Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Throw More Waffles]

Yup. Already an over payment. No need to have him play any games of that contract.

If he gets 110 points next year, still and over payment.

So how you actually play during the 3 elc years has no bearing on your next contract? Wow.

 

[Notsince67]

Before this season Marner had 61 points and 69 point seasons. Everyone saying they should have paid him at that point.

How is that any different then them paying Matthews and Nylander this season and expecting them to get more points ?

Or do you think a 69 point player is worth 9 mil ?

You can ignore all the imperial trends all you want to try to make your point. Forget the lines Marner played with until he was put up with a much better line in Kadri and Marleau...a bunch of players that people actually make excuses for Nylander not doing well this year. I already went through the very obvious fact that it was already clear that Marner was already showing he would kill it this year. Nobody advocated an offer of 9MM. They advocated 8 to 8.5 for long term money knowing that the odds were overwhelmingly favorable that he could blow past that value if he didn't get hurt. You cannot argue now that those people were wrong when they were clearly right. Marner will not sign a contract in that range now. Your take is just dumb. Marner will continue his run and likely improve it next year. I couldn't imagine where his point total would be if his PK time was moved to 5x5 time or if the PP was any good.

 

[stealth1]

This league is really starting to piss me off.

As it stands, leaf fans pay absurd prices for the product, while god knows how much of that money is revenue shared with direct competition. It’s bull****, but I tolerated it. Same with the cap.

But now the leafs (under the same cap as everyone else) now have to pay all of their players far above market value because they don’t like the “media pressure”? Absolute bull****. This is an absolute **** deal for leaf fans. There is absolutely no perk for us in any of this.

All you can do is throw more waffles and learn to deal with it.

 

[AreBe]

Paying players for future success is " chrystal ball stuff"...
Overpaid coach/players often leads to what were seeing

"Crystal ball stuff" is why we are cutting edge with an analytics department! True math. True analysis. It's highly educated and although some assumptions are made, Newtonian mathematics greatly reduces the size of the dart board in the vast universe of possible outcomes

Remember too - the NHL is aware of Post Concussion Syndrome, and so good Canadian kid traditional tough grinder hockey is on the way out as much as Leafs Nation wants to build the team like it is 1999, the fact is that the game is moving to soccer styled play making and spatial awareness and less grappling and MMA. Canadian are going to have to adjust, as Canadians went from being well over 80% of the NHL to just about 50% now, as the game is speeding by the penalty- box -sitter- is -a good- thing, grinder set. Canadians need to recognize this shift in hockey - a knew way of being

Crazy inflation in league revenue resulting in ballooning salary caps year after year make today's totally nutters over-payment the cheap deal of tomorrow. That's how inflation works- tomorrow you get less for your buck,so you might as well get the deal sown up today. Sort of like buying commodities futures- bit of a risk if you don't want a garage full of soybeans again, but using no money at all to get rights to tomorrow's soybeans today with borrowed money, and then getting a check when the soybeans come in for higher price than what I paid means I get a check - aside from a lot of sleepless nights- for free. Unearned incomes!

The key is analytics. Absolutely critical, and use those analytics for drafting - really get good info from everywhere, around the world, and hit gold Detroit style. Might even consider Marner walking for 4 consecutive first round picks to a team stupid enough to give up 4 consecutive first round picks. Perhaps multiple first overall picks is what we will be seeing.

 

[Morbo]

Dubas & Shanahan thought they were going to convince the 3 Amigos to take hometown discounts, with their "We before Me" media blitz campaign.

I was hoping it would have been Lou Lam that negotiated those deals before turning the keys over to Dubas.. However Shanny had other ideas and thought if Dubas was the long-term plan then he should decide what to pay AM + MM + WN and then be accountable for those contracts, and build a team around them.

