Salary Cap: Marner contract signing watch discussion.

[Babcocks Marner]

Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin are all around there as well.

That’s my precise point. Look at what those players did in their elc’s in order to get at least 15% of the cap.

It’s OUTRAGEOUS that Matthews got that contract at that term. Flat out ducking ridiculous.

I mean just about every single hockey analyst said he was over paid. Called the "best contract" every signed by a player. I love Matthews...... LOVE Matthews..... but he is way over paid. IMO, for 5 years, @11.6 is a better contract than McDavid. Matthews is not close to McDavid. Almost nobody is.
I don't mind 11.6, but that should have been for at least 7 years.

Nylander was 500k over paid, Matthews is 1m over paid (based on term), and I will guess Marner will be in the 1mil area as well. 2.5mil over payment is a lot on 3 players.

It really starts adding up with every mistake.

 

[18leafsfan18]

What about Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin?

What are you talking about?

I can't handle you having no clue what your talking about. Time to ignore.

 

[18leafsfan18]

I mean just about every single hockey analyst said he was over paid. Called the "best contract" every signed by a player. I love Matthews...... LOVE Matthews..... but he is way over paid. IMO, for 5 years, @11.6 is a better contract than McDavid. Matthews is not close to McDavid. Almost nobody is.
I don't mind 11.6, but that should have been for at least 7 years.

Nylander was 500k over paid, Matthews is 1m over paid (based on term), and I will guess Marner will be in the 1mil area as well. 2.5mil over payment is a lot on 3 players.

It really starts adding up with every mistake.

Not trying to start an argument, but how do you calculate how overpaid a player is based on contract length ?

Like why is Matthews overpaid by 1m based on term, where does the 1m come from ?

 

[egd27]

Your math is off....

The team currently has 3.8 mil in capspace (and that's with Nylanders caphit being 10 mil this season, with it reverting down to 6.9 next season) and that the cap will be rising 3.5 mil too. And then potentially reduce another 13+ million from Hainsey, Zaitsev, Gardiner and Brown going.

The 5-6h D will likely league minimum as will be Browns replacement. What's left to figure out is getting two replacement rhd that can fit within that structure (potentially involving Kapanen or AJ in a trade)

Theres nothing "delusional" about this

Edit: clarification

Ok, I'm willing to learn. Here's my math and please tell me what is off

For the 2019 -20 season the Leafs have currently:
9 Forwards signed for $46.1 M
5 Defense signed for $23.8 M
2 Goalies signed for $5.75M
This totals $75.7 M (all numbers rounded to 1ooK)

Of those 9 forwards signed, none are named Marner, Johnsson, or Kapanen

Of those 5 defense signed, none are named Gardiner or Hainsey (so their salaries are already gone) however 1 of the D is named Justin Holl which may be problematic

Of the 2 goalies signed, one is named Garret Sparks which is definitely problematic.

(BTW Horton is not included anywhere in the numbers above)

Now I'm going to be very optimistic and go with a cap of $85.7 M (because why not?)

So let's recap.

Cap = $85.7 M

Leafs have committed $75.7 M to 16 players (2 of which are Holl & Sparks)

So that leaves $10M to sign Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen plus 4 others (2 F & 2D) to round out a 23 man roster.

But you argue "Brown and Zaitsev" (because Gards and Hainsey are already gone)

So sure.....let's magically get rid of their $6.6M

So now that leaves us $16.6M to sign Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen plus 6 others (3 F & 3D) to round out a 23 man roster.

Where have I gone wrong?

 

[thewave]

I mean just about every single hockey analyst said he was over paid. Called the "best contract" every signed by a player. I love Matthews...... LOVE Matthews..... but he is way over paid. IMO, for 5 years, @11.6 is a better contract than McDavid. Matthews is not close to McDavid. Almost nobody is.
I don't mind 11.6, but that should have been for at least 7 years.

