Salary Cap: Marner contract discussion XVII (continued)

[therealkoho]

Tavares says nothing.... Or literally says nothing?

Same thing. Choose the one with fewer words.

This generation is aggravating.

iunno I would've said he really didn't say much

 

[Nineteen67]

I got good news and bad news .. Dubas broke the CBA.

The bad news - Dubas screwed up the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA paying top $$ for limited term.

The good news - Dubas didn't only screw the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA but he altered the entire NHL market landscape and screwed over every other team that is now trying to get their elite RFA signed.

That contract was an outlier.. Was being the key word in the sentence.

Before Dubas there use to be a system in the CBA where a team got 3 years cheap/rookie salary capped ELC years, then 3-5 year cost controllable RFA bridge deals at mid range money $$, then dynasty big money deals at top $$$ on 3rd contracts. See Toews and Kane for examples etc.

Then some GMs understanding how precious their core franchise players were to protect long term, decided to give them "Market Value" coming out of rookie contracts as RFAs, but locking them in for 8 years max term per CBA (buying 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years), skipping the 2nd contracts.. See McDavid and Eichel for examples etc.

Then along comes Dubas and gives Matthews elite money (2nd highest AAV in NHL history), but gets only 5 years (which is ridiculous and outlier) and putting Matthews as a UFA at age 26. So while McDavid and Eichel will still be locked in at $12.5 and $10 mil for multiple more years, Matthews will now demand +$15 mil from not only the Leafs, but 31 other teams as a UFA on the free agent market.

Now Marner and every other RFA wants to be paid big dollars for lowest term possible coming out of ELC, while protecting their costly UFA years for their 3rd contracts, to really strike it rich.

Using the Matthews contract blunder by Dubas, as the new norm and no longer the outlier!!

Some of the other teams are waiting on arbitration from their eligible players before signing their RFAs.

 

[Notsince67]

I'm talking more about giving him someone with the all world talent that helps exemplify his best strengths.

Marner is great. He was amazing last season and I definitely think he drove his line more often than not. I have no problems paying him alot of money and saying he's far better at this stage than Nylander.

But to act like Matthews played with anywhere close to the same level of talent as Marner did is hilarious. Matthews played with Marleau (who should be a 4th liner this season, two second-third liners in Kapanen/Johnsson and another 4th liner in Ennis).

Both great young players but last season Marner played with the much superior running mate.

Without a doubt Matthews would play better with better talent. Everyone would but Tavares wouldn't pop up as the obvious guy to see huge improvements unless he changed his style

 

[socko]

The contract that broke the CBA was Jack Eichel riding on the coattails of Connor McDavid.

I think we are at a moment where the NHL doesn't know what direction to go:

Are the Jeff Skinner, John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky Auston Matthews deals the first in a wave of massive dollar amounts for the better players? Or does the Sebastian Aho deal mean that RFA's like Laine, Marner, Rantanen and Point will come falling back to earth?

If the contracts keep trending up, does this mean you'll see more of those Jason Spezza veteran deals crater to league minimum?

If the RFA's start signing Aho type team friendly deals, do we see top heavy teams like the Leafs fall behind in the standings?

Both the Aho and Tervavainen contracts are excellent team friendly deals. Matthews and Nylander are ridiculous overpays, soon to be followed by Marner. At least with Matthews you could argue an offer sheet was possible, Nylander had nothing. Dubas is a joke.

 

[Mess]

Assuming your analysis is correct (and I don't (entirely) agree - I think the tipping point was Eichel/Draisatl), the fact that you say the entire league has been affected actually looks good on Dubas. While every team is on equal ground wrt salary cap issues, not every team can actually afford the big dollars for these new contracts, and particularly how the Leafs are front loading them. So again, assuming you're correct, Dubas kept his team on par salary cap-wise, while kneecapping numerous cash-strapped opponents in the process. So if you want to go this direction, I say Dubas is a genius.

Draisaitl and Eichel are both 8 year deals for top picks.

McDavid got 8 years and $12.5 mil and his teammate Draisatl got a % less than McDavid, but the term of max length 8 years never an issue.