I'm curious based on the odd timing of the GM change coming off the heels of a franchise 100 record setting 105 point season, that perhaps Lou Lam (based on 30 years of experience) told Shanahan they're dreaming or being naive if they thought the Amigo's were going to buy into their "home town discount, and win Cups together plan", or could afford to keep them all.

So Shanny decided to prove him wrong thinking they could "sell snow to Eskimos", and now it is what it is !!!

Dubas will have to sell snow to an Eskimo to get rid of the Old GM's cap blunders.

should be his top priority after he gets Marner done.

If Lou's bending over for Zaitsev and Marleau can be moved, or at least the majority of it, that would be huge.

 

[Notsince67]

My guess is that they warned him that opposing gm's don't care that McDavid chose to take less than any of them would have happily given him over more term and that there would be a long line of teams willing to forfeit 1st+1st+2nd+3rd for 3-4 years of Matthews at 10.15

Might be true but might not be. Bobby Orr indicated in the summer that they weren't looking at McDavid money. Guaranteed that was the time to sign Matthews at 11MM x 8. Few people would have argued that was a bad contract. Few people would have said at that point that the Marner camp wasn't smoking crack if they asked for the same. I truly believe that Matthews @ 11 and Marner @8.5 over 7 and 8 years was doable in the summer.

 

[18leafsfan18]

So how you actually play during the 3 elc years has no bearing on your next contract? Wow.

He had 40 goals in his first year. First player since Ovi to do that. The two guys to do that before him were Lindros and Salanne. Maybe you have heard of them ?

He was over a PPG in his next 2 seasons and had 2 injuries that took him time to get back in his groove.

Honestly how much more do you need to see. He is assumed to be one of the top players in the game based on multiple insiders.

You keep blindfolding yourself to anything that goes against your awful argument. Buy a clue.

 

[ShaneFalco]

Clearly Lou would have done a better job on contract negotiations had he stayed based on his 30+ years experience and setting the tone with the wonderful Zaitsev (after one year in the league) and Marleau signings (knowing the 3rd year was a killer)
The Pleks, Polak, Boyle signings along with keeping JVR, Bozak, Komarov and letting them walk - all genius moves based on his experience. No rookie GM, aka Wonder Boy could accomplish what Lou did (Thank f***) !

 

[TheDoldrums]

I truly believe that Matthews @ 11 and Marner @8.5 over 7 and 8 years was doable in the summer.

I mean I'm with you, but I also don't know how you give them that while Willy is still in limbo. If Nylander saw Marner get $8.5 last summer, what do you think he would have demanded?

 

[Mess]

This was my position last year before any of the 3 Amigos were signed last preseason, and I'm sticking to it ....

I've said many times that JT contract will act like a magnet drawing all the salaries up closer to his.

If Matthews scores more goals than JT he will want more $$ than JT and when the dust settles and Marner has 30 assists on 45 JT goals it will be time for his agent to claim Mitch is validating that Tavares contract so better pay up.

Poor Willy is the black sheep stuck on the sidelines and realizing as AM and MM go UP his contract $$ goes inversely proportionately DOWN as Cap room shrinks to pay the other 2 higher priority signings.

That is why I posted $12 mil for AM and $11 mil for JT and $10 mil for MM = goodbye Nylander.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You can ignore all the imperial trends all you want to try to make your point. Forget the lines Marner played with until he was put up with a much better line in Kadri and Marleau...a bunch of players that people actually make excuses for Nylander not doing well this year. I already went through the very obvious fact that it was already clear that Marner was already showing he would kill it this year. Nobody advocated an offer of 9MM. They advocated 8 to 8.5 for long term money knowing that the odds were overwhelmingly favorable that he could blow past that value if he didn't get hurt. You cannot argue now that those people were wrong when they were clearly right. Marner will not sign a contract in that range now. Your take is just dumb. Marner will continue his run and likely improve it next year. I couldn't imagine where his point total would be if his PK time was moved to 5x5 time or if the PP was any good.

Maybe read back to the original post you quoted.

