Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Throw More Waffles]

Which is why they use comparables.

Used them for Nylander and he was paid what he should have been within 500k give or take (Based on opinions).

Tavares was a free agent and based on what insiders say was offered 13 (You guys love to use insider "predicted" numbers). So I guess all those other GMs including your beloved Lou are dumb too.

Matthews is the best player on this team and has the potential for being top 3 in the league (McDavid #1, not sure who else). You pay those guys.

I never argued Marner should be paid more then either of them, if anything I have been arguing Marner should be 10 max.

Marner hasn't signed yet and your basing your "overpayments" on 4 months into the other 2 contracts.

You also have to compare our gm to other gm’s. At BEST, Dubas is getting the upper end of market value for his players. That’s not exactly commendable. And I don’t believe for a second these are the upper end of market value. I think these are flat out ATROCIOUS contracts.

And contracts are supposed to be handed out based on what a player has proven. Matthews was UNDER a ppg over his elc. When you look at such COMPARABLES, he’s dramatically overpaid. Players that sign for almost 15% of the cap after their elc have multiple 100 point seasons and are SUBSTANTIALLY above ppg.

 

[egd27]

But its literally not an either or situation.

There is room to shed cap elsewhere. You dont move a core guy until it becomes almost the only option left

Where is the room?

The usual arguments:
Marleau - has NMC
Gardiner - walks but Muzzin is the same cost so that just evens out and his roster spot need to be replaced
Hainsey - gets you $3M but need to be replaced (so maybe $2M saving)
Everyone's favorite "trade Brown" gets you $2M (less his replacement and what ever comes back....so maybe $1.25M)
Hopefully someone can be conned into taking Zaitsev for futures (but he needs to be replaced)

So replace
Brown (if traded)
Zaitsev (if traded)

Replace or sign
Gards
Hainsey
Kap
AJ
Ennis

All the while....Matthews & Marner will be getting a combined raise of $19 - $20 Million

 

[TheDoldrums]

And contracts are supposed to be handed out based on what a player has proven. Matthews was UNDER a ppg over his elc. When you look at such COMPARABLES, he’s dramatically overpaid. Players that sign for almost 15% of the cap after their elc have multiple 100 point seasons and are SUBSTANTIALLY above ppg.

There are no comparables to Matthews, maybe Stamkos. He's a centre who's also the second best goal scorer in the world.

 

[Mess]

Offering a 60-69 point player 9 mil in the hopes they "get better" is unprecedented.

Paying a one time 90 point player 11 mil+ is also unprecedented (other than Dubas' dramatic overpyament in Matthews).

We just want fair market value like all of the other gm's seem to be able to do. Marner shouldn't make a single PENNY more than Rantanen or Point.

Marner is using teammates Matthews and Tavares as his comparables to set Leafs internal payscale and since Mitch has been the teams leading point producer 2 years running he has a strong case to take that position, claiming he deserves to be paid like them, because he produces points at a rate like them.

Using player comparables around the league not really all that important unless they break the bank and the whole market is moved upwards.

Rantanten/Point could sign for $8.5 mil X 8 years and Marner's deal will still be closer to Matthews in both $$ and term. IMO

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Laine this off-season?

Dubas isn’t Laine’s gm.

You can’t say there is precedent for something by pointing to the future.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Marner is using teammates Matthews and Tavares as his comparables to set Leafs internal payscale and since Mitch has been the teams leading point producer 2 years running he has a strong case to take that position, claiming he deserves to be paid like them, because he produces points at a rate like them.

Using player comparables around the league not really all that important unless they break the bank and the whole market is moved upwards.

Rantanten could sign for $8.5 mil X 8 years and Marner's deal will still be closer to Matthews in both $$ and term. IMO

Regardless of the excuses, the leafs seem to always have to pay MORE than what comparables get.

I don’t care about the rationalizations and excuses. I just want it to end.

 

[Mess]

Regardless of the excuses, the leafs seem to always have to pay MORE than what comparables get.

I don’t care about the rationalizations and excuses. I just want it to end.

Those aren't excuses, those are the costs of doing business by putting a rookie GM in the drivers seat, and then trusting him to get these contracts signed in the teams favour.

After watching precedence set in past contracts, there really is no realistic expectations that things are going to change now.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Those aren't excuses those are the costs of doing business by putting a rookie GM in the drivers seat, and then trusting him to get these contracts signed in the teams favour.

