Salary Cap: Marner Contract Discussion XX - The Dog Days of August V3

[Dekes For Days]

But what if Kane had the smaller goalie equipment to shoot out (he's a much better shooter than Marner)? Icing rules (Kane's never liked physical contact)? 3 on 3 OT (Kane is one of the very best 3 on 3 players in the league)? An easier league to score at ES (ES scoring is higher now than it was during Kane's era)?

First off, those things weren't all around during the entirety of Marner's ELC, and I don't know why you think things like the icing changes made any meaningful difference.
Second, those things are all reflected in the minor ES scoring differences, so I'm not sure why you repeated it twice.
Third, there are things that worked in kane's favour too, including the free-wheeling space that the hard crackdown on penalties created at ES, the horrible 4th lines of the time (filled with slow, ineffective fighters), and the fact that he didn't have to deal with the level of video review and offside challenges that Marner did.

Is this Marner > Kane narrative taking any of this into account? Didn't ****ing think so, it's stupid and not even worth addressing.

The impact of all of these things on production pale in comparison to the impact of the PP differences.

In Kane's day there was 7 guys who cracked 90+ points. We had 14 players crack 90+ last year. It's a much different league.

Actually...

Over Kane's ELC, 22 players cracked 90 points in a season
Over Marner's ELC, 24 players cracked 90 points in a season.

 

[ZippityDooDa]

Not all players are Rielly, fans just wish they were. Hence the 'unreal expectations'.

He was just one example. Rielly, Dermott, Muzz, and likely Barrie are all players you won't hear getting criticized non-stop or anyone having "unreal expectations" about because they do their jobs without frequent glaring mistakes.
Gards got sh*t on because he messed up a lot so it was warranted in a lot of cases. Hainsey got some hate because he was getting old and slow. Same with all the other unreliable players egd27 mentioned prior.
Anyways..yea if you can't see what I'm getting at I'm stopping here.

 

[18leafsfan18]

First off, those things weren't all around during the entirety of Marner's ELC, and I don't know why you think things like the icing changes made any meaningful difference.
Second, those things are all reflected in the minor ES scoring differences, so I'm not sure why you repeated it twice.
Third, there are things that worked in kane's favour too, including the free-wheeling space that the hard crackdown on penalties created at ES, the horrible 4th lines of the time (filled with slow, ineffective fighters), and the fact that he didn't have to deal with the level of video review and offside challenges that Marner did.


The impact of all of these things on production pale in comparison to the impact of the PP differences.


Actually...

Over Kane's ELC, 22 players cracked 90 points in a season
Over Marner's ELC, 24 players cracked 90 points in a season.

He was talking about amount of players to do it in 1 year. Most amount of players over 90 pts in a year of Kane's ELC was 8 players. Highest of Marner's was 14 players (the year he did it).

The only reason those 2 numbers are so close is because only 1 player did it 2 years ago. If you take an average you will see the difference.

I assume you knew most of this, which is why you showed the data the way you did.

 

[MyBudJT]

So with your way of evaluating players, only the last season matters ?

All other stats, context isn't important ?

Of coarse when you throw out a ridicules example (like you did) you pick player 2.

That’s not what I said.

When evaluating young developing players, I think it’s important to more heavily weigh the most recent seasons. It’s reasonable to expect that What a player does in their U22 season is a better predictor of future success (U23 season) than what a player did in their U20 season.

League ranks:

Age 21: Marner #11, Kane #9
Age 20-21: Marner #19, Kane #15
Age 19-21: Marner #22, Kane #18

I’d also go as far as suggesting their is more skill and talent in today’s NHL than there was 10 years ago... which one would expect would result in more goals/points.

 

[18leafsfan18]

That’s not what I said.

When evaluating young developing players, I think it’s important to more heavily weigh the most recent seasons. It’s reasonable to expect that What a player does in their U22 season is a better predictor of future success (U23 season) than what a player did in their U20 season.