In no way did I say that Marner was not going to have a better season this year then last.

The whole point of the post was that posters would have had no problem with giving Marner a contract based on potential (which means future points) last year. But have a huge problem giving one to Nylander and Matthews based on potential this year.

Do you honestly think Matthews and Nylander won't have better seasons next year ? They have both hit their peak ?

 

[HoweHullOrr]

I may be alone in this but I don't see Panarin as a Marner replacement at all.
Perhaps I haven't watched him as often as others but he struck me as more of a shooter.

IMHO, after watching him a lot, he's very productive and very good at both passing and shooting - an offensive dynamo basically.

 

[4thline]

Might be true but might not be. Bobby Orr indicated in the summer that they weren't looking at McDavid money. Guaranteed that was the time to sign Matthews at 11MM x 8. Few people would have argued that was a bad contract. Few people would have said at that point that the Marner camp wasn't smoking crack if they asked for the same. I truly believe that Matthews @ 11 and Marner @8.5 over 7 and 8 years was doable in the summer.

It's hard to reconcile a Matthews camp that believed in his ability to take the next step and was satisfied with 11x8 and one that was in the process of taking that step and thought it was worth 13+ x 8.

They may have been on the table, and if so not gambling on them due to Nylander implications will go down as a mistake. But that being said something had to happen outside of the negotiations that fundamentally changed the players perspectives on what model to follow.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

This was my position last year before any of the 3 Amigos were signed and I'm sticking to it ....

Interesting. What was the time line? Kudos btw.

 

[Deebo]

Dubas will have to sell snow to an Eskimo to get rid of the Old GM's cap blunders.

should be his top priority after he gets Marner done.

If Lou's bending over for Zaitsev and Marleau can be moved, or at least the majority of it, that would be huge.

Yup,

Shanny decided to move on from Lou because Lou got impatient and made poor decisions.

Lou started off well with moving Phaneuf, getting Freddy and signing Rielly and Kadri to good deals. But then he turned around and wasted the cap savings he got there by committing to Marleau and Zaitsev and got impatient by moving 2 2nd round picks for 4th line rentals and kept his own rentals in 2017 and ended up in first round defeats.

Imagine what could have been this year and going forward if they had 6M+ more in cap room, the prospects that were drafted with the picks they gave up for Boyle and Plekanec and the assets in return JVR.

Lou and his 30 years of experience got impatient and made blunders that cost the team early draft picks and will potentially cost the team a good young player and only got 2 first round defeats to show for it. Maybe he knew he wasn't going to be here long term and recklessly took these chances with little regard for the future of the organization.

 

[Leafsfan74]

This league is really starting to piss me off.

As it stands, leaf fans pay absurd prices for the product, while god knows how much of that money is revenue shared with direct competition. It’s bull****, but I tolerated it. Same with the cap.

But now the leafs (under the same cap as everyone else) now have to pay all of their players far above market value because they don’t like the “media pressure”? Absolute bull****. This is an absolute **** deal for leaf fans. There is absolutely no perk for us in any of this.

It's a business, first and foremost. It's in their best interest to win a Cup, not for the reason fans support the team (some nostalgic love of the team), but for their bottom line.

They know they have to get it done, as when they went 10 years without a playoff from I think 2003-2013 or so, they lost a generation of fans. They need to succeed, and it helps with a young, talented, exciting team to watch.

Without a Cup though, their profit growth slows. Imagine what no Canadian team left in the playoffs means for Rogers ratings and advertising revenue. Leafs winning a Cup is pure gold. Like hitting the jackpot in a slot machine.

 

[ACC1224]

Dubas will have to sell snow to an Eskimo to get rid of the Old GM's cap blunders.

should be his top priority after he gets Marner done.

If Lou's bending over for Zaitsev and Marleau can be moved, or at least the majority of it, that would be huge.

Agreed but I wonder if the team is really that motivated to move Zaitsev?
With Gardiner and Hainsey gone that's a lot of turnover in the top 6.

