Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Leafsfan74]

We always seem to think that leaving Toronto is something that all people (including young NHL players) dread or think is terrible.

How do we know such things?

Is it possible that there's some people that wouldn't embrace living somewhere else? Its like we assume that Toronto is the only decent city to live in, and that the Leafs are the only good NHL club in existence.

I'm going by his own words. He says he likes playing here and wants to be here. Not all teams are this young, not sure there are any as young and this talented. He is in the centre of the hockey Universe, which means something to those whose lives revolve around hockey.

Maybe he will be happy in Nashville, who knows?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

So your 1 stat means everything and all other stats mean nothing ?

In the Nylander contract threads everybody SCREAMED at me that ppg over the elc years is what matter by FAR the most. When I pointed out Pastrnaks career high of 34 goals compared to 20 for Nylander, everyone SCREAMED at me that we should only look at ppg over elc.

I’m just being consistent with that now.

i KNEW this would happen. I knew all the metrics would change when other leaf players got overpaid as well.

ALso, everybody SCREAMED at me that Pastrnak wasn’t paid as a 34 goal/70 point player because he only did it once over his elc. But I haven’t seen ONE SINGLE PERSON make that same case in regards to Marner only having one 90 point season.

There is NO consistency.

 

[Deebo]

As the saying goes "History tends to repeat itself".

No so long ago MLSE thought they were being smart when they turned the GM keys over to a young greenhorn GM in John Ferguson Jr, replacing the veteran Pat Quinn, and JFJ started locking up Leafs to long-term overpaid deals and the team collapsed as a result of his moves/trades based on inexperience which resulted in failure not team success. It prompted MLSE to issue a public apology letter to fans/shareholders admitting their mistake that JFJ was over his head at GM, in a big market like Toronto.

We're at the potential early stages of that "rookie/greenhorn" GM history repeating itself moment as Lou Lam is replaced by Dubas and the keys of the franchise turned over to another inexperienced GM at the controls at a critical point in history, entrusted with leading through inexperience and highly vulnerable to mistakes of a steep learning curve.

We're seeing firsthand how he is handling the contracts, of first botching the Nylander deal, now giving Matthews elite money, but only getting 5 years for his franchise #1C (when 8 year term with 4 years of UFA status the minimum outcome), and he might end up getting played worst of all by Darren Ferris/Paul Marner before all is said and done on the Marner contract. Those massive contracts and cap hits including JT might end up resulting in Leafs missing the playoffs based on struggling to remain competitive with soooooo much cap $$ in soooooo few players. Margin for success razor thin with 1/2 the team or more Marlie/or equivalent talent to remain cap compliant surrounding by 3 or 4 top heavy NHL leading contracts.

The moral of the story of that "History repeats itself" mantra is "'Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

Based on grading his contract work Dubas might simply be JFJ version 2.0 in the making, when we look back on history.

Remember this

Lou gave bloated contracts to useless players and traded early picks for 4th line rentals. Dubas locked up elite talent in their primes and traded an early pick for a top pairing defender.

 

[egd27]

You answered the question yourself.

Gardiner and Hainsey walks (or are resigned at a fair caphit), Zaitsev and Brown traded + a rising cap actually gives the Leafs a bit of extra breathing room.

Dubas just needs to find 2 stop gap rhd via trade or free agency signings that fit this cap structure

This post is delusional.

As I said in my OP Gardiner money basically goes straight to Muzzin, and Gardiner's roster spot needs to be replaced.

Even if Hainsey walks and Brown and Zaitsev are traded for nothing but picks (unlikely), that's $9.6 out the door, so you only need to find another $2M to cover Matthew's raise......oh and 3 more roster spots.

So on this minor example, we've shed 4 roster players for nothing and not even covered Matthew's raise.

What exactly did I answer?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

But its literally not an either or situation.

There is room to shed cap elsewhere. You dont move a core guy until it becomes almost the only option left

The question for Dubas (and us as fans), what’s the rest of the team going to look like.
We barely got anything out of the bottom 6 and Gardiner/Dermott had a few rough moments in the playoffs. Now you are losing 2 D and want to push Dermott higher backed up by more rookies.

Where is the room?

The usual arguments:
Marleau - has NMC
Gardiner - walks but Muzzin is the same cost so that just evens out and his roster spot need to be replaced
Hainsey - gets you $3M but need to be replaced (so maybe $2M saving)
Everyone's favorite "trade Brown" gets you $2M (less his replacement and what ever comes back....so maybe $1.25M)
Hopefully someone can be conned into taking Zaitsev for futures (but he needs to be replaced)

So replace
Brown (if traded)
Zaitsev (if traded)

Replace or sign
Gards
Hainsey
Kap
AJ
Ennis

All the while....Matthews & Marner will be getting a combined raise of $19 - $20 Million

Interesting and good point. There isn't any room. Seems like some aren't enamored by the cap situation and are unwilling to accept the inevitable consequences. I guess denial is the natural reaction for those folks.