I’d also go as far as suggesting their is more skill and talent in today’s NHL than there was 10 years ago... which one would expect would result in more goals/points.

I agree the most recent season is most important, but you can't blatantly ignore the other seasons.

What if a player played way above their level for 1 season ? (then regress back to their average after)

It happens and that is the exact situation where you don't want to overpay someone.

In this example Kane had a much more consistent evolution of points. Marner's was a spike in production this past year, which you need to be more careful with.

Maybe Marner can repeat maybe he can't.

 

[Dekes For Days]

He was talking about amount of players to do it in 1 year. Most amount of players over 90 pts in a year of Kane's ELC was 8 players. Highest of Marner's was 14 players (the year he did it).

He said 7 for Kane. He was clearly using the last years of their ELCs only, despite the discussion being about their whole ELCs. This was clearly done because this was the year where there was the most 90+ point players for Marner and the least for Kane.

The only reason those 2 numbers are so close is because only 1 player did it 2 years ago. If you take an average you will see the difference.

The average for Marner is 8 per year.
The average for Kane is 7.33 per year.

Why are we using number of 90+ point players to suggest that Marner's numbers are inflated, but ignoring the years where there are few 90+ point players, which would under this theory mean his numbers were suppressed?

 

[MyBudJT]

I agree the most recent season is most important, but you can't blatantly ignore the other seasons.

What if a player played way above their level for 1 season ? (then regress back to their average after)

It happens and that is the exact situation where you don't want to overpay someone.

In this example Kane had a much more consistent evolution of points. Marner's was a spike in production this past year, which you need to be more careful with.

Maybe Marner can repeat maybe he can't.

Show me an example where a 94 point player in their U22 season or younger didn’t go on to be an elite level player for years to come...

There is no reason to be concerned with Marner... he’s been playing at the 95 point pace for his last 120 games or so... with and without Tavares... A 94 point season for Marner was what was expected....

 

[BoredBrandonPridham]

During those seasons, Toews was nowhere close to as good as tavares today (His ELC also).

Again, I'm not arguing there can be an argument made, but by looking at only points and only 1 season it doesn't really make the argument very valid.

Note the rate stats I'm providing are for their entire ELCs aggregated. The other poster you were talking to was referencing just the last season I think. I agree 1 season is never a good measuring stick for anything that involves Sh% and Sv%, but all ELC seasons aggregated together (2yrs Marner playing with Bozak), Marner produced well ahead of Kane taking into consideration ice time.

 

[18leafsfan18]

He said 7 for Kane. He was clearly using the last years of their ELCs only, despite the discussion being about their whole ELCs. This was clearly done because this was the year where there was the most 90+ point players for Marner and the least for Kane.


The average for Marner is 8 per year.
The average for Kane is 7.33 per year.

Why are we using number of 90+ point players to suggest that Marner's numbers are inflated, but ignoring the years where there are few 90+ point players, which would under this theory mean his numbers were suppressed?

I was just explaining what I thought the poster meant.

More players in general hit the 90 point mark in today's game. I think it was just a pretty simple suggestion.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Note the rate stats I'm providing are for their entire ELCs aggregated. The other poster you were talking to was referencing just the last season I think. I agree 1 season is never a good measuring stick for anything that involves Sh% and Sv%, but all ELC seasons aggregated together (2yrs Marner playing with Bozak), Marner produced well ahead of Kane taking into consideration ice time.

Alright, those stats I can agree with, if that's what they say (Comparing Marner w/Bozak vs Kane w/Toews).

Again, I never said Kane or Marner was better (the comparison is fairly close), just that comparing them 1 season vs 1 season isn't the right way to make that argument.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Show me an example where a 94 point player in their U22 season or younger didn’t go on to be an elite level player for years to come...

There is no reason to be concerned with Marner... he’s been playing at the 95 point pace for his last 120 games or so... with and without Tavares... A 94 point season for Marner was what was expected....

I don't think the 94 point season was expected in any way.

To think Tavares didn't excel Marner into a 94 point season is foolish.