Nylander was 500k over paid, Matthews is 1m over paid (based on term), and I will guess Marner will be in the 1mil area as well. 2.5mil over payment is a lot on 3 players.

It really starts adding up with every mistake.

Sure Nylander 500 600k, not the end of the world but it's precedent. The Matthews contract broke everything and it's not 1m over, it's about 2m over considering term, maybe 2.6m. that's 3m or so and now Marner will get OP 2m as well. That's 5m, a good player. Kappy and AJ will want 500k extra each, another 1m and it goes on and on until it doesn't.

 

[Deebo]

I will copy and paste what I wrote on another thread.

Here is how it worked for Nylander:

Nylander signed a contract that paid him out 41.77M over the 6 seasons (24.3M in bonuses, 10.7M total in salary over years 2 to 6, and 6.77M in salary for year 1 - which was 10M x 0.667 seasons - or if you prefer 6.77M in salary for 126 days under contract which would work out to 10M over the 186 day season, which is irrelevant because he was only under contract for 126 days and paid nothing for those 60 days not under contract)

41.77M divided by 6 is $6,962,366.

That number is Nylander's cap hit for each of the 6 seasons. If you go to the Leafs capfriendly page for this season you will see Nylander listed as having a cap of 10.27M for this season, but if you add up the Toronto cap hits for this season it goes over the cap significantly.

So if you click on (from the Leafs' capfriendly page) the link called: "Daily Cap Tracker" near the top of the page and then look at accumulated hit for Nylander it says: $6,962,366

Because the cap hit is applied daily, and a late signed contract can't be back tracked to the start of the season, the capfriendly site takes Nylander's cap hit of $6,962,366 divides it by the 126 days that he is on the roster and then mulitplies that daily cap hit of $55,257 by the 186 day season to get a yearly cap hit of $10,277,778. But the yearly cap doesn't actually actually exist for Nylander this season because he only played for 67.7% of the season and his actual cap hit that was applied to the Leafs this year was $6,962,366. The same as it will be for the next 5 years.

Another example of the daily cap hit multiplied by the numbers of days on the roster counting against is Muzzin, his 4M AAV only counted for 1.46M because he was on the cap for 68/186 days of the season.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I can't handle you having no clue what your talking about. Time to ignore.

You’re just wrong.

All four players had over 100 points during their elc before signing at or above 15% of cap.

I’m guessing you looked it up, found out you’re wrong, and responded by putting me on ignore. Lol

 

[Deebo]

The current cap space is 3.8 with Nylander counting as 6.96 for every season of his contract including this year. If he counted as 10.3 they would have had almost no cap space.

Just as a note to this, 3.7M of that 3.8M will go to pay Marner and Matthew's bonuses, which is why they couldn't use that space to further strengthen the team at the deadline.

 

[The Apologist]

Ok, I'm willing to learn. Here's my math and please tell me what is off

For the 2019 -20 season the Leafs have currently:
9 Forwards signed for $46.1 M
5 Defense signed for $23.8 M
2 Goalies signed for $5.75M
This totals $75.7 M (all numbers rounded to 1ooK)

Of those 9 forwards signed, none are named Marner, Johnsson, or Kapanen

Of those 5 defense signed, none are named Gardiner or Hainsey (so their salaries are already gone) however 1 of the D is named Justin Holl which may be problematic

Of the 2 goalies signed, one is named Garret Sparks which is definitely problematic.

(BTW Horton is not included anywhere in the numbers above)

Now I'm going to be very optimistic and go with a cap of $85.7 M (because why not?)

So let's recap.

Cap = $85.7 M

Leafs have committed $75.7 M to 16 players (2 of which are Holl & Sparks)

So that leaves $10M to sign Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen plus 4 others (2 F & 2D) to round out a 23 man roster.

But you argue "Brown and Zaitsev" (because Gards and Hainsey are already gone)

So sure.....let's magically get rid of their $6.6M

So now that leaves us $16.6M to sign Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen plus 6 others (3 F & 3D) to round out a 23 man roster.

