Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Notsince67]

I'm not arguing that Nylander is better then Marner in any way.

Marner is better and will be paid more.

When Nylander's contract was signed it was pretty clear that the team doesn't think he has had his best years already (potential). Same goes with Matthews and same will go with Marner.

All players are being paid on their potential, but people are losing their mind over 2 of them being paid that way, but would have had no problem with Marner being paid based on potential.

I didn't argue that because it is irrelevant. The imperial trends never pointed to Nylander being even a 70 point player. There was little evidence that the two were comparable even if you didn't factor in that Marner is a year younger

 

[Mess]

Interesting. What was the time line? Kudos btw.

September before training camp thru - November 2018 (before Nylander signed)..

This is all unfolding exactly how I feared rather imagined it would.

Making JT the 2nd highest AAV player in the league behind only McDavid and then telling the 3 Amigos "How about you think of the team first and take paycuts/discounts on your deals so we can ice a more competitive team?", seem like a contradiction to me also with Dubas being a hypocrite as its certainly not practicing what he preaches.

Sadly, I believe the opposite will now happen and player agents will say "Hey Dubie buddy, you made JT one of the highest paid players showing no financial restraint, so how about you pay our young guys what their worth also now?".

Its great to have JT, don't get me wrong but Dubas was his own worst enemy as the consequences of his actions. Tavares salary is going to act like a magnet and pull all the 3 kids salaries up now closer to his when the Leafs internal pay scale is decided.

I'm predicting Leafs will have the #2 and #3 highest paid players in the game once Matthews signs is 8 year deal which already is going to put a serious pressure on team competitiveness.. Nylander and Marner will want their fair pay also, as why should they take pay cuts when teammates are all getting big pay raises and paid above their comparables.

JT is currently the 2nd highest Cap hit in the NHL and Matthews coming in around the same will mean Leafs will have #2 & #3 potential highest AAV after only McDavid.

That is before we factor in Willie and Mitch .. Its quite possible that JT+AM+MM+ WN = almost 1/2 of Leafs Cap after their LT deals are completed.

Prediction on next contracts:
Matthews @ $12 mil
Tavares @ $11 mil
Marner @ $10 mil
Nylander @ $7.5 mil

 

[Advanced stats]

Dubas isn’t Laine’s gm.

You can’t say there is precedent for something by pointing to the future.

Just because there's no precedent for it though, doesn't make it a bad deal.

In a rising cap era, new precedents will always be set, and records will be broken.
When Matthews and Nylander's deals are up, they'll look like bargains.

 

[Kamiccolo]

Weird is a it?

22 year old Nylander(coming off of 60 points) at 7 million is a terrible deal, but 22 year old marner (also with 60 points)with a 8.5 million dollar deal in hindsight is fantastic.

Literally the same people contradicting themselves

Nice try but Nylander is a year older than Marner and had an extra year of viewing what he was. The real equivalent would be if Marner scored 67 points again this year with no progression and then signed a deal in comparable to Kucherov after the season he just had.

I swear some of you guys try to miss the point.

 

[4thline]

What changed is that Matthews was killing it before he got hurt. Matthews already had the wind to his back when he got drafted. Based on pedigree alone, one would have put Matthews on the top of the list to lock down and put a cap on contracts. It was low hanging fruit. A contract between Mcjesus and Eichel was a given. I would argue that Matthews contract is better than McJesus now based on term alone.

That doesn't account for it though. If you accept a model based on "McDavid cap" an ~11x8 contract was already based on the premise that he could find another level and would be 2nd only to McDavid in his generation. There was growth projection built in, so satisfying the projection by "killing it" should only have a minimal impact, if any.

Where we ended up suggests that either his percieved self worth changed to valuedhimself as McDavid's equal (on the low end), or that he decided to discard's McDavid's contract as an outlier (as it should be, it's publicly known that the Oilers offered him more for less), and revert to the 06-09 contract model and trust that someone would pay.

 

[TML1967]

I guess my question is, where does he rank in the game as a player? top 10?15?20?25? If you include goalies and d.

What about forwards, top 5?10?15?

What about top wingers, top 5?10?15?