If Matthews was getting $11.634 mil X 8 years and Marner was following this same strategy as above then the 8 year term would be locked in as automatic, and it would simply be down to money which is in the 10.5-$11 mil range for that term. Marner would already be signed if is was simply picking a $$# that both sides could live with over 8 years using Matthews as the comparable, if it was done right.

Here is the problem Matthews contract is 5 years in length at top dollar, so now Marner wants similarly to what AM got $$ for short term 5-6 year max deal.

Draisaitl just put up 50 goals and 105 points (4th in NHL scoring and 2nd in goals) on a 8 year contract @ $8.5 mil. That was Marner's ask last summer and now based on his production of 28 goals and 94 points Draisatl would be his ceiling ask today.. Draisaitl is also a 50 goal centre and not a winger like Marner also.

However now because of the Matthews contract debacle, it makes the Draisaitl deal for Marner look like chump change in comparison when Marner is demanding +$2 mil more AAV and 2-3 years less term.

Eichel and Draistail are examples of what to do, while Dubas has created an example of what not to do for everyone.

 

[weems]

Without a doubt Matthews would play better with better talent. Everyone would but Tavares wouldn't pop up as the obvious guy to see huge improvements unless he changed his style

I wasnt talking about Tavares specifically tho.

I said "if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares".

Maybe you took that as me saying Tavares or someone thats a shoot first player but I moreso meant giving him a world class winger whos on the same talent level as Tavares is.

Like putting Panarin or Wheeler on Matthews wing. I think his production would have jumped considerably higher under that circumstance vs playing with mid tier talent and arguably two scrubs.

 

[Notsince67]

They're often situational when applied to short sample sizes. In Tavares' case, there are no short sample sizes when looking at his playmaking ability. You don't turn Kyle Okposo into a 70-80 point player without elite playmaking.

You don't need to bend over backwards to diminish Tavares' abilities to pump your boy up.

That year, the biggest contributor of point movement was Okposo secondary assists...totally situational. You don't need to use bs to diminish Marner

 

[Stephen]

Eichel and Draistail are examples of what to do, while Dubas has created an example of what not to do for everyone.

What Dubas did with Nylander and Matthews on their 5 and 6 year deals are textbook examples of what were done for Stamkos, Tavares, Kane, Toews, Kessel, Doughty, Crosby and Malkin on their second deals.

In contract, signing a longer deal is no guarantee of success. Look at Subban. Now on his third team since he signed his 8 year deal.

 

[The Hanging Jowl]

Draisaitl and Eichel are both 8 year deals for top picks.

McDavid got 8 years and $12.5 mil and his teammate Draisatl got a % less than McDavid, but the term of max length 8 years never an issue.

If Matthews was getting $11.634 mil X 8 years and Marner was following this same strategy as above then the 8 year term would be locked in as automatic, and it would simply be down to money which is in the 10.5-$11 mil range for that term. Marner would already be signed if is was simply picking a $$# that both sides could live with over 8 years using Matthews as the comparable, if it was done right.

Here is the problem Matthews contract is 5 years in length at top dollar, so now Marner wants similarly to what AM got $$ for short term 5-6 year max deal.

Draisaitl just put up 50 goals and 105 points (4th in NHL scoring and 2nd in goals) on a 8 year contract @ $8.5 mil. That was Marner's ask last summer and now based on his production of 28 goals and 94 points Draisatl would be his ceiling ask today.. Draisaitl is also a 50 goal centre and not a winger like Marner also.

However now because of the Matthews contract debacle, it makes the Draisaitl deal for Marner look like chump change in comparison when Marner is demanding +$2 mil more AAV and 2-3 years less term.

Eichel and Draistail are examples of what to do, while Dubas has created an example of what not to do for everyone.

Your response was so predictable that I purposely didn't mention the 8 year terms. Yes, I know. I'm not a big fan of the Matthews contract and yes, it's worse than those other deals but neither idea has anything to do with my points that a) Dubas didn't start the contract inflation that's going on and, b) if the overpay started a trend that affects the entire league, it actually helps the Leafs overall.

 

[Mess]

Some of the other teams are waiting on arbitration from their eligible players before signing their RFAs.

