of them.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Dubas will have to sell snow to an Eskimo to get rid of the Old GM's cap blunders.

should be his top priority after he gets Marner done.

If Lou's bending over for Zaitsev and Marleau can be moved, or at least the majority of it, that would be huge.

Agreed but I wonder if the team is really that motivated to move Zaitsev?
With Gardiner and Hainsey gone that's a lot of turnover in the top 6.

That's a important point. This situation screams for one or two of our rookie ELC defenders to step up (Liljegren/Sandin), but that's a lot of pressure on a couple of rookies. It could end up being great, or the complete opposite.

 

[biotk]

His contract is listed on capfriendly as counting for 10.3 this season with it reverting to 6.9 for years ars 2-6 of the deal. Bob McKenzie also confirms thisnks how it was structured - with two aavs because of when it was signed

I will copy and paste what I wrote on another thread.

Here is how it worked for Nylander:

Nylander signed a contract that paid him out 41.77M over the 6 seasons (24.3M in bonuses, 10.7M total in salary over years 2 to 6, and 6.77M in salary for year 1 - which was 10M x 0.667 seasons - or if you prefer 6.77M in salary for 126 days under contract which would work out to 10M over the 186 day season, which is irrelevant because he was only under contract for 126 days and paid nothing for those 60 days not under contract)

41.77M divided by 6 is $6,962,366.

That number is Nylander's cap hit for each of the 6 seasons. If you go to the Leafs capfriendly page for this season you will see Nylander listed as having a cap of 10.27M for this season, but if you add up the Toronto cap hits for this season it goes over the cap significantly.

So if you click on (from the Leafs' capfriendly page) the link called: "Daily Cap Tracker" near the top of the page and then look at accumulated hit for Nylander it says: $6,962,366

Because the cap hit is applied daily, and a late signed contract can't be back tracked to the start of the season, the capfriendly site takes Nylander's cap hit of $6,962,366 divides it by the 126 days that he is on the roster and then mulitplies that daily cap hit of $55,257 by the 186 day season to get a yearly cap hit of $10,277,778. But the yearly cap doesn't actually actually exist for Nylander this season because he only played for 67.7% of the season and his actual cap hit that was applied to the Leafs this year was $6,962,366. The same as it will be for the next 5 years.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You said players that sign for around 15% have multiple 100 point seasons.

If you are only talking about RFA contract players that make 15%, why don't you just say McDavid because he is the only one. I assume because you did no research and pulled the numbers out of thin air.

Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are all around there as well.

That’s my precise point. Look at what those players did in their elc’s in order to get at least 15% of the cap.

It’s OUTRAGEOUS that Matthews got that contract at that term. Flat out ducking ridiculous.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Do you understand what a negotiation is ?

There are stats to support both sides, but you only look at 1 side of them.

I look at leaf players, then comparables. What happens? Dubas pays more.

 

[GoonieFace]

TBay players don't pay any taxes or very little.
Can't compare the TBay players.

Add taxes in Canada

You will see when Branden Point signs

The tax argument is nonsense. Players are not taxed on signing bonuses. You think pro athletes cannot move their money around for tax benefits?

Its just another way to try to make ourselves feel better about paying way more than other teams are paying on AAV.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are all around there as well.

That’s my precise point. Look at what those players did in their elc’s in order to get at least 15% of the cap.

It’s OUTRAGEOUS that Matthews got that contract at that term. Flat out ducking ridiculous.

You honestly took the only guys on that list that got over 100 points. This is exactly my point, you nitpick every stat to look like your right.

Look at Kane, Toews and Kopitar when they signed their deals they had 0 seasons with 100 points. Does that mean that Matthews signed a good deal ?

 

[18leafsfan18]

I look at leaf players, then comparables. What happens? Dubas pays more.

You look at only comparables that make your point. You ignore all the others.

You honestly haven't looked at both sides of a single argument. Totally biased.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You honestly took the only guys on that list that got over 100 points. This is exactly my point, you nitpick every stat to look like your right.

Look at Kane, Toews and Kopitar when they signed their deals they had 0 seasons with 100 points. Does that mean that Matthews signed a good deal ?

What I’m saying is that a player being UNDER a ppg over their elc is flat out unprecedented to sign at around 15% of cap. That’s been reserved for players with Crosby, Malkin, McDavid, and Ovechkin numbers.

Realistically, you’re just helping prove my argument. It is UNPRECEDENTED.

 

[18leafsfan18]

What I’m saying is that a player being UNDER a ppg over their elc is flat out unprecedented to sign at around 15% of cap. That’s been reserved for players with Crosby, Malkin, McDavid, and Ovechkin numbers.

Realistically, you’re just helping prove my argument. It is UNPRECEDENTED.

No. There is 1 player that has signed out of RFA with over 100 point season. McDavid.

Stop making up random shit and pretending its facts.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

No. There is 1 player that has signed out of RFA with over 100 point season. McDavid.

Stop making up random **** and pretending its facts.

What about Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin?

What are you talking about?

 

[GoonieFace]

I can almost guarantee that there is someone in Ontario somewhere that is better at your job making less than you. Is your (presumably) market rate salary an indicator that you're taking your employer to the cleaners, or is it just a fact that there is variance in salaries in a given field?

Setting expectations based on outliers is a fools game

Im not sure I like the comparison between professional sports and the average joe.