The reason I put it this way is because that to me is how to gauge his value. If he is a top 15 player in the NHL in your mind, whats the average salary of the top 15 players, he is worth roughly that. Hard to take the average when positions are so hard to balance.

Forwards probably makes the ballpark a bit easier, and just comparing him to other wingers is probably best. If you can take into account when the contract was signed, and the cap at the time you should be getting pretty close.

IMO, taking this into account, I got him around the 7ish range for a 3 year deal, and 9ish for 5 years, dont think 8 is gonan happen. Maybe 7x10.5m?

 

[Advanced stats]

Nice try but Nylander is a year older than Marner and had an extra year of viewing what he was. The real equivalent would be if Marner scored 67 points again this year with no progression and then signed a deal in comparable to Kucherov after the season he just had.

I swear some of you guys try to miss the point.

The point was more about optics and perspectives in signing our young talent, and less about specifics.

Point being our fanbase is sometimes so loopy and wishy-washy.

 

[CelticDruid]

Obviously, the Tavares signing skewed the cap, and with Dubas messing things up we could lose some young talent.

Shanahan messed up signing Dubas and now we are paying for his lack of negotiation skills.

It never fails with TML management (self-inflicted wounds)

 

[18leafsfan18]

I didn't argue that because it is irrelevant. The imperial trends never pointed to Nylander being even a 70 point player. There was little evidence that the two were comparable even if you didn't factor in that Marner is a year younger

So, in your opinion, Nylander won't have any years over around 60 points and Matthews somewhere below 90-100 ?

 

[ACC1224]

I don't see Zaitsev as part of the solution on a contender. Not sure how Dubas could like a player who is that bad at moving the puck on this team, either. He was actually ok against the Bruins, which was shocking after a season that could be best accompanied by a Benny Hill soundtrack. It's a question of has he shown enough that another team might have watched the small sample of him with Muzzin and think, "he could work out in our system playing with X".

Agreed with all that.
I'm not certain they will be comfortable turning over that many defenders at once though.
Like them or not, 3 guys is a lot to replace in one shot.

 

[4thline]

I don't see Zaitsev as part of the solution on a contender. Not sure how Dubas could like a player who is that bad at moving the puck on this team, either. He was actually ok against the Bruins, which was shocking after a season that could be best accompanied by a Benny Hill soundtrack. It's a question of has he shown enough that another team might have watched the small sample of him with Muzzin and think, "he could work out in our system playing with X".

Interesting risk reward scenario. A full season at playoff level and suddenly he's a solid top 4 RHD with reasonable 4 year term on a good contract, rather than a risky overpaid 5D with a 5 year albatross.

 

[socko]

I don't see Zaitsev as part of the solution on a contender. Not sure how Dubas could like a player who is that bad at moving the puck on this team, either. He was actually ok against the Bruins, which was shocking after a season that could be best accompanied by a Benny Hill soundtrack. It's a question of has he shown enough that another team might have watched the small sample of him with Muzzin and think, "he could work out in our system playing with X".

Which is what amazes me about the Pesce love. Pesce doesn't pass any better than Zaitsev does. Do people watch him play? Sure, he's better defensively than Zaitsev, but Z is a better skater and plays harder. Somehow Pesce is a huge bargain at $4 million. Um, he's a younger Hainsey. And Hainsey makes a $1 million less. Not such a bargain IMO. One of the most overrated non-Leaf players I've seen here in Leaf land.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

He can shrug and say "that's not my problem", fair enough. However, if you take that position his agent MUST tell him, "there's a chance us trying to squeeze them to _____ figure, means you are traded, and or, moved when a sheet comes from another team". It's the agents fiduciary duty to explain "is this what you want, or , you prefer ______ amount to remain a Leafs for 5,6,7 years?

However, I WOULD know where I'd want to work and play with, and that the small change which I would more than make up for in endorsements anyways, wouldn't drive me to another team which I wouldn't be as happy playing on.

.

We always seem to think that leaving Toronto is something that all people (including young NHL players) dread or think is terrible.

How do we know such things?