Yes, I agree there. The contracts SUCK and are the rookie gm’s fault.

 

[Leafsfan74]

Regardless of the excuses, the leafs seem to always have to pay MORE than what comparables get.

I don’t care about the rationalizations and excuses. I just want it to end.

You are right, sadly, they also receive bigger benefits. Jersey sales (Matthews I believe was a top 3 or 5 in the entire league), big ticket prices from big profit corporations. Matthews by nature of being an American player brings value to these corporations who woo U.S business. It's just the broader reality (I used to work for one of these big corps who had many seats). Overcharging advertisers etc.

So, everything is relative. When there wasn't a Cap, every Leaf fans became giddy for Deadline Day, as we knew we would add one or three new players to the mix. Same with Free Agency. We still didn't win a Cup, but we came close to being in the finals a couple of times and each winning playoff round brought renewed hope (and larger ticket prices).

Now with a Cap, Leafs are significantly handcuffed (they were actually lobbying AGAINST the Cap when majority of teams voted for it) and they know winning a Cup would increase their profits dramatically in a very short period of time. Even if they had to pay $200M for the team payroll to pickup every player in sight to make sure the opponents didn't, after a one year hit to the bottom line, it would pay major dividends for a decade, and ticket price increases would remain for eternity afterwards (when was the last time you heard ticket prices for Leafs games decrease after a horrible season?).

It's the Right to Print money. MLSE wants to print more. God Bless them for wanting to do so. As irrational fans of sports I want them too as well, if it means a Cup. So everyone gets a little more, which I would argue takes away from the broader team imperative. This is why, again beating a dad horse, the Nylander contract negotiation was so vital. We needed to prove our mettle and not overestimate his value, especially when the team was tearing up the league at the time without him. It made little sense to me.

 

[ULF_55]

It was linked. Babcock clearly told him to stay at home and mind a shutdown role. He was barely over 30% in offensive zone starts

I'd have no problem if Babcock was traded.

I'd go straight across for Hitchcock.

McDavid 22:50
Draisaitl 22:35

Nugent-Hopkins 20:06 for crap sakes.

 

[Deebo]

Those aren't excuses those are the costs of doing business by putting a rookie GM in the drivers seat, and then trusting him to get these contracts signed in the teams favour.

If only we could go back to experienced GMs like Fletcher and Nonis and those amazing deals they gave to Clarkson, Finger or Phaneuf or Lou with Marleau and Zatisev.

I also loved giving up 2nd round picks for players like Bernier, Bolland or 4th line rentals Boyle and Plekanec.

 

[Notsince67]

Those aren't excuses those are the costs of doing business by putting a rookie GM in the drivers seat, and then trusting him to get these contracts signed in the teams favour.

Yup. Would really like to know what the heck the capologists were paid for too. Did they provide valued advice that Dubas ignored or are they just another indication that Dubas doesnt really value a buck and just fattens an organization.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Again you do not understand.
If my accelerator is pressed in my car and I've just passed 130km/hour and I am heading towards a downward hill, would you be betting that I will be slowed by the hill?
Marner was producing at 1.13 points per game after January with less talent that Tavares this year. His ELC was not done yet so if you think an inevitable 90+ point season is just potential because of the time reference, you must also understand that there is also the potential I will be slowed in my car if I had the bad luck of hitting a UFO.
And yeah...AM a WN contracts are horrible btw.

Before this season Marner had 61 points and 69 point seasons. Everyone saying they should have paid him at that point.

How is that any different then them paying Matthews and Nylander this season and expecting them to get more points ?

Or do you think a 69 point player is worth 9 mil ?

 

[Menzinger]

Where is the room?

The usual arguments:
Marleau - has NMC
Gardiner - walks but Muzzin is the same cost so that just evens out and his roster spot need to be replaced
Hainsey - gets you $3M but need to be replaced (so maybe $2M saving)
Everyone's favorite "trade Brown" gets you $2M (less his replacement and what ever comes back....so maybe $1.25M)
Hopefully someone can be conned into taking Zaitsev for futures (but he needs to be replaced)

So replace
Brown (if traded)
Zaitsev (if traded)

Replace or sign
Gards
Hainsey
Kap
AJ
Ennis

All the while....Matthews & Marner will be getting a combined raise of $19 - $20 Million

You answered the question yourself.