There will be subtractions. That's guaranteed. At a minimum, we'll see a good chunk of the middle of our lineup disappear - that important quality depth that we talk about so frequently.

For next year, we have to hope that the low cost replacements that we can afford and some rookie D step up and perform.

Footnote - don't think Hainsey resigns at $1 m either.

 

[egd27]

Plus, we would have had to deal with Muzzin & Reilly contracts as well, and possibly even Marner depending on the term of the new contract he signs (assuming he signs). Never understood why more folks don't pay more attention to the cyclical nature of things like this.

That or not comprehending that when some one leaves, their roster spot needs to be replaced.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Lou gave bloated contracts to useless players and traded early picks for 4th line rentals. Dubas locked up elite talent in their primes and traded an early pick for a top pairing defender.

If you’re willing to sign blank cheque’s, it’s not exactly difficult to lock up elite talent.

 

[GoonieFace]

Leafs are getting schooled in recent contracts. Bascially, if Marner gets over $9mil, its an overpayment. Stick the internal cap nonsense, Kucherov just signed for $9.5/year, he is better than Marner. That's the only comparable that should matter.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I'm going by his own words. He says he likes playing here and wants to be here.

He may actually mean those words too, but let's not underestimate that's what he needs to say while he play's with the Leafs.

 

[Trapper]

Lou gave bloated contracts to useless players and traded early picks for 4th line rentals. Dubas locked up elite talent in their primes and traded an early pick for a top pairing defender.

I wouldn’t exactly say Dubas locked up.
He gave a window and some will debate overpaid. Matthews/Nylander have 5 years with a no move clause in 4 for Matthews. Not exactly stellar. If Marner signs for 5, you got a UFA bonanza.

 

[Mess]

We'd all love to have that problem of deciding between a deal for tens of millions of dollars, and it wont even be your last deal. I can't say I'd be able to deal with it at his age, in fact, I know I wouldn't. However, I WOULD know where I'd want to work and play with, and that the small change which I would more than make up for in endorsements anyways, wouldn't drive me to another team which I wouldn't be as happy playing on.

They are young, having fun and making bank, at least do it in a place you love. That's some experience I can share with them from a much bigger fish bowl.

It always comes down to money in the end, particularly for young players just starting out..

If Dubas sticks to his guns and tells Mitch "You're not getting the Kucherov deal who is the best RW in the game" and then some team after July 1st starts whispering $11, $12 mil or more in his ear at what point does staying with the team you love stop making financial sense?

That is why Dubas has gone public with his "imperative to sign before July 1st deadline" , he knows full well potentially others will be willing to offer far more than he will be able to afford Cap wise to keep him.

 

[I Believe]

Can't fathom Marner signing for more then Kucherov.

There is no friggin way the contract landscape has changed that much in 12 months. No way.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Plus, we would have had to deal with Muzzin & Reilly contracts as well, and possibly even Marner depending on the term of the new contract he signs (assuming he signs). Never understood why more folks don't pay more attention to the cyclical nature of things like this.

That or not comprehending that when some one leaves, their roster spot needs to be replaced.

True enough. Both of these concepts seem to enigmatically missing from the thinking of some/many.

It only took three years before we found ourselves in cap hell. There will be another round(s) and it could end up taking about the same time again, or even less possibly.

 

[Menzinger]

It always comes down to money in the end, particularly for young players just starting out..

If Dubas sticks to his guns and tells Mitch "You're not getting the Kucherov deal who is the best RW in the game" and then some team after July 1st starts whispering $11, $12 mil or more in his ear at what point does staying with the team you love stop making financial sense?

That is why Dubas has gone public with his "imperative to sign before July 1st deadline" , he knows full well potentially others will be willing to offer far more than he will be able to afford Cap wise to keep him.

Which team is realistically going to make an offersheet for 12 mil or more that Marner would actually sign ?

Offersheets are something to worry about in theory rather than reality

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Can't fathom Marner signing for more then Kucherov.

There is no friggin way the contract landscape has changed that much in 12 months. No way.

It has vis-a-vis the Nylander and Matthew contracts. There's a reason why several GMs were pissed off with what Dubas did. Term is the biggest change, but much shorter contracts now get the same payday as the 7/8 year deals used to.

 

[DarkKnight]

I would certainly call the bluff on an offer sheet.

But, Dubas would fold, it's just the Leafs way.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It always comes down to money in the end, particularly for young players just starting out..

If Dubas sticks to his guns and tells Mitch "You're not getting the Kucherov deal who is the best RW in the game" and then some team after July 1st starts whispering $11, $12 mil or more in his ear at what point does staying with the team you love stop making financial sense?

That is why Dubas has gone public with his "imperative to sign before July 1st deadline" , he knows full well potentially others will be willing to offer far more than he will be able to afford Cap wise to keep him.