Is it possible that there's some people that wouldn't embrace living somewhere else? Its like we assume that Toronto is the only decent city to live in, and that the Leafs are the only good NHL club in existence.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

Stone is simply not better. His best year is this year based on Production and he is older and finished 21 points behind Marner. Stone skating is an issue and his contract will be one of the worse in a few years as his skating will deteriorate. He is a lot older and at his peak production at 73 points while Marner is still improving.

I think Stone has other attributes as well though. He's very sound defensively, great at take aways. Anyways, I'm happy with Marner and like our guy. Just pointing out that there's other things besides the score sheet.

 

[Mess]

Agreed with all that.
I'm not certain they will be comfortable turning over that many defenders at once though.
Like them or not, 3 guys is a lot to replace in one shot.

Zaitsev is the only legitimate NHL RHD on the the Leafs roster... Babcock has been pleading for more RHD help not less. Not sure where fans are getting this idea he is the one on the outs, unless he is included in a deal that upgrades the right hand D position. He is currently Leafs #4 Dman on the depth chart and at $4.5 mil that is market for a top 4 Dman in today's NHL. Besides Babcock seems quite comfortable using LHD Muzzin and RHD Zaitsev as his 2nd shutdown pairing.

After Marner's new Cap busting deal is completed which we all expect will be $10 mil or more, it will be come clear that Nylander is a luxuary item Leafs can't afford any longer to remain Cup competitive and he will be dealt for RHD help.

So next year Leafs Defense..

Rielly ------- XXXX (return from Nylander, or other forwards Kadri/Kapanen etc for cap reason)
Muzzin ---- Zaitsev
Dermott --- XXXX (Hainsey @ ~ $1 mil)
Rosen

Gardiner walks and Hainsey (maybe) on a cap friendly 1 year deal is brought back as that 3rd pairing veteran.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

He had 40 goals in his first year. First player since Ovi to do that. The two guys to do that before him were Lindros and Salanne. Maybe you have heard of them ?

He was over a PPG in his next 2 seasons and had 2 injuries that took him time to get back in his groove.

Honestly how much more do you need to see. He is assumed to be one of the top players in the game based on multiple insiders.

You keep blindfolding yourself to anything that goes against your awful argument. Buy a clue.

I don’t care much for the spin and nonsense. He was UNDER a ppg over his elc, and he was paid like people who are SUBSTANTIALLY over a ppg. Dramatic overpayment.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

September before training camp thru - November 2018 (before Nylander signed)..

This is all unfolding exactly how I feared rather imagined it would.

Prediction on next contracts:
Matthews @ $12 mil
Tavares @ $11 mil
Marner @ $10 mil
Nylander @ $7.5 mil

I've been mentioning for the last 2 or 3 years that things run in cycles and that we'd have our turn at dealing with cap issues. Seemed inevitable to me and was more a matter of "when" versus "if". Those ideas go over like lead balloons in here of course.

I've been saying for some time (last year approx.) that Marner was going to be difficult to sign. $10.5 m was my best guess back in the fall of 2018.

I think the adjustment that is needed now after the Matthews & Nylander contracts is term. I'd guess the term will either 5 years, & 6 years would be the most optimistic end result. If Marner's camp digs in like recent press seems to suggest, I can see a three (3) year bridge.

Just a guess of course, but its fun to speculate.

 

[MJ65]

Leafs are definitely going to sign Marner (I would say $9.5 - $9.8 per) and that would create cap problem - I am not sure what they are going to do but the logical solution is to trade Nylander, I know some of us are not going to like that but that's the reality

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Just because there's no precedent for it though, doesn't make it a bad deal.

In a rising cap era, new precedents will always be set, and records will be broken.
When Matthews and Nylander's deals are up, they'll look like bargains.

It would be a precedent based on cap percentage.

Matthews signed at the cap percentage that players with numerous 100 point seasons that are far above ppg sign for. Saying “but the cap is going up” doesn’t excuse horrible contracts.

 

[HoweHullOrr]

What does cups have to do with it. Mcjesus didn't win one nor has Matthews. Why does marner get all the barriers?