Gardiner and Hainsey walks (or are resigned at a fair caphit), Zaitsev and Brown traded + a rising cap actually gives the Leafs a bit of extra breathing room.

Dubas just needs to find 2 stop gap rhd via trade or free agency signings that fit this cap structure

 

[ACC1224]

If only we could go back to experienced GMs like Fletcher and Nonis and those amazing deals they gave to Clarkson, Finger or Phaneuf or Lou with Marleau and Zatisev.

I also loved giving up 2nd round picks for players like Bernier, Bolland or 4th line rentals Boyle and Plekanec.

Your posts are usually pretty good.

 

[Menzinger]

Before this season Marner had 61 points and 69 point seasons. Everyone saying they should have paid him at that point.

How is that any different then them paying Matthews and Nylander this season and expecting them to get more points ?

Or do you think a 69 point player is worth 9 mil ?

Hes only worth a hair over 9 mil now (based on his best contract comparables), folks claiming it was smart to sign him to that after a 69 point season are either being completely oblivious to contract comparison or being contraian for the sale of argument

 

[Menzinger]

Marner is using teammates Matthews and Tavares as his comparables to set Leafs internal payscale and since Mitch has been the teams leading point producer 2 years running he has a strong case to take that position, claiming he deserves to be paid like them, because he produces points at a rate like them.

Using player comparables around the league not really all that important unless they break the bank and the whole market is moved upwards.

Rantanten/Point could sign for $8.5 mil X 8 years and Marner's deal will still be closer to Matthews in both $$ and term. IMO

Outside player comparables are used just as much as internal ones. This has been stated in multiple articles

Tavares was one of the most sought after free agents in the salary cap era, and Matthew's a centre whose one of the league's best goal scorers. He has zero basis to ask for similar salary

 

[Throw More Waffles]

You are right, sadly, they also receive bigger benefits. Jersey sales (Matthews I believe was a top 3 or 5 in the entire league), big ticket prices from big profit corporations. Matthews by nature of being an American player brings value to these corporations who woo U.S business. It's just the broader reality (I used to work for one of these big corps who had many seats). Overcharging advertisers etc.

So, everything is relative. When there wasn't a Cap, every Leaf fans became giddy for Deadline Day, as we knew we would add one or three new players to the mix. Same with Free Agency. We still didn't win a Cup, but we came close to being in the finals a couple of times and each winning playoff round brought renewed hope (and larger ticket prices).

Now with a Cap, Leafs are significantly handcuffed (they were actually lobbying AGAINST the Cap when majority of teams voted for it) and they know winning a Cup would increase their profits dramatically in a very short period of time. Even if they had to pay $200M for the team payroll to pickup every player in sight to make sure the opponents didn't, after a one year hit to the bottom line, it would pay major dividends for a decade, and ticket price increases would remain for eternity afterwards (when was the last time you heard ticket prices for Leafs games decrease after a horrible season?).

It's the Right to Print money. MLSE wants to print more. God Bless them for wanting to do so. As irrational fans of sports I want them too as well, if it means a Cup. So everyone gets a little more, which I would argue takes away from the broader team imperative. This is why, again beating a dad horse, the Nylander contract negotiation was so vital. We needed to prove our mettle and not overestimate his value, especially when the team was tearing up the league at the time without him. It made little sense to me.

This league is really starting to piss me off.

As it stands, leaf fans pay absurd prices for the product, while god knows how much of that money is revenue shared with direct competition. It’s bullshit, but I tolerated it. Same with the cap.

But now the leafs (under the same cap as everyone else) now have to pay all of their players far above market value because they don’t like the “media pressure”? Absolute bullshit. This is an absolute shit deal for leaf fans. There is absolutely no perk for us in any of this.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

If only we could go back to experienced GMs like Fletcher and Nonis and those amazing deals they gave to Clarkson, Finger or Phaneuf or Lou with Marleau and Zatisev.

I also loved giving up 2nd round picks for players like Bernier, Bolland or 4th line rentals Boyle and Plekanec.

Saying “it’s not just the current leafs gm that sucks. Many of our previous gm’s sucked too”. Doesn’t really make me feel any better about it...