 

[MyBudJT]

I don't think the 94 point season was expected in any way.

To think Tavares didn't excel Marner into a 94 point season is foolish.

It was very expected.

They certainly performed better than expected 5v5! I would have thought Marner would have had quite a bit more PP points, though. Just think, he could have had 110+ points had we got the PP opportunities we deserved and if our PP played the way they’re capable of...

 

[18leafsfan18]

It was very expected.

They certainly performed better than expected 5v5! I would have thought Marner would have had quite a bit more PP points, though. Just think, he could have had 110+ points had we got the PP opportunities we deserved and if our PP played the way they’re capable of...

He could have also had 70 points if he hadn't played with Tavares. There is no way to know either of those "ifs" because they didn't happen.

All these "ifs" don't really mean anything.

He will be compared to like players, not single seasons by like players or nitpicked stats from like players.

If he is compared to Kane I think that is fair, but to suggest he is better based on a single season (U22 as you like to put it) is a bit of a stretch.

 

[Martin Skoula]

He could have also had 70 points if he hadn't played with Tavares. There is no way to know either of those "ifs" because they didn't happen.

All these "ifs" don't really mean anything.

He will be compared to like players, not single seasons by like players or nitpicked stats from like players.

If he is compared to Kane I think that is fair, but to suggest he is better based on a single season (U22 as you like to put it) is a bit of a stretch.

They're going to use a 40 game stretch with Kadri to "prove" he can do it without Tavares, but completely ignore that most of those points came on the PP which was on the hottest streak it's been on in about a decade. If Marner's PPG 40 games are meaningful, so is JVR scoring at a near 50 goal pace for the same stretch of time.

Edit: like clockwork lol

 

[Gary Nylund]

He could have also had 70 points if he hadn't played with Tavares. There is no way to know either of those "ifs" because they didn't happen.

All these "ifs" don't really mean anything.

He will be compared to like players, not single seasons by like players or nitpicked stats from like players.

If he is compared to Kane I think that is fair, but to suggest he is better based on a single season (U22 as you like to put it) is a bit of a stretch.

If "ifs don't mean anything", why mention them?

You should check out Marner's scoring pace in the last season before Tavares arrived (hint, he wasn't playing with Tavares at the time), you might be surprised.

94 points wasn't "expected" but it wasn't a surprise either. To think that he'd have only scored 70 points had it nor been for Tavares is a massive stretch. Give the kid some credit, he's really good and he's been really good for some time now.

 

[18leafsfan18]

If "ifs don't mean anything", why mention them?

I mentioned that "if" because I was showing the other poster that I can just throw random scenarios out like he did.

It was very expected.

They certainly performed better than expected 5v5! I would have thought Marner would have had quite a bit more PP points, though. Just think, he could have had 110+ points had we got the PP opportunities we deserved and if our PP played the way they’re capable of...

You should check out Marner's scoring pace in the last season before Tavares arrived (hint, he wasn't playing with Tavares at the time), you might be surprised.

94 points wasn't "expected" but it wasn't a surprise either. To think that he'd have only scored 70 points had it nor been for Tavares is a massive stretch. Give the kid some credit, he's really good and he's been really good for some time now.

The poster just before you gave that pace some context.

They're going to use a 40 game stretch with Kadri to "prove" he can do it without Tavares, but completely ignore that most of those points came on the PP which was on the hottest streak it's been on in about a decade. If Marner's PPG 40 games are meaningful, so is JVR scoring at a near 50 goal pace for the same stretch of time.

It's generally the same people arguing that Matthews pace is not a number you can use, but Marner's pace at the end of that season is.

If you aren't one of those people I apologize, but the stats nitpicking on here is insane.

 

[MyBudJT]

He could have also had 70 points if he hadn't played with Tavares. There is no way to know either of those "ifs" because they didn't happen.

All these "ifs" don't really mean anything.

He will be compared to like players, not single seasons by like players or nitpicked stats from like players.