Smart agents and RFA players are all waiting on Marner to go first, and set new upper limits for themselves as comparables as they go after, using his new contract to their own benefits. IMO

If I were an RFA player or a player agent that is what I would do to maximize my next contract potential.

Marner's contract is the 1st domino others are waiting on, because Dubas is very generous and this contract for Marner is going to punch and new hole in the salary cap level structure CBA, after Matthews just broke through the glass ceiling for Marner to emulate. Darren Ferris wisely convinced Dubas to allow Marner to go last, because he fully intended to use the Matthews contract against him in future dealings, and $11.634 for only 5 years (1 single UFA year), was beyond his wildest expectations as leverage for Mitch now.

If your Point or Rantanen and their agents right now and having the Draisaitl contract of $8.5 mil X 8 being used as a Team comparable ceiling for then, and then you watch Marner get $10.5 mil X 5/6 years using the Matthews comparable, by you going first your going to have some real problems of lost wages and opportunities.

The NHLPA loves Dubas, as they would all new trend setters. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire NHL players Union and Don Fehr director are 100% behind Marner encouraging him to stand strong and raise the bar for all players that go after him, as its only to the unions benefit for all if the next guy up sets new limits.

Nylander held strong and Dubas caved, and Matthews just created a whole new market of elite $$ for bridge RFA 2nd deals, and now its Marner's turn to wait out Dubas and carry the torch even higher for the players union.

 

[MyBudJT]

I wasnt talking about Tavares specifically tho.

I said "if he was given a winger in the same category as Tavares".

Maybe you took that as me saying Tavares or someone thats a shoot first player but I moreso meant giving him a world class winger whos on the same talent level as Tavares is.

Like putting Panarin or Wheeler on Matthews wing. I think his production would have jumped considerably higher under that circumstance vs playing with mid tier talent and arguably two scrubs.

You’re not wrong, but it goes both ways. Matthews probably had better linemates in his first two season with Nylander on the wing. It goes both ways...

 

[weems]

You’re not wrong, but it goes both ways. Matthews probably had better linemates in his first two season with Nylander on the wing. It goes both ways...

I agree with that.

But when talking about last season alone, Marner was put in the far better position. That was what I was orginally responding too, A link that showed each players points, p/60, g/60 etc from last season.

 

[IPS]

You’re not wrong, but it goes both ways. Matthews probably had better linemates in his first two season with Nylander on the wing. It goes both ways...

But he was playing top competition, which is being used to favor Marner.

So which is it? Does playing the lesser competition better favor production or does the better linemates better favor production?

 

[The Podium]

Smart agents and RFA players are all waiting on Marner to go first, and set new upper limits for themselves as comparables as they go after, using his new contract to their own benefits. IMO

If I were an RFA player or a player agent that is what I would do to maximize my next contract potential.

Marner's contract is the 1st domino others are waiting on, because Dubas is very generous and this contract for Marner is going to punch and new hole in the salary cap level structure CBA, after Matthews just broke through the glass ceiling for Marner to emulate. Darren Ferris wisely convinced Dubas to allow Marner to go last, because he fully intended to use the Matthews contract against him in future dealings.

If your Point or Rantanen and their agents right now and having the Draisaitl contract of $8.5 mil X 8 being used as a Team comparable ceiling for then, and then you watch Marner get $10.5 mil X 5/6 years using the Matthews comparable, by you going first your going to have some real problems of lost wages and opportunities.

The NHLPA loves Dubas and I wouldn't be surprised is the entire NHL players Union and Don Fehr director are 100% behind Marner encouraging him to stand strong and raise the bar for all players that go after him, as its only to the unions benefit for all if the next guy up sets new limits.

Nylander held strong and Dubas caved, and Matthews just created a whole new market of elite $$ for bridge RFA 2nd deals, and now its Marner's turn to wait out Dubas and carry the torch even higher for the players union.

Your posts are getting more ridiculous... Nylanders deal is fine, it’s a win win for both team and player when you look at contracts around the league

Matthews was a guaranteed OS target and Matthews knew it, Dubas screwed up on the term but at the end of the day he’s only a step below McDavid and his contracted needed to emulate that whether or not you agree.