 

[18leafsfan18]

You also have to compare our gm to other gm’s. At BEST, Dubas is getting the upper end of market value for his players. That’s not exactly commendable. And I don’t believe for a second these are the upper end of market value. I think these are flat out ATROCIOUS contracts.

And contracts are supposed to be handed out based on what a player has proven. Matthews was UNDER a ppg over his elc. When you look at such COMPARABLES, he’s dramatically overpaid. Players that sign for almost 15% of the cap after their elc have multiple 100 point seasons and are SUBSTANTIALLY above ppg.

Good thing the team doesn't take into account the "believe" of their fans, they would have no players.

Matthews:
Year 1 - 82 games 69 points (40 goals)
Year 2 - 62 games 63 points (34 goals)
Year 3 - 68 games 73 points (37 goals)

Looks to me like he is over a PPG for the last 2 seasons, but was under a ppg in his rookie year where he scored 40 goals.

He had injury issues hard to hit 100 points with that, which is why you need to use PPG.

If contracts are given out based on what players have proven why are there any contracts in the league that are considered a good deal for the club ?

Contracts are given out based on what a player has proven as well as what a player will prove. If these guys never live up to their contracts then the GM is in the wrong, you are basing this on 4-5 months of a 5 year contract.

 

[DarkKnight]

Hes only worth a hair over 9 mil now (based on his best contract comparables), folks claiming it was smart to sign him to that after a 69 point season are either being completely oblivious to contract comparison or being contraian for the sale of argument

His camp wanted 9, we started at 7.5. Split the difference, nobody was entertaining 9 plus last August. 8.25 x 8 wasn't exactly obscene, particularly knowing he was playing with JT. Oblivious, that's what our GM was here, and there is no revisionism required, this view was expressed before the season started.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

Good thing the team doesn't take into account the "believe" of their fans, they would have no players.

Matthews:
Year 1 - 82 games 69 points (40 goals)
Year 2 - 62 games 63 points (34 goals)
Year 3 - 68 games 73 points (37 goals)

Looks to me like he is over a PPG for the last 2 seasons, but was under a ppg in his rookie year where he scored 40 goals.

He had injury issues hard to hit 100 points with that, which is why you need to use PPG.

If contracts are given out based on what players have proven why are there any contracts in the league that are considered a good deal for the club ?

Contracts are given out based on what a player has proven as well as what a player will prove. If these guys never live up to their contracts then the GM is in the wrong, you are basing this on 4-5 months of a 5 year contract.

Players that signed for 14-15% of the cap are WAY over a ppg over their elc. WAY over. Not (lol) slightly under.

Those are the real numbers.

Dramatic overpayment.

 

[4thline]

Yup. Would really like to know what the heck the capologists were paid for too. Did they provide valued advice that Dubas ignored or are they just another indication that Dubas doesnt really value a buck and just fattens an organization.

My guess is that they warned him that opposing gm's don't care that McDavid chose to take less than any of them would have happily given him over more term and that there would be a long line of teams willing to forfeit 1st+1st+2nd+3rd for 3-4 years of Matthews at 10.15

 

[18leafsfan18]

Players that signed for 14-15% of the cap are WAY over a ppg over their elc. WAY over. Not (lol) slightly under.

Those are the real numbers.

Dramatic overpayment.

Yup. Already an over payment. No need to have him play any games of that contract.

If he gets 110 points next year, still and over payment.

 

[Mess]

Yup. Would really like to know what the heck the capologists were paid for too. Did they provide valued advice that Dubas ignored or are they just another indication that Dubas doesnt really value a buck and just fattens an organization.

Dubas & Shanahan thought they were going to convince the 3 Amigos to take hometown discounts, with their "We before Me" media blitz campaign.

I was hoping it would have been Lou Lam that negotiated those deals before turning the keys over to Dubas.. However Shanny had other ideas and thought if Dubas was the long-term plan then he should decide what to pay AM + MM + WN and then be accountable for those contracts, and build a team around them.

I'm curious based on the odd timing of the GM change coming off the heels of a franchise 100 record setting 105 point season, that perhaps Lou Lam (based on 30 years of experience) told Shanahan they're dreaming or being naive if they thought the Amigo's were going to buy into their "home town discount, and win Cups together plan", or could afford to keep them all.

So Shanny decided to prove him wrong thinking they could "sell snow to Eskimos", and now it is what it is !!!