Because Marner is the last of the big-three to sign (+ Tavares or course). Somehow we believe that its Marner's job to take the hit and earn less because Nylander and Matthews have already loaded up their Brinks trucks.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Mitch Marner, Mike Babcock and the nine priorities that will...

Is the local kid who grew up cheering for the Leafs really going to take his talents elsewhere? Is he really going to pass up a chance to win the franchise’s first Stanley Cup in more than five decades just to score the biggest deal?

Marner’s camp can, and probably will, make noise about that possibility, but it’s just that — noise — until Marner actually puts pen to paper and tries to force the Leafs’ hand. And even if it gets that far, Dubas can match the offer, as he’s said he would, or grab the picks, and cap space, and move in another direction.

It’s hard to see any scenario in which the Leafs let that happen, even if the contract is pricier than they’d like. He’s too important to what they do, and still so young, with his 22nd birthday rolling around next week.

Even the rewards of the offer sheet are fraught with peril. The picks, tantalizing as they might be, don’t exactly help a team in win-now mode, and it will be next to impossible to replicate Marner’s value with the cap space that becomes available.

What number is too high, though? When does the demand become so exorbitant that the Leafs feel they have no choice but to pivot? What if Marner’s camp insists on the same five-year, $58 million deal that Matthews got, or something very close to it? Would they be amenable to a shorter deal, say, two to three years with an annual cap hit of $7 million to $8 million?

The potential for intrigue is huge. Stay tuned.

 

[Menzinger]

Agreed with all that.
I'm not certain they will be comfortable turning over that many defenders at once though.
Like them or not, 3 guys is a lot to replace in one shot.

Depends on who replaces them.

I think dubas would be more inclined to go with new food rather than trying to maintain consistency. If he brings in a couple new vets (27-33 in age) it becomes less of an issue for Babcock imo

 

[stealth1]

Why is it that other teams have no problem signing their top players to good contracts that don't give them cap issues. Some how the Leafs can't get one player to take a hometown discount. All it looks like is these guys could care less about playing for Big Blue. They care more about the name on the back.

 

[Mess]

Obviously, the Tavares signing skewed the cap, and with Dubas messing things up we could lose some young talent.

Shanahan messed up signing Dubas and now we are paying for his lack of negotiation skills.

It never fails with TML management (self-inflicted wounds)

As the saying goes "History tends to repeat itself".

No so long ago MLSE thought they were being smart when they turned the GM keys over to a young greenhorn GM in John Ferguson Jr, replacing the veteran Pat Quinn, and JFJ started locking up Leafs to long-term overpaid deals and the team collapsed as a result of his moves/trades based on inexperience which resulted in failure not team success. It prompted MLSE to issue a public apology letter to fans/shareholders admitting their mistake that JFJ was over his head at GM, in a big market like Toronto.

We're at the potential early stages of that "rookie/greenhorn" GM history repeating itself moment as Lou Lam is replaced by Dubas and the keys of the franchise turned over to another inexperienced GM at the controls at a critical point in history, entrusted with leading through inexperience and highly vulnerable to mistakes of a steep learning curve.

We're seeing firsthand how he is handling the contracts, of first botching the Nylander deal, now giving Matthews elite money, but only getting 5 years for his franchise #1C (when 8 year term with 4 years of UFA status the minimum outcome), and he might end up getting played worst of all by Darren Ferris/Paul Marner before all is said and done on the Marner contract. Those massive contracts and cap hits including JT might end up resulting in Leafs missing the playoffs based on struggling to remain competitive with soooooo much cap $$ in soooooo few players. Margin for success razor thin with 1/2 the team or more Marlie/or equivalent talent to remain cap compliant surrounding by 3 or 4 top heavy NHL leading contracts.

The moral of the story of that "History repeats itself" mantra is "'Those who do not learn history are doomed to repeat it."

Based on grading his contract work Dubas might simply be JFJ version 2.0 in the making, when we look back on history.

Remember this

 

[18leafsfan18]

I don’t care much for the spin and nonsense. He was UNDER a ppg over his elc, and he was paid like people who are SUBSTANTIALLY over a ppg. Dramatic overpayment.

So your 1 stat means everything and all other stats mean nothing ?