 

[Notsince67]

Dubas & Shanahan thought they were going to convince the 3 Amigos to take hometown discounts, with their "We before Me" media blitz campaign.

I was hoping it would have been Lou Lam that negotiated those deals before turning the keys over to Dubas.. However Shanny had other ideas and thought if Dubas was the long-term plan then he should decide what to pay AM + MM + WN and then be accountable for those contracts, and build a team around them.

I'm curious based on the odd timing of the GM change coming off the heels of a franchise 100 record setting 105 point season, that perhaps Lou Lam (based on 30 years of experience) told Shanahan they're dreaming or being naive if they thought the Amigo's were going to buy into their "home town discount, and win Cups together plan", or could afford to keep them all.

So Shanny decided to prove him wrong thinking they could "sell snow to Eskimos", and now it is what it is !!!

In fairness, I understand why Dubas was fixated on all 3 but his inexperience build a strategy that he was too arrogant to question when it wasn't working. Management is not a trait people are born with. I learned long ago to beg borrow and steal as many old ideas as possible in my career because I realized that my predecessors weren't as dumb as history sometimes paint them as. I knew right from the beginning that his strategy of slow walking negotiations were wrong when you are building a house of cards. The most important lesson I learned about managing was early in my career when I worked for GE during the Jack Welsh years. It was that it is better to make the wrong decision early than the right decision late. Making the wrong decision late rarely happened because you were likely gone way before that happened. Some unwinding of the situation is in order and I cant understand how Dubas can be trusted to fix this mess. A clear message would be to reward Nylanders poor play with a trade and fire Dubas. An immediate search for a new coach should happen or at the least put a successor in place. Johnsson needs to go because he is asking too much and Marner should be offered 10 to 10.5MM x 7 take it or sit. Be prepared to defend an offer sheet because they need to keep him. This sends a message to the rest of the team because it is clear that the culture needs massive correction. Give Morgan or JT captain, assign Marleau to the 4th line and be clear that performance dictates minutes and line assignment.

 

[Notsince67]

I mean I'm with you, but I also don't know how you give them that while Willy is still in limbo. If Nylander saw Marner get $8.5 last summer, what do you think he would have demanded?

It didn't matter. His ELC was done. Marner had another year and last year Marner was already almost 15% higher in points on Nylanders best year with another to go.

 

[Notsince67]

Maybe read back to the original post you quoted.

In no way did I say that Marner was not going to have a better season this year then last.

The whole point of the post was that posters would have had no problem with giving Marner a contract based on potential (which means future points) last year. But have a huge problem giving one to Nylander and Matthews based on potential this year.

Do you honestly think Matthews and Nylander won't have better seasons next year ? They have both hit their peak ?

Show me the imperial trendline of improvements between the two players that justify the projection because the line clearly supported the Marner projection

 

[Notsince67]

It's hard to reconcile a Matthews camp that believed in his ability to take the next step and was satisfied with 11x8 and one that was in the process of taking that step and thought it was worth 13+ x 8.

They may have been on the table, and if so not gambling on them due to Nylander implications will go down as a mistake. But that being said something had to happen outside of the negotiations that fundamentally changed the players perspectives on what model to follow.

What changed is that Matthews was killing it before he got hurt. Matthews already had the wind to his back when he got drafted. Based on pedigree alone, one would have put Matthews on the top of the list to lock down and put a cap on contracts. It was low hanging fruit. A contract between Mcjesus and Eichel was a given. I would argue that Matthews contract is better than McJesus now based on term alone.

 

[Morbo]

Agreed but I wonder if the team is really that motivated to move Zaitsev?
With Gardiner and Hainsey gone that's a lot of turnover in the top 6.