Marner is different, he isn’t an OS target (at least not a 4x1st), he’s a small winger whose comparable are signed in the 8-10 mill range. Dubas won’t cave because he has all the leverage here which he didn’t in the other 2 cases. If Marner isn’t signed by training camp he is sitting the year and hurting his value going forward. He doesn’t have the luxury of a long hold out like Nylander, and he doesn’t have an OS out like Matthews would have.


Although with that said Marner needs to come in at 6x9-9.5 or 8x10-10.5 or Dubas dropped the ball

 

[Throw More Waffles]

This is not true.

This narrative needs to end.

There is absolutely no precedent for a 70 point career high forward signing for such a high cap percentage. NONE.

Claiming “he just gets hurt all of the time” is NOT a convincing argument otherwise.

 

[MyBudJT]

I agree with that.

But when talking about last season alone, Marner was put in the far better position. That was what I was orginally responding too, A link that showed each players points, p/60, g/60 etc from last season.

I still don’t understand why people use /60 to evaluate a season... if you’re evaluating who had a better season, shouldn’t the number of games factor into that?

 

[MyBudJT]

But he was playing top competition, which is being used to favor Marner.

So which is it? Does playing the lesser competition better favor production or does the better linemates better favor production?

Both are factors, don’t you agree?

 

[Throw More Waffles]

I got good news and bad news .. Dubas broke the CBA.

The bad news - Dubas screwed up the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA paying top $$ for limited term.

The good news - Dubas didn't only screw the Leafs salary cap with the Matthews contract for an RFA but he altered the entire NHL market landscape and screwed over every other team that is now trying to get their elite RFA signed.

That contract was an outlier.. Was being the key word in the sentence.

Before Dubas there use to be a system in the CBA where a team got 3 years cheap/rookie salary capped ELC years, then 3-5 year cost controllable RFA bridge deals at mid range money $$, then dynasty big money deals at top $$$ on 3rd contracts. See Toews and Kane for examples etc.

Then some GMs understanding how precious their core franchise players were to protect long term, decided to give them "Market Value" coming out of rookie contracts as RFAs, but locking them in for 8 years max term per CBA (buying 4 RFA years and 4 UFA years), skipping the 2nd contracts.. See McDavid and Eichel for examples etc.

Then along comes Dubas and gives Matthews elite money (2nd highest AAV in NHL history), but gets only 5 years (which is ridiculous and outlier) and putting Matthews as a UFA at age 26. So while McDavid and Eichel will still be locked in at $12.5 and $10 mil for multiple more years, Matthews will now demand +$15 mil from not only the Leafs, but 31 other teams as a UFA on the free agent market.

Now Marner and every other RFA wants to be paid big dollars for lowest term possible coming out of ELC, while protecting their costly UFA years for their 3rd contracts, to really strike it rich.

Using the Matthews contract blunder by Dubas, as the new norm and no longer the outlier!!

I fully agree with everything you just wrote.

I have a question though...

Why is it that when one HORRIBLE contract gets signed (Matthews), it becomes the new floor for future rfa’s...

Yet when a great contract is signed (Pastrnak, McDavid, Kucherov), it just doesn’t count as a comparable for some reason?

Wouldn’t the GM’s use the great contracts at leverage, while agents use the horrible contracts as leverage, and they’d meet in the middle at market value?

 

[supsens]

I fully agree with everything you just wrote.

I have a question though...

Why is it that when one HORRIBLE contract gets signed (Matthews), it becomes the new floor for future rfa’s...

Yet when a great contract is signed (Pastrnak, McDavid, Kucherov), it just doesn’t count as a comparable for some reason?

Wouldn’t the GM’s use the great contracts at leverage, while agents use the horrible contracts as leverage, and they’d meet in the middle at market value?

It’s not the floor for new RFA but it is the baseline for the size of checks the boss is giving people who work for the Toronto maple leafs,
and any person on this planet who works somewhere where they get paid for raw production would expect to get paid as much as the people they out produce. It would be extreamly upsetting if it happened working anywhere even the NHL

 

[Throw More Waffles]

It’s not the floor for new RFA but it is the baseline for the size of checks the boss is giving people who work for the Toronto maple leafs,
and any person on this planet who works somewhere where they get paid for raw production would expect to get paid as much as the people they out produce. It would be extreamly upsetting if it happened working anywhere even the NHL

So the precedent has been set that Dubas pays FAR more money than market value for his star players, due to the Matthews/Nylander dramatic overpayments.