If he is compared to Kane I think that is fair, but to suggest he is better based on a single season (U22 as you like to put it) is a bit of a stretch.

You’re talking out of two sides of your mouth now....

First you claim that ‘IF Marner didn’t play with Tavares, he wouldn’t have scored 94 points”... then you back track and say “All these “ifs” don’t really mean anything.


I think you should take your own advice

 

[Suntouchable13]

He would have more pp time if the coaching staff didn't feel the need to split pp ice time with a much more inferior unit.

 

[Martin Skoula]

I mentioned that "if" because I was showing the other poster that I can just throw random scenarios out like he did.





The poster just before you gave that pace some context.



It's generally the same people arguing that Matthews pace is not a number you can use, but Marner's pace at the end of that season is.

If you aren't one of those people I apologize, but the stats nitpicking on here is insane.

At least the Matthews pace people apply context and separate ES and PP scoring for the most part. Marner was very average at ES for those 40 games, nothing to suggest he's a 94-point guy next year. The entire reason that production looks impressive is that he was part of a PP performing way beyond anything that that any team post-lockout has sustained for a full season.

 

[18leafsfan18]

You’re talking out of two sides of your mouth now....

First you claim that ‘IF Marner didn’t play with Tavares, he wouldn’t have scored 94 points”... then you back track and say “All these “ifs” don’t really mean anything.


I think you should take your own advice

I never said Marner wouldn't have scored that many if he didn't play with Tavares. We have no idea if he would have (Matthews, Kadri may have help him out too), but to say Tavares didn't excel some numbers is insane.

I don't think the 94 point season was expected in any way.

To think Tavares didn't excel Marner into a 94 point season is foolish.

 

[IPS]

If "ifs don't mean anything", why mention them?

You should check out Marner's scoring pace in the last season before Tavares arrived (hint, he wasn't playing with Tavares at the time), you might be surprised.

94 points wasn't "expected" but it wasn't a surprise either. To think that he'd have only scored 70 points had it nor been for Tavares is a massive stretch. Give the kid some credit, he's really good and he's been really good for some time now.

His run of 37 points in 33 games with the Kadri-Marleau line was largely in part of that insanely red-hot PP unit of Marner/Bozak/JVR/Kadri/Rielly.

 

[ACC1224]

I never said Marner wouldn't have scored that many if he didn't play with Tavares. We have no idea if he would have (Matthews, Kadri may have help him out too), but to say Tavares didn't excel some numbers is insane.

Safe to say for the foreseeable future Marner will either play with Matthews or Tavares so we can expect him to continue to put up elite numbers.

 

[18leafsfan18]

Safe to say for the foreseeable future Marner will either play with Matthews or Tavares so we can expect him to continue to put up elite numbers.

Yes we can, and I was not arguing that in anyway.

The main discussion was that comparing Kane to Marner based solely on a single year (their last ELC year) is not a good comparison of the 2 players.

Again, the discussion took a life of its own and went off the rails.

 

[MyBudJT]

Yes we can, and I was not arguing that in anyway.

The main discussion was that comparing Kane to Marner based solely on a single year (their last ELC year) is not a good comparison of the 2 players.

Again, the discussion took a life of its own and went off the rails.

How isn’t it a good comparison?

 

[Gary Nylund]

I mentioned that "if" because I was showing the other poster that I can just throw random scenarios out like he did.

The poster just before you gave that pace some context.

It's generally the same people arguing that Matthews pace is not a number you can use, but Marner's pace at the end of that season is.

If you aren't one of those people I apologize, but the stats nitpicking on here is insane.

No apology necessary. I've posted very little this summer and refuse to get too worked up about anything. I'm also a huge fan of both Marner and Matthews.

His run of 37 points in 33 games with the Kadri-Marleau line was largely in part of that insanely red-hot PP unit of Marner/Bozak/JVR/Kadri/Rielly.

I think it's safe to say that the brilliant play of Marner was a big part of why that PP was so hot.