Where have I gone wrong?

Assuming at least 10M of that goes to Mitch, its not looking pretty for the other 8 we need to sign

 

[Babcocks Marner]

Not trying to start an argument, but how do you calculate how overpaid a player is based on contract length ?

Like why is Matthews overpaid by 1m based on term, where does the 1m come from ?

Buying more UFA years always cost more. The reports are Matthews wanted close to 14 for 8 years, which makes him paid more than McDavid. He doesn't deserve that. Even Dubas confirmed that they settled on 5 years to get the AAV down.

The 1million is my own opinion. 10.5x5 is pretty fair for his production. 11.6x7 is a much more accurate worth for Matthews...... just my opinion. I am fine with giving him more than JT, even as RFA, but how much more has he earned over what JT has done in his career?

I already know I will be pis*ed with Marners contract...... but I love the team more than Mitch.... If he is over paid, I am not going to be a fan boy about it.

 

[egd27]

Assuming at least 10M of that goes to Mitch, its not looking pretty for the other 8 we need to sign

Well let's see......apparently my math is wrong

 

[ShaneFalco]

Kadri
Marleau
Zaitsev
Brown
Gardiner
Hainsey

Not leafs next year is my guess

 

[Bomber0104]

Kadri
Marleau
Zaitsev
Brown
Gardiner
Hainsey

Not leafs next year is my guess

You're going to be very disappointed!

 

[ShaneFalco]

You're going to be very disappointed!

Probably, but we'll see
Kadri stays if the rest go

Oh and one of AJ/kap gone too - probably Mango

 

[Nineteen67]

Ok, I'm willing to learn. Here's my math and please tell me what is off

For the 2019 -20 season the Leafs have currently:
9 Forwards signed for $46.1 M
5 Defense signed for $23.8 M
2 Goalies signed for $5.75M
This totals $75.7 M (all numbers rounded to 1ooK)

Of those 9 forwards signed, none are named Marner, Johnsson, or Kapanen

Of those 5 defense signed, none are named Gardiner or Hainsey (so their salaries are already gone) however 1 of the D is named Justin Holl which may be problematic

Of the 2 goalies signed, one is named Garret Sparks which is definitely problematic.

(BTW Horton is not included anywhere in the numbers above)

Now I'm going to be very optimistic and go with a cap of $85.7 M (because why not?)

So let's recap.

Cap = $85.7 M

Leafs have committed $75.7 M to 16 players (2 of which are Holl & Sparks)

So that leaves $10M to sign Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen plus 4 others (2 F & 2D) to round out a 23 man roster.

But you argue "Brown and Zaitsev" (because Gards and Hainsey are already gone)

So sure.....let's magically get rid of their $6.6M

So now that leaves us $16.6M to sign Marner, Johnsson, Kapanen plus 6 others (3 F & 3D) to round out a 23 man roster.

Where have I gone wrong?

I’m guessing the cap will be closer to 83.7 and don’t forget to add Kessel’s 1.2 million retention.

It’s going to be interesting to see how they make it work.

 

[Bomber0104]

Probably, but we'll see
Kadri stays if the rest go

Kadri stays regardless. Our only right shot d-man stays. And Marleau like it or not stays.

Gardiner and Hainsey walk. Brown traded.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Buying more UFA years always cost more. The reports are Matthews wanted close to 14 for 8 years, which makes him paid more than McDavid. He doesn't deserve that. Even Dubas confirmed that they settled on 5 years to get the AAV down.

The 1million is my own opinion. 10.5x5 is pretty fair for his production. 11.6x7 is a much more accurate worth for Matthews...... just my opinion. I am fine with giving him more than JT, even as RFA, but how much more has he earned over what JT has done in his career?

I already know I will be pis*ed with Marners contract...... but I love the team more than Mitch.... If he is over paid, I am not going to be a fan boy about it.

Alright because some posters say 3 mil some say 2 mil some say 1 mil.