What now?

This just goes on forever?

It’s impossible to be successful in the cap world if everyone is overpaid. So the leafs are just doomed to mediocrity for all eternity due to those overpayments?

What needs to happen for the leafs to start getting their players for fair market value, if not starting now with Marner?

 

[weems]

I still don’t understand why people use /60 to evaluate a season... if you’re evaluating who had a better season, shouldn’t the number of games factor into that?

Yes that should matter and I'm not even trying to say Matthews had the better season.

Marner definitely had the better season. He was more productive and stayed healthy for the entire season.

I just think a stat like p/60 and g/60 needs a little context when one player played with by far the better linemate than the other guy in the comparison.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Gotta factor in the usage too. Mitch plays primarily against oppositions' top lines while Matthews doesn't. Them having same p/60 implies Mitch is more competent at his job as his p/60 does not go down trying to keep oppositions' top line in check

Yes, let's factor in that Marner played with Tavares instead of two 40-point rookies; a difference that far outweighed the difference in quality of competition they faced.

And if we are factoring in quality of competition, Marner falls way behind over their ELCs. Not to mention the greater responsibilities in those match-ups as a C.

 

[Nineteen67]

Smart agents and RFA players are all waiting on Marner to go first, and set new upper limits for themselves as comparables as they go after, using his new contract to their own benefits. IMO

If I were an RFA player or a player agent that is what I would do to maximize my next contract potential.

Marner's contract is the 1st domino others are waiting on, because Dubas is very generous and this contract for Marner is going to punch and new hole in the salary cap level structure CBA, after Matthews just broke through the glass ceiling for Marner to emulate. Darren Ferris wisely convinced Dubas to allow Marner to go last, because he fully intended to use the Matthews contract against him in future dealings, and $11.634 for only 5 years (1 single UFA year), was beyond his wildest expectations as leverage for Mitch now.

If your Point or Rantanen and their agents right now and having the Draisaitl contract of $8.5 mil X 8 being used as a Team comparable ceiling for then, and then you watch Marner get $10.5 mil X 5/6 years using the Matthews comparable, by you going first your going to have some real problems of lost wages and opportunities.

The NHLPA loves Dubas, as they would all new trend setters. I wouldn't be surprised if the entire NHL players Union and Don Fehr director are 100% behind Marner encouraging him to stand strong and raise the bar for all players that go after him, as its only to the unions benefit for all if the next guy up sets new limits.

Nylander held strong and Dubas caved, and Matthews just created a whole new market of elite $$ for bridge RFA 2nd deals, and now its Marner's turn to wait out Dubas and carry the torch even higher for the players union.

There is a hard cap. The more Marner gets the less someone else makes.

 

[The Podium]

Gotta factor in the usage too. Mitch plays primarily against oppositions' top lines while Matthews doesn't. Them having same p/60 implies Mitch is more competent at his job as his p/60 does not go down trying to keep oppositions' top line in check

Teams generally pair their shutdown line and top pairing against Matthews while Babs matches the JT line + Top pairing against oppositions top line. They both have difficult usage but for different reasons.

 

[supsens]

So the precedent has been set that Dubas pays FAR more money than market value for his star players, due to the Matthews/Nylander dramatic overpayments.

What now?

This just goes on forever?

It’s impossible to be successful in the cap world if everyone is overpaid. So the leafs are just doomed to mediocrity for all eternity due to those overpayments?

What needs to happen for the leafs to start getting their players for fair market value, if not starting now with Marner?

That’s a double edge sword he does have to draw the line somewhere,
I’m not sure if picking your highest scoring player who still has room to improve and will probably want to stay forever as the guy to scorn is a good thing.
It’s a lot easier to sign him next time when he hits UFA if he is super happy compaired to deciding it’s payback time.
It’s also a good way to cause animosity between star players, humans get jelly fast