No team is going to overpay Marner $12 million as well as lose 4 first round picks. No way in hell.

 

[Menzinger]

This post is delusional.

As I said in my OP Gardiner money basically goes straight to Muzzin, and Gardiner's roster spot needs to be replaced.

Even if Hainsey walks and Brown and Zaitsev are traded for nothing but picks (unlikely), that's $9.6 out the door, so you only need to find another $2M to cover Matthew's raise......oh and 3 more roster spots.

So on this minor example, we've shed 4 roster players for nothing and not even covered Matthew's raise.

What exactly did I answer?

Your math is off....

The team currently has 3.8 mil in capspace (and that's with Nylanders caphit being 10 mil this season, with it reverting down to 6.9 next season) and that the cap will be rising 3.5 mil too. And then potentially reduce another 13+ million from Hainsey, Zaitsev, Gardiner and Brown going.

The 5-6h D will likely league minimum as will be Browns replacement. What's left to figure out is getting two replacement rhd that can fit within that structure (potentially involving Kapanen or AJ in a trade)

Theres nothing "delusional" about this

Edit: clarification

 

[Gary Nylund]

It always comes down to money in the end, particularly for young players just starting out..

If Dubas sticks to his guns and tells Mitch "You're not getting the Kucherov deal who is the best RW in the game" and then some team after July 1st starts whispering $11, $12 mil or more in his ear at what point does staying with the team you love stop making financial sense?

That is why Dubas has gone public with his "imperative to sign before July 1st deadline" , he knows full well potentially others will be willing to offer far more than he will be able to afford Cap wise to keep him.

Apparently Marner is making millions in endorsement deals, not a chance he gets that much endorsement dollars elsewhere. Let's say for arguments sake he'd make 4 million in endorsements in Toronto but only 1 million someplace else. In that case, it's making 9+4 million here or 11+1 elsewhere and at that point the question becomes what's more important, making more money and playing in his home town or feeding his ego?

 

[4thline]

Leafs are getting schooled in recent contracts. Bascially, if Marner gets over $9mil, its an overpayment. Stick the internal cap nonsense, Kucherov just signed for $9.5/year, he is better than Marner. That's the only comparable that should matter.

Kucherov signed for less money and like 80% of the cap percentage of Kane, it's really not a good indicator.

 

[GoonieFace]

Kucherov signed for less money and like 80% of the cap percentage of Kane, it's really not a good indicator.

Its a good indicator that the Leafs are getting bent over by everyone. If Kucherov took less money, than why not anyone here? Tax garbage aside, which is a nonsense argument.

 

[Leafsfan74]

It always comes down to money in the end, particularly for young players just starting out..

If Dubas sticks to his guns and tells Mitch "You're not getting the Kucherov deal who is the best RW in the game" and then some team after July 1st starts whispering $11, $12 mil or more in his ear at what point does staying with the team you love stop making financial sense?

That is why Dubas has gone public with his "imperative to sign before July 1st deadline" , he knows full well potentially others will be willing to offer far more than he will be able to afford Cap wise to keep him.

This might be true. If there is a team willing to give him that kind of money, Leafs should be happy with getting 4 first rounders. That's a big chunk of cash to save with some serious trade bait going forward.

Yes, he performed very well and is a talented young player, but we can find a strong centre upgrade to Kadri with the savings (and assuming the $4.5 saved if Kadri is traded) and work on improvements to various positions. I'm even starting to envision this as the better option quite frankly. Due to our cap issues, build up the middle and add some depth.

It might cost a great talent, who I would prefer keeping to market value contract (less than Kucherov) but as I've said before, the year after Gretzky was traded the Oilers won the Cup. No one replaces a team. To me in terms of keepers, we have Tavares and Matthews up the middle, Reilly and Muzzin (who I think they should address after Marner), along with Andersen in net (the most important member of this team).

You can work with the other players and various possibilities to improve greatly. There is plenty of talent in the league and always teams who are selling. This team is built up the middle and there's enough offensive talent that any one player isn't going to slow them down. Look at when Nylander wasn't playing or Matthews went down.

 

[Notsince67]

So, in your opinion, Nylander won't have any years over around 60 points and Matthews somewhere below 90-100 ?

I said that to compare willy to marner is dumb because marner has already accomplished more at a younger age

 

[Notsince67]

Because Marner is the last of the big-three to sign (+ Tavares or course). Somehow we believe that its Marner's job to take the hit and earn less because Nylander and Matthews have already loaded up their Brinks trucks.

That is the only thing I can conclude

 

[biotk]

The team currently has 3.8 mil in capspace (and that's with Nylanders caphit being 10 mil this season, with it reverting down to 6.9 next season)

The current cap space is 3.8 with Nylander counting as 6.96 for every season of his contract including this year. If he counted as 10.3 they would have had almost no cap space.