I figured there was maybe some math behind it to show why he is overpaid, or some comparables that show that.

But that makes me question. Many posters and insiders consider McDavid's contract is a good deal at 12.5 (he could have got much more). If that is the case and Matthews is paid 900k less then that bargain number how can his contract be so bad ?

Has there been any players to sign since McDavid, that are better then Matthews ?

 

[18leafsfan18]

I’m guessing the cap will be closer to 83.7 and don’t forget to add Kessel’s 1.2 million retention.

It’s going to be interesting to see how they make it work.

Don't you also have to remove Horton's 5.3 from the equation, or add it to the cap to be more accurate ?

 

[The Apologist]

Well let's see......apparently my math is wrong

I dont think there is any doubt that big changes are coming. Unless we are playing only the big four going forward Id say Dubas was wrong. We cant and we wont keep ALL THREE.

 

[egd27]

I dont think there is any doubt that big changes are coming. Unless we are playing only the big four going forward Id say Dubas was wrong. We cant and we wont keep ALL THREE.

It seemed pretty obvious that when Tavares inked his $11M deal, that one of the "big 3" was probably going to be a cap casualty (and it wasn't going to be Matthews)

 

[Nineteen67]

Don't you also have to remove Horton's 5.3 from the equation, or add it to the cap to be more accurate ?

It’s not included in my number....incidentally I get 68,134,699 with Kessel, which leaves them with 14.9 million to spend.
The kicker is, the day they put Horton on LTIR , whatever their cap is that day is the max they can go that year. I think I understand that correctly.
If they can get rid of Marleau they should be good.

 

[18leafsfan18]

It’s not included in my number....incidentally I get 68,134,699 with Kessel, which leaves them with 14.9 million to spend.
The kicker is, the day they put Horton on LTIR , whatever their cap is that day is the max they can go that year. I think I understand that correctly.
If they can get rid of Marleau they should be good.

I assume their cap specialists would have gone over every possible situation and have some tricks up their sleeves or a plan going forward.

Definitely no doubt going to be tight and going to need some key signings/trades in there.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I assume their cap specialists would have gone over every possible situation and have some tricks up their sleeves or a plan going forward.

Definitely no doubt going to be tight and going to need some key signings/trades in there.

I'm still holding out hope that they have something worked out with Marleau. I mean like you say, these cap specialists would have seen this situation coming miles (or in this case years) away and having Marleau on the books would be beyond stupid. Unless Lou told the capologists to piss off and leave him alone because he knows what he's doing, hard to believe but who knows.

If Marleau's on the books this season, heads need to roll. Unless it's Lou in which case his head has of course already rolled across the border ...

 

[Crysis]

I'm still holding out hope that they have something worked out with Marleau. I mean like you say, these cap specialists would have seen this situation coming miles (or in this case years) away and having Marleau on the books would be beyond stupid. Unless Lou told the capologists to piss off and leave him alone because he knows what he's doing, hard to believe but who knows.

If Marleau's on the books this season, heads need to roll. Unless it's Lou in which case his head has of course already rolled across the border ...

This team has a history of being screwed by GM's who knew they were on the way out the door. JFJ comes to mind here.
That falls on the president so it wouldn't bother me if Shanny was canned over it.
He has to be accountable for something this egregious.

 

[ryno23]

it's only tight for 1 year with Marleau on the books. So maybe an AJ or Kappy has to be moved but the following year you will have cap room with JT/Marner and Matthews/Nylander anchoring the top 2 lines and then you have to fill out a wing spot with guys like Hyman, AJ or Kappy which one is left over. You have Bracco probably can step into a top 6 role. So Kadri has #3 C duties along with Moore.

I think the rest of the forwards can be filled internally next year or find another Ennis a vet guy looking to get their career back on track.

You can then use the funds on D. You will know if Sandin and Lillegren are ready for top 6 minutes.

It is not as bad as people think. We have a tight year this year and then after that in good shape