I don't see Zaitsev as part of the solution on a contender. Not sure how Dubas could like a player who is that bad at moving the puck on this team, either. He was actually ok against the Bruins, which was shocking after a season that could be best accompanied by a Benny Hill soundtrack. It's a question of has he shown enough that another team might have watched the small sample of him with Muzzin and think, "he could work out in our system playing with X".

 

[Leafsfan74]

"Crystal ball stuff" is why we are cutting edge with an analytics department! True math. True analysis. It's highly educated and although some assumptions are made, Newtonian mathematics greatly reduces the size of the dart board in the vast universe of possible outcomes

Remember too - the NHL is aware of Post Concussion Syndrome, and so good Canadian kid traditional tough grinder hockey is on the way out as much as Leafs Nation wants to build the team like it is 1999, the fact is that the game is moving to soccer styled play making and spatial awareness and less grappling and MMA. Canadian are going to have to adjust, as Canadians went from being well over 80% of the NHL to just about 50% now, as the game is speeding by the penalty- box -sitter- is -a good- thing, grinder set. Canadians need to recognize this shift in hockey - a knew way of being

Crazy inflation in league revenue resulting in ballooning salary caps year after year make today's totally nutters over-payment the cheap deal of tomorrow. That's how inflation works- tomorrow you get less for your buck,so you might as well get the deal sown up today. Sort of like buying commodities futures- bit of a risk if you don't want a garage full of soybeans again, but using no money at all to get rights to tomorrow's soybeans today with borrowed money, and then getting a check when the soybeans come in for higher price than what I paid means I get a check - aside from a lot of sleepless nights- for free. Unearned incomes!

The key is analytics. Absolutely critical, and use those analytics for drafting - really get good info from everywhere, around the world, and hit gold Detroit style. Might even consider Marner walking for 4 consecutive first round picks to a team stupid enough to give up 4 consecutive first round picks. Perhaps multiple first overall picks is what we will be seeing.

Well, I don't care about grinders per se, just players willing to win battles and play with some recklessness when needed. Not to the point of getting injured, but to the point of sacrificing with a blocked shot, or taking a hit in the corner to get the puck out, outmuscling a guy along the walls etc. I don't want a slow on dimensional slug, that's not going to work in this league.

You need some of it in your star players as they will be focused on, and you need even more of it with your depth players who primarily have a role to defend against other teams lines, and, need to earn their keep in the league beyond just point totals.

The Cap limitations are the same for everyone. Teams that can roll four lines and find perfect balance up and down their lineup will win. Leafs rely on speed and skill, it's fun to watch and difficult to stop. Even the Bruins didn't have an easy time, and they are a skilled, well oiled team, some of them together for many years. However, without a hunger and drive to win, you can have all the skill in the world and the other team willing to go that extra mile will beat you.

Leafs aren't that far off, so we shouldn't get too crazy. It's going to require tweaking and improving positions. If you can't keep all of the core however, you have to shoot for balance and they should improve the back end with a body or two (easier said than done).

No team is icing an all star lineup on the ice all game. This playoff has shown team concept, hard work and balance beat very talented teams. As it were, I would personally prefer 4 first rounders than to have one player in 99% of the cases. I'd like to see Marner here, but he has to embrace the broader opportunity. From endorsement possibilities on out.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Show me the imperial trendline of improvements between the two players that justify the projection because the line clearly supported the Marner projection

I'm not arguing that Nylander is better then Marner in any way.

Marner is better and will be paid more.

When Nylander's contract was signed it was pretty clear that the team doesn't think he has had his best years already (potential). Same goes with Matthews and same will go with Marner.

All players are being paid on their potential, but people are losing their mind over 2 of them being paid that way, but would have had no problem with Marner being paid based on potential.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

5 years from now we will be exactly where we have been for the past year.......wondering what Matthews and Nylander's new deals will look like.

Plus, we would have had to deal with Muzzin & Reilly contracts as well, and possibly even Marner depending on the term of the new contract he signs (assuming he signs). Never understood why more folks don't pay more attention to the cyclical